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Official Free Money Betting Superthread 2011/12

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    #1022
    antogz1979
    Registered Users Posts: 204 ✭✭antogz1979


    liammur wrote: »
    They don't travel. There's no doubt they are the better team, but like toulouse, will they turn up?

    That's a bit harsh for this year anyway. They should have beaten Ulster in Ravenhill, only for one bad defensive error. They were ahead for most of the match and were the better team. They got a losing bonus point in Leicester which is no mean achievment. They were ahead for a lot of that match as well. Flood got 2 penalties near the end to win it as far as I can remember.


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    #1023
    wp_rathead
    Registered Users Posts: 10,067 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    Clermont Away in Europe:

    Sun 18/10/09 ERC Ospreys 25 - 24 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    at 19/12/09 ERC Leicester Tigers 20 - 15 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Sat 23/01/10 ERC Viadana 20 - 59 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Fri 09/04/10 ERC Leinster 29 - 28 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Sat 16/10/10 ERC Racing Métro 92 16 - 9 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Sat 18/12/10 ERC Leinster 24 - 8 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Fri 21/01/11 ERC Saracens 14 - 24 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Sat 12/11/11 ERC Ulster 16 - 11 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Sat 17/12/11 ERC Leicester Tigers 23 - 19 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Sat 14/01/12 ERC Aironi 0 - 82 ASM Clermont Auvergne

    Saracens at Home:
    at 16/10/10 ERC Saracens 23 - 25 Leinster
    Sat 11/12/10 ERC Saracens 21 - 24 Racing Métro 92o
    Fri 21/01/11 ERC Saracens 14 - 24 ASM Clermont Auvergne
    Sun 13/11/11 ERC Saracens 42 - 17 Benetton Treviso
    Sat 10/12/11 ERC Saracens 31 - 26 Ospreys
    Sun 15/01/12 ERC Saracens 20 - 16 Biarritz

    Last season Clermont managed a rare away victory in Saracens-their only other wins coming in Italy. +3 is about right- but I went for alternative handicap at +5
    hoping Saracens win for Leinsters sake though (and ultimatly for Connachts sake:cool:)


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    #1024
    GerM
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,592 ✭✭✭GerM


    Sarries were out of the tournament at that point, not even able to claim an Amlin Cup spot. They went through the motions in an empty stadium and Clermont, who had an outside chance of topping the group still, gave it a good go. Think Clermont are going to lose this by about 7.


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    #1025
    antogz1979
    Registered Users Posts: 204 ✭✭antogz1979


    I know the statistics still wouldn't put me off backing Clermont. They have been very good away from home this year, which matters most.


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    #1026
    Blut2
    Registered Users Posts: 2,928 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Had a 5euro "think good thoughts" accumulator on Edinburgh, Leinster, Ulster and Saracens. Gutted by the last game :(


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    #1027
    MungBean
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭MungBean


    Threw a "shur fcuk it ya never know" 20 quid on an Ulster win last night @ 5/2. Also had tenner on Leinster -13 Ulster +8 double.

    Scattered a few euro on Toulouse, Leinster, Ulster and Clermont HC on doubles, triples and accum. Pity about Toulouse but made a few quid all same.

    Good times.


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    #1028
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I picked the lotto numbers from last Thursday.


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    #1029
    MungBean
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭MungBean


    Deleted User wrote: »
    I picked the lotto numbers from last Thursday.

    Sore emmet ? :D


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    #1030
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    After timing is a no no


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    #1031
    MungBean
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭MungBean


    Deleted User wrote: »
    After timing is a no no

    Not from what I have seen in this thread for the length I've been on the forum. Its a regular feature so please dont wag your finger at me for doing it.

    Edit: The fact that JD thanked that post astounds me considering the regular update screenshot of "What JD won today". Unless the whole thing is a joke......is it ?


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    #1032
    duckysauce
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,930 ✭✭✭duckysauce


    Deleted User wrote: »
    After timing is a no no

    after timing is cool as long as you lose :D

    i had the scots , leinster, munster , clermont .


    aggghhhh


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    #1033
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    MungBean wrote: »
    Threw a "shur fcuk it ya never know" 20 quid on an Ulster win last night @ 5/2. Also had tenner on Leinster -13 Ulster +8 double.

    Scattered a few euro on Toulouse, Leinster, Ulster and Clermont HC on doubles, triples and accum. Pity about Toulouse but made a few quid all same.

