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Archie's NFL/NCAA Log 2011/2012
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Starting Bank: 50 pts
Preseason: -6.5
Week 1: -10
Week 2: +6.4
Week 3: +30.4
Week 4: -15
Week 5: +20.8
Week 6: +26.1
Week 7: +3.9
Week 8: +12.2
Week 9: +15.7
Week 10: +24
Week 11: +2.3
NFL: -7.9
NCAA: +118.2
Current Bank: 161.7
Profit/Loss: +110.3 (+220.6%)
Bad news - I had added up my weekly profit/loss chart incorrectly. Good news - I had actually passed the 200% mark before the 2 NFL games last Sunday
Correct figures above anyway, on to this week:Baylor (-19.5) @ Kansas
Wake Forest @ Clemson (-16.5)
Kansas are the worst team in the Big 12 - they haven't won a game yet in-conference. Their only wins have come against McNeese State and Northern Illinois, which isn't worth a lot. They've only averaged 19 points a game since those wins, and only 10 points a game in the last 3 weeks. They've been blown out by high powered offences recently, and we can certainly classify Baylor as high powered with Robert Griffin III at QB. Baylor have averaged 41 points a game and that should go up significantly against Kansas, who I think would have to score 4 TDs to keep within this spread of Baylor and I just can't see that happening. 42-17.
Clemson are coming off a bye week after their loss to Georgia Tech. That loss will have been eating away at them for 2 straight weeks, so I think they'll bounce back here. They score a lot of points, they've got a stud QB and I expect this to be a typical Clemson game - look like they'll never cover in a million years for the first 3 quarters, and end up covering with ease come the end of the 4th. Wake Forest are just meh, I don't think they can go into the Memorial Stadium and cause any sort of upset. 42-21.
Ohio State (-7.5) @ Purdue
Duke @ Virginia (-10)
Ohio State were given the ridiculous job of covering a huge spread last week it was never going to happen, they're not a team who'll cover huge double digit spreads. However, they have looked very impressive the past few weeks on offence, so hopefully they can combine that with what's been a solid enough defence all year and cover a nice simply 7.5 spread who have been blown out two weeks in a row. Ohio State's failure to cover a ridiculous spread against a poor Indiana side last week actually has this at a favourable spread for us this week. 28-17.
As for Virginia, it's more betting against Duke than it is betting on the Cavaliers. College basketball is back, so the only people who realise that Duke actually have a football team - some of their students, not all of them - can go back to forgetting they exist. Virginia are coming off of a couple of nice road wins, so a crappy Duke team should provide them with an easy win to keep the home fans happy. 35-17.
Alabama (-17) @ Mississippi State
Wisconsin (-26.5) @ Minnesota
You think Alabama will be mad they lost a close one to LSU last week? While you might figure they'll be flat off that loss, Nick Saban is a classic coach who will use that to fuel his players and have them run up one hell of an ass-whooping over Mississippi State. Bama can still go to the National Championship Game. Oklahoma State still have two very tricky games coming up - I think they'll lose at least one of them which would put Alabama back in the driving seat to face LSU again. All they need to do is win out their games, and win them in style - something they should accomplish with ease. 35-7.
Minnesota suck. While Wisconsin have struggled lately against good teams, they have nothing to worry about this week. They will return to form with Russell Wilson and Montee Ball accounting for half a dozen touchdowns between them, with Minnesota struggling to score one. 52-7.
Tennessee @ Arkansas -14
Arizona -10.5 @ Colorado
Arkansas' offence is on fire. If you exclude the Alabama game (the best defence in the country), they're averaging over 40 points a game. Tennessee meanwhile, are ice cold. In their last 6 games, they've only scored more than 12 once, and that was against a ridiculously bad Middle Tennessee. Take that game out, and they only averaged 7 points a game since the beginning of October. Yes, they were against mostly top 12 teams, but Arkansas are ranked #8 themselves so they are relevant scorelines. The Razorbacks should roll to an easy victory here. 49-21.
Arizona have sucked this year. I don't know how it happened, because they have a good quarterback and some decent weapons to support him, but they've just plain sucked. Luckily, Colorado suck even worse and have statistically one of the worst offences and defences in college football. Arizona should look like the team they should be, even if just for one day. 31-14.
