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Potential SHTF scenarios & tinfoil hat thread (Please read post 1)

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  • An Ri rua wrote: »
    Me? Both. Physical (panned and also numismatic) and digital via Bullionvault.

    No, Grizzly 45, I do not have a gold store. Yes, gold can be traded. Buy small enough allocations via grams if needed. The market does not act rationally, whether in depression, euphoria or SHTF. Even when people are starving, someone will want your gold. Think of the Irish Famine. Markets are not logical, everyone has a different agenda.

    We are not disputing that it cant be traded at all.We are disputing that it is foolish to have all your eggs or gold in one basket.The Irish famine,those that it really affected had sweet FA to trade for a rotten potato not to mind gold!!If they had any gold as coin of the realm it was gone on buying somthing to eat or geting out of Ireland.Yes it is an asset but as Krissivo and my familes experiance has pointed out ,it only has value when some sort of commerce takes up here again.

    Not to mind gold like most other items of value can be confiscated by the powers that be under emergency legislation.Usually at gunpoint,with you been given in lieu some worthless paper money of the new govt if it is govt types... lead if it isnt.

    Yet they might overlook a supply of fags or a few extra bottles of well stashed booze.Or a buried stash of .22rifle shells out on your property.

    As we are heading towards th Euro collapse which I think is a given within the next 12 or less months the currencies around here will be dollars or STG.Or we will find somthing of barterable value amongst ourselves if it really goes to pot here.

    Gold unless you can figure out how to break it down to "change" isnt going to work well as

    [1] We dont have enough of it to go around for a common currency.

    [2]Its intrinsic value is too high for everyday items.IE a tin of beans for a gold soverign ...400 euros plus for an item worth at best a fiver.[Unless of course things are really bad and baked beans will never be available again.]

    3]Unless you know how to test it with nitric acid,it is an easily forged metal or currency.

    4]The US survivalists recommend stockpiling some pre 1964 US coinage because there is silver in coinage.So it has some value.However I dont think our Irish coinage since the inception of the state has had that either,and the money at the moment[euro] isnt worth anything ,certainly not even its face value.
    Thats my take on it.Better to have a little of somthing in many baskets than it all in one basket.

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"





  • Interesting, so following that line of reasoning, if you had to go shopping now for the next (12? months maybe 24?). What would you be shopping for? Just curious.

    Beginning to wish I had done a 'trade' of some sort.

    Grizzly has a good shopping list;) And for your lack of trade you can take up a "hobby" that will cover not having a trade. Learning to make booze/baskets/bread/Pate for example and perfecting good results will give you a head start. Sell it at car boots or craft fares for a couple of times.

    In Bosnia there were quite a few opportunists in the early days, copied CD, DVD's and Game shops opened everywhere, vulcanizer's (tyre repair) suddenly opened up 2 or 3 to a village as the roads were so bad and tyres needed a lot or work. There were even fast food trollies that served vermin and birds and with their secret ingredients tasted fine.

    Obviously think of your own needs first and think of how much space you have. If you live in a semi then buy what you can store. If rural you can focus on the immediate requirements like food, firewood which require larger areas. For your shopping you need to find a consumable item that is relatively cheap and luxurious at the same time and these will have demand regardless of the situation.

    Fags - I pick up a rim or two every time I travel to a cheap(er) country. Brands dont really matter and "freshness" does not matter that much to a desperate smoker. Value of these has only gone up and will continue to do so. I still have fags from Saudi Arabia that I bought in the early 90's that cost me €3 for 200, I can and have sold these for €5 a pack of 20 recently. I can still buy rims of Marlboro in Asia for around €5 a rim. Most of my fags come from Spain or now Poland as I know people who regularly travel plus being EU I can bring back a suitcase full.

    Booze - Now cheap crap will always be available but middle to high end stuff is really where the value is. Pull out a bottle of Middleton rare and the value will remain, same goes with Brandy. Used in the right situation will pay back your investment easily. Strangely enough the American Jack Daniels and Jim Beam always go down well even though I consider it cheap and nasty so I have plenty of this crud as well.




  • Interesting, so following that line of reasoning, if you had to go shopping now for the next (12? months maybe 24?). What would you be shopping for? Just curious.

    Beginning to wish I had done a 'trade' of some sort.

    But you already have a survival trade!:D A Ham radio operator will be quite a useful person to have .IFIWY ,I'd be learning up on all the skills needed to keep your equipment in top shape,how to cannabilise ,repair ,improvise and fix any sort of transmission/reciving equipment you might come across from old ww2 valve radio transmitters to modern SAT comms.Buy in some books and tools and you neednt be too worried about your future trade.;)Not to mind figuring out how to EMP proof stuff.

