WARNING:Risk Of Disruption,High Ground Snow/Ice Likely For Northern Regions, Sat/Sun.

Wild Bill

MT's take:

SATURDAY ... Breezy to windy, turning colder in stages, hail showers rather frequent at first, then mixed wintry showers developing later and persisting overnight in some parts of the north. Temperatures steady 5-7 C then falling off to about 2-4 C late afternoon. Winds veering to NW 30-50 mph adding a chill.

SUNDAY ... Mixed wintry showers over some parts of the north early morning but otherwise clear intervals and quite cold despite a steady northwest wind in most places ... a few sheltered places well inland could see frost and lows of -2 C but otherwise lows 1-3 C ... sunny intervals mid-day, still quite cold as temperatures struggle up towards 5-7 C. Cloudy with rain or sleet arriving late, temperatures steady 4-6 C.

Can't quite see the "heavy snow and disruption for Northern regions" in that...but maybe I'm a bit slow :cool:

MONDAY ... Rain ending during the morning, turning considerably milder in strong southwest winds. Highs 10-13 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, mild, windy, showers ... lows 3-5 C and highs about 11-13 C.

OUTLOOK ... Some very mild weather appears to be heading in later next week and it could reach 15 C in some places well inland in a southwesterly flow.

But I can certainly sense warmth above the seasonal in that!

(And by late next week official winter is done and dusted)

Oscar Bravo

Cold over the weekend, but becoming milder with wet and windy weather from Monday onwards.

Saturday night will be cold with lowest temperatures of 0 to -2 degrees. There is the risk of some wintry showers along the north and northwest coasts, some of the showers will be of sleet or snow on higher ground. As winds become very light there is also the risk of some fog forming as well as a widespread frost.
It will be a cold and frosty start to Sunday, however it will be generally dry and bright. In the north it will be cloudier with some scattered showers. Highest temperatures of only 4 to 7 degrees in light winds. It will quickly become cold once again on Sunday evening after the sun goes down, with another widespread expected as temperatures fall to between 0 and -2 degrees. The cold weather will clear however overnight as cloud and rain move in from the Atlantic and those freshening southerly winds will bring higher temperatures. So on Monday there will be widespread heavy rain with fresh to strong southerly winds. Temperatures will improve and will range from 8 to 10 degrees. On Tuesday there will be more spells of rain with temperatures of 9 to 11 degrees. The wet and windy but mild weather will continue into Wednesday as well.

pistolpetes11

Weathercheck wrote: »

I can't believe my name is associated with the thread title :eek::o

Maybe a tad OTT! I didn't write it!

Haha nor I , Ive been on the driving range most of the week :pac:

davidsr20

How come mt hasn't mentioned any of this snow for the weekend?

Oscar Bravo

Time to lock thread i think.

Redsunset

I changed the title and said it in a previous post. I don't see anything wrong with it. I was specific bout mentioning high ground in the north feeling the brunt in a post and when Met Eireann and UK Met mentioned about lower levels too I upgrade the title. the word RISK highlights only a possibility, not set in stone. To be honest I think parts of the north will experience a good taste of snow with showers piling up.
I put the Risk in this thread because Weathercheck highlighted it as one to watch, it was a relatively new thread and did not feel a new one was warranted when Darkman2 started a new Snow thread for Sat.
That is all

Previous post.

Oscar Bravo

Fair enough Red Sunset.

Deep Easterly

Wild Bill wrote: »

Note "very cold" is maxima of 5 to 9C (seasonal average)

I'm, like, soooo excited :rolleyes:

A very pragmatic forecast, and rightly so I think.

Wild Bill, a little experiment for you: Blow steadily on the back of your hand and you will feel a small cooling effect. Now, give the back of your hand a good, slobbery lick then blow on it again with the same vigor as you did the first time and it will feel even colder.

The forecast temps for saturday are not exciting for sure, but are likely to coincide with some impressively low relative humidity values that are forecast follow in behind the cold front: (forecast RH for 15hrs Saturday)




This will help not only to lower dew point temps, but also will serve to increase the dewpoint depression, which is the measure of the difference between the actual air temperature and dew point temperature. The wider the dew point depression, the greater the chance that evaporation will occur; and since we humans are made up of about 70% water and sweat like pigs even on seemingly cold days, then we will experience the chill of evaprotive cooling on our skin, pretty much like in the little experiment above, regardless of the actual air temperature. So it will basically feel colder than the forecast temps suggest and all the more so when you include the 'wind-chill' effect on top of this as well.

Edit: Just to add a chart showing the temperature and dewpoint temperature forecast for Wild Bill's home place for this coming Saturday. A high 'dewpoint depression' is expected during the afternoon, which will make it feel pretty nippy despite the near normalness of the actual air temperature.


