beef price tracker

visatorro

got cheque today from factory. 2.80 a kg fr a couple of well fleshed cows. 1.70 for a couple of light heifers that calved in spring. one of the cows calved a year ago, the other january

blue5000

Anyone know what cow prices are like for next week?

simx

blue5000 wrote: »

Anyone know what cow prices are like for next week?

Heard today of possible 5c cut again next week, this week it's circa 2.90/3€ Os and 2.80 PS

Farmer Pudsey

Reading Darren Carthy In journal today. There are 86,626 extra cattle killed as of end of last week compared to this time last year. As of Jan this year there was supposed to be 100K extra cattle in the slaughter age group. Even if there are anomaly's in the system extra cows, or extra heifers not used as replacements cattle will get very scare very fast. I be carrying cattle as long as possible for rest of year. I be getting them into FS 4 and not worrying about over age.

Not sure how long the 4-6 extra/week will carry on but the kill will have to slow soon. At most at this stage allowing for anomaly's in system there is 35K extra cattle in system to end of year and I do not think there is that many. I would watch figure for next few weeks and if kills continue's I holding as long as possible.

Muckit

Could you trust that Galway lad though?

hope you are right re kill puds. It would certainly go against the typical price curve.

Farmer Pudsey

Muckit wrote: »

Could you trust that Galway lad though?

hope you are right re kill puds. It would certainly go against the typical price curve.

Loads of farmers made serious money last year with cattle killed in late May and June. I think a lot of farmers have pushed cattle hard this spring to kill in this timeframe. Along with that we had a great spring if under stocked cattle must be up on 100kgs ahead of last year. Cows were the same last year as well. The cow and heifer kill is very strong it could be people exiting sucklers or it could be those farmers pushing out these cattle.

It is a matter to wait and see now . It might happen faster than we think. Loads of farmers to claim DA have to have farm stocked at low levels for six months. These farmers will not be selling until October at the earlist. The big question is for how long the kill will stay above 2013 levels.

larrymiller

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Loads of farmers made serious money last year with cattle killed in late May and June. I think a lot of farmers have pushed cattle hard this spring to kill in this timeframe. Along with that we had a great spring if under stocked cattle must be up on 100kgs ahead of last year. Cows were the same last year as well. The cow and heifer kill is very strong it could be people exiting sucklers or it could be those farmers pushing out these cattle.

It is a matter to wait and see now . It might happen faster than we think. Loads of farmers to claim DA have to have farm stocked at low levels for six months. These farmers will not be selling until October at the earlist. The big question is for how long the kill will stay above 2013 levels.

Hope your correct.
But i have a question,

If the oversupply is going to slow down in a few months or so, And we've been in This situation for a while now, why are the factories putting serious pressure on prices now? Why havent they done this at the start? Am I missing sonething?

Farmer Pudsey

larrymiller wrote: »

Hope your correct.
But i have a question,

If the oversupply is going to slow down in a few months or so, And we've been in This situation for a while now, why are the factories putting serious pressure on prices now? Why havent they done this at the start? Am I missing sonething?

TBH they often do this towards the end of a glut try to drop to continue on supply and flush out cattle also to try to start from a lower price when the glut ends. Dropping prices too soon in April would have discouraged finishers from filling sheds for cattle to kill in June.

The real question is for how long will kill stay 6K ahead of last year.

coolshannagh28

One possible variable is that since the horsemeat affair our processors have lost market share hence the vicious campaign to drive prices down and the possibility that the 30k number on weekly kill doesn't hold any more

larrymiller

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

TBH they often do this towards the end of a glut try to drop to continue on supply and flush out cattle also to try to start from a lower price when the glut ends. Dropping prices too soon in April would have discouraged finishers from filling sheds for cattle to kill in June.

The real question is for how long will kill stay 6K ahead of last year.

Good answer

willfarmerman

coolshannagh28 wrote: »

One possible variable is that since the horsemeat affair our processors have lost market share hence the vicious campaign to drive prices down and the possibility that the 30k number on weekly kill doesn't hold any more

It is undoubtedly true.

Crossakiel

Has the beef kill not been up constantly on last year since the factories started killing the bulls again in January?