    As for buying in over the next 12 months,Food,fuel,proper clothing[not fashion stuff,solidly built rugged clothes and footwear] and possibly barterable items.Go to a Euro store and look at the shelves,think what of all there is in a place like that that you use everyday,everything from pens and paper to sweets and household items.What would you pay for a good can opener if you hadnt got one to hand??;)

    Only thing as a mega fly in the ointment.
    As we are all so cash starved at the minute trying to keep our day to day lives going paying bills and whatever.How many of us do have money left over to put into operation any major plans and purchases to make life better for ourselves??
    I am about 2 years behind my plans since 09 to get things into place,and thats just due to financial capital to do any of this.

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"





  • If the weather forcasters are right we could have other problems soon
    http://www.herald.ie/news/new-ice-age-on-the-way-but-its-just-a-little-one-2901083.html




  • And the other lot says it will be global warming.Yet another shower say this Winter wont be as bad as last..One fact has emerged solar flares and sunspots are supposed to flatline for the next decade.
    So this might have somthing to do with it??
    Either way today was freezing cold,and if my records are right it kind of started getting cold this time last year..

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"



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  • Grizzly 45 wrote: »
    And the other lot says it will be global warming.Yet another shower say this Winter wont be as bad as last..One fact has emerged solar flares and sunspots are supposed to flatline for the next decade.
    So this might have somthing to do with it??
    Either way today was freezing cold,and if my records are right it kind of started getting cold this time last year..
    Well if your records are wrong so are mine lol




  • Bring on the Fecking snow!




  • It can hold off till next week when I get proper tyres on my 4x4:D

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"





  • Grizzly 45 wrote: »
    And the other lot says it will be global warming.Yet another shower say this Winter wont be as bad as last..One fact has emerged solar flares and sunspots are supposed to flatline for the next decade.
    So this might have somthing to do with it??
    Either way today was freezing cold,and if my records are right it kind of started getting cold this time last year..
    this day last year we were covered in snow, chattin to my bro in law today and he was stuck in london because flights were canceled there and here




  • Grizzly 45 wrote: »
    But you already have a survival trade!:D A Ham radio operator will be quite a useful person to have .IFIWY ,I'd be learning up on all the skills needed to keep your equipment in top shape,how to cannabilise ,repair ,improvise and fix any sort of transmission/reciving equipment you might come across from old ww2 valve radio transmitters to modern SAT comms.Buy in some books and tools and you neednt be too worried about your future trade.;)Not to mind figuring out how to EMP proof stuff.

    As for buying in over the next 12 months,Food,fuel,proper clothing[not fashion stuff,solidly built rugged clothes and footwear] and possibly barterable items.Go to a Euro store and look at the shelves,think what of all there is in a place like that that you use everyday,everything from pens and paper to sweets and household items.What would you pay for a good can opener if you hadnt got one to hand??;)

    Only thing as a mega fly in the ointment.
    As we are all so cash starved at the minute trying to keep our day to day lives going paying bills and whatever.How many of us do have money left over to put into operation any major plans and purchases to make life better for ourselves??
    I am about 2 years behind my plans since 09 to get things into place,and thats just due to financial capital to do any of this.

    Hey, I never said I was an Amateur Radio operator, who told you that ;)

    Unfortunately, there is too much modern stuff today that uses surface mount components, that's another skill that needs to be developed. And I've not quite been brave enough/had enough time to try messing with SMT stuff. Plus there's better techs than myself within cycling distance. That said, necessity is the mother of invention and all that. And, yeah I am building up a book collection etc.

    The simplest solution for EMP is disconnect it from everything, wrap in a plastic bag and stick it in a metal box. If the EMP is strong enough to kill the device with that, then I'm probably dead already (That said I currently only have one transceiver protected in this way. I could do with getting a suitable ammo box). I always disconnect HF antenna when I'm not here anyway.

    Roger on the basics. I guess a lot of it is common sense. I'll go back through the thread. And I empathise re cash-flow. I'm in the same boat myself.