Source: yr.no

Dotsie~tmp

redsunset wrote: »

I changed the title and said it in a previous post. I don't see anything wrong with it. I was specific bout mentioning high ground in the north feeling the brunt in a post and when Met Eireann and UK Met mentioned about lower levels too I upgrade the title. the word RISK highlights only a possibility, not set in stone. To be honest I think parts of the north will experience a good taste of snow with showers piling up.
I put the Risk in this thread because Weathercheck highlighted it as one to watch, it was a relatively new thread and did not feel a new one was warranted when Darkman2 started a new Snow thread for Sat.
That is all

Previous post.

Hmm you seem to have highlighted everywhere where noboy lives. Anyway a mild Ph soap with some hot water will clean that egg right up.

Edit
BANNED for 7 days, Posters history suggests they have hardly ever anything good to say on this forum. So is Trolling.

blackius

Probably very few showers flowing in off the Kerry coast into west cork,looking at this in more detail and even less chance on the Wicklow mtns.
Up on the high ground any rogue shower in Wicklow will be snow.
Down in cork and Kerry, given the flow will be off the Atlantic, I'd be very surprised if there weren't enough showers to give at least a dusting on the mountains.

As for Ulster/north connaught ...something a tad more significant is likely and there should be guaranteed hill snow cover for the Sunday stroll especially in donegal,sligo and mayo.

Redsunset

UK Met Warning

Sleet and snow showers will extend from the northwest on Saturday and last through Saturday night into Sunday morning. These are likely to lead to widespread ice developing on untreated surfaces. In addition some 2-5cm of snow is likely to accumulate locally away from immediate north and west facing coastal fringes. Over Northern Ireland there is a risk that 5-10cm of snow could accumulate in places on ground above about 200m. The public should be aware that this could lead to some disruption to travel.
The public is advised to take extra care.



Every thing I highlighted in post, even mentioned the word disruption that was frowned upon in thread title.

davidsr20

Looks like the north will get it all as usual, I'd be so happy with even a day of snow now

ninebeanrows

I just thought it sounds a bit alarmist for a temporary thing.

Although it is very likely that Saturday will be the best chance most people have had this winter to catch a passing snow shower during the day. Wintry showers will turn widespread in the afternoon and you could catch a mini blizzard; but it is highly unlikely to stick for any length of time away from northern mountains and overnight in lucky spots.

Redsunset

Well temporary or not it still needs to be addressed for health and safety reasons and it's the Met Professionals duty to issue the warning and they have done so.

snowstreams

Im heading in the right direction so by going to Mayo this evening. I'll probably take a stroll up one of the smaller mountains on Saturday or sunday. Unless of course there is too much snow to drive to the foot of the mountains

average_runner

The title of this thread is very misleading. Should just say showers for the north of the country on high ground.


There will be no major disruption for the rest of Ireland. If you went by some the titles on this form this year you would of been very disappointed.


I think what we learnt over last few weeks take everything with a pinch of salt unless it comes from Su.

Harps

average_runner wrote: »

The title of this thread is very misleading. Should just say showers for the north of the country on high ground.


There will be no major disruption for the rest of Ireland. If you went by some the titles on this form this year you would of been very disappointed.


I think what we learnt over last few weeks take everything with a pinch of salt unless it comes from Su.

What are you on about? The title clearly states high ground and northern regions.

There's plenty of high ground around here with some major roads including the main Letterkenny/Sligo and Derry/Belfast roads likely to be affected so safe to say there will be disruption. A good chance snow will fall to low levels as well and even if it doesn't stick for long it will create hazardous driving conditions.

Rebelbrowser

Harps wrote: »

What are you on about? The title clearly states high ground and northern regions.

There's plenty of high ground around here with some major roads including the main Letterkenny/Sligo and Derry/Belfast roads likely to be affected so safe to say there will be disruption. A good chance snow will fall to low levels as well and even if it doesn't stick for long it will create hazardous driving conditions.

Agreed. And it could be more extensive than that. To be honest I fancy some snow showers for anywhere west of a line going from Limerick to Belfast. In fact if you take the 12z GFS precipitation chart literally (I know) we are all quids in for snow!

Seriously, a forecast of the possibility of snow is not a forecast of snow, let alone heavy snow - just like a forecast of possible high winds is not a forecast of high winds, let alone a hurricane. Its not a crime to suggest there might be snow. And its fun too.

