WARNING:Risk Of Disruption,High Ground Snow/Ice Likely For Northern Regions, Sat/Sun.

Wild Bill

K_1 wrote: »

Pictures from Cavan:

These are some of the best snow pics I've seen - reminds me of that Japanese "snow alley" one.

darkman2

Hi all,

On Saturday morning a cold front will sweep south eastward introducing much colder northwesterly winds. There will be rain with backedge snow for a time and then showers will be fairly widespread through the day. Heavy snow showers will occur in the west and north with accumulations likely there. Snow showers elsewhere will be less frequent. Feeling bitter. A very cold day with temperatures no better then 3 - 5c generally. Colder where showers are frequent and snow tends to settle. A very cold night will follow with widespread ice and frost.

Speak Now

Darkman Vs Met Eireann

"During Friday night or Saturday morning the rain will become heavy for a time and will clear Southeastwards by Saturday afternoon.
Sunny spells and showers will follow, most of the showers in the north and northwest. Fresh northwesterly winds will set in with this clearance and it will turn colder.
For Saturday night, showers of rain or hail will persist in the north and northwest with some wintry fall on hills. Over the rest of the country it will be mainly dry but very cold and frosty with some icy patches"

M.T forecast similar to Met Eireann as well.

Victor Meldrew

Do you see this as a one day wonder or do you see anything "bedding in" for the weekend.

Do you see this as a case of "get your camera ready for a quick snap before it melts" as per Dec 17th this year or "transport hell" snow?

Fair play to you for putting your colours to the mast / getting off the fence.

Speak Now

00z GFS



00z ECM



Toppler i guess, cold and dry on Sunday with milder south westerlies for Monday.

Speak Now

After all the blocking uncertainty it seems the ensembles have finally got a better grip on things. All most all members in agreement out to T144 on latest GFS. Operational pretty much following the mean. The dip in the graph really shows up the northern toppler.

MrFrisp

Latest update from M.E. Looks like it won't last very long..



3 Day Outlook
Thursday night will be mild and cloudy with fresh west to southwest winds. Outbreaks of rain will affect Ulster, Connacht and West Munster but other areas will be dry apart from a little drizzle. <br>Gradually during Friday the rain will sink Southwards to remaining areas and it will stay rather mild and windy. <br>During Friday night or Saturday morning the rain will become heavy for a time and will clear Southeastwards by Saturday afternoon. <br>Sunny spells and showers will follow, most of the showers in the north and northwest. Fresh northwesterly winds will set in with this clearance and it will turn colder. <br>For Saturday night, showers of rain or hail will persist in the north and northwest with some wintry fall on hills. Over the rest of the country it will be mainly dry but very cold and frosty with some icy patches. <br>Sunday will be a mainly dry cold day with sunny spells. <br>It will turn frosty for a time early on Sunday night but wet and windy weather wil spread from the Atlantic overnight and it will become milder again. <br>The early days of next week will remain unsettled with further spells of rain or showers and near normal temperatures.






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pauldry

Victor Meldrew wrote: »

Do you see this as a one day wonder or do you see anything "bedding in" for the weekend.

Do you see this as a case of "get your camera ready for a quick snap before it melts" as per Dec 17th this year or "transport hell" snow?

Fair play to you for putting your colours to the mast / getting off the fence.

IMO I think it will be a few hour event

Sponge Bob

While it seems possible graupel or even snow coud fall north of a line from Sligo-Dundalk it would seem highly unlikely it will be any more than rain or sleet south of that line.

ednwireland

Weather forecast: Northern Ireland

Day 3 to 5

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Rain at times on Friday, then turning colder on Saturday with sunny spells and blustery showers. Cold overnight on Saturday, but mainly dry and sunny on Sunday, although rain later.

uk met office

John mac

Saturday - Snow showers

I Know you are right. (didn't say what saturday,, :D:D)

Redsunset

Please try to keep further Chat posts about snowfall potential the weekend. I've deleted a couple of needless ones.

While I'm not jumping for joy myself at the risk it's still something to monitor because there could actually be some accumulations on higher ground the further north one goes come Saturday night. Not set in stone but consider it a watch as colder air digs in behind the front. As for low lying areas I wouldn't rule out a wintry mix. Further model guidance will beef up the forecast accuracy as we get nearer the time.

davidsr20

When are we talking for this breef cold spell , sat/sun?

Redsunset

Saturday into Sunday with showers then dying out.

All depends how quick the cold can catch up with the front during Saturday. Back edge wintriness a possibility.

sunbabe08

never saw that snow down in cork, i would remember it so.

Redsunset

sunbabe08 wrote: »

never saw that snow down in cork, i would remember it so.

Unfortunately it looks like your not going to see a whole lot for a while. After this brief glancing cold at the weekend which shouldn't affect you,the signs are not good for a while. Embrace the Atlantic.

sunbabe08

redsunset wrote: »

Unfortunately it looks like your not going to see a whole lot for a while. After this brief glancing cold at the weekend which shouldn't affect you,the signs are not good for a while. Embrace the Atlantic.

embraced it about 2 weeks ago:(

Sponge Bob

sunbabe08 wrote: »

embraced it about 2 weeks ago:(

If you embrace a weekend in Donegal you might be in luck...cheaper than flying to Tromso for a fix Sunbabe. You may have to bring boots too...but there should be some pickings.

