Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

Juwwi

If it started at -5 and went to -2 then the bookies would of prefaring the try not to be given.

Also theres lots of bookies Im sure they dont all favour the same outcome
so which bookie give's the back hander and with in running betting their book could be swaying to wanting one team to win back to the other within minutes.

I was watching betfair for todays game as the try was scored and the Hurricanes went from 2.0 out to 3.0 in the minute or two before the TMO announced the decision
so I would be surprised if there was anuthing dodgy in this game.

I agree that today's try should'nt of been awarded tho there was no clear evidence of the ball touching grass from what I saw and I was on the -2 .

pcworldisajoke

robbie1977 wrote: »

If it started at -5 and went to -2 then the bookies would of preferring the try not to be given.

Also theres lots of bookies Im sure they dont all favour the same outcome
so which bookie give's the back hander and with in running betting their book could be swaying to wanting one team to win back to the other within minutes.

I was watching betfair for todays game as the try was scored and the Hurricanes went from 2.0 out to 3.0 in the minute or two before the TMO announced the decision
so I would be surprised if there was anuthing dodgy in this game.

I agree that today's try should'nt of been awarded tho there was no clear evidence of the ball touching grass from what I saw and I was on the -2 .

a couple of things robbie.

My contention was that the chiefs went from -2 to -3 in places. Phat was saying it was the other way early in the week. Youd imagine most of the money would come closer to the game, so if im right, and it did go out (chiefs handicap) close to the game then the Chiefs were the biggest liability for the bookies.

I wouldnt imagine trying to sway the tmo on 5050's wouldnt work unless they were all in on it. Which is a bit far fetched, but an interesting concept nonetheless. However, its a multibillion dollar industry, and Multi Billion dollar industries tend to work together through combined lobbying groups/central funding pools for common issues- Oil, Car manufacturers, tobacco, alcohol Property developers etc.

In general, the handicap before the game was -2 and -3 across the board, so in general, they were all the same.

And on betfair, with the small size of rugby markets on there, I doubt that bookies (mainstream bookies) use it. What you're seeing there is lads thinking its not a try so pushing the porice out in the hope of a quick buck.

I dont know what to think to be honest, i like to think im pretty objective, and I mostly remember TMO decisions gong the bookies' ways. Time will tell, and it will take a season worth of some sad git keeping a record to put it to bed once and for all

PhatPiggins

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

robbie1977 wrote: »

If it started at -5 and went to -2 then the bookies would of preferring the try not to be given.

Also theres lots of bookies Im sure they dont all favour the same outcome
so which bookie give's the back hander and with in running betting their book could be swaying to wanting one team to win back to the other within minutes.

I was watching betfair for todays game as the try was scored and the Hurricanes went from 2.0 out to 3.0 in the minute or two before the TMO announced the decision
so I would be surprised if there was anuthing dodgy in this game.

I agree that today's try should'nt of been awarded tho there was no clear evidence of the ball touching grass from what I saw and I was on the -2 .

a couple of things robbie.

My contention was that the chiefs went from -2 to -3 in places. Phat was saying it was the other way early in the week. Youd imagine most of the money would come closer to the game, so if im right, and it did go out (chiefs handicap) close to the game then the Chiefs were the biggest liability for the bookies.

I wouldnt imagine trying to sway the tmo on 5050's wouldnt work unless they were all in on it. Which is a bit far fetched, but an interesting concept nonetheless. However, its a multibillion dollar industry, and Multi Billion dollar industries tend to work together through combined lobbying groups/central funding pools for common issues- Oil, Car manufacturers, tobacco, alcohol Property developers etc.

In general, the handicap before the game was -2 and -3 across the board, so in general, they were all the same.

And on betfair, with the small size of rugby markets on there, I doubt that bookies (mainstream bookies) use it. What you're seeing there is lads thinking its not a try so pushing the porice out in the hope of a quick buck.

I dont know what to think to be honest, i like to think im pretty objective, and I mostly remember TMO decisions gong the bookies' ways. Time will tell, and it will take a season worth of some sad git keeping a record to put it to bed once and for all

That would be an interesting study to do. You d have to be very objective though and determine which way the money was going pre ko.

