Archie's NFL/NCAA Log 2011/2012

UnitedIrishman

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Ugh, bloody Wisconsin.

I'm gonna throw that USC (-23.5) in with Nebraska (-35) if that's what the spread is, or less.

That was a sick way to lose out. Fell asleep just as it went 50-3 to Wisconsin. Followed you on the double and did another double myself. Both let me down by a single score.

Ah well, in fairness Wisconsin looked like it was in the bag. Get the bad luck outta the way early eh?

bradlente

I followed ye there too Tom,unlucky.I wouldn't of got that close on my own anyway so I'll stick with your tips!;)

Peyton Manning

Well that was a horror weekend, and to save some face I'm just going to chalk it down to opening weekend misinformation. Believe me, I learned a few things (NEVER bet on USC) this weekend. Unlike college 'ball, we've had a chance to see what the NFL is like in preseason, so I'm reasonably more confident in this weekend's NFL selections.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-3)
New England Patriots (-7) @ Miami Dolphins
5 pts @ 2.59/1

The Raiders demolished the Broncos in this game last year, so I think Denver have an awful lot they'll want to prove with revenge on their minds. The big factor here is that Nnamdi Asomugha is no longer a Raider, and this impacts the whole team. Pound for pound, Asomugha is the best player in the NFL, I have no doubt about that - so losing him is a monstrous blow. Kyle Orton should start the season in fine form again, and his connection with Brandon Lloyd last year was at times devastating. With no Asomugha to keep Lloyd in check, the Raiders have a big problem. Knowshon Moreno and Willis McGahee on the ground are a nice 1-2 and compliment each other well - I would be very trusting of McGahee on goal line sitautions. Denver's defence also has 2 of the biggest playmakers on the field in Elvis Dumervil (missing all of last year) and the freak Von Miller. Their pass rush will be very hard to cope with, and with Champ Bailey in coverage, I think Denver shades the competition in the key areas of the field. Of course, they will have to cope with Darren McFadden, but sometimes it comes down to simply believing one team will outscore the other.

As for the Patriots, well they've covered a 7 point spread in 5 of their last 6 season openers. I can't see Chad Henne doing much against New England. It would be something if he had the support of the home crowd, but I fully expect him to be booed off the field at the half. The thing is, New England will lead in this game and it will be on Henne to throw the ball to get the Fins back into it, but he just doesn't have that ability. If for some reason that Reggie Bush decides he now wants to be an NFL player and looks good running the ball, the Pats can simply put Andre Carter and Albert Haynesworth in their front 4 - ain't nobody running on them and Big Vince. But the most important factor in this game, as usual, is that this is Tom Brady playing Monday Night Football against a division rival. It just helps that this is perhaps the most talented Patriots team in years against a poor Dolphins roster. This spread will definitely rise beyond -7.


Indianapolis Colts (+9) @ Houston Texans
New Orleans Saints (+4) @ Green Bay Packers
5 pts @ 2.59/1

Peyton Manning is out, and everybody is lumping their savings on the perennial sleeper in Houston. The thing is, as desperate as the Texans have been to beat the Colts over the years, they got that out of their system on the opening day last year. Yes they'll still want to win this time round, but will it matter as much without the Sheriff on the field? I can't deny that the Texans have improved everywhere this off season, nowhere more than with the appointment of Wade Phillips as defence co-ordinator. But it's a system they're still getting used to, especially with the lockout having eaten up valuable preparation time. I won't deny they've gotten better, but even without Manning, they're not 9 points better than the Colts. Peyton is pretty much offensive coordinator in Indy, but he'll dial something up for a veteran like Kerry Collins to get the best out of hugely talented players like Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark and Joseph Addai.

As for the Saints, well Drew Brees is an underdog on a nationally televised game. Last time that happened, he lifted the Lombardi trophy over his head about 60 minutes later. The Packers defence were sloppy as hell in preseason. A good pass rush can mask that, but Drew Brees is killer against