*Everything HPAT and Medicine 2012*

drbtrenier

A bit of a random post here, but does anyone else think that the fact that the HPAT results came out early this year will have an effect on the results, ie. push the points up?

My logic behind this is that the people on 180-ish will see that they need to work really really hard to stand a chance of getting a place this year, so that's what they'll do for this month coming up to the leaving cert. Thus, people wanting med will have even higher LC points than usual, making it even harder to get in.

Is this just me being paranoid or is it an actual possibility?

hollingr

I think far more people will be deflated and loose motivation than gain it..

Of 3000~ test takers, about 30% of those have good enough results to even consider the possibility of getting a place. That leaves 2100~ very unhappy people who know they can't get in.

NoHarm1994

I wonder if there are many people who sat the HPAT (and did well 80th percentile+) who don't have it down first? Also I WONDER how many people will get complacent and bottle the LC?

It is these little things that are driving me on :P haha
Me and my wondering mind

browniess

can't concentrate on my college exams because I'm constantly wondering how much the points are going to go up... have to stop!

I'm so very on the borderline with 736-- i can see myself missing out again by a few points. I actually started looking up the GAMSAT today (even though there's prob a good 2-3 yrs before i can sit it!) i'm convinced there's no way i'm getting in with my rotten luck.

I'll be as eager to see the LC results stats on rte as those who are actually getting their results this year!

NoHarm1994

browniess wrote: »

can't concentrate on my college exams because I'm constantly wondering how much the points are going to go up... have to stop!

I'm so very on the borderline with 736-- i can see myself missing out again by a few points. I actually started looking up the GAMSAT today (even though there's prob a good 2-3 yrs before i can sit it!) i'm convinced there's no way i'm getting in with my rotten luck.

I'll be as eager to see the LC results stats on rte as those who are actually getting their results this year!

I need 615 in the LC this year to get what you have. Don't sweat it I reckon that should just be enough to get into Galway

tweetybird4848

browniess wrote: »

can't concentrate on my college exams because I'm constantly wondering how much the points are going to go up... have to stop!

I'm so very on the borderline with 736-- i can see myself missing out again by a few points. I actually started looking up the GAMSAT today (even though there's prob a good 2-3 yrs before i can sit it!) i'm convinced there's no way i'm getting in with my rotten luck.

I'll be as eager to see the LC results stats on rte as those who are actually getting their results this year!

I'm the exact same!! Its driving me mad! I have worked out just about every statistic and go between thinking I'll get in and then thinking I'll definately not get in! I just can't get them out of my head!! I hope your study for college is more productive then mine!

browniess

NoHarm1994 wrote: »

I need 615 in the LC this year to get what you have. Don't sweat it I reckon that should just be enough to get into Galway

Well i'd like to hope so. but i'm desperately trying not to get my hopes up.
I'll be disappointed if i don't get in, but i'm quite happy to do GEM at this stage. 615, eh? fingers crossed for u, that'll be a huge achievement if u get 615. I certainly would be disgruntled if I got 600+ points and still didn't get in.

it's ridiculous how inflated the points are for med every year. It's already pushing past the ceiling- it has to plateau at some point!

NoHarm1994

browniess wrote: »

Well i'd like to hope so. but i'm desperately trying not to get my hopes up.
I'll be disappointed if i don't get in, but i'm quite happy to do GEM at this stage. 615, eh? fingers crossed for u, that'll be a huge achievement if u get 615. I certainly would be disgruntled if I got 600+ points and still didn't get in.

it's ridiculous how inflated the points are for med every year. It's already pushing past the ceiling- it has to plateau at some point!

Cheers It is getting pretty swotty now :P

Hopefully it will hit the roof this year and then next year if we can battle the HPAT again and you never know we might be in a better position

browniess

tweetybird4848 wrote: »

I'm the exact same!! Its driving me mad! I have worked out just about every statistic and go between thinking I'll get in and then thinking I'll definately not get in! I just can't get them out of my head!! I hope your study for college is more productive then mine!

hey! that's exactly what i've been doing for the last week or so-- i've certainly put my maths skills to the test and done some ridiculous calculations (all probability-based and of no use other than self-torture).

