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Heineken Cup - General Discussion Thread

  • 01-11-2011 5:18pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,193 ✭✭✭[Jackass]


    Just thought I'd get the ball rolling on the Heineken Cup talk from all of the pools and oppisition form watch etc.

    Some good articles posted this weekend surrounding the launch of the Heineken Cup.
    Heineken Cup Is Launched In Dublin

    HeinekenCup1112launch_Dublinprovinces.jpg

    The rugby season is set to explode into life across Europe when the 17th Heineken Cup takes centre stage next week. The Irish launch of the tournament was held today at the Convention Centre in Dublin.
    Share
    Europe's finest will go into battle over the weekend of November 11/12/13, chasing the biggest prize in world club rugby with all roads leading to the final at Twickenham Stadium on Saturday, May 19.

    Leinster will be chasing a third European crown in the space of four seasons when the race to reach Twickenham kicks off with the reigning champions travelling to face tournament new boys Montpellier in Pool 2.

    The Irish provinces have scooped five titles in 16 years, and reached two other finals, and their numbers will be swelled to four for the first time this season with Connacht joining Munster, Ulster and the reigning champions among the 24 elite teams.

    Connacht's John Muldoon and Eric Elwood joined the other provinces' captains and coaches at the launch on the banks of the River Liffey.

    Back rower Muldoon said: "Obviously we are very excited to be here. We've been a long time knocking at the door but it's great to be competing now at Heineken Cup level.

    "Just looking down at our pool, it doesn't get any easier the more you look at it. It's going to be a big challenge. It's one we're really looking forward to and we can't wait to get stuck into the pool matches.

    "Everyone in Connacht, we know we're going to have to step it up over the next few weeks - we've got a lot of tough games coming up.

    "This is where we want to be. We've been wishing to be in this competition for a long time, we're here now and we've got to back it up and show that we deserve to be in it."
    Elwood set for Heineken Cup adventure

    Eric Elwood has christened Pool 6 rivals Toulouse as the 'Manchester United of European club rugby' and likened their legendary coach Guy Noves to 'Sir Alex Ferguson'.
    Share
    Speaking at the Irish launch of the 2011/12 Heineken Cup in Dublin, the Connacht Rugby coach couldn't hide his enthusiasm as he prepares his team to make their bow in the Heineken Cup after 15 seasons, and 98 matches, in the Amlin Challenge Cup.

    Connacht kick-off their great Heineken Cup adventure at the Twickenham Stoop on Friday, 11 November, against reigning Amlin Challenge Cup holders Harlequins.

    Then they host four times winners Toulouse at the re-vamped Sportsground in Round 2 a week later in a fixture that will see the west of Ireland province play their 100th European fixture.

    And Elwood has been at the Sportsground from day one, helping Connacht to beat Padova 34-12 in their opening game in the Amlin Challenge Cup way back on 12 October, 1996.

    "With all the changes we've made at the ground, and the fact we are in the Heineken Cup for the first time this season, we're hoping to get 9,000 fans into the Sportsground for the game against Toulouse," said Elwood.

    "That's a far cry from where we were in 1996 and I'm both pleased and proud to have been involved with the province as a player or coach since that day. Harlequins will be our debut in the Heineken Cup, but everyone in Galway is looking forward to our first home game in the tournament.

    "Toulouse are the Man United of European club rugby and Guy Noves is the equivalent of Sir Alex Ferguson. I guess it is a bit like having Crawley Town hosting Man United in the third round of the FA Cup."
    Saints even stronger this season

    Northampton skipper Dylan Hartley believes the Saints will be stronger than ever when they chase Heineken Cup glory this season.
    Share
    Hartley and co enjoyed an outstanding campaign last time out as they reached a first final since 2000 thanks to eight successive victories prior to defeat to Leinster.

    The East Midlands outfit led 22-6 at half-time in the competition's showpiece event at the Millennium Stadium before falling to a 33-22 defeat that has been hard to forget.

    Northampton faded badly in the final 40 minutes of their European adventure but Hartley believes things could be different this time around thanks to a greater strength in depth and another year's experience within the squad.

    "As we've learnt in the last three years, the Heineken Cup isn't easy," said Hartley.

    "Our run to the final was a great run, but as Jim (Saints boss Jim Mallinder) said to us, you've got to play for 80 minutes and we didn't do that.

    "There were a lot of things around that as to why we were tired but we've got to be frank - we threw away the Heineken Cup and that does hurt.