    Good times.

    I put €500 on Ulster +6. Shouldn't have bothered with handicap.


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    #1034
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    antogz1979 wrote: »
    Clermont +3 with StanJames looks the bet today.
    I was looking at their team and they have class all over the field. I was comparing the 2 teams on paper and they are nearly better in every position. Clermont have only lost 1 of their last 13 matches and that was against Biarritz last week, where they rested players. They are all out for the Heineken cup this year as it is their centenary year.
    I watched Saracens last week against Quins and they were terrible. They rely too heavily on Farrell with penalties and their backs can be very lathergic at times. Saracens show the premiership of what it is a competition of very mediocre teams. They are an honest bunch of players, but are not in the same league as teams like Leicester or Wasps in years gone by. With Hodgson and Wigglesworth at halfbacks, they are going nowhere.
    I think Clermont will win this with a bit to spare, maybe 5 points.

    Well called, although they won it at a canter.


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    #1035
    Judgement Day
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,549 ✭✭✭✭Judgement Day


    MungBean wrote: »
    Not from what I have seen in this thread for the length I've been on the forum. Its a regular feature so please dont wag your finger at me for doing it.

    Edit: The fact that JD thanked that post astounds me considering the regular update screenshot of "What JD won today". Unless the whole thing is a joke......is it ?

    I was hauled up yonks ago for 'after timing' which I understood to mean statements regarding winnings without proof - that's why I put up screen shots and nobody has pulled me up since. Incidentally, you will notice that there haven't been any screen shots from me recently - the cupboard is bare after a woeful spell. Infuriating for me as I would have taken Edinburgh, Ulster and Leinster (try scorers) and been quids in. Still, it's nice to think that PP got a good kicking yesterday when BOD's try caused the refund of all losing try scoring bets in that game. :D


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    #1036
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I was under the impression after timing meant commenting on bets you won without mentioning them before the game.

    i.e. gloating!


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    #1037
    Judgement Day
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,549 ✭✭✭✭Judgement Day


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    I was under the impression after timing meant commenting on bets you won without mentioning them before the game.

    i.e. gloating!

    I googled it without success but you may well be right. That said, I think it's acceptable enough to say that you have won after a game provided you back it up. What I don't like is people claiming that they won large amounts and not backing it up. Anyway, it matters little. :)


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    #1038
    Fishooks12
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,318 ✭✭✭Fishooks12


    Nearly ashamed to say that I had an Edinburgh Ulster double at the weekend

    worked out at 12/1

    Never backing against Munster again though!


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    #1039
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    I'm going for a Clermont/Edinburgh final.


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    #1040
    MungBean
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,915 ✭✭✭MungBean


    Judgement Day wrote: »
    I was hauled up yonks ago for 'after timing' which I understood to mean statements regarding winnings without proof - that's why I put up screen shots and nobody has pulled me up since. Incidentally, you will notice that there haven't been any screen shots from me recently - the cupboard is bare after a woeful spell. Infuriating for me as I would have taken Edinburgh, Ulster and Leinster (try scorers) and been quids in. Still, it's nice to think that PP got a good kicking yesterday when BOD's try caused the refund of all losing try scoring bets in that game. :D

    I think I was scolded at that time, was my first post in this thread and I apologised at the time thinking I'd crossed some sacred line. I do recall someone (could have been you) backing their post up up with a screenshot but the point was nullified by someone else who rounded on whoever complained who then backed down and said they were just sore after losing or having a laugh something. Since then I've seen it plenty in here with proof and without, its a rugby gambling discussion after all and its all discussion.

    I understand it may grate with some who havent done particularly well and may seem like gloating but this is just another rugby discussion thread. "I won money today" is no different than saying "I knew Ulster would win!" in the match thread. May piss off somebody but what can ya do ? Someones always gonna be pissed off when theres winning and losing involved.


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    #1041
    wp_rathead
    Registered Users Posts: 10,067 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    To quote JP- we all need to "Chillax"


    it's the bookies we wanna beat


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    #1042
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    MungBean wrote: »
    I think I was scolded at that time, was my first post in this thread and I apologised at the time thinking I'd crossed some sacred line. I do recall someone (could have been you) backing their post up up with a screenshot but the point was nullified by someone else who rounded on whoever complained who then backed down and said they were just sore after losing or having a laugh something. Since then I've seen it plenty in here with proof and without, its a rugby gambling discussion after all and its all discussion.

