Heineken Cup - General Discussion Thread

bamboozle

thomond2006 wrote: »

Pool 1
Munster (Q)
Northampton (Q)
Scarlets
Castres

Pool 2
Racing Metro (Q)
Cardiff Blues
London Irish
Edinburgh

Pool 3
Leinster (Q)
Bath
Montpellier
Glasgow

Pool 4
Clermont (Q)
Leicester
Ulster
Aironi

Pool 5
Saracens (Q)
Ospreys
Biarritz
Treviso

Pool 6
Toulouse (Q)
Harlequins (Q)
Gloucester
Connacht

there's a suprise Serge Blanco's Biarritz have an Italian team in their group

[Jackass]

I can't see Munster not making it through again. By hook or by crook I think they'll get out of their group, as a best runner up imo.

I think the new system with the Amlin is good. Has mostly top teams in the knockouts in this format, as apposed to one or two mediocre English sides in the past, and lends it a lot more credability and makes it worth winning if you find yourself in it. A proper "UEFA Cup" or whatever it's called these days. But good to have a decent second tier European competition.

Very excited about this Heineken Cup. Nervous as hell, and hope Leinster can do well without BO'D, but we'll see. Should be great viewing though. This weekend is absolutely key for both Leinster and Munster, the result will go a long way to deciding how they fair come the business end of the groups.

If you offered me a 3 - 0 in Montpellier, I'd bite your arm off!

If Connacht were to assume they weren't going to make it out of their group first time, then I'm glad they at least got 3 big teams to get the crowds in and give them a good taste of European rugby and what it's all about.

Worryingly, I think if there's going to be a surprise package this season, it'll be Montpellier. I also think Clermont will have a good tilt at it this season, so hope to avoid them or get them at home if we meet in the knockouts. They're my dark horse to win it.

[Jackass]

bamboozle wrote: »

there's a suprise Serge Blanco's Biarritz have an Italian team in their group

In the last 8 seasons, they've had an Italian team SEVEN TIMES. Let's not make it obvious lads.

The one time they didn't, they had Dragons and Glasgow in their group...

Going to manage to get to;

• Bath v Leinster
• Gloucester v Connacht

and hopefully

• Northampton v Munster

in the group stages. So close to making it 4/4 with the

• Leicester v Ulster

game next Saturday but unfortunately there's 3 of us in the office with birthdays around that date and that's been selected as the date for the party...

CIARAN_BOYLE

Deleted User wrote: »

game next Saturday but unfortunately there's 3 of us in the office with birthdays around that date and that's been selected as the date for the party...

Group trip to the match and then a few drinks afterwards? Some party

CIARAN_BOYLE

CIARAN_BOYLE wrote: »

Group trip to the match and then a few drinks afterwards? Some party

Only rugby fan in work, lads here are all soccer and cricket through and through unfortunately.

jacothelad

Deleted User wrote: »

Only rugby fan in work, lads here are all soccer and cricket through and through unfortunately.

You could educate them, but maybe on another occasion. I actually wouldn't recommend the Tigers / Ulster game to anyone on our current showing. Without a decent front row for that game we are going to get annihilated. It could be X rated stuff.

CatFromHue

I'm surprised people are putting Munster as top of their group. Northampton are better than they were two years and it could be argued that Munster are weaker. Northampton will also have experience of playing in Thomond Park and will be kicking themselves for not winning there before. Plus the last and possibly deciding game is in England, not Limerick.

It's hard to know what to expect from Lanelli and Castres. I was looking at Castres results from last year and other than the last game when they were out the games they lost were all by less than a try i.e. other than the last game they were competeing the whole time. They've won 7/10 and are third in the Top 14.

I think Munster will have a real fight on their hands to get out of this group. Considering the teams they also have to play in the Pro 12 during the Heineken pool stages I can see Munster struggling!

smurphy29

[Jackass] wrote: »

In the last 8 seasons, they've had an Italian team SEVEN TIMES. Let's not make it obvious lads.

The one time they didn't, they had Dragons and Glasgow in their group...

Yeah, there's a reason for it though. It's because teams of the same nationality have to be kept apart. There were three French teams in the fourth seeds this year, so they couldn't get one of those - they had to get either an Italian team or Connacht.

totallegend

smurphy29 wrote: »

Yeah, there's a reason for it though. It's because teams of the same nationality have to be kept apart. There were three French teams in the fourth seeds this year, so they couldn't get one of those - they had to get either an Italian team or Connacht.

Fair enough this year, but it's the fact that they get easier opposition every year... No-one really believes it's fixed (do they?) but Biarritz do seem to get an easier draw every year.

