Champion Hurdle, 13-03-12

TheMilkyPirate

Zarkandar

From twitter:

Grandouet to undergo surgery on hind leg tonight. Henderson to update on running in Champion Hurdle prospects later. http://goo.gl/wRE7u

liamoreilly

...Probably off topic of Champion Hurdle...What result do you think there woulda been if Darlan didnt crash towards the end...thought he was travelling beautifully, and got the feeling hed have beaten Zarkander had he stayed up...
Fwiw, Hurricane fly is like big bucks but with a rocket up his ass for insurance...sex on 4 legs...

Colonel Sanders

Zarkandar

premierstone wrote: »

Hope this is tounge in cheek??

Hurricane Fly has won 10 grade ones for a start, secondly Solwhit is a damn good horse and was rated as high as 168. Hurricane Fly has also beaten everything that has been put in front of him and some of he's more illustrious victims include Binocluar, Kyber Kim, Oscar Whiskey, Peddlars Cross, Dunquib, Punjabi, Thousand Stars, Medermit, Go Native, Menorah etc etc all rated well over 160

I remember Russell saying something similar last year at a preview. Said people were knocking HF as he'd "only" been beating Solwhit. Russell pointed out how many Grade 1's he'd won and as he was his regular partner how good he thought Solwhit was

premierstone

Zarkandar

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I remember Russell saying something similar last year at a preview. Said people were knocking HF as he'd "only" been beating Solwhit. Russell pointed out how many Grade 1's he'd won and as he was his regular partner how good he thought Solwhit was

Exactly its a covenient argument for those who cant actually see with there eyes and judge a performance rather than just looking at the bare results and who was behind, and as you say Solwhit was a bloody good horse.

I had so many 'debates' with two other guys prior to last year, one was a peddlers man and the other a menorah fan, I got so infuriated for a finish I ended up having far more mony on Hurricane than I was really comfortable with, could barely watch the race, but boy was that one hell of a night!

Colonel Sanders

Zarkandar

Just looking at Timeform Top 10 lists

Assuming Oscar Whisky doesn't run they have Binocular 2nd top rated

klairondavis

Find it hard to see how a case can be made for Zarkandar against HF. How far would the Fly have win a Newbury handicap off 151? He'd win it in the style of Golden Cygnet. The Nicholls horse clearly stays well and finds plenty for pressure but he will be caught for boot going down the hill and unlike at Newbury, the horses who will be ahead of him turning in at Cheltenham won't be stopping. I think he'll struggle to even be the first Ditcheat horse home. Rock On Ruby has far stronger form in the book this season and is a better place prospect.

Realistically Binocular is the only horse you could see giving HF a proper race on a going day but he'd still need to improve a few lbs on his Champion Hurdle run in 2010 to get close to the champ. The Fly looks to have improved since last March. He settled much better at Punchestown and at Leopardstown and was visually devestating on both occasions. Ruby said last year that he'd have won easier had he not taken such a keen hold. If he settles this year he'll make this opposition look very ordinary.

premierstone

Zarkandar

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Just looking at Timeform Top 10 lists

Assuming Oscar Whisky doesn't run they have Binocular 2nd top rated

They also have Al Ferof rated ahead of Sprinter Sacre and Grand Crus which quite frankly is redicilous.

hucklebuck

Binocular

klairondavis wrote: »

How far would the Fly have win a Newbury handicap off 151?

What as a 5 year old, with a cough and work left in him?:rolleyes:

That was not his true running, he didn't look anywhere near as fit as he did at Cheltenham or Aintree and Nicholls said plenty of times he would come on a lot for the run and not to mention the cold.

newuser89

Other (please specify)

Zarkander proved his speed at Cheltenham last year.
When running away from unaccompanied and grandouet
Two speed horses .
He looked in need of the run the other day so should be interesting

RichieLawlor

Zarkandar

newuser89 wrote: »

Zarkander proved his speed at Cheltenham last year.
When running away from unaccompanied and grandouet
Two speed horses .
He looked in need of the run the other day so should be interesting

Cheltenham is not a speed track. Which completely negates your theory.

He outstayed the speed horses.

RichieLawlor

Zarkandar

premierstone wrote: »

They also have Al Ferof rated ahead of Sprinter Sacre and Grand Crus which quite frankly is redicilous.

Im on the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon aswell but Al Ferof undoubtably has the better pure form.

His Henry VIII win was franked when the runner up won a grade 1 since, his 3rd behind Somersby and Finians Rainbow is stronger than SS running all over French Opera.

They can't rate potential. And while SS may prove to be in a different league as yet he hasn't done anything to warrant a higher rating than Al Ferof (who, let's not forget was his superior over hurdles and outstayed him up the hill the only time they have met)

Fryern

Grandouet

Food for thought:-

HF - Stupid price 13/14 best. It's odds on he won't turn up for starters!