Missouri
Michigan State -3 @ Iowa
Texas look like they've found some momentum. They've got the kid Bergeron at running back who looks like he could dominate college football for the next few years, and they've got a young QB in David Ash who is improving each week. They will just keep pounding the ball at Missouri, and while this appears to be a shootout in the making, a spread of -1 means all I need is Texas to win and I'm very confident of that. 38-35.
Iowa beat a pretty poor Michigan road team last week (I don't know why I insist on betting on Denard Robinson on the road, but hey, I've done it again this week), but they were lucky to do so. Some questionable calls and some poor efforts at catching from the Wolverines receivers were a big component in the win. They haven't beaten anybody else of note this year, and have a couple of shocking losses against Minnesota and Iowa State under their belt. Michigan State are still a 7-2 team, and I think they have too much for Iowa. Again, this is more betting against the underdog than it is betting on the favourite. 31-17.
Michigan (Pick) @ Illinois
Patriots (+2) @ Jets
Up until the 2nd week in October, Illinois looked like a very good team this year. It's all fallen apart though, and losses to teams they should have beaten in Ohio State and Purdue has crushed their momentum, with Penn State edging them in a low scoring game last week. They seem to have just forgotten how to score lately, which is shame for anybody who has AJ Jenkins on their fantasy football team (i.e. me). Michigan also seem to be on a bit of a slide themselves, and while that's only resulted in 2 losses, they've been 2 very poor losses. They're playcalling has been poor, but so has the accuracy of Denard Robinson. I think they get back to the basics this weekend, and get Robinson in position to do damage on the ground. At a pick with no spread, I have to take Michigan. 35-28.
Throwing in an NFL pick with this, it's simple. Tom Brady as an underdog on Sunday Night Football against the team he hates most. Sign me up. It's that simple. I don't care how bad they've looked recently, this has classic Brady written all over it. 27-24.
Nebraska (-3.5) @ Penn State
Oregon (+3.5) @ Stanford
Penn State are dealing with the biggest scandal in college football history at the moment, their coach and president has been fired, riots on campus etc. Players would have spent all week rallying around their coach, can't see how their heads are in the right place considering this is the first time in 61 years Joe Paterno will not be affiliated with their team. Nebraska have a good enough offence to take advantage of that. In addition to all that, their assistant coach has had to take a leave of absence after receiving death threats - all because he reported a child molester to the police!?! Penn State is a mess, Nebraska should roll. 35-17.
And Stanford's injuries keep mounting, I hadn't realised Owusu was out this weekend (probably should have figured given the severity of the hit he took, but I was waiting for news and forgot to check yesterday). Also, Oregon are still one of the best teams in the country, their only loss was to LSU who on the opening weekend who we now know are the number 1 team in the country. I think Oregon will win straight up, so I'll gladly take the safety net of them being able to lose by a field goal and still cover. 42-38.
Houston (-34) @ Tulane
It's a road game, but I trust Case Keenum in a dome. (This bet has already won, Thursday night game).0 -
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El Horseboxo wrote: »Great write ups dude. Good luck this weekend. Feel confident in your bets. Houston are a covering machine. They've surpassed Stanford in my books. Albeit against weaker opposition.
Cheers man. Something so depressing about the fact we're in Week 11 already - the season will be over in no time
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Cam Newton wrote: »Cheers man. Something so depressing about the fact we're in Week 11 already - the season will be over in no time
I know. It's flying in. Only upside is college hoops for me. But even that comes with a price. No NBA. If you like basketball at all there's some great value in the college game.0 -
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I'd like to thank bookies for making Tom Brady an underdog on SNF against the Jets. Keep up the good work
Starting Bank: 50 pts
Preseason: -6.5
Week 1: -10
Week 2: +6.4
Week 3: +30.4
Week 4: -15
Week 5: +20.8
Week 6: +26.1
Week 7: +3.9
Week 8: +12.2
Week 9: +15.7
Week 10: +24
Week 11: +8.8
Current Bank: 166.8
Profit/Loss: +116.8 (+233.6%)0 -
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From looking at your new sig please tell me your not going to be changing your name to Tim Tebow?!
Nope, too cheap to subscribe againSo nobody has been able to figure out why the line doesnt follow expevtations?
Nothing that I've seen explains it anyway, only possible explanation is that Klein (Kansas State QB) isn't 100% but he hasn't been 100% for a few weeks now, he's still putting up loads of points. On another forum I use, there's a guy who attends Kansas State and he says there's nothing going on to suggest there'll be anyone missing or suspended or anything like that. Just a bizarre spread, and it has me bloody worried to be honest! 0 -
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