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Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

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    #1052
    MungBean
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭MungBean


    PhatPiggins wrote: »
    Its nothing to do with winning or losing. It depends on why you choose to post on a betting forum. I post because I like to share and get info on bets. In order for that to be of any use I need to trust what I read and be trusted myself.In order to get that a poster/me needs to post a bet before the event, preferably with reasoning and if they feel the need post a follow up it won/ it lost post afterwards great.

    Aftertiming for me is a no no because if I don't read about a bet prior to a win I just think 'public penis wagging lets see he aftertimes a loser'.

    It was me that pulled JD Xmonths ago and in fairnness to him he was genuine in his response and always posts a screen shot when he aftertimes :pac:

    Except its not a betting forum its a rugby forum, I'm sure we'd all love sure things every week but thats not what this thread is about its about discussion of gambling in relation to rugby.

    Discussing my winnings is no different than discussing my losses yet people only get affected by others winnings. JD posting a screenshot doesnt matter to the fact its after timing which is what you have the issue with. He's merely discussing his rugby winnings/losses in the rugby gambling thread. Same as me. Now you may take it as boasting or public penis wagging or whatever but you can take a lot of things that way. I initially apologised to you (if I have the discussion right) for after timing then witnessed you back out of the statement you made about it.

    Since then I've seen it countless times by countless people and its never spoken of. So I appreciate that it may piss people off, may look like me wagging my penis about but taking issue with that really is playing the man and not the ball so to speak. In theory I'm probably wrong to after time because it doesnt sit well with a few regular posters but in practice its those who get affected who are in the wrong, by back seat modding and making it personal.

    I didnt mean it to be anything other than general chit chat to say I had a good weekend.


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    #1053
    Juwwi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    I'd also like to agree on after timing being a total no no its stupid no one wants to read
    posts clogging up a thread about someones win when they did'nt post it prior to the event.

    What Im surprised at is mungbean arguing his point back that aftertiming should be allowed when everyone else is agreeing it should'nt when he isnt even a regular on this thread.


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    #1054
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I don't really think it should be banned - though doing it consistently is kind of bad form. I have no major issue with it though I think the general idea of the thread is to point out bets beforehand.


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    #1055
    MungBean
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭MungBean


    robbie1977 wrote: »
    I'd also like to agree on after timing being a total no no its stupid no one wants to read
    posts clogging up a thread about someones win when they did'nt post it prior to the event.

    What Im surprised at is mungbean arguing his point back that aftertiming should be allowed when everyone else is agreeing it should'nt when he isnt even a regular on this thread.

    Regulars dont make the rules of the forum I'm afraid. And regardless if I'm not a regular then you wouldnt be either so your only managing to silence your own opinion on that one if you think post count makes an opinion more valid.

    I dont have to argue anything I know for a fact after timing isnt a breach of the charter. Back seat modding and personalisation are. So I'm not the one in the wrong here. If people think its a problem which it cant be if this is the second time its been discussed in about a year then they should report the posts, take it up with the moderators. I'm not saying it should or shouldnt be allowed by the way I'm just saying its a regular occurrence and what I said was nothing out of the ordinary.


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    #1056
    PhatPiggins
    Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    MungBean wrote: »
    Except its not a betting forum its a rugby forum, I'm sure we'd all love sure things every week but thats not what this thread is about its about discussion of gambling in relation to rugby.

    Discussing my winnings is no different than discussing my losses yet people only get affected by others winnings. JD posting a screenshot doesnt matter to the fact its after timing which is what you have the issue with. He's merely discussing his rugby winnings/losses in the rugby gambling thread. Same as me. Now you may take it as boasting or public penis wagging or whatever but you can take a lot of things that way. I initially apologised to you (if I have the discussion right) for after timing then witnessed you back out of the statement you made about it.

    Since then I've seen it countless times by countless people and its never spoken of. So I appreciate that it may piss people off, may look like me wagging my penis about but taking issue with that really is playing the man and not the ball so to speak. In theory I'm probably wrong to after time because it doesnt sit well with a few regular posters but in practice its those who get affected who are in the wrong, by back seat modding and making it personal.

    I didnt mean it to be anything other than general chit chat to say I had a good weekend.

    Its a betting thread though. I actually don't care what you do because as you say its not that serious a thread but if people actually want to get something from it then you need to be able to trust the poster and the only way to do that is if they have some sort of record.

    For what its worth I've never pulled you on this before and my comments are aimed at the forum in general and not just you.