[yes, we know they lost to Aironi last year]

[Jackass]

Well it preceeds the ranking and tiers, but also, since the ranking came in, they've consistantly been top tier, as have Toulouse, who over the 8 years Biarritz got 7 Italian draws, they got a big fat ZERO Italian draws.

Try and flip a coin and have it land on the same side 7 times in a row. After a couple of hours and thousands of attempts, you'll find the probability of this occuring is astronomical.

pajunior

If I remember any of my maths I think it's only 1/128.

2 to the power of 7

totallegend

Just wondering, who will people be cheering for outside of the Irish teams?

For me, it will be Clermont, I always want them to do well but they always get hard draws. I'll also try to see as much of the Scarlets as I can, some of their rugby last year was sublime.

.ak

totallegend wrote: »

Just wondering, who will people be cheering for outside of the Irish teams?

For me, it will be Clermont, I always want them to do well but they always get hard draws. I'll also try to see as much of the Scarlets as I can, some of their rugby last year was sublime.

Clermont for me too. And to be honest, I think they'll win it this year.

Also catch all of Tolouse's matches... always entertaining stuff.

[Jackass]

pajunior wrote: »

If I remember any of my maths I think it's only 1/128.

2 to the power of 7

Correct!

But still, 1 / 128 is a 1.28% chance of this actually happening by random chance, which is pretty slim.

danthefan

[Quote=[Jackass];75383237]

pajunior wrote: »

If I remember any of my maths I think it's only 1/128.

2 to the power of 7

Correct!

But still, 1 / 128 is a 1.28% chance of this actually happening by random chance, which is pretty slim.[/Quote]

It's about a 0.78% chance.

justsomebloke

[Jackass] wrote: »

But still, 1 / 128 is a 1.28% chance of this actually happening by random chance, which is pretty slim.

If any of the pools are close this year you aren't allowed do any of the maths involved in showing possible outcomes:pac:

pajunior

[Jackass] wrote: »

Correct!

But still, 1 / 128 is a 1.28% chance of this actually happening by random chance, which is pretty slim.

Not really because it isn't always a 1/2 chance every year. For instanct this year it was a 2/3 chance of pulling an Italian team.
Also they've gotten an Italian team 7 out of 8 years so we would then have to take that into account.

All in all, yes it's highly unlikely but not ridiculous.

Also 1 in 128 is no 1.28%
Back to school for you I think

CatFromHue

The more I look at the Northampton team the harder it gets for Munster!

For their last two games the squad was:
Northampton: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jon Clarke, 12 Tom May, 11 Vasily Artemyev, 10 Ryan Lamb, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Phil Dowson, 7 Tom Wood, 6 Calum Clark, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Samu Manoa 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Soane Tonga'uiha.
Replacements: 16 Mike Haywood, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Paul Doran Jones, 19 Mark Sorenson, 20 Roger Wilson, 21 Martin Roberts, 22 Stephen Myler, 23 Scott Armstrong.

Northampton: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jon Clarke, 12 Tom May, 11 Vasily Artemyev, 10 Ryan Lamb, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Phil Dowson, 6 Calum Clark, 5 Mark Sorenson, 4 Courtney Lawes, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Soane Tonga'uiha.
Replacements: 16 Mike Haywood, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Paul Doran Jones, 19 Samu Manoa, 20 Tom Wood, 21 Martin Roberts, 22 Stephen Myler, 23 George Pisi.

The saints have pace in their back 3 that Munster can't match. They've three, while not world class, good quality centres. In the pack they've a good back and second row. Then they've a fantastic front row.

Where Munster are better are in the half backs and second row. Everywhere else I can see the Northampton team stronger! They're also a lot more of a settled team than Munster who were missing so many at the World Cup.

For the last two years they've finished in the top 4 in England and if you think back to their Heineken Quarter against Ulster they were able to up the tempo in the pack which ultimately broke Ulsters back.

Form wise Northampton are doing well in winning their last three games whereas Munster have lost 3 of their last 4!

Munster then follow this game up away to Castres who have lost only once at home this season. They were beaten by Racing Metro but have won against Stade Francais and Toulouse though.

This could be unfortunately a painful experience for Munster in the Heineken this season as I think they have to win the group to get true. I think Northampton will though.

such a massive front row. Tonga'uiha and Mujati are going to cause nightmares for Munster.

When you have a pack like Northampton's, and a back 3 like they do, it's tough to really defend against them as you see threats in close and out wide and gaps in between. Commit yourself to one or the other and you leave holes, don't commit enough and they take you apart.