Sponge Bob

The Eagle Says "Rain" on Saturday.....on Radio 1 Just Before 6

Redsunset

Yes rain for most but I think possible snow for higher ground towards the north as front clears.

Sponge Bob

I agree with you Red. The Eagle never even mentioned Wintry showers though.

Redsunset

Specifics can't be certain yet and you would have to favour the likes of Donegal highlands and the other usual suspects for any accumulation that might cause dangerous driving conditions as it should freeze on top of any snowfall. Lower down a wintry mess but as ground will be wet,ICE would be the main hazard. We shall see.

If nothing else it's something to talk about.

Rebelbrowser

redsunset wrote: »

Specifics can't be certain yet and you would have to favour the likes of Donegal highlands and the other usual suspects for any accumulation that might cause dangerous driving conditions as it should freeze on top of any snowfall. Lower down a wintry mess but as ground will be wet,ICE would be the main hazard. We shall see.

If nothing else it's something to talk about.

Im posting this on the basis of charts im looking at on the phone so forgive if wrong but IF the present gfs came off wouldn't it be a lot better than that for snow?

darkman2

Just a quick overview of my thoughts on the weekend on the brief cold snap.


On Friday night a band of rain will move southeastward across the country clearing the southeast early Saturday morning. This could give sleet and snow on it's back edge but it would be brief, no more then an hour or so of wintry precipitation. At the same time showers will already be packing into the west and north. These will be snow showers away from immediate Atlantic coasts where some hail is also likely. These showers will become widepread and will be frequent in the west and north. Less frequent further east and south where there will be good clear periods between showers. Temperatures will range 3 - 6c generally - it will turn colder as the day progresses and where showers are frequent and heavy temperatures will struggle above freezing and this is where accumulations of snow are likely to occur in the west and north. The showers will probably be too infrequent and less heavy in the east and south for anything more then temporary accumulations. Saturday night will see futher snow showers, widespread for a time, before dieing back later in the night to north and west facing coasts. A very cold night with temperatures widely well below freezing, a sharp frost and icy patches. Where snow has accumulated on Saturday it will freeze and this could lead to poor driving conditions in those areas. Sunday will be another cold day with temperatures of 3 - 5c generally and frost and ice will be slow to clear. A dry day. Sunday night again very cold and remaining cold for much of Monday though probably turning a little milder later in the day.


So basically - Saturday, very cold, snow showers (settling snow mostly in the west and north) - Sunday, very cold, dry - Monday, starting cold, dry and a little milder later.

Wild Bill

darkman2 wrote: »

So basically - Saturday, very cold, snow showers (settling snow mostly in the west and north) - Sunday, very cold, dry - Monday, starting cold, dry and a little milder later.

I have to quibble with the idea that mid-Feb maxima of 3-5C is very cold; given that average maxima for the period range about 7-9C.

But at best we are looking at, what? A bit of sleet at sea level and maybe some snow showers briefly sticking on high ground in the Northwest; probably nothing of note in Dublin - maybe not even an air frost if the NW wind persists?

Su Campu

Some snow should make it to sea level in the north, and with -40 °C T500s near Scotland we should see some more organised comma systems. Some more mixed showers further south, dying out in the evening. A harsh frost Saturday night, but I think high cloud will prevent serious frosts Sunday and Monday nights.

Rebelbrowser

Wild Bill wrote: »

darkman2 wrote: »

So basically - Saturday, very cold, snow showers (settling snow mostly in the west and north) - Sunday, very cold, dry - Monday, starting cold, dry and a little milder later.

I have to quibble with the idea that mid-Feb maxima of 3-5C is very cold; given that average maxima for the period range about 7-9C.

But at best we are looking at, what? A bit of sleet at sea level and maybe some snow showers briefly sticking on high ground in the Northwest; probably nothing of note in Dublin - maybe not even an air frost if the NW wind persists?

I suspect what will actually come to pass will be as you describe but the gfs upto 12z (haven't seen 18z) would be better than that.

Su Campu

ECMWF thickness for midday Saturday, showing 520 dam in Ulster, well cold enough for low level snow there.

Source: http://www.sar.sardegna.it/servizi/meteo/analisi.asp

Redsunset

well going by tonight's output then there perhaps is a more serious need of alert for significant snow accumulations on high ground in Ulster, North Leinster and parts of Connacht. Ice forming on low level sprinkle would be my main concern too. Showers could gang up creating prolonged spells.

davidsr20

redsunset wrote: »

well going by tonight's output then there perhaps is a more serious need of alert for significant snow accumulations on high ground in Ulster, North Leinster and parts of Connacht. Ice forming on low level sprinkle would be my main concern too. Showers could gang up creating prolonged spells.

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