US Sports Thread (NBA, NCAA, MBL, NHL, NFL, etc.)

Eire-Dearg · 09-10-2011 3:12pm

Titans +3
Texans -4.5

Eagles -3
Giants -10

Eagles -3
Patriots -7
Lions -5
Packers -5.5
Chargers -3.5

AdrianII · 09-10-2011 5:13pm

gone with these for the early matchs, if they come off then i will throw everything on Pats -7 to beat the Jets

AdrianII · 10-10-2011 12:39am

My luck was in today, won with the overs in the previous post, lost the accy and threw some on new england at -7.5 at 9.15pm, i got a bit nervous in the 4th quarter and decided to cover my bets so i did the jets at +9.5(they were down by 12 i think).

patriots won by 9 which meant that orginal bet and the cover both came in :eek:

El Horseboxo · 10-10-2011 6:46pm

If you take a bet before the game and then watch the game and betting site in play you can get some good middle opportunities. Works well with basketball more so than football.

Adamcp898 · 10-10-2011 7:46pm

Bears +7 is starting to look mighty tempting

padraig_f · 10-10-2011 7:47pm

As I expected, all the money going on the Lions today, were -5 yesterday, currently -7, and the way it's going, could be over a touchdown before kick-off. Bookies will be rooting for the Bears tonight.

padraig_f · 10-10-2011 7:50pm

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Bears +7 is starting to look mighty tempting

I'm on the Lions -6 but if you like the Bears, I'd say wait a few hours, a chance it goes to +7.5 now.

Adamcp898 · 10-10-2011 8:49pm

padraig_f wrote: »

I'm on the Lions -6 but if you like the Bears, I'd say wait a few hours, a chance it goes to +7.5 now.

Yeah I'm kinda starting to go on the opinion of the law of averages says they have to lose at some point, not the soundest betting philosophy to follow but the Lions will either lose or blow them away but they surely can't scrape another

El Horseboxo · 11-10-2011 1:01am

I quite like the over 47 in this game. Detroit pass on 62% of their plays on average this season. Means the clock stops a lot allowing more time for scores. Chicago run the ball even less. They pass on average 64%. 2 pass heavy teams, both teams are in the top 5 for scoring defense and Chicago are in the top 3 for special team scoring. Also MNF game have a habit of going over.

Cue a low scoring game.

padraig_f · 11-10-2011 1:33am

For the record, the line goes off at Lions -6.5, sorry if I put you off that Bears +7 (though it was still available for much of the day).

I'm on the under because I've little confidence in the Bears offense. Devin Hester's brilliant and all but he's not gonna run in a kick-off return every game.

Adamcp898 · 11-10-2011 12:44pm

Lucky I decided to give it time to see if it would get higher than 7, when I checked again it was 6.5 so I left it

padraig_f · 12-10-2011 12:43pm

padraig_f wrote: »

My bets this week.

6pm:
Eagles -3 @ Bills
Vikings -3 vs. Cardinals
9pm:
Jets +9 @ Pats (moved to +7 now)
SNF:
Packers -4 @ Falcons
MNF:
Lions -6 vs. Bears
Under: 47.5

Last week: 3-2. To date: 9-6.

Had a good week, 4-1-1, brings season total to 13-7.

Trying to get on lines earlier in the week as I think there's better value then (getting +9 on the Jets last week got me a push, if I took the +7 that it was at kick-off, I'd have lost).

Some early picks this week:

6pm:
Eagles +0 @ Redskins
Bills +3 @ Giants
Lions -4 vs. 49ers

9pm
Ravens -6.5 vs. Texans (gone to -7.5 today)

MNF:
Jets -7 vs. Dolphins

A few I'm waiting for possible line moves before betting on:

Bears -3 vs. Vikings (waiting for -2.5)
Cowboys 7 vs. Patriots (waiting for +7.5)
Cowboys ML @ Patriots (wait for slightly better than 5/2)
Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers (not sure it goes to -3 but let's see)

Peyton Manning · 12-10-2011 1:09pm

Nice little tip, no team playing against Cam Newton has covered the spread at any level of football since October 2010

Adamcp898 · 12-10-2011 2:06pm

Cam Newton wrote: »

Nice little tip, no team playing against Cam Newton has covered the spread at any level of football since October 2010

Cheers for the heads up on that one Tommy, would nearly be half tempted to go big on Ok State

Peyton Manning · 12-10-2011 2:22pm

Adamcp898 wrote: »

Cheers for the heads up on that one Tommy, would nearly be half tempted to go big on Ok State

It's a fascinating statistic. I actually think the Panthers could well win straight up this weekend, never mind the spread!