Munster's defence held strong against Leinster, but this is a whole other level of pack intensity.

irishbucsfan

Most of the players on Northampton's bench would start for Munster I reckon. Not including Haywood (who I know little about), Manoa or Myler.

CatFromHue

Actually if you include the LV Cup then Saints have won their last 5 from 5.

In their last 3 games their front row and back three have scored 8 tries between them.

I certainly wouldn't want Leinster to be playing them that's for sure!

Also Tom May seems to add a bit more to their three quarter play than Downey.

cgpg5

Pool 1 Winner- Northampton

Can't see past Northampton winning this handy, they are in with a great shout of winning all games and will definitely fancy themselves in Thomond against a declining Munster side who will not qualify for a second consecutive season.

Pool 2 Winner- Racing Metro

A tough group to call but that's not in a good sense. Metro have far and away the best team in the group but will they take it seriously, this time around? Don't write off Cardiff. It's between them 2.

Pool 3 Winner- Leinster
Leinster to win at a canter even without O'Driscoll they couldn't have asked for a better draw. They'll be the top group winner.

Pool 4 Winner- Leicester Runner Up- Clermont
Expect Ulster to be tough as ever to beat in Ravenhill however it's difficult to see them even winning two home games. This pool is between two teams only. Leicester need no introduction and Clermont are some outfit on their day and expect them to finally have a good campaign. 2 teams should qualify due to the presence of whipping boys Aironi. 3 wins would signal a good campaign for Ulster, who as quarter finalists last year are desperately unlucky with the draw.

Pool 5 Winner- Biarritz
Probably the forgettable group of the campaign (similar to Northampton's last year) and should see Biarritz brilliant home form being enough to see them qualify.

Pool 6 Winner- Toulouse Runners up- Quins
The group I'll be paying particular attention to as a Connacht man however it won't be pretty and expect plenty of heavy defeats for the Westerners in their maiden European campaign. A win over Gloucester at home is the only realistic target. Toulouse and Quins will run riot in this group and it may come down to bonus points or points difference to determine who'll top group.

thomond2006

CatFromHue wrote: »

Also Tom May seems to add a bit more to their three quarter play than Downey.

Yeah he's seem to be getting a lot of gametime with Saints. He previously was at Toulon for 2 seasons, last season he was nowhere near their first XV.

CatFromHue

cgpg5 wrote: »

Pool 5 Winner- Biarritz
Probably the forgettable group of the campaign (similar to Northampton's last year) and should see Biarritz brilliant home form being enough to see them qualify.

Biarritz have only won one game this season and that was away!

While I think Biarritz will get better I think this group is between Saracens and Ospreys.

[Jackass]

justsomebloke wrote: »

If any of the pools are close this year you aren't allowed do any of the maths involved in showing possible outcomes:pac:

Haha touché! Lonnnnnnnnng day working / reading / writing whilst having one eye on laptop. I just can bare to think.

But if we win in Montpellier, those 6.5 points should go far towards reaching our target of √20, as long as they don't get the losing pi. You just leave the calculations up to me.

cgpg5

CatFromHue wrote: »

Biarritz have only won one game this season and that was away!

While I think Biarritz will get better I think this group is between Saracens and Ospreys.

They're a good European team though, the Saints were relegated and made HC semi in the same season if I remember correctly. Ospreys are on the way down I reckon. Sarries will be tough to beat quite unpredictable though..

errlloyd

I love the way most people are putting through all four teams from leinsters group last season, as well as the three teams they beat in the knockout. Perhaps we're overrating some of who we beat.

Podge_irl

errlloyd wrote: »

I love the way most people are putting through all four teams from leinsters group last season, as well as the three teams they beat in the knockout. Perhaps we're overrating some of who we beat.

Yeah. In hindsight the top 3 in France and the top 3 in England just aren't that strong.

vinny chase

God, they Northampton certainly have improved when you look at those sides.

Vas is streets ahead of the over-the-hill at that stage in his career Reihana or the fairly average Paul Diggin. Tom May is a good footballer, with good distribution and offers plenty from the twelve slot. Lamb can be flaky, but when he's good he's very good.

Guys like Martyn Roberts & Paul Doran-Jones give them strength in depth they didn't have last season, and you'd imagine guys like Calum Clark, Courtney Lawes and Tom Wood will only continue to improve.

Big, big test for Munster. Saying that; there is still nowhere tougher than Thomond on a big European night. Guys like O'Connell and O'Gara live for these occasions.