I convince myself that the points can't go up by more than 7 again this year, and then I tell myself, "no you're deluded- of course they will".
absolute brink of madness!:) not productive at all unfortunately, but hoping i'll pass all my subjects! good luck to you twin

tweetybird4848

browniess wrote: »

tweetybird4848 wrote: »

I'm the exact same!! Its driving me mad! I have worked out just about every statistic and go between thinking I'll get in and then thinking I'll definately not get in! I just can't get them out of my head!! I hope your study for college is more productive then mine!

hey! that's exactly what i've been doing for the last week or so-- i've certainly put my maths skills to the test and done some ridiculous calculations (all probability-based and of no use other than self-torture).

I convince myself that the points can't go up by more than 7 again this year, and then I tell myself, "no you're deluded- of course they will".
absolute brink of madness!:) not productive at all unfortunately, but hoping i'll pass all my subjects! good luck to you twin

That is literally the same as me! Its pure torture! What course are you doing in college! I'm praying I pass all my exams! I hope you get med too !!

pinkballetdance

Saracarroll wrote: »

Well considering 6% of 3000 is 180 and there is only 123 places in trinity it was a fair enough question

You've to remember theres plenty of people who don't have trinity first on their CAO and get in the top percentiles.

JackMyBoy

With the huge number of posts here in the past week, I simply haven't the time to go through it all.

Could someone give me advice on this please? I'm one of many in this position.

Provided I get 550 points in the LC this year, what would be the best option for me next year, taking into account fees for switching courses, wasting a year, etc. I didn't get enough points in the HPAT, so repeating that next year is a given.

But... I'd rather not start a course in September, and transfer over to Medicine in 2013, as I believe that's frowned upon. Also, I'd hate to spend 4 years doing a course I don't really want to do, only to have to have my dreams dashed by the extremely competitive Grad Entry Medicine applicants.

I'm willing to go to the US and Britain to do Medicine, by the way, if needs be. So, what would be best for me next year, taking all of this into account? I really want to do Medicine!

Derick990

It's not as if there wasn't enough conjecture about points as it is but I thought I'd throw in my two cents.

UCD(90) +TCD(123) +NUIG(120) + RCSI(39) + UCC(90-estimate)=462-15% for mature, HEAR and DARE= 400ish

Last year results 6.2% percent got 525+, assume that 6.2 will get 550+ this year due to HL maths.
190=90%
P(550+ and 90%+)= .062 x .1 = .0062.
Last year 55000 lc'ers x.0062= 341
400-341=59-(the amount of people of each successive score below 190 ie 189,188...)
You can go as far as 187
so my estimate of the points this year for NUIG will be 550 + 187=737

I'm obviously neurotic and I'm sure the math's not exactly perfect but I think that's a good estimate.

I could have been studying...

kevhall9

Did anyone use the bell curve to calculate the amount of people who did it? Or is that info known?

kevhall9

~ 3,000 apparently?

skinny malinky

Derick990 wrote: »

It's not as if there wasn't enough conjecture about points as it is but I thought I'd throw in my two cents.

UCD(90) +TCD(123) +NUIG(120) + RCSI(39) + UCC(90-estimate)=462-15% for mature, HEAR and DARE= 400ish

Last year results 6.2% percent got 525+, assume that 6.2 will get 550+ this year due to HL maths.
190=90%
P(550+ and 90%+)= .062 x .1 = .0062.
Last year 55000 lc'ers x.0062= 341
400-341=59-(the amount of people of each successive score below 190 ie 189,188...)
You can go as far as 187
so my estimate of the points this year for NUIG will be 550 + 187=737

I'm obviously neurotic and I'm sure the math's not exactly perfect but I think that's a good estimate.

I could have been studying...

I know you're just having a bit of fun but isn't a major flaw of this the fact that there's a correlation between getting 550+ points and hoping for medicine?
In other words, only 6.2% of all students get 550+, but the percentage of students who sat the hpat and end up getting 550+ could be (for example) 40%...
So in that case, you'd have to multiply .1 by (total speculation here) .4 by 3000 (the number of hpat applicants, roughly) = 120. Which is obviously even better than what you suggested.