    I understand it may grate with some who havent done particularly well and may seem like gloating but this is just another rugby discussion thread. "I won money today" is no different than saying "I knew Ulster would win!" in the match thread. May piss off somebody but what can ya do ? Someones always gonna be pissed off when theres winning and losing involved.

    Very true. I said on Munster thread I'm going for a Clermont/Edinburgh final and some muppet had a rant at me for not wanting an Irish team to win it.


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    #1043
    wp_rathead
    Registered Users Posts: 10,067 ✭✭✭✭wp_rathead


    wprathead wrote: »
    Brive is +7 at home to Scarlets in Amlin? Could someone explain this please? Surely its not just based on Wales's Grand Slam?:confused:

    grr, why didn't I do with my gut and bet on this. Brive 15 Scarlets 11


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    #1044
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Latest odds for the semi:

    Ulster -7
    Clermont -1


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    #1045
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Interesting that Clermont are slight favourites for the semi yet Leinster are shorter odds for the HEC.


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    #1046
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    Interesting that Clermont are slight favourites for the semi yet Leinster are shorter odds for the HEC.

    fascinating dynamic imo.

    Basically they have priced the "Home Effect" absolutely massively into Clermont's odds.

    Leinster are priced to be near certain winners if they win the semi, yet Clermont are priced as far closer if they get through to the final.

    Its correct imo, but it still looks ridiculous!


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    #1047
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Deleted User wrote: »
    fascinating dynamic imo.

    Basically they have priced the "Home Effect" absolutely massively into Clermont's odds.

    Leinster are priced to be near certain winners if they win the semi, yet Clermont are priced as far closer if they get through to the final.

    Its correct imo, but it still looks ridiculous!


    I disagree, if Clermont win the semi, they will be massive favs for the final.


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    #1048
    liammur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,461 ✭✭✭liammur


    Podge_irl wrote: »
    Interesting that Clermont are slight favourites for the semi yet Leinster are shorter odds for the HEC.

    Clermont's odds will shorten.
    There is a lot of money on Leinster already, hence the difference in price. The bookies do not want to take more money on Leinster.


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    #1049
    Podge_irl
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 25,383 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    liammur wrote: »
    I disagree, if Clermont win the semi, they will be massive favs for the final.

    Though perhaps not quite as massive favourites as Leinster.


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    #1050
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    liammur wrote: »
    Clermont's odds will shorten.
    There is a lot of money on Leinster already, hence the difference in price. The bookies do not want to take more money on Leinster.

    The current liability of a bookmaker to a result does not affect their prices except in extreme cases.

    Bookmakers set the line at the "correct" price. Totes / totalisiers / Pari mutuel bets are those that are set by the liability to an event.

    If you think Clermont will be massive favourites for the final then surely you can find a way of creating a quasi-arbitrage opportunity with the prices as they currently lie


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    #1051
    PhatPiggins
    Registered Users Posts: 4,881 ✭✭✭PhatPiggins


    MungBean wrote: »
    I think I was scolded at that time, was my first post in this thread and I apologised at the time thinking I'd crossed some sacred line. I do recall someone (could have been you) backing their post up up with a screenshot but the point was nullified by someone else who rounded on whoever complained who then backed down and said they were just sore after losing or having a laugh something. Since then I've seen it plenty in here with proof and without, its a rugby gambling discussion after all and its all discussion.

    I understand it may grate with some who havent done particularly well and may seem like gloating but this is just another rugby discussion thread. "I won money today" is no different than saying "I knew Ulster would win!" in the match thread. May piss off somebody but what can ya do ? Someones always gonna be pissed off when theres winning and losing involved.

    Its nothing to do with winning or losing. It depends on why you choose to post on a betting forum. I post because I like to share and get info on bets. In order for that to be of any use I need to trust what I read and be trusted myself.In order to get that a poster/me needs to post a bet before the event, preferably with reasoning and if they feel the need post a follow up it won/ it lost post afterwards great.

    Aftertiming for me is a no no because if I don't read about a bet prior to a win I just think 'public penis wagging lets see he aftertimes a loser'.

    It was me that pulled JD Xmonths ago and in fairnness to him he was genuine in his response and always posts a screen shot when he aftertimes :pac:


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