Winning time Champion Hurdle - The Fly 3m 53.6s full out Good going..............Binocular 3m 53.9s hacking up Good to Soft

You can still get 36/5 on Binocular.

I know where my money is (took 15/1 on Betfair last week and a load of 8-1 on Monday - Coral) and I will lay for a free ride.

I also repeat (posted elsewhere) I can't see Binocular winning on soft or heavy ground. His slick action needs good going ideally. Good news is Prestbury Park is usually good ground particularly in March. I hear they are about to start watering soon - gently chaps.

btw Binocular will replace Zarkandar imo as 2nd fav any moment. Most unlike a horse that is coughing will be anywhere near its best in 3 weeks time or make the race. Don't back Grandouet great lay yesterday. Won't run with stitches in his leg!

newuser89

Other (please specify)

Ok he outstayed then
But someone was talking about how he won't keep up with the speed horses when he clearly will based on last year.
Same track same distance,no reason why he would be done for toe as he proved he's capable last year

RichieLawlor

Zarkandar

newuser89 wrote: »

Ok he outstayed then
But someone was talking about how he won't keep up with the speed horses when he clearly will based on last year.
Same track same distance,no reason why he would be done for toe as he proved he's capable last year

Your right, he has the beating of last years 4 year olds. But there is a rather large 174 rated shadow that he will be following.

I'm not knocking Zarkandar, he's a very good horse. Last years triumph was obviously very good.

But, if he runs like he has in every race do far, ie off the bridle and being pushed along a good bit out he won't be staying on past stronger horses who won't be stopping in front. He MUST travel better, to win he MUST travel with Hurricane Fly and then he MUST pick up quicker than him from the last up the hill.

If you can see those things happening then back Zarkandar. If not, save your money

RichieLawlor

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

Food for thought:-

HF - Stupid price 13/14 best. It's odds on he won't turn up for starters!

Lol

I will back him at 4/5 to turn up with you if you want to lay me.

newuser89

Other (please specify)

I don't see him beating hurricane fly.
I just think he's better than people give him credit for.
I think he will beat the rest anyway

Juwwi

newuser89 wrote: »

Ok he outstayed then
But someone was talking about how he won't keep up with the speed horses when he clearly will based on last year.
Same track same distance,no reason why he would be done for toe as he proved he's capable last year

The CH on the tuesday is run on the old course which is more a speed test .

and then they change to the new course on the thursday and friday
which apparently is more of a test of stamina.

Colonel Sanders

Zarkandar

Odds on HF won't turn up??

I'll have as much odds against you'll lay he will turn up so. Tell you what I'll be generous, I'll take an even 1k

Colonel Sanders

Zarkandar

RichieLawlor wrote: »

premierstone wrote: »

They also have Al Ferof rated ahead of Sprinter Sacre and Grand Crus which quite frankly is redicilous.

Im on the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon aswell but Al Ferof undoubtably has the better pure form.

His Henry VIII win was franked when the runner up won a grade 1 since, his 3rd behind Somersby and Finians Rainbow is stronger than SS running all over French Opera.

They can't rate potential. And while SS may prove to be in a different league as yet he hasn't done anything to warrant a higher rating than Al Ferof (who, let's not forget was his superior over hurdles and outstayed him up the hill the only time they have met)

Completely agree

Let's not forget both Grand Crus & SS have a "p" beside their names. The Feltham form wasn't exactly boosted on Saturfay either

premierstone

Zarkandar

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Im on the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon aswell but Al Ferof undoubtably has the better pure form.

His Henry VIII win was franked when the runner up won a grade 1 since, his 3rd behind Somersby and Finians Rainbow is stronger than SS running all over French Opera.

They can't rate potential. And while SS may prove to be in a different league as yet he hasn't done anything to warrant a higher rating than Al Ferof (who, let's not forget was his superior over hurdles and outstayed him up the hill the only time they have met)

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Completely agree

Let's not forget both Grand Crus & SS have a "p" beside their names. The Feltham form wasn't exactly boosted on Saturfay either

I dont agree lads, I have analysed both of sprinter scares last two races on the clock and tbh its scary, the sectionals are frightening, and lest not forget he has broken two track records on the bridle. Al Ferof wont finish within 10 lenghts of him.

premierstone

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

HF - Stupid price 13/14 best!

I agree completely 13/14 is a stupid price, he should be more like 1/2 Fill yer boots, the horse is simply a superstar.

Slattsy

Zarkandar

premierstone wrote: »

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Im on the Sprinter Sacre bandwagon aswell but Al Ferof undoubtably has the better pure form.

His Henry VIII win was franked when the runner up won a grade 1 since, his 3rd behind Somersby and Finians Rainbow is stronger than SS running all over French Opera.