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  • http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056449011 this thread had some good stuff in it




  • in a f888 k up ireland we will firstly resort to history then some sort of fall out hierrccy when that will not work we will fall back into cave man mode only the fittest will survie with or without supplies by the way u who hav may learn to keep or soon place a value on life/survial :mad:




  • Hey, I never said I was an Amateur Radio operator, who told you that ;)

    Private Dicks know everything :D




  • When its going mainstream, its time to worry : -

    http://www.rte.ie/news/money/debt/how-would-my-finances-change-if-euro-collapsed.html

    ps we spoke (I apologise if I was a little gruff re defence of gold) re safe havens of wealth and using gold as a currency in a SHTF situation. Some mentioned Sterling. The reality, in the eyes of both goldbugs but also markets is that the euro, though deeply troubled, is backed by 10,000 tonnes of gold. In fact they've resurrected this meme as a comfort blanket to those who worry about the ECB's ability to pay off ALL debts incurred. Britain, on the other hand, due to Gordon Brown's vision, has only 300 tonnes of gold to back up its currency. They have already deployed quantitative easing. When they resort to that again and again, how long before externally and internally its only worth sh1t? So, no, as a store of value another FIAT currency is a dicey move. We're not in the early part of the 20th century; we're in a globalised financial economy. If we're f*cked, they are too. And on it goes. All currencies, or rather all banking systems become deeply unstable if the euro derails.

    Tonight, although gold is heading down due to the euro crisis (counter-intuitive but its the case), I've converted all remaining euro into Bullionvault Zurich gold. And yes, getting that back in the face of a banking meltdown will not be straightforward. But leaving it in yoyos? No thank you. Incidentally, we should now see more and more gold being sold off by central banks according to Larry edelson (@larryedelson)> Why? because politicians see it as assets that can be converted into cash, which pays bills and keeps things liquid. They don't see it as a store of wealth or as a currency in itself. It is, however. Anyone who wants to skip the queue in the Celtic jungle should put away some gold and wait it out. Do not swap for chickens or a ride or a corset for your darling wife. Keep it. Just like you did with your confirmation money. You kept that, didn't you?




  • I am sorry but anyone who didnt convert cash 6 months ago or even longer are simply too late. Unfortunately whatever you do now you will lose somehow be it exchange rates, commission or rip off traders milking the system.

    Once its mainstream you're to late! This is why we prepare with the basics, Shelter, Food and Water first followed by valuable assets.




  • krissovo wrote: »
    I am sorry but anyone who didnt convert cash 6 months ago or even longer are simply too late. Unfortunately whatever you do now you will lose somehow be it exchange rates, commission or rip off traders milking the system.

    Once its mainstream you're to late! This is why we prepare with the basics, Shelter, Food and Water first followed by valuable assets.
    Exchange rates are pretty similar now to what they were 6 months ago though?

    I think.




  • krissovo wrote: »
    I am sorry but anyone who didnt convert cash 6 months ago or even longer are simply too late.
    Yes, because you can no longer buy Coca-cola shares anymore, or any blue-chip stock.

    Oh, wait...




  • An Ri rua wrote: »
    When its going mainstream, its time to worry : -

    http://www.rte.ie/news/money/debt/how-would-my-finances-change-if-euro-collapsed.html

    ps we spoke (I apologise if I was a little gruff re defence of gold) re safe havens of wealth and using gold as a currency in a SHTF situation. Some mentioned Sterling. The reality, in the eyes of both goldbugs but also markets is that the euro, though deeply troubled, is backed by 10,000 tonnes of gold. In fact they've resurrected this meme as a comfort blanket to those who worry about the ECB's ability to pay off ALL debts incurred. Britain, on the other hand, due to Gordon Brown's vision, has only 300 tonnes of gold to back up its currency

    True enough,if Britan had joined the Euro they would have had 10,300 tonnes of gold.Only trouble with this is the Euro going in the future be valued on specie???[IOW wil one Euro or Nord Euro be worth its weight in gold,or reedemable as such??]A few hundred billon euro notes are going to chop into 10k tonnes of gold pretty quick.Indeed the "one eyed Scottish idiot"[ala Jeremy Clarkson] did them no favours by not stocking up the bank of England with some gold reserves.However it is still under UK central bank control,which will only work in UK intrests ratherb than the EU.
    . If we're f*cked, they are too. And on it goes. All currencies, or rather all banking systems become deeply unstable if the euro derails.

    Tonight, although gold is heading down due to the euro crisis (counter-intuitive but its the case), I've converted all remaining euro into Bullionvault Zurich gold. And yes, getting that back in the face of a banking meltdown will not be straightforward. But leaving it in yoyos? No thank you.

    That was one I'd be worried about from the word go.You have a piece of paper saying you have "gold" appx 1000 miles away in another country...
    I myself would rather have in in physical form with me in coinage.