Redsunset

I think it's a case of, If it's not happening in my back yard, I don't want to know attitude round here. I can't be that mad if UKMET issued practically same warnings. Yeah it'll be very brief and won't affect a large chunk of the country but it's still a danger for anyone traveling on the higher ground up north, with ice as I mentioned a big danger. The problem is ,it's not the snowmageddan many of us craved for in recent months.

Su Campu

I think for northern regions this will be an event, but for others we're talking a cold raw day with scattered wintry showers, especially on high ground. We should see some widespread sferics over the ocean off the North coast.

Regarding whether any snow will stick we need to look at ground temperatures. We've had such a mild run of it at late with mild nights that the ground has a fair amount of warmth stored in it. As the cold front will be passing during the daylight hours tomorrow, the ground will remain warm during tonight due to the cloud cover. The first snow to fall will have to get to work cooling the ground down to a level that will allow further snow to stick, but this requires prolonged snowfall, not just short sharp showers. So it may be that although some snow may fall from the sky, it will instantly melt on the ground and should not cause a problem. After dark the ground will cool quickly and it will make it a lot easier for the snow to accumulate, but by that state pressure will be rising from the west and showers will be becoming lighter overland. So overall it will probably turn out that the areas to see accumulations will be coastal areas of the north and northwest (and of course higher ground), plus higher ground further south.

Su Campu

We already have that comma feature I spoke of off Iceland this evening, and this should move southeastwards towards Scotland/Ulster by this time tomorrow. Still not sure Ulster will see a whole lot from it, more likely Scotland.

Sponge Bob

Su Campu wrote: »

We already have that comma feature

http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/CMs/Comma/structure.htm

Basically it may provide a strong feed of moisture bearing cloud in a cold system which is otherwise rather dry

A Comma is a very prominent cloud feature developing and existing in cold air. There are several similar phenomena within cold air: One of them is Enhanced Cumulus cloudiness (see Enhanced Cumulus ). Also a ring of vortices, crescent, oval, solid cloudiness, multiple deep or shallow bands, single deep or shallow bands or swirls in cumulus streets can all be found in cold air. In order to distinguish the Comma from other features in cold air, the Comma cloudiness is defined as a small to meso-scale cloud spiral consisting of white (i.e. cold) cloud cells partly overlaid by cirrus shields. In most cases the strongest convection can be found in the Comma tail, but sometimes enhanced convection can also be found in the Comma head. In a few cases the Comma head and tail are separated by a narrow cloud-free area or only connected by low clouds (although this may not be apparent during the whole life time of the system). The scale of a Comma lies between 200 and 1000 km, i.e. much smaller than a fully developed depression or a cyclone.

Wild Bill

Met Eireann forecast.....no mention of any snow atall atall tomorrow - "wintry showers " over northern hills is as close as they get :cool:

darkman2

Hi all,

Rain clearing southeastward early on may give a brief period of sleet or snow locally before clearing. By mid morning snow showers will be getting into the north and northwest of the country and these will become widespread across the northern half of the country in the afternoon (roughly north of a line from north Wicklow across to Galway). Heavier snow showers in northern counties will probably leave temporary accumulations at low levels. They probably won't be heavy enough futher south nor frequent enough. Higher ground in the northern half of the country (a line from north Wicklow across to Galway) can expect between 5 and 10cm of snow accumulation. During the evening showers will die out in most places but Ulster will see heavier showers for a time tomorrow night and 3 - 5cm's is easily possible on low ground there.


That's the outline of the current model forecasts. But we have to turn our attention to the high resolution short term models for more specific information.

Here is the 12z UKNAE forecast precipitation for tomorrow.

davidsr20

Wonder will be see a flake or two in Craughwell Galway

redsteveireland

davidsr20 wrote: »

Wonder will be see a flake or two in Craughwell Galway

Looks like we are in the firing line for some showers, accumulations are a different story. We live in hope.

km79

redsteveireland wrote: »

davidsr20 wrote: »

Wonder will be see a flake or two in Craughwell Galway

Looks like we are in the firing line for some showers, accumulations are a different story. We live in hope.

Sure you slept through the last "snowstorm" we had LOL

redsteveireland

km79 wrote: »

Sure you slept through the last "snowstorm" we had LOL

Ha, some people have great memories!:D

irish1967

Snow? I'm back. Lol.

Deep Easterly

First signs of the actual cold front showing up along the western seaboard now with Belmullet gusting up to 41kts on the 12am reports. This cold front passage may actual be of more interest for those of away from the north than anything that tomorrow has to offer with the potential for some sharp bursts of rain and squally winds in places as it passes over the country later tonight.

http://mathsci.ucd.ie/met/mcc-rain-d2.html

redsteveireland wrote: »

Ha, some people have great memories!

or great imaginations.. !!!