Farmer Pudsey

Crossakiel wrote: »

Has the beef kill not been up constantly on last year since the factories started killing the bulls again in January?

Yes it has been up constantly since January. running 86K over last year. Over 24 weeks that averages 3.5/week. However last 6 weeks it averaging 5-6k/week above last year. The 100K extra is now out of system so it is a matter of slowing kill to exert pressure so as to rise the price. Cattle that are killed go throungh the system in 3-4 weeks. Factory's cannot store fresh indefinately and have only so much storage capacity.

Are there fridges full yes but if kills slows they will not be long getting empty

onyerbikepat

What do people think of 'Beef Price Futures'?
I mentioned it on here before but nobody passed comment on it. I think it would be a great way of taking the price uncertainty out of the market. The price of the futures alone would give a good indication of what way the market was going. I'm no financial expert but it makes sense to me.:p

TUBBY

onyerbikepat wrote: »

What do people think of 'Beef Price Futures'?
I mentioned it on here before but nobody passed comment on it. I think it would be a great way of taking the price uncertainty out of the market. The price of the futures alone would give a good indication of what way the market was going. I'm no financial expert but it makes sense to me.:p

sure beef price present is hard enough get out of them on a Friday for the following week

severeoversteer

Farmer Pudsey wrote: »

Loads of farmers made serious money last year with cattle killed in late May and June. .

you must not have been in any mart in spring 2012 when all these cattle were bought, they were crazy dear that spring and all the dear cattle that spring were projected for that shortage period in early summer 2013 may june

I know well because I bought a moxy of cattle in spring 2012 and killed them in june 2013 ,,, and with the crap weather in between that they didn't kill out as well and cost a fortune to winter in early 2013 and I still only made the same auld money on them, what another one made another one lost

willfarmerman

severeoversteer wrote: »

you must not have been in any mart in spring 2012 when all these cattle were bought, they were crazy dear that spring and all the dear cattle that spring were projected for that shortage period in early summer 2013 may june

I know well because I bought a moxy of cattle in spring 2012 and killed them in june 2013 ,,, and with the crap weather in between that they didn't kill out as well and cost a fortune to winter in early 2013 and I still only made the same auld money on them, what another one made another one lost

I concur with that 100%. We were all going to clean up with the London Olympics :mad:

willfarmerman

rangler1 wrote: »

Increments don't matter, if they were 8c they'd just drop the base price a few cent, look at the QA....you have to wonder whether that's a penalty or a bonus at this stage

Height of hypocrisy.

willfarmerman

rangler1 wrote: »

Now what's wrong

Your posts are completely contradictory.:cool:

rangler1

willfarmerman wrote: »

Your posts are completely contradictory.:cool:

As in QA...Never a prob on my farm, I even help the factory with promos
but boy do I hear about it in my other life.

willfarmerman

rangler1 wrote: »

Increments don't matter, if they were 8c they'd just drop the base price a few cent, look at the QA....you have to wonder whether that's a penalty or a bonus at this stage

This is something you wrote on this...^^^

rangler1

willfarmerman wrote: »

This is something you wrote on this...^^^

What are you getting at, do you not think factories will manipulate the price to suit

willfarmerman

rangler1 wrote: »

What are you getting at, do you not think factories will manipulate the price to suit

Of course they will as I said the whole grid system loaded their guns for them. The ifa supported it.you called me a saddo for not agreeing with it.

darragh_haven

€3.80 /kg for animals sending in on Monday. If they don't go Monday it will be €3.75, and I was told they are going to €3.70 next week. I can honestly say we will make feck all out of these cattle. And its a totally grass based system.

rangler1

willfarmerman wrote: »

Of course they will as I said the whole grid system loaded their guns for them. The ifa supported it.you called me a saddo for not agreeing with it.