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    #1057
    MungBean
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭MungBean


    PhatPiggins wrote: »
    Its a betting thread though. I actually don't care what you do because as you say its not that serious a thread but if people actually want to get something from it then you need to be able to trust the poster and the only way to do that is if they have some sort of record.

    For what its worth I've never pulled you on this before and my comments are aimed at the forum in general and not just you.

    And I was discussing my bets I placed on rugby matches.

    Its up to the individual if they want a reputation as someone who knows what their talking about though. Same as other threads, people like reading what certain people have to say and ignore the stuff they consider pointless but you cant censor people to suit the wants of a few individuals. Seems a lot of people seen my post as pointless yet here we are discussing it at length.

    I'd love to read a match thread and have every single post be logical and rational and give me something but it aint gonna happen. Like I said its a rugby thread in the rugby forum, it doesnt make sense to me to treat it as anything else.

    Not trying to be smart here but perhaps a thread about rugby betting in the betting forum might better suit people who are very serious about their betting.


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    #1058
    PhatPiggins
    Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    No you're right its much better to have a pointless rambling thread where people post whatever they want.

    I think you'll find its actually you who are in the minority who think aftertiming is ok


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    #1059
    RuggieBear
    Registered Users Posts: 17,958 ✭✭✭✭RuggieBear


    there is no rule against aftertiming but it is certainly against the spirit of how this thread has evolved and is contributed to.

    As i understand it aftertiming is usually frowned upon in betting discussions as people can be very irritated by "know-it-all" smug winners

    IMO repeatedly aftertiming would be poor form and potentially would fall foul of the "don't be a dick" part of the charter.


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    #1060
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Personally I've no problem with someone aftertiming if they have beforetimed (if that makes sense).


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    #1061
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Personally I've no problem with someone aftertiming if they have beforetimed (if that makes sense).

    It's only "after timing" if there is no pre-event-post. Otherwise it's simply digesting your results.


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    #1062
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Deleted User wrote: »
    It's only "after timing" if there is no pre-event-post. Otherwise it's simply digesting your results.

    Yeah that's what I meant.


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    #1063
    MungBean
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭MungBean


    PhatPiggins wrote: »
    No you're right its much better to have a pointless rambling thread where people post whatever they want.

    I think you'll find its actually you who are in the minority who think aftertiming is ok

    There is no pointless rambling thread, this thread was grand until people made a mountain out of a molehill of one post which in itself wasnt anything out of the ordinary. And I never said you were in the minority of anything only that posts are not censored to suit other posters.

    As RuggieBear said there is no rule against after timing. Unless its repeated to the point of being a dick. I dont see anyone doing it to that extent so there is no real problem here. The thread is fine, this scene was unwarranted, lets all untwist our knickers.


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    #1064
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Deleted User wrote: »
    The current liability of a bookmaker to a result does not affect their prices except in extreme cases.

    Bookmakers set the line at the "correct" price. Totes / totalisiers / Pari mutuel bets are those that are set by the liability to an event.

    If you think Clermont will be massive favourites for the final then surely you can find a way of creating a quasi-arbitrage opportunity with the prices as they currently lie


    Yes. I expect the winner of the Clermont/Leinster to go as short as 1/4.


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    #1065
    PhatPiggins
    Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    RuggieBear wrote: »
    there is no rule against aftertiming but it is certainly against the spirit of how this thread has evolved and is contributed to.

    As i understand it aftertiming is usually frowned upon in betting discussions as people can be very irritated by "know-it-all" smug winners

    IMO repeatedly aftertiming would be poor form and potentially would fall foul of the "don't be a dick" part of the charter.

    What would it take for it to become a rule? Public poll?

    There's no way of enforcing a 'repeatedly aftertiming' is frowned apon theme. There's plenty of forums for pointless rambling. Would it be too much to ask that just one of the threads in the rugby forum has a set structure and set of rules?


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    #1066
    PhatPiggins
    Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    liammur wrote: »
    Yes. I expect the winner of the Clermont/Leinster to go as short as 1/4.

    Clermont didn't exactly cover themselves in glory in the group stages against Ulster (could/should have lost both games). I'd agree with you regarding Leinsters price but I'd price a Clermont/Ulster final at 4/6 - 6/4 personally. The bean counters and their stats based odds compiling would probably disagree ;)


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    #1067
    MungBean
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭MungBean


    PhatPiggins wrote: »
    What would it take for it to become a rule? Public poll?