    Incidentally, we should now see more and more gold being sold off by central banks according to Larry edelson (@larryedelson)> Why? because politicians see it as assets that can be converted into cash, which pays bills and keeps things liquid. They don't see it as a store of wealth or as a currency in itself. It is, however. Anyone who wants to skip the queue in the Celtic jungle should put away some gold and wait it out. Do not swap for chickens or a ride or a corset for your darling wife. Keep it. Just like you did with your confirmation money. You kept that, didn't you?[/

    Very true indeed ,if however you can find somone who recognises the intrinsic value of your gold rather than the junk weight value of the metal in Ireland. IOWsay a US gold double eagle has a collectors value worth of maybe 5,000 usd,but its gold weight is worth maybe 500 euros.Most people are selling their gold here on "junk metal "weight EG [500 euros] rather than the intrinsic value.Whats to say a gold dealer isnt hhoarding up the coinage and relying to make a profit in the future on the intrinsic value of the coins sold to him. [IOW the old gag I'll sell you a fiver for a tenner!].If you got gold sell it outside the ROI:eek:

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"





  • I dunno, back in the 60s it was the military industrial complex, jury's still out on that mind you, in the 70s they told us OPEC was going to destroy civilisation, in the 80s the sky was falling through the hole in the ozone layer and the Japanese were going to rule the world, in the 90s global warming and water supplies were in fashion, these days you have a fine buffet to choose from, economic collapse, overpopulation, climate change, terrorism, outsourcing, peak what have you, and so on.

    Its all bullshit in my opinion. Thats not to say I'm not going to be prepared in case of emergencies, recent history is replete with examples of people caught short whether its hurricane Katrina or the floods in Dublin or the councils running out of grit for the roads or a nuclear reactor in Japan being hit with the double whammy of a tsunami and an earthquake. And at the end of the day nature has a mean uppercut.

    But I'm not about to invest large amounts of time and money planning for the end of the world. I mean gold? Buy a few bricks of tobacco in eastern europe and you'll have a far more valuable trade good at a sliver of the price. You want to protect your wealth? Invest in a pension fund, they dwarf everyone else these days anyway, when you hear the media talking about "the markets", that's really who they are referring to.

    We have a few hidings coming our way, medical science is running neck and neck with serious deadly contagion and politically its game up for a few characters who aren't known for going gentle into that good night, but really, look after yourself and yours and you'll be alright.

    Still if anyone's interested I'm selling top quality tinfoil hats with inbuilt faraday cages at bargain basement prices. :D




  • Doc Ruby wrote: »

    Still if anyone's interested I'm selling top quality tinfoil hats with inbuilt faraday cages at bargain basement prices. :D

    I'm glad someone finally brought up the subject of tinfoil hats 4 pages after someone retroactively stuck them into the title of the thread


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  • In reality a tinfoil hat is only goingto make the voices in your head from the whatever three letter organisation bugging you come in all the better!:D

    dunno, back in the 60s it was the military industrial complex, jury's still out on that mind you, in the 70s they told us OPEC was going to destroy civilisation, in the 80s the sky was falling through the hole in the ozone layer and the Japanese were going to rule the world, in the 90s global warming and water supplies were in fashion, these days you have a fine buffet to choose from, economic collapse, overpopulation, climate change, terrorism, outsourcing, peak what have you, and so on.

    Its all bullshit in my opinion.


    Everyone who is intrested in survivalism should read "State of Fear"byMicheal Crichton.It gives a very good insight as to WHY we always are foisted with somthing to be worried about or fearful of by our powers that be.
    Think on this one..When was there a time in recent history,when we generally in the World had nothing to fear???

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"





  • Grizzly 45 wrote: »
    In reality a tinfoil hat is only goingto make the voices in your head from the whatever three letter organisation bugging you come in all the better!:D
    True.

    Everyone who is intrested in survivalism should read "State of Fear"byMicheal Crichton.It gives a very good insight as to WHY we always are foisted with somthing to be worried about or fearful of by our powers that be.
    Think on this one..When was there a time in recent history,when we generally in the World had nothing to fear???

    There was a brief period between 1990 and 2001 where there wasn't a whole lot to fear. Global warming didn't really kick off until the 2000's. I grew up during that time and think it was better back then so I have a huge resentment towards the authoritarianism associated with whatever fear is being created to justify it.

    1990's:
    *No high profile terrorism, the odd "wee bomb" up in Omagh but this was all in decline
    *Celtic tiger was starting to get going, no economic woes
    *Global warming was starting to be researched but not gaining much attention
    *Water supplies? Sure during the 90's free water was deemed a human right
    *Big brother: Cold war was just over, no Al Qaeda to justify invasion of privacy, big brother tech wasn't all that brilliant back then anyway

    The 90's were the best decade in a long time.