Adamcp898 · 12-10-2011 2:29pm

Cam Newton wrote: »

It's a fascinating statistic. I actually think the Panthers could well win straight up this weekend, never mind the spread!

Was replying in the wrong thread to your double on Ok State/Georgia Tech but that's another interesting one on Cam. You can't go too long with some of his stats without eventually stumbling upon a win

JONJO THE MISER · 12-10-2011 9:13pm

First bet of the hockey season for me tonight.
Going with Vancouver to beat Philly at 11/10.

stingerro · 12-10-2011 10:19pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

First bet of the hockey season for me tonight.
Going with Vancouver to beat Philly at 11/10.

Read some analyses suggesting going under in this match - 2 good goalies, string defenses, potential for high level and close match in play off style.

JONJO THE MISER · 13-10-2011 12:05am

Was thinking about going with unders but went with straight out bet.
The unders is 5.5 which is a good bet but i feel Vancouver will win this one out.

stingerro · 13-10-2011 2:57am

4:5 10 minutes before end of regular time. Quite far away from under 5.5 I expected

JONJO THE MISER · 13-10-2011 2:59am

Tll me about it :mad:, vancouver trowing it away everytime they get a goal 1 minute later philly do, 10 minutes left , come on the cannucks:cool:

JONJO THE MISER · 13-10-2011 3:00am

Power Play cannucks, come on boys now is the time.

DB74 · 13-10-2011 1:22pm

Cam Newton wrote: »

Nice little tip, no team playing against Cam Newton has covered the spread at any level of football since October 2010

Arizona Cardinals covered the spread of 6.5 pts in Week 1

I will admit that the line opened at 7.0 but the stats generally use the closing line for stuff like this

Also here's a link to an article about the general uselessness of stats like "has covered the spread since ..."

http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/6240/when-it-comes-the-point-spread-sometimes-numbers-do-lie

Peyton Manning · 13-10-2011 1:30pm

DB74 wrote: »

.

Arizona Cardinals covered the spread of 6.5 pts in Week 1

Opening spread was -7., they didn't cover. Last team to cover was Kentucky vs Auburn on October 9th 2010.

padraig_f · 13-10-2011 3:01pm

Cam Newton wrote: »

Nice little tip, no team playing against Cam Newton has covered the spread at any level of football since October 2010

It's an interesting historical stat but there's an article on Grantland yesterday saying that ATS records have very little predictive value for future results: When It Comes to the Point Spread, Sometimes Numbers Do Lie

It may even be the case that they predict the opposite, i.e. as lines get inflated, and there's a regression to the mean, that teams with a good ATS history will have below-average future ATS records.

There's another example of this going on right now. Totals in the NFL have been going over at an amazing rate this season, every week so far overs have won, sometimes by dramatic amounts (see NFL Spread Sheet: Over and over again).

Because overs are winning ATS, is this a reason for continuing to bet overs? For me, it's the opposite. As the overs have been winning, bookies have inflating the lines every week. If we see a regression to the mean, you'll have some very inflated lines, so I'm on the lookout for unders at the moment.

Re: Panthers @ Falcons game
I thought about this some more and I don't believe it's going to hit -3, so I'm going to take the Falcons -3.5.

3 is the hardest number for lines to move on or off of because so many games are decided by 3. This one is hovering between -3.5 and -4 so I can't see it hitting 3.

I watched the Panthers-Saints on condensed gamepass last night (great feature for NFL bettors actually) and I think the Panthers were slightly flattered by the result. Newton's a talent, no doubt, but the offense as a whole still looks quite raw. They're relying on kind of improvised big plays from Newton, which I don't think will always come off. There was a significant contrast between him and Brees, where Brees was moving the chains methodically by carving up the Panthers' secondary on short passes. You can see it in the passing stats:

Brees: 32-45-1 (343 yards)
Newton: 16-31-1 (219 yards)

2 of the Carolina TDs were horrible defending, the guy really should've been tackled 30 yards out, but the Saints matador-style tackling let them run in. I think Atlanta will make it more difficult for them defensively.

Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers

JONJO THE MISER · 13-10-2011 9:01pm

Just looking at that article, there is bound to be value to be had on the unders this weekend as they keep making the overs higher and higher, it will even out after a while, so i think its time to hit the unders.

padraig_f · 14-10-2011 2:06pm

JONJO THE MISER wrote: »

Just looking at that article, there is bound to be value to be had on the unders this weekend as they keep making the overs higher and higher, it will even out after a while, so i think its time to hit the unders.

There's another argument that scores are going up because QBs and WRs are protected more by rule changes, there's obviously some truth to that, but I don't think it's that much different to last season to justify increasing the lines that much.

As an experiment, let's see how many totals go over from now until the end of the season. Up to now, overs have gone: 48-28-1. If there's an over-reaction in the line-increases (which is my theory), unders should come out ahead from now on. If scores are really going up so much and bookies have been slow to react, overs should continue to win.

Cam Newtons ATS record will be interesting to monitor as well, but there'll be a higher sample-size with the over-under lines. I'll track the total here each week.

DB74 · 14-10-2011 2:53pm

Here's the average points per game over the last 6 full NFL seasons. The first figure is the average per game for Weeks 1-5 of each season, the second figure is the average per game over Weeks 6-17, and the last figure is the average per game for the full 17-game regular season

2005: 40.68 : 41.43 : 41.21
2006: 39.41 : 42.09 : 41.32
2007: 41.92 : 43.99 : 43.38
2008: 45.01 : 43.67 : 44.06
2009: 42.43 : 43.14 : 42.93
2010: 41.55 : 45.28 : 44.17

2011: 46.31 : ?

In 2008, the points per game in the 1st 5 weeks was well above average (just like in 2011). In fact the "overs" won 43 times from 74 bets with "unders" winning just 30 times and there was 1 push. The average line was 41.7 pts. So would backing the "unders" blindly in 2008 in Weeks 6-17 have shown a profit?

The final results (for Weeks 6-17 in 2008) were

91 - Unders
81 - Overs
10 - Pushes

The average line was almost a full point higher at 42.6

At general odds of 10/11, backing the unders in every game would have shown a very small profit of just 1.81 points from 182 bets

In fact if just one of the wins had been "over" then you would have made a loss of 0.10 points from your 182 bets

padraig_f · 16-10-2011 2:36pm

DB74 wrote: »

Here's the average points per game over the last 6 full NFL seasons.

Very interesting. Did you get those stats from a public database or is it your own? I was just looking to do some similar queries.

padraig_f wrote: »

Some early picks this week:

6pm:
Eagles +0 @ Redskins
Bills +3 @ Giants
Lions -4 vs. 49ers

9pm
Ravens -6.5 vs. Texans (gone to -7.5 today)

MNF:
Jets -7 vs. Dolphins

A few I'm waiting for possible line moves before betting on:

Bears -3 vs. Vikings (waiting for -2.5)
Cowboys 7 vs. Patriots (waiting for +7.5)
Cowboys ML @ Patriots (wait for slightly better than 5/2)
Falcons -3.5 vs. Panthers (not sure it goes to -3 but let's see)

Just to see how the line moves went, some went with me, some against. Kicking myself I didn't take the Cowboys +7, it went down to +6 and is now at +6.5. I'll wait til kickoff to see if the +7 becomes available again. I'll bet them money-line anyway, and stay away on the handicap if it stays at +6.5.

Eagles went from +0 to -3, Ravens went from -6.5 to -7.5 and back to -6.5 suddenly yesterday, sparking a rumour that Andre Johnson might be available (as far as I know he's still out).

Bears went from -3 to -2.5 but I think that was because Julius Peppers was made doubtful, which makes me a lot more lukewarm on the bet. I took it anyway at -2.5 for a small amount.

Seems a lot of people like the Panthers, as the Falcons went from -3.5 to -3 (with some extra juice, 4/5).

Jets went from -7 to -6.5, surprised me that one, still like the Jets though, so doubled down at -6.5.

Good luck everyone.

padraig_f · 16-10-2011 8:00pm

Cowboys line has hit +7, lock it up.

Cowboys +7 @ Patriots
Cowboys ML @ Patriots (13/5)

US Sports Thread (NBA, NCAA, MBL, NHL, NFL, etc.)

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