They can't rate potential. And while SS may prove to be in a different league as yet he hasn't done anything to warrant a higher rating than Al Ferof (who, let's not forget was his superior over hurdles and outstayed him up the hill the only time they have met)

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Completely agree

Let's not forget both Grand Crus & SS have a "p" beside their names. The Feltham form wasn't exactly boosted on Saturfay either

I dont agree lads, I have analysed both of sprinter scares last two races on the clock and tbh its scary, the sectionals are frightening, and lest not forget he has broken two track records on the bridle. Al Ferof wont finish within 10 lenghts of him.

Very good point. I've never been one to follow sectionals as such, but they are unbelievably ridiculously good. This horse is a monster.

Slattsy

Zarkandar

Grandouet now a major doubt for Cheltenham. Henderson is afraid he might need surgery on whatever caused him to miss Wincanton last weekend.
Why is it always Henderson !!??
Field is slowly starting to fall apart.

Sorry I don't have the link as I'm on my phone.

klairondavis

hucklebuck wrote: »

What as a 5 year old, with a cough and work left in him?:rolleyes:

That was not his true running, he didn't look anywhere near as fit as he did at Cheltenham or Aintree and Nicholls said plenty of times he would come on a lot for the run and not to mention the cold.

Nicholls has reported that he's already back cantering so he can't have been that sick of a horse. No denying that he will improve for the run, for the experience more than anything, but he has got to improve at least a stone and even that may not be good enough if HF has improved from Leopardstown.

Nicholls often gets his excuses in early before a run but the betting will nearly always be an accurate guide of how ready his horses are. Zarkandar was backed in the weeks before Newbury as if defeat was out of the question. IMO he was fairly straight and won't find a great deal more improvement at Cheltenham. I'd be shocked if he finishes ahead of HF.

mccarte2

Rock on Ruby

premierstone wrote: »

I dont agree lads, I have analysed both of sprinter scares last two races on the clock and tbh its scary, the sectionals are frightening, and lest not forget he has broken two track records on the bridle. Al Ferof wont finish within 10 lenghts of him.

Can't remember who it was (could have been Nick Luck or Hugh Taylor) that tweeted last week that sectional times for NH races can't be that accurate as the measurements / distances aren't exact and are pretty rough unlike the US Flat racing for example. Just worth bearing in mind more than anything else.

Fryern

Grandouet

premierstone wrote: »

I agree completely 13/14 is a stupid price, he should be more like 1/2 Fill yer boots, the horse is simply a superstar.

Your all missing the point the race is over 3 weeks away. You must factor in the chance he won't turn up. I say there is an even chance he won't so if your daft enough to take the current odds don't blame me. I've seen it all before.

Now 15-1 about Binocular and even 8-1 after the weekend was a snip. He's now best 34/5 and shortening. Odds checker now have him as second favourite.

Can't see HF beating him on good going and the difference is still 5-1+.

premierstone

Zarkandar

mccarte2 wrote: »

Can't remember who it was (could have been Nick Luck or Hugh Taylor) that tweeted last week that sectional times for NH races can't be that accurate as the measurements / distances aren't exact and are pretty rough unlike the US Flat racing for example. Just worth bearing in mind more than anything else.

Oh agree very much, the main problem with sectionals in NH is inaccurate distances of races and ground descriptions they need to be used merely as a pointer and in comparison to sectionals at that course that day, which of course is a very limited comparison, but some of the figures Im getting are soo good that I have very little doubt about there credibility, the most notable I guess is from he's Kempton run, where Finnians Rainbow won later on the card over the same distance but Sprinters mid race sectionals and from the third last to the last fence are something in the region of 10 lenghts better than Finnians Rainbow.

From what I have seen unless he falls or absolutely dies on the hill he is as much of a banker as Big Bucks. Hurricane Fly or Quevega.

premierstone

Zarkandar

Fryern wrote: »

Your all missing the point the race is over 3 weeks away. You must factor in the chance he won't turn up. I say there is an even chance he won't so if your daft enough to take the current odds don't blame me. I've seen it all before.

Now 15-1 about Binocular and even 8-1 after the weekend was a snip. He's now best 34/5 and shortening. Odds checker now have him as second favourite.

Can't see HF beating him on good going and the difference is still 5-1+.

I think its you that is missing the point all championship races are NRNB and have been for a while

So you think there is a 50% chance Hurricane Fly wont turn up, what exactly is this based on??

As for HF not beating Binocular on good ground, what is the evidence for this, because 9 lenghts was the gap in Punchestown last year and If either horse is on the upgrade Im pretty sure I know which one! Anyway Day 1 Cheltenham the ground will be Good to Soft.

Colonel Sanders

Zarkandar

I'll have an even grand HF turns up please

ft9

Zarkandar

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'll have an even grand HF turns up please

Me too