    "We haven't really lost anyone this season, though. We've added to the squad and that's given us a bit more depth, which was probably what we needed last year. We were fighting on all fronts and we pretty much played the same team every week. This year, we've bolstered the squad and we're stronger throughout.

    "It's not about fatigue on the day: it's about fatigue leading up to the big matches. It's mentally tiring getting yourself up for games every week at that stage of the season. If you've got competition for places, with people who are hungry to play, that's got to be good for the squad.

    "Two years ago we lost to Munster in Limerick in the quarter-final and we said we'd learn from that. We obviously did as we went two steps further. You can't get any bigger big-match experience than the Heineken Cup Final so will learn from that, too.

    "You look at teams like Munster: how many finals and semi-finals did they lose before the won the Heineken Cup? As a squad, we're still quite young and I think we've got our best years ahead of us."

    Talking of Munster, it's the double European Champions who provide Northampton's first test in this year's tournament.

    Thomond Park is the venue for the Saints' opening Pool 1 fixture a week on Saturday and Hartley is under no illusions as to the size of the challenge he and his team-mates will face at one of the continent's most revered stadiums.

    But rather than be intimidated by the hostile atmosphere at a ground at which Northampton played at twice the season before last, Hartley intends to embrace the kind of challenge that only the Heineken Cup can bring.

    He does admit, however, that Munster remain one of the benchmarks of the club game, a side that Saints intend to emulate when it comes to performing consistently on the European stage.

    "Munster have been to finals and lost finals so they've been through disappointment as a group," added Hartley, whose team also face the Scarlets and Castres Olympique in the group stages.

    "That's the biggest thing: they are a group. They've had the same group for a long time and we're building towards something like that. They're a team I look at and would like to learn from.

    "We're going away to Adam's Park to play Wasps this weekend, which is a tough place to play. If we can pick up a W there, that will put a bit of confidence into the team going out to Limerick. But not many teams go there and win so there's plenty of motivation."

    And as for the standard of rugby on display in Europe's premier club competition, Hartley has no doubt that it just keeps on getting better and better year after year.

    "The Heineken Cup feels like it goes up a notch every time. In terms of intensity, the final last year and the quarters and the semis, those games are as close to an international as you get.

    "The coolest thing about it as that you're playing with your clubmates. Some of those lads will never get to play international rugby so to be on that stage with your mates is pretty special."


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Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,257 ✭✭✭Hagz


    Home
    Northampton
    Leinster
    Leicester
    Saracens

    Away
    Racing Metro
    Toulouse
    Clermont
    Harlequins

    Winner: Leinster

    Just writing it down to look back on and see how wrong I was.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    My 8QF teams
    Home
    Leinster
    Northampton
    Toulouse
    Saracens

    Away
    Clermont
    Racing
    Munster
    Leicster/Ulster




  • John Muldoon with the beard of the century


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,193 ✭✭✭[Jackass]


    My Predictions:

    Pool 1
    Northampton (Q)
    Munster (Q)
    Scarlets
    Castres

    Pool 2
    London Irish (Q)
    Cardiff
    Racing Metro
    Edinburgh

    Pool 3
    Leinster (Q)
    Bath
    Monpellier
    Glasgow

    Pool 4
    Leicester (Q)
    Clermont (Q)
    Ulster
    Aironi

    Pool 5
    Biarritz (Q)
    Ospreys
    Saracens
    Treviso

    Pool 6
    Toulouse (Q)
    Gloucester
    Harlequins
    Connacht

    Quarter Final
    Leinster v Clermont
    London Irish v Munster
    Biarritz v Toulouse
    Northampton v Leicester

    Semi Final
    Leinster v Toulouse
    London Irish v Leicester

    Final
    Leinster v Leicester

    (despite Leicester awful start to season)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,889 ✭✭✭tolosenc


    Leinster
    Toulouse
    Saints
    Saffacens
    Tigers
    Racing
    Clermont
    Hairsprays

    With Leinster, Toulouse, Saints and Leicester making the semis.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,889 ✭✭✭tolosenc


    John Muldoon with the beard of the century

    Did you miss the Canadian team at the World Cup?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,163 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Wonder what Twickers will be like for the final, there hasnt been an Irish side playing in a HC final there in over a decade. Lots of London based Irish expats if Leinster/Munster make it I'd say. London should be a hell of a lot easier to get accommodation in than Cardiff/Edinburgh too. Plus probably the best connected city with Dublin flight-wise in Europe. Between the lot I'd say an Irish team would have fantastic support for a final there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,889 ✭✭✭tolosenc


    Blut2 wrote: »
    Plus probably the best connected city with Dublin flight-wise in Europe.