  • Give that man a cigar!!;):D

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"





  • eth0 wrote: »
    The 90's were the best decade in a long time.

    I spent most the 90's in the Former Yugoslavia I guess I missed the security of that decade:(




  • As you would have in Somalia,Israel,Rwanda and all the other local flareups on the planet at that time.Resaon Yougoslavia was the biggie ,it was supposedly in civillised Europe!!:rolleyes:And showed yet again what sort of a cluster fuK the UN and the EU was in sorting out a big mess on its doorstep.Not to mind us Westernrs trying to buy some silk with the Muslims,when Al Queida was happily training down there and supplying arms ,money and drugs as well.:rolleyes:And that place is not finished by a long shot yet!!!

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"





  • This is interesting.
    Hu Jintao tells China navy: Prepare for warfare

    China's navy should speed up its development and prepare for warfare, President Hu Jintao has said.

    He told military personnel they should "make extended preparations for warfare".

    China is locked in territorial disputes with several other nations in the South China Sea. Political tension is also growing with the US, which is seeking to boost its presence in the region.

    After Mr Hu's comments, the US said China was entitled to defend itself.

    "Nobody's looking for a scrap here," said Pentagon spokesman Admiral John Kirby in quotes carried by the AFP news agency.

    "Certainly we wouldn't begrudge any other nation the opportunity to develop naval forces."

    I've been keeping half an eye on the situation in the South China sea for a while, looks like its warming up to what could be a right mess. This is the difference between what China claims and what international treaties have agreed:

    _56809598__48951920_south_china-sea_1_466-1.jpg

    If they try and enforce that they'll have a war with all of SE Asia, and it looks like they might just have the stones to give it a shot. Obviously that would pull in the US and everyone else as well.




  • Its rehortic plain and simple! China has no more chance of carrying that threat out than Roscommon has a space programme to Mars.
    The Chinese have not got a viable blue water navy ...Yet.And wont have one for a good while to come.
    They do not have the experiance of running a Carrier battle group in any shape or form.The US navy has been doing such since 1941.
    While simulations of Chinese invasions of Tiwan have seen major losses on the US side ,by just plain kamikaze tactics by the Chinese.So what??The world would turn against China,and within four hours of the last naval engagement.
    As China would be seen and acting as a total beligirent on Twian.
    Not to mind anything moving in that area with a red star would be proably sunk by USN Ohio class hunter killer subs.

    The Chinese high command know this and are no fools to try somthing along these lines..They still take their their Sun Tzu the Art of War lessons very seriously over there.
    Chinas comms,military ,industrial complexes and Govt would be smoking ruins,or proably very hot radioactive bits of glass within 24 hours of this happening.

    They want somthing in trade or politics and are making martial noises about it.

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"





  • Probably, a couple of things though, they have a lot of unmarried men who will never get married due to their one child policy, with the ongoing recessions across the west their unemployment is rising (and economic growth is the only glue really holding China together), so they need a distraction, and international approval is becoming less important as domestic demand grows.




  • So they are going to ....do what militarily exactly with a few million young men???:confused::confused:
    Somhow I just cant see a Red Dawn [new version] scenario happening in reality.

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"



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  • From todays Examiner.
    Pity they just wont allow us the proper tools for the job!!:D
    Bill to give homeowners right to kill intruders

    By Stephen Rogers
    Friday, December 09, 2011
    HOUSEHOLDERS will have a legal right to use force up to and including killing an intruder in defence of homes and families, as long as they can prove they honestly believed their actions were "reasonable".
    Justice Minister Alan Shatter brought the Criminal Law (Defence and the Dwelling) Bill 2010 before the Seanad, where he told senators the "harsh reality of crime and in particular the crime of burglary" had to be addressed.

    He said nobody could disagree with the proposition that people should feel safe in their own homes and that an intrusion was "an attack on our peace of mind that can destroy a person’s sense of personal security and cause disturbance for many years after it has occurred".

    "That is why the law has always seen an intrusion into the home as a particularly egregious offence," he said.

    Until now common law has provided that people can use force to protect themselves, others and to protect property. The bill proposed by the Government clarifies and strengthens the existing legislation when it comes to protecting the home.

    The bill also says that it is immaterial whether the householder had a "safe and practicable" opportunity to retreat from the dwelling before using the force.



    Read more: http://www.irishexaminer.com/ireland/bill-to-give-homeowners-right-to-kill-intruders-176645.html#ixzz1g2Tg7Vp5

    Confucius say."He who says one man cannot change World. Never has eaten bat soup in Wuhan!"



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