    There's no way of enforcing a 'repeatedly aftertiming' is frowned apon theme. There's plenty of forums for pointless rambling. Would it be too much to ask that just one of the treads in the rugby forum has a set structure and set of rules?

    Its a non issue though isnt it ? There is no repeated aftertiming here. And I'll say it again without being smart about it, sorry if you take it the wrong way but there is an entire forum dedicated to gambling where you can post with the rules you want already in place. Changing the rules for a non issue here for the sake of one thread rather than have the thread in the appropriate forum makes absolutely no sense.


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    #1068
    CatFromHue
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,143 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatFromHue


    Paddy Power have put up their odds for the Semi

    Ulster -7
    Clermont / Leinster (Scr)


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    #1069
    PhatPiggins
    Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    CatFromHue wrote: »
    Paddy Power have put up their odds for the Semi

    Ulster -7
    Clermont / Leinster (Scr)

    Considering the beatings Ulster have been handing out to Edinburgh the last 2 years thats a very decent price to me. Ulster have been travelling well in the ML and HC this season and Edinburgh while great at home have been very patchy at times on the road.


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    #1070
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    PhatPiggins wrote: »
    Clermont didn't exactly cover themselves in glory in the group stages against Ulster (could/should have lost both games). I'd agree with you regarding Leinsters price but I'd price a Clermont/Ulster final at 4/6 - 6/4 personally. The bean counters and their stats based odds compiling would probably disagree ;)


    If clermont were playing ulster in the final and they were priced at 4/6, i'd put a nice few K on them.


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    #1071
    Juwwi
    Registered Users Posts: 4,244 ✭✭✭Juwwi


    Boyles and Stan James have Ulster at -5 10/11 against Edinburgh.

    I can see that the handicap getting bigger.

    -5 is a good bet imo I cant imagine too many Scotish fans will travel over
    it could end up my like a home game to Ulster.


    Also Leinster at 10/11 with PP could look good odds come the start.


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    #1072
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    robbie1977 wrote: »
    Boyles and Stan James have Ulster at -5 10/11 against Edinburgh.

    I can see that the handicap getting bigger.

    -5 is a good bet imo I cant imagine too many Scotish fans will travel over
    it could end up my like a home game to Ulster.


    Also Leinster at 10/11 with PP could look good odds come the start.

    They are changing a little bit. Clermont were -1. I'll be putting a nice 4 figure sum on Clermont.


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    #1073
    Judgement Day
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,549 ✭✭✭✭Judgement Day


    liammur wrote: »
    They are changing a little bit. Clermont were -1. I'll be putting a nice 4 figure sum on Clermont.

    Be sure to post a screen shot won't you. :rolleyes:


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    #1074
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Judgement Day wrote: »
    Be sure to post a screen shot won't you. :rolleyes:

    A screen shot ? I go to the bookies and put a few hundred on over a few days. Do you want a screen shot of my dockets too ? :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:


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    #1075
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Deleted User wrote: »
    fascinating dynamic imo.

    Basically they have priced the "Home Effect" absolutely massively into Clermont's odds.

    Leinster are priced to be near certain winners if they win the semi, yet Clermont are priced as far closer if they get through to the final.

    Its correct imo, but it still looks ridiculous!

    You see it's levelling out now as I had predicted.

    Clermont are now 10/11 as are Leinster for the semi.

    Leinster are 11/8 for the H Cup
    Clermont are 6/4.


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    #1076
    Judgement Day
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,549 ✭✭✭✭Judgement Day


    Go on then. :D


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    #1077
    thomond2006
    Registered Users Posts: 45,433 ✭✭✭✭thomond2006


    Can't believe Ulster -7 is the spread, surely Ulster -13/14 would be more realistic.


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    #1078
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    thomond2006 wrote: »
    Can't believe Ulster -7 is the spread, surely Ulster -13/14 would be more realistic.

    You can Ulster @ -5. Are they that good ? I can see Edinburgh spring a surprise.


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    #1079
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Judgement Day wrote: »
    Go on then. :D

    And when I do you'll pretend you didn't see it.

    Goodbye.


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    #1080
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Latest odds for the semis: Boylesports

    Ulster -5
    Clermont +2


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    #1081
    totallegend
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,234 ✭✭✭totallegend


    liammur wrote: »
    Latest odds for the semis: Boylesports

    Ulster -5
    Clermont +2

    Sorry, Clermont plus two? In France, with 20,000 fans shaking the stadium to its foundations? I'd get on that if I wasn't a Leinster fan.


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