*Before people go and get excited, I've just guessed that 40% figure so take all of the above with a pinch of salt.

skinny malinky

kevhall9 wrote: »

Did anyone use the bell curve to calculate the amount of people who did it? Or is that info known?

I think a few pages back hollingr said it was roughly 3000 but I don't know if he was guessing or not.

hollingr

Derick990 wrote: »

UCD(90) +TCD(123) +NUIG(120) + RCSI(39) + UCC(90-estimate)=462-15% for mature, HEAR and DARE= 400ish

so my estimate of the points this year for NUIG will be 550 + 187=737

A 9 point jump! :eek: I think that's a bit hefty, considering the hpat results have stagnated this year, or even gone down slightly. Every other year there has been an increase in the hpat results, especially last year. Also, you are assuming every single person with 90th percentile or better has a 550+ leaving cert, which certainly isn't the case. The fact that people have been getting in pretty consistently on 80th percentile and up is a good testament to this fact.

Here's the points thus far for reference:

College......2009....2010......2011
Cork..........715...10...725...8....733*
UCD..........719....6...725...10...735
Galway......712*..5...719....9...728*
RCSI.........715*..6...721...11...732
Trinity.......724*..7...731*..8...739*

skinny malinky wrote: »

I think a few pages back hollingr said it was roughly 3000 but I don't know if he was guessing or not.

Not a guess, I emailed them and that's what they said. Approx 3,000 take the hpat each year.

NoHarm1994

I always considered myself a gambler at heart, so here is my predictions for how the points will change. (Purely for the craic so don't take it too seriously )


College......2009....2010......2011................2012
Cork..........715...10...725...8....733*......5...738
UCD..........719....6...725...10...735.......6.....741
galway........712*..5...719....9...728*.....7......735
RCSI.........715*..6...721...11...732......7.......739
Trinity.......724*..7...731*..8...739*.....8.....747 (Based solely on the fact that everyone I know applying for medicine has this down 1st)

Just Like Heaven

Lots more people coming from the UK too to factor in.

Derick990

hollingr wrote: »

A 9 point jump! :eek: I think that's a bit hefty, considering the hpat results have stagnated this year, or even gone down slightly. Every other year there has been an increase in the hpat results, especially last year. Also, you are assuming every single person with 90th percentile or better has a 550+ leaving cert, which certainly isn't the case. The fact that people have been getting in pretty consistently on 80th percentile and up is a good testament to this fact.

Not a guess, I emailed them and that's what they said. Approx 3,000 take the hpat each year.

Oh I agree that its a flawed calculation, as Malinky and you and have both correctly pointed out I made a bit of a sweeping generalisation. It was for simplicity's sake, after all I don't exactly have figures for the correlation between HPAT and LC. I just wanted to base the calculations primarily on the LC stats and to see what happened. Id agree that 8 points is a bit much, more realistically it'll be 5-6.

I'm sorry if it upset anyone, me no do math good.

NoHarm1994

Derick990 wrote: »

Id agree that 8 points is a bit much, more realistically it'll be 5-6.

Let us all pray t'****!

Derick990

NoHarm1994 wrote: »

Let us all pray t'****!

Amen, brother.:)

hollingr

Derick990 wrote: »

Oh I agree that its a flawed calculation, as Malinky and you and have both correctly pointed out I made a bit of a sweeping generalisation. It was for simplicity's sake, after all I don't exactly have figures for the correlation between HPAT and LC. I just wanted to base the calculations primarily on the LC stats and to see what happened. Id agree that 8 points is a bit much, more realistically it'll be 5-6.

I'm sorry if it upset anyone, me no do math good.

look a few pages back, i've been making far more ridiculous stats calcs!


I tried 'merging' the hpat results for comparison.. it's not exact since the x axis figures are different.. but close enough to get a good idea of how the reults have changed in last 3 years:

http://i.imgur.com/J2t7L.png

(coloured originals if you want to play around with them:
http://i.imgur.com/9ghVp.png


Hopefully the slightly lower hpat results will "cancel out" some of the bonus for maths jump.