To be honest i can't see any mainstream bookiie risking their licence on a piddling rugby match. They make too much money from offering 10/11 on even money shots to be bothered.

Juwwi

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

a couple of things robbie.

My contention was that the chiefs went from -2 to -3 in places. Phat was saying it was the other way early in the week. Youd imagine most of the money would come closer to the game, so if im right, and it did go out (chiefs handicap) close to the game then the Chiefs were the biggest liability for the bookies.

Hi sorry I did'nt realise that was earlier in the week that the line changed I did'nt read all earlier posts properly.
I agree most money would be in the lead up to the game and your right the -2 or -3 would of then been the worst result for the bookies.

I would still be very surprised tho if a TMO was getting a back hander.
A jockey,soccer ref,soccer linesman,rugby ref yea I would'nd be surprised.

The thing with the TMO is the video evidence repeats are there for everyone to see he could go games without there being a dodgy enough moment he can get away with.

Is there anywhere that they have to explain their desisions does anyone know that we could read.?

One things for sure pcworldisajoke I will be keeping a close eye on all decisions in the next while.:)
I also vow to not buy anything from pcworld ever again if your right on this.:D

PhatPiggins

TMO in the Saders game throwing a spanner in the theory pc! Two of the worst decisions i ve ever seen and the Saders backed off the map pre ko.

P_1

Judgement Day wrote: »

I reckon the Chiefs will beat Hurricanes as they will be smarting from last week's home defeat but I won't be touching it. My only bet (I think) will be on Crusaders -11 at Half Time @ 5/6 as they could ease off in the 2nd half and not make the -25 handicap - alternatively they could run riot but I'm not chancing it.

Looks like a good bet, as predicted the Force are staging a comeback of sorts, I'd say there will be about 20-24 points in this one come the end.

Judgement Day

What a game - two incredible TMO decisions and then Crusaders completely lost their shape after the halftime substitutions. It's like Dagg and Guildford in particular need the father figure of Captain Richie to keep them performing. Anyway I'm a happy man a win for the boys and win for me.

pcworldisajoke

PhatPiggins wrote: »

TMO in the Saders game throwing a spanner in the theory pc! Two of the worst decisions i ve ever seen and the Saders backed off the map pre ko.

quite bizarre alright, especially Daggs try. What was he smoking. Then what was Guildford smoking afterwards- he completely ruined that handicap in teh second half, he must have backed the plus cap!!!

Not having a good wkend, and neither are the lads on dropkickrugby. Two winners in their treble acca failed (chiefs and brumbies). Both crazy losses, but I was very confident on the reds/brumbies/chiefs acca myself.

Currently have a bet on stormers -18, reckon theyll jsut go out and play as theyve no pressure but to win.

The real question is whether the sharks will go for the kill today lads, because if they win with a bonus point, and if the bulls dont, they have a QF and if they win, a semi, both away in new zealand. Very dificult to call, and im thinking the 11-120 or 1-12 is the best bet by far. The minimum they HAVE to win by though, is 5, if they dont get a bonus point.

So essentially, the most sensible play by far for the Sharks, is to not score four tries if the opportunity presents itself. Strange, but the question is, will they do that. Because its a risk- if they let the cheetahs back to within 5 , they blow it. Its risky, and perhaps they might be best served jsut going for the bonus point to absolutely ensure qualification. The bulls dont have so much to worry about, as their points are better than the sharks. If the sharks got a bonus point, the bull only need a regular win to have reds in QF,a nd if they win, stormers in SA.

Very tricky , and it all rests on how we call what the sharks will do. Will they try to ust kick loads of penalties, or will they go fo the banker and play tot he best of their abilities.

Judgement Day

I should keep away from anymore betting while I'm ahead but in the Bulls vs Lions game - the Bulls to be leading by -8 points at HT @ 5/6 seems a given.

sock puppet

Deleted User wrote: »

It's not.