    If I'm not mistaken, that's the busiest air-route in Europe. The Heathrow route alone is 4th, plus there are 3 other airports.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,770 ✭✭✭danthefan


    I think the Munster/Northampton game in Thomond is going to be fascinating. I reckon Northampton will feel they've a real shot.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    danthefan wrote: »
    I think the Munster/Northampton game in Thomond is going to be fascinating. I reckon Northampton will feel they've a real shot.

    It better be, I paid €50 for a ticket from the Northampton website!

    Can't wait for it. I think Northampton's weakness is at halfback but they're strong everywhere else. Their back three is just lightning (Artmeyev, Ashton, Foden) and will cause us problems.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    I thought Duffy was the Connacht captain?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,803 ✭✭✭porterbelly


    I thought Duffy was the Connacht captain?

    He is, Muldoon was filling in for him. Possibly Duffy has a knock from the weekend and needed to stay behind


  • Site Banned Posts: 5,346 ✭✭✭wixfjord


    danthefan wrote: »
    I think the Munster/Northampton game in Thomond is going to be fascinating. I reckon Northampton will feel they've a real shot.

    Yup, really looking fowrard to that indeed. Northampton will want to push on this year, and have the experience of Thomond.


  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 28,161 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Jaysus, I can't wait


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Hrmm, trivial point, but is every team's color in pool 3 blue?

    Also, Leinster worked very hard to ensure a home quarter last season.. But I forget how we secured the home semi advantage as well. Can someone explain that to me? I presume the home quarter is given based on the points acquired in the pool stages, but how does it effect the semi?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    .ak wrote: »
    Hrmm, trivial point, but is every team's color in pool 3 [COLOR="Navy"]blue[/COLOR]?

    Also, Leinster worked very hard to ensure a home quarter last season.. But I forget how we secured the home semi advantage as well. Can someone explain that to me? I presume the home quarter is given based on the points acquired in the pool stages, but how does it effect the semi?
    Semi places are drawn.

    Leinster secured the home semi by being lucky. If they have a home quarter this year they'll have the same 50/50 chance of a home semi.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Pool 1
    Munster (Q)
    Northampton (Q)
    Scarlets
    Castres

    Pool 2
    Racing Metro (Q)
    Cardiff Blues
    London Irish
    Edinburgh

    Pool 3
    Leinster (Q)
    Bath
    Montpellier
    Glasgow

    Pool 4
    Clermont (Q)
    Leicester
    Ulster
    Aironi

    Pool 5
    Saracens (Q)
    Ospreys
    Biarritz
    Treviso

    Pool 6
    Toulouse (Q)
    Harlequins (Q)
    Gloucester
    Connacht


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Pool 1
    Munster (Q)
    Northampton (Q)
    Scarlets
    Castres

    Pool 2
    Racing Metro (Q)
    Cardiff Blues
    London Irish
    Edinburgh

    Pool 3
    Leinster (Q)
    Bath
    Montpellier
    Glasgow

    Pool 4
    Clermont (Q)
    Leicester
    Ulster
    Aironi

    Pool 5
    Saracens (Q)
    Ospreys
    Biarritz
    Treviso

    Pool 6
    Toulouse (Q)
    Harlequins (Q)
    Gloucester
    Connacht
    Would be the first time neither pool with an Italian team failed to produce a second qualifier


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭totallegend


    Is

    Pool 2
    London Irish
    Cardiff
    Racing Metro
    Edinburgh

    the weakest pool in a long while? A lot depends on Racing's attitude I suppose, but if you compare it to the pool Ulster ended up with... London Irish will fancy themselves for that pool despite their mixed start to the season.

    In related news, Delon Armitage gets a five-week ban
    http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/rugby_union/15648457.stm
    so misses first two HC games. Hilarious stuff, his ban gets increased due to his previous poor record (this is his FOURTH suspension in 2011), then he gets three weeks taken off for being contrite and conducting himself well at the hearing?? Mixed messages there.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,978 ✭✭✭✭irishbucsfan


    Personally don't think 2nd place in Group A will get through. Also would love to get odds on the runner up of that pool winning the Amlin.

