Another EU referendum on the way

later12

Deleted User wrote: »

It is based on the fact that the supply of oil (the prime source of energy in the economy) has reached its maximum level of production at a price that allows the economy to grow.

From now on the cost of oil will be too high to sustain growth

Can you give me a link for this fact please?

One explanation of why oil prices may not be particularly harmful as has perhaps been in previous decades is increased globalisation. We do not trade with Jupiter. Global trade is a zero sum game and therefore any losses are mitigated.

From a recent IMF report:
http://www.relooney.info/0_New_10862.pdf

our estimates suggesting that a 25 percent increase in oil prices will cause a loss of real GDP in oil-importing countries of less than half of one percent, spread over 2–3 years. One likely explanation for this relatively modest impact is that part of the greater revenue accruing to oil exporters will be recycled in the form of imports or other international flows, thus contributing to keep up demand in oil-importing economies. We provide a model illustrating this effect and find supporting empirical evidence.

In other words, higher oil prices are similar to the phenomenon we see with precious metals whereby rapidly increasing prices may help to sustain growth by 'oiling' the growth engines of the world.

There is some well known work by a US economist named Hamilton on the relationship between rising oil prices and US slowdowns which was considered very important about 30 years ago, but while his analysis of rising prices was based on trade disruptions with a very unstable middle east, our current rising prices are more related to economic growth.

later12

My name is URL wrote: »

Just saw this video posted elsewhere.. it's worth a watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPcWHBPYOSU

It really is not.

The 'Draft Treaty' is not just available to members of parliament, as the video states. It's on google if you look for it you can read it without the drama.

later10

later10 wrote: »

It really is not.

The 'Draft Treaty' is not just available to members of parliament, as the video states. It's on google if you look for it you can read it without the drama.

Yes, and the sections highlighted are in fact real as well.

The parasitic banking sector is determined to suck its host dry before dying!

later12

Deleted User wrote: »

Yes, and the sections highlighted are in fact real as well.

The parasitic banking sector is determined to suck its host dry before dying!

What, in particular, are you concerned about with respect to the ESM?

can you send me on the link to that "fact" you posted as requested?

TheZohanS

My name is URL wrote: »

Just saw this video posted elsewhere.. it's worth a watch

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPcWHBPYOSU

Looks legit! :pac:

My name is URL

TheZohan wrote: »

Looks legit! :pac:

Well it's legit enough, the points outlined in the video all exist within the ESM draft agreement

The property, funding and assets of the ESM shall, wherever located and by whomsoever
held, be immune from search, requisition, confiscation, expropriation or any other form of
seizure, taking or foreclosure by executive, judicial, administrative or legislative action.

http://www.openeurope.org.uk/docs/draftesmtreaty.pdf

nacho libre

Eric Cartman wrote: »

cant wait for this

and the result is 58% no

enda : the irish voting public were ill informed about the descision

repeat until yes

I really don't think that will be the outcome. As I suggested a few pages back there will be a little sweetener(debt reduction) thrown in to ensure we vote Yes. If that doesn't work(though i think it will be sufficient) there is always subtle threats of the consequences to voting no as indicated by Michael Noonan in a recent interview with a foreign station.

My name is URL

Nice infographic showing just what countries can expect if they leave the Eurozone

http://cdn.thejournal.ie/media/2011/12/bcg-eurocollapse.jpg

THERE SEEMS TO be no end in sight to the debt crisis in Europe – which, despite frantic political deals and constant intervention by the European Central Bank, seems to be as pressing as ever.

With continued fears over the long-term stability of the euro – and with the constant questions about the prospect of having to leave it – this graphic from the Boston Consulting Group could be worth taking a look at.

It explains how leaving the euro would impact on both the exiting country and the rest of the eurozone, with regard to economic indicators like exports, employment, savings, asset returns and inflation.

The graphic is part of a full report called ‘What Next? Where Next?’ which can be read for free on registration at BCG’s website.

http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/the-single-image-that-explains-what-happens-if-we-leave-the-euro-308879-Dec2011/

TheZohanS

My name is URL wrote: »

Well it's legit enough, the points outlined in the video all exist within the ESM draft agreement


http://www.openeurope.org.uk/docs/draftesmtreaty.pdf

I was talking about the agreement itself, not the video URL. But of course the EU Superstate fanbois will call that scaremongering. From my reading of the Treaty every state will have to do whatever necessary for the good of the Euro and that *might* include harmonisation of taxes including Corporation Tax.

K-9

My name is URL wrote: »

Nice infographic showing just what countries can expect if they leave the Eurozone

http://cdn.thejournal.ie/media/2011/12/bcg-eurocollapse.jpg



http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/the-single-image-that-explains-what-happens-if-we-leave-the-euro-308879-Dec2011/

Interesting, the short term effects tend to be extreme and the long term effects moderate, though it's hard to read.

Kind of ties in with the report that Ireland would lose 40-50% of GDP and Germany about 25-30% by leaving. Would be some short, sharp shock that would put some perspective on the current austerity budgets!

later12

My name is URL wrote: »

Well it's legit enough, the points outlined in the video all exist within the ESM draft agreement


http://www.openeurope.org.uk/docs/draftesmtreaty.pdf

The property, funding and assets of the ESM shall, wherever located and by whomsoever
held, be immune from search, requisition, confiscation, expropriation or any other form of
seizure, taking or foreclosure by executive, judicial, administrative or legislative action.

Such stupidity.

That provision prevents the ESM from being sued from the likes of debenture holders who may, for example, be central banks who are forced to take a write down on the debts they hold of ESM constituent states by Collective Action Clauses. It also prevents a member state of the ESM taking a similar action against the ESM.

The Board of Governers of the ESM is made up of politicians from each E.A. country, including Ireland.

And of course our judges, our parliament and our civil servants cannot control the ESM's funds.

It is not the property of any individual parliament, judiciary or civil service, but of the collective Eurozone member states. It's the same principle with the already extant EFSF.

Seriously, what is your concern here?