They set the line they believe is the right one. The liability doesnt affect it, unless the bookie believes that the market knows more than him and moves due to the pressure.

A balanced book is great, but the line is there to act as a Handicap of the game, not of the liability.

Oh right, makes sense.

pcworldisajoke wrote: »

that doesnt make alot of sense Sock puppet. The only way they make money then on that market is the draw. Seems a bit of waste of time for them if you're right. In fact, they may even lose if there's a few big bets on a handicap draw.

Most of the time the odds are 10/11.

Judgement Day

Judgement Day wrote: »

I should keep away from anymore betting while I'm ahead but in the Bulls vs Lions game - the Bulls to be leading by -8 points at HT @ 5/6 seems a given.

17-6 after 30 mins but ended up 20-20 at HT - still it was only Paddy's money I lost.

pcworldisajoke

Judgement Day wrote: »

17-6 after 30 mins but ended up 20-20 at HT - still it was only Paddy's money I lost.

really bizarre weekend. had a bit of luck on leeds -10 at 8/1 in the challenge cup to make weekend losses turn into a small profit.

Couldn't get over the Sharks and Bulls both going for bonus point tries when missing them meant they had an easier draw. Particularly the Bulls. You just can't win championships with coaches that can't come up with a decent gameplan to manage a better path to a final.

Judgement Day

Crusaders to win the competition 5/2. Michael Lynagh is backing them to go all the way but first they've got to get past the Bulls on Saturday. Fingers crossed.

CatFromHue

The Reds are -5 and the Crusaders are -10 for the playoff games on Saturday.

The Sharks did beat the Reds in SA in March 27-22 and in general their results against the SA sides they've played isn't great. They lost to the Stormers at home, Bulls in SA, Sharks in SA, beat the Lions at home, and didn't play the Cheetahs.

Also they finished up on less points than the Sharks and are only in the playoffs as they won more games than the Brumbies which put them top of the Oz conference! Plus the Sharks record is good against the Oz teams as they've beaten the Force at home, the Brumbies in Oz, the Reds at home, but lost to the Waratahs in Oz.

I think I'll be going for the Sharks at the +5 anyway.

Not sure about the Crusaders game as I think they'll win but not too keen on that handicap.

Judgement Day

I'll be going for Crusaders too but not the handicap as I think it could be tight. If you're a believer in the Bulls there's some serious betting such as the Bulls -8 @ 15/2. I'm almost tempted to have a disloyalty insurance bet with those odds. I can't see Crusader's big guns being taken off until the final hooter in this one and I hope last week's second half was a wake-up call. Roll on the weekend!

pcworldisajoke

small bets for me this week- very little making sense this weather. sticking a fiver on the 1-12 double, and doing the free bet 50/1 longshot tip on dropkickrugby.

broke after last week's illogical mess from the bulls/sharks/brumbies, and the injury time death by TMO for the chiefs

Judgement Day

I stayed away from the Bulls bet and ended up only a Euro down on the game - thank God for Dan Carter's wobbly drop goal.

CatFromHue

PP have their odds up for the weekend SFs. The Sharks are +5 which looks good to me. They've played twice all ready with the results being:

Stormers 15 Sharks 12 (March)
Sharks 25 Stormers 20 (May)

It's funny when you look back through the Stormers results, they really don't win by an awful lot!

The Crusaders are -4 but I don't know what'll happen in that game, I think it's too close to call.

sickpuppy

CatFromHue wrote: »

PP have their odds up for the weekend SFs. The Sharks are +5 which looks good to me. They've played twice all ready with the results being:

Stormers 15 Sharks 12 (March)
Sharks 25 Stormers 20 (May)

It's funny when you look back through the Stormers results, they really don't win by an awful lot!

The Crusaders are -4 but I don't know what'll happen in that game, I think it's too close to call.

No 8 for the stormers Vermeulen is out too.

PhatPiggins

CatFromHue wrote: »

PP have their odds up for the weekend SFs. The Sharks are +5 which looks good to me. They've played twice all ready with the results being:

Stormers 15 Sharks 12 (March)
Sharks 25 Stormers 20 (May)

It's funny when you look back through the Stormers results, they really don't win by an awful lot!