    I think Biarritz/Ospreys will go through instead.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Would be the first time neither pool with an Italian team failed to produce a second qualifier

    I think Treviso will make life tough for those teams.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    Is

    Pool 2
    London Irish
    Cardiff
    Racing Metro
    Edinburgh

    the weakest pool in a long while? A lot depends on Racing's attitude I suppose, but if you compare it to the pool Ulster ended up with... London Irish will fancy themselves for that pool despite their mixed start to the season.
    Weak pool but potentially pretty competitive despite that


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Just reading that thing about Delon. The dude doesn't know when to stop does he?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Hrm, also anyone know where to view the TV listings? I have UPC, so no red button etc., etc.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭totallegend


    Pool 1
    Munster (Q)
    Northampton (Q)
    Scarlets
    Castres
    I have to say I don't see this happening; I think Munster will win the group but Castres are going to take points off people in France and the Scarlets, on their day, can beat anyone. So, assuming Munster and Northampton trade home wins, it's going to come down to points garnered against the other two and I think whoever loses out on the head to head between the big two will be sampling the delights of the Amlin. I think Northampton are mentally fragile and they'll miss out, but jaysus going to Franklins Gardens on the last day of the pool will be some challenge.

    If Montpelier are as disinterested as "iroced" seems to think they will be, Bath could sneak in, but you would have to fancy the runner up of Saracens/Biarritz/Ospreys.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35 chamaid


    With BOD out for a while Leinster really need Nc Fadden up to the mark. could make for an interesting 6N campaign also


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭totallegend


    .ak wrote: »
    Hrm, also anyone know where to view the TV listings? I have UPC, so no red button etc., etc.

    But you have Sky Sports?
    http://www.skysports.com/tv_guide
    plus TG4 have highlights on Saturday night, 9pm I think.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    But you have Sky Sports?
    http://www.skysports.com/tv_guide
    plus TG4 have highlights on Saturday night, 9pm I think.

    Yep, got sky sports.. Thanks for the link!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,889 ✭✭✭tolosenc


    Would be the first time neither pool with an Italian team failed to produce a second qualifier

    Realistically, in pools 1 through 3, you're not coming out unless you win it. 4, 5, and 5 (Aironi, Treviso and Connact's groups) will produce the best runners up, and the other will almost certainly make the Amlin. One of most likely Munster, Cardiff and Bath will be out on their ear. Of those, I fancy it to be Bath as I reckon Leinster will beat them both times.

    So the last 8 of the Heineken will be:
    Leinster Rugby v Ospreys
    Stade Toulousain v ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Northampton Saints v Racing Métro 92
    Saracens v Leicester Tigers

    And the last 8 in the Amlin will be:
    RC Toulonnais v Sale Sharks
    USA Perpignan v Cardiff Blues
    London Wasps v Munster Rugby
    SF Paris v Harlequin FC

    IMO


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 697 ✭✭✭pajunior


    tolosenc wrote: »
    Realistically, in pools 1 through 3, you're not coming out unless you win it. 4, 5, and 5 (Aironi, Treviso and Connact's groups) will produce the best runners up, and the other will almost certainly make the Amlin. One of most likely Munster, Cardiff and Bath will be out on their ear. Of those, I fancy it to be Bath as I reckon Leinster will beat them both times.

    So the last 8 of the Heineken will be:
    Leinster Rugby v Ospreys
    Stade Toulousain v ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Northampton Saints v Racing Métro 92
    Saracens v Leicester Tigers

    And the last 8 in the Amlin will be:
    RC Toulonnais v Sale Sharks
    USA Perpignan v Cardiff Blues
    London Wasps v Munster Rugby
    SF Paris v Harlequin FC

    IMO

    That would be one hell of a lineup for the Challenge Cup.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,699 ✭✭✭bamboozle


    Pool 1
    Munster (Q)
    Northampton (Q)
    Scarlets
    Castres

    Pool 2
    Racing Metro (Q)
    Cardiff Blues
    London Irish
    Edinburgh

    Pool 3
    Leinster (Q)
    Bath
    Montpellier
    Glasgow

    Pool 4
    Clermont (Q)
    Leicester
    Ulster
    Aironi

    Pool 5
    Saracens (Q)
    Ospreys
    Biarritz
    Treviso

    Pool 6
    Toulouse (Q)
    Harlequins (Q)
    Gloucester
    Connacht

    there's a suprise Serge Blanco's Biarritz have an Italian team in their group


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,193 ✭✭✭[Jackass]


    I can't see Munster not making it through again. By hook or by crook I think they'll get out of their group, as a best runner up imo.