Derick990

hollingr wrote: »

look a few pages back, i've been making far more ridiculous stats calcs!

I tried 'merging' the hpat results for comparison.. it's not exact since the x axis figures are different.. but close enough to get a good idea of how the reults have changed in last 3 years:

http://i.imgur.com/J2t7L.png

(coloured originals if you want to play around with them:
http://i.imgur.com/9ghVp.png

Hopefully the slightly lower hpat results will "cancel out" some of the bonus for maths jump.

Very interesting....Based on those and the fact that it seems to be the higher points 180+ that seem to be down you have raised a very interesting possibility. Is a 4 point rise really conceivable? :?

That would be frickin' awesome

hollingr

Derick990 wrote: »

Very interesting....Based on those and the fact that it seems to be the higher points 180+ that seem to be down you have raised a very interesting possibility. Is a 4 point rise really conceivable? :?

That would be frickin' awesome

Anything is conceivable at this point.. I think people are underestimating the stranglehold of power the hpat has on ultimately deciding the points. Of course the bonus for maths will make a difference, but personally I feel this is being overstated (**note: I may eat my hat on that one yet)

There was a BIG increase in points from 2010-2011, corresponding to a rather hefty increase in hpat points in the 170+ range:

http://i.imgur.com/o7Sbc.png


If I manage to get the data from ACER to make more accurate comparisons, ye folk will be the first to know!




also, f.y.i... there is less places for mature students than you would think:

rcsi = 15
tcd = 5~
ucd = 2~
galway = 0
cork = 4

tweetybird4848

Just quoting their stats under graphs

2012 143. 29th centile
181 83 rd centile

2011. 143 26 th centile
181 83 rd centile

2010. 139 29 th centile
181. 91 st centile

So from that overall no change this year in h pat results In the higher percentiles which are the only ones that will make an impact on points

pinkballetdance

JackMyBoy wrote: »

With the huge number of posts here in the past week, I simply haven't the time to go through it all.

Could someone give me advice on this please? I'm one of many in this position.

Provided I get 550 points in the LC this year, what would be the best option for me next year, taking into account fees for switching courses, wasting a year, etc. I didn't get enough points in the HPAT, so repeating that next year is a given.

But... I'd rather not start a course in September, and transfer over to Medicine in 2013, as I believe that's frowned upon. Also, I'd hate to spend 4 years doing a course I don't really want to do, only to have to have my dreams dashed by the extremely competitive Grad Entry Medicine applicants.

I'm willing to go to the US and Britain to do Medicine, by the way, if needs be. So, what would be best for me next year, taking all of this into account? I really want to do Medicine!

Hiya, I'm in 1st med in Galway, so just wanted to give you my advice, first of all, are you sure you don't have enough HPAT points? If you really don't think you'll get it my best advice is to do a science course for a year, maybe not science but physio or pharmacy something like that, I never thought that it'd be a good idea but so many people in my year did last year, you can then "progress to 1st med" count that as your premed and not have to pay fees. It really isn't frowned upon.

While doing this year you can work hard on your HPAT and also I'd advise you look into Scotland. If you're worried about money. The UK has £9000 fees a year but if you're an Irish student you won't pay them in scotland. Having one year of science started would be more appealing to them as well. Especially if you don't have all the sciences and higher maths. If you don't already you should look into starting charity work and try get shadowing with a GP or in a hospital- that's easier said than done. If you want any more specific advice on Scotland/UK/UKCAT or UCAS let me know, I went through the whole process last year!

The US isn't an option unless you want to do it post grad, and still VERY difficult to get into. But there is some other places, around Europe people go to. I never applied to any myself so I don't know specifics but I could try fin out for you if you want?

Hope this helps, let me know if you've got any more questions!

ralphding23

Can anyone explain how they decide who goes on the 5 year course at nuig?

finality

I think I'm going to do electronic engineering in Trinity instead of medicine. Enjoy my place, whoever gets it! :P