The Crusaders are -4 but I don't know what'll happen in that game, I think it's too close to call.

I think the sharks are the better team but i m concerned about all the air miles they've clocked up. To win this they'll have to start well before fatigue kicks in. I like them +3 10/11 with PP on the half time handicap.

CatFromHue

The Shark's last two regular season games were at home and they'd a bye week the first week back after the June Internationals. The only air miles they clocked up were for the Play Off against the Reds. Sizeable enough all the same, especially when the Stormers had a week off last week, but still only the two trips.

I also like that the Sharks are one of only a few (3 I think) to score three tries against the Stormers.

PhatPiggins

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I think the sharks are the better team but i m concerned about all the air miles they've clocked up. To win this they'll have to start well before fatigue kicks in. I like them +3 10/11 with PP on the half time handicap.

You're signing my song Ryan:

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3551_7932453,00.html

pcworldisajoke

workin hard yesterday evening so I could have morning off to watch the rugby, and boy was I happy. Followed the lads on dropkickrugby again (been on a losing streak because of it, but I was inches away a few times so stuck with em), and cleaned up his morning on the handicap, 1-12, and a double of the 1-12 going onto the stormers tomorrow. Evens after the last few month now, was in fairly big agreement with the thoughts last night and lumped on

Judgement Day

Three bets today in the Chiefs vs Crusaders game: Chiefs more than 9.5 in 1st half (17); Crusaders more than 11.5 (needed Dan Carter to slot conversion of Crotty's try - he didn't) and Luke Romano to score a try (subbed after 15 mins!)

Down for the second weekend in a row but not by too much and still Stormers vs Sharks tomorrow.

pcworldisajoke

Judgement Day wrote: »

Three bets today in the Chiefs vs Crusaders game: Chiefs more than 9.5 in 1st half (17); Crusaders more than 11.5 (needed Dan Carter to slot conversion of Crotty's try - he didn't) and Luke Romano to score a try (subbed after 15 mins!)

Down for the second weekend in a row but not by too much and still Stormers vs Sharks tomorrow.

Romano was tipped to have a big game, but he was clattered early on- id wouldnt be surprised if he had a broken rib- savage hit he got

duckysauce

PhatPiggins wrote: »

You're signing my song Ryan:

http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3551_7932453,00.html

looks good with 5 to go in first half 13-3 sharks

duckysauce

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I think the sharks are the better team but i m concerned about all the air miles they've clocked up. To win this they'll have to start well before fatigue kicks in. I like them +3 10/11 with PP on the half time handicap.

good call

PhatPiggins

duckysauce wrote: »

PhatPiggins wrote: »

I think the sharks are the better team but i m concerned about all the air miles they've clocked up. To win this they'll have to start well before fatigue kicks in. I like them +3 10/11 with PP on the half time handicap.

good call

I think the whole forum was on the Sharks in one shape or another. Prices for next weekend will be interesting.

CatFromHue

The Sharks are now at +7 which I think looks good especially as all the pressure is on the Chiefs at the moment but the Sharks do look stronger up front.

In the two games they've played recently against the Crusaders their set piece was:
Scrums on own feed 13 won 4 lost
Lineouts on own throw 12 won 12 lost

They've also played the Highlanders and the Hurricanes recently but neither of these teams would have a great pack. Well not of the standard of the Crusadrers or the Sharks.

In the Sharks games against the Stormers and the Reds their stats are
Scrums on own feed 13 won 0 lost
Lineouts on own throw 21 won 3 lost

pcworldisajoke

have to disagree catfromhue. The Stormers and Reds were muck v the sharks, and while i know the Sharks played well, the Chiefs will be a diffent ball game entirely. Been on a bit of a rollercoaster following the lads on dropkickrugby, but as i said last week I was up nicely after following them for the first semi, and have again followed the advice and lumped on the Chiefs -4 early in the week. Also taken small bits of the chiefs on the handicaps all the way up to -25 at 10/1