    I think the new system with the Amlin is good. Has mostly top teams in the knockouts in this format, as apposed to one or two mediocre English sides in the past, and lends it a lot more credability and makes it worth winning if you find yourself in it. A proper "UEFA Cup" or whatever it's called these days. But good to have a decent second tier European competition.

    Very excited about this Heineken Cup. Nervous as hell, and hope Leinster can do well without BO'D, but we'll see. Should be great viewing though. This weekend is absolutely key for both Leinster and Munster, the result will go a long way to deciding how they fair come the business end of the groups.

    If you offered me a 3 - 0 in Montpellier, I'd bite your arm off!

    If Connacht were to assume they weren't going to make it out of their group first time, then I'm glad they at least got 3 big teams to get the crowds in and give them a good taste of European rugby and what it's all about.

    Worryingly, I think if there's going to be a surprise package this season, it'll be Montpellier. I also think Clermont will have a good tilt at it this season, so hope to avoid them or get them at home if we meet in the knockouts. They're my dark horse to win it.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,193 ✭✭✭[Jackass]


    bamboozle wrote: »
    there's a suprise Serge Blanco's Biarritz have an Italian team in their group

    In the last 8 seasons, they've had an Italian team SEVEN TIMES. Let's not make it obvious lads.

    The one time they didn't, they had Dragons and Glasgow in their group...




  • Going to manage to get to;
    • Bath v Leinster
    • Gloucester v Connacht
    and hopefully
    • Northampton v Munster
    in the group stages. So close to making it 4/4 with the
    • Leicester v Ulster
    game next Saturday but unfortunately there's 3 of us in the office with birthdays around that date and that's been selected as the date for the party...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,599 ✭✭✭✭CIARAN_BOYLE


    game next Saturday but unfortunately there's 3 of us in the office with birthdays around that date and that's been selected as the date for the party...
    Group trip to the match and then a few drinks afterwards? Some party


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  • Group trip to the match and then a few drinks afterwards? Some party

    Only rugby fan in work, lads here are all soccer and cricket through and through unfortunately.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,941 ✭✭✭jacothelad


    Only rugby fan in work, lads here are all soccer and cricket through and through unfortunately.

    You could educate them, but maybe on another occasion. I actually wouldn't recommend the Tigers / Ulster game to anyone on our current showing. Without a decent front row for that game we are going to get annihilated. It could be X rated stuff.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,266 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatFromHue


    I'm surprised people are putting Munster as top of their group. Northampton are better than they were two years and it could be argued that Munster are weaker. Northampton will also have experience of playing in Thomond Park and will be kicking themselves for not winning there before. Plus the last and possibly deciding game is in England, not Limerick.

    It's hard to know what to expect from Lanelli and Castres. I was looking at Castres results from last year and other than the last game when they were out the games they lost were all by less than a try i.e. other than the last game they were competeing the whole time. They've won 7/10 and are third in the Top 14.

    I think Munster will have a real fight on their hands to get out of this group. Considering the teams they also have to play in the Pro 12 during the Heineken pool stages I can see Munster struggling!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 872 ✭✭✭smurphy29


    [Jackass] wrote: »
    In the last 8 seasons, they've had an Italian team SEVEN TIMES. Let's not make it obvious lads.

    The one time they didn't, they had Dragons and Glasgow in their group...
    Yeah, there's a reason for it though. It's because teams of the same nationality have to be kept apart. There were three French teams in the fourth seeds this year, so they couldn't get one of those - they had to get either an Italian team or Connacht.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭totallegend


    smurphy29 wrote: »
    Yeah, there's a reason for it though. It's because teams of the same nationality have to be kept apart. There were three French teams in the fourth seeds this year, so they couldn't get one of those - they had to get either an Italian team or Connacht.

    Fair enough this year, but it's the fact that they get easier opposition every year... No-one really believes it's fixed (do they?) but Biarritz do seem to get an easier draw every year.

    [yes, we know they lost to Aironi last year]


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,193 ✭✭✭[Jackass]


    Well it preceeds the ranking and tiers, but also, since the ranking came in, they've consistantly been top tier, as have Toulouse, who over the 8 years Biarritz got 7 Italian draws, they got a big fat ZERO Italian draws.

    Try and flip a coin and have it land on the same side 7 times in a row. After a couple of hours and thousands of attempts, you'll find the probability of this occuring is astronomical.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 697 ✭✭✭pajunior


    If I remember any of my maths I think it's only 1/128.

    2 to the power of 7


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭totallegend


    Just wondering, who will people be cheering for outside of the Irish teams?