Nothing wrong with the grid, its what was looked for, farmers wanted a price difference for all the grades, now they've got it and they can't get handle it, as far as I can remember, teagasc worked out the increments or probably copied someone elses research, the grid has nothing to do with setting the base price.
so if they didn't want to give anymore than 3.50 for rs and the increments changed they'd just change the base price, the grid would still be right , in that Us would be a better price than Os

You must be producing O grade if you're being penalised and a lot of farmers think the difference should be greater

willfarmerman

rangler1 wrote: »

Nothing wrong with the grid, its what was looked for, farmers wanted a price difference for all the grades, now they've got it and they can't get handle it, as far as I can remember, teagasc worked out the increments or probably copied someone elses research, the grid has nothing to do with setting the base price.
so if they didn't want to give anymore than 3.50 for rs and the increments changed they'd just change the base price, the grid would still be right , in that Us would be a better price than Os

You must be producing O grade if you're being penalised and a lot of farmers think the difference should be greater

Yes I produce o grade cattle. There are more o grade cattle than any other kind. I also have r and u grade cattle. I don't care what they are or who produces them as long as they leave me a turn.

The grid was invented to try to justify the unjustifiable continental suckler cows. It has cheapened more beef than it has added value to I my opinion.

willfarmerman

rangler1 wrote: »

Nothing wrong with the grid, its what was looked for, farmers wanted a price difference for all the grades, now they've got it and they can't get handle it, as far as I can remember, teagasc worked out the increments or probably copied someone elses research, the grid has nothing to do with setting the base price.
so if they didn't want to give anymore than 3.50 for rs and the increments changed they'd just change the base price, the grid would still be right , in that Us would be a better price than Os

You must be producing O grade if you're being penalised and a lot of farmers think the difference should be greater

It was looked for by elitist suckler farmers who dominate the ifa livestock committee. Farmers with dairy bred stock are viewed as 2nd class bad farmers with bad stock. Our concerns were completely quashed. The farmers journal was and is completely biased. We never had a review and private unbiased analysis to ensure it is not cheapening the tonne of beef for the processors.

severeoversteer

the American price is about 3.70

they can use
hormones
no age issues
no factory feedlots
massive scale
no weight issues id imagine
no gobsheens at a mart ring making cattle dear
no qa
steers and heifers or bulls

I would produce beef for 3.70 a kilo if I had less restrictions on animals such as age and weight, if you removed all the restrictions I believe we could produce bull beef for processed manufacturing beef cheaper than America and brazil because then we would be getting the benefit of the suckler breeding for high carcase yields in our breeding

Base price

rangler1 wrote: »

Nothing wrong with the grid, its what was looked for, farmers wanted a price difference for all the grades, now they've got it and they can't get handle it, as far as I can remember, teagasc worked out the increments or probably copied someone elses research, the grid has nothing to do with setting the base price.
so if they didn't want to give anymore than 3.50 for rs and the increments changed they'd just change the base price, the grid would still be right , in that Us would be a better price than Os

You must be producing O grade if you're being penalised and a lot of farmers think the difference should be greater

What farmers agreed to the grid?
Oh, do you mean some farmers that were extremely/financially active in the the IFA at that time in order to row the boat in their own direction - as opposed to most of the farmers in my area (small farmers) who have paid their IFA subs year on year and rely on the IFA to represent them in a fair and equitable way?

Farmer Pudsey

severeoversteer wrote: »

you must not have been in any mart in spring 2012 when all these cattle were bought, they were crazy dear that spring and all the dear cattle that spring were projected for that shortage period in early summer 2013 may june

I know well because I bought a moxy of cattle in spring 2012 and killed them in june 2013 ,,, and with the crap weather in between that they didn't kill out as well and cost a fortune to winter in early 2013 and I still only made the same auld money on them, what another one made another one lost

Last June suckler farmers that finished there own stock and put them to grass early cleaned up. Also in September 2012 you would have bought AA and HE heifers 350-400kgs for 200ish with there weight. They made 5/kg in June 2012. There was serious money made on heifers lads were getting 1500 euro for heifers killing 300kgs. I remember one lad having heifers going into 1800 euro.

Bulls were on fire especially under age. 4.5+ of a base on the grid. Again alot of these were bought for 2-2.2/kg in late 2012. I know lads that bought bulls for 900 euro and they made 1700 in the factory in June. Shortterm cattle bought in late 2012 and finished in June left serious money.

Loads of suckler farmers turned to finishing that winter, I was told by one that suckler farmers would never again sell there stock as weanling/stores.