    For me, it will be Clermont, I always want them to do well but they always get hard draws. I'll also try to see as much of the Scarlets as I can, some of their rugby last year was sublime.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,308 ✭✭✭✭.ak


    Just wondering, who will people be cheering for outside of the Irish teams?

    For me, it will be Clermont, I always want them to do well but they always get hard draws. I'll also try to see as much of the Scarlets as I can, some of their rugby last year was sublime.

    Clermont for me too. And to be honest, I think they'll win it this year.

    Also catch all of Tolouse's matches... always entertaining stuff.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,193 ✭✭✭[Jackass]


    pajunior wrote: »
    If I remember any of my maths I think it's only 1/128.

    2 to the power of 7

    :o Correct!

    But still, 1 / 128 is a 1.28% chance of this actually happening by random chance, which is pretty slim.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,770 ✭✭✭danthefan


    [Quote=[Jackass];75383237]
    pajunior wrote: »
    If I remember any of my maths I think it's only 1/128.

    2 to the power of 7

    :o Correct!

    But still, 1 / 128 is a 1.28% chance of this actually happening by random chance, which is pretty slim.[/Quote]

    It's about a 0.78% chance.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,407 ✭✭✭✭justsomebloke


    [Jackass] wrote: »
    But still, 1 / 128 is a 1.28% chance of this actually happening by random chance, which is pretty slim.

    If any of the pools are close this year you aren't allowed do any of the maths involved in showing possible outcomes:pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 697 ✭✭✭pajunior


    [Jackass] wrote: »
    :o Correct!

    But still, 1 / 128 is a 1.28% chance of this actually happening by random chance, which is pretty slim.

    Not really because it isn't always a 1/2 chance every year. For instanct this year it was a 2/3 chance of pulling an Italian team.
    Also they've gotten an Italian team 7 out of 8 years so we would then have to take that into account.

    All in all, yes it's highly unlikely but not ridiculous.

    Also 1 in 128 is no 1.28%
    Back to school for you I think :D


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,266 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatFromHue


    The more I look at the Northampton team the harder it gets for Munster!

    For their last two games the squad was:
    Northampton: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jon Clarke, 12 Tom May, 11 Vasily Artemyev, 10 Ryan Lamb, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Phil Dowson, 7 Tom Wood, 6 Calum Clark, 5 Courtney Lawes, 4 Samu Manoa 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Soane Tonga'uiha.
    Replacements: 16 Mike Haywood, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Paul Doran Jones, 19 Mark Sorenson, 20 Roger Wilson, 21 Martin Roberts, 22 Stephen Myler, 23 Scott Armstrong.

    Northampton: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Jon Clarke, 12 Tom May, 11 Vasily Artemyev, 10 Ryan Lamb, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Roger Wilson, 7 Phil Dowson, 6 Calum Clark, 5 Mark Sorenson, 4 Courtney Lawes, 3 Brian Mujati, 2 Dylan Hartley (c), 1 Soane Tonga'uiha.
    Replacements: 16 Mike Haywood, 17 Alex Waller, 18 Paul Doran Jones, 19 Samu Manoa, 20 Tom Wood, 21 Martin Roberts, 22 Stephen Myler, 23 George Pisi.

    The saints have pace in their back 3 that Munster can't match. They've three, while not world class, good quality centres. In the pack they've a good back and second row. Then they've a fantastic front row.

    Where Munster are better are in the half backs and second row. Everywhere else I can see the Northampton team stronger! They're also a lot more of a settled team than Munster who were missing so many at the World Cup.

    For the last two years they've finished in the top 4 in England and if you think back to their Heineken Quarter against Ulster they were able to up the tempo in the pack which ultimately broke Ulsters back.

    Form wise Northampton are doing well in winning their last three games whereas Munster have lost 3 of their last 4!

    Munster then follow this game up away to Castres who have lost only once at home this season. They were beaten by Racing Metro but have won against Stade Francais and Toulouse though.

    This could be unfortunately a painful experience for Munster in the Heineken this season as I think they have to win the group to get true. I think Northampton will though.




  • such a massive front row. Tonga'uiha and Mujati are going to cause nightmares for Munster.

    When you have a pack like Northampton's, and a back 3 like they do, it's tough to really defend against them as you see threats in close and out wide and gaps in between. Commit yourself to one or the other and you leave holes, don't commit enough and they take you apart.

    Munster's defence held strong against Leinster, but this is a whole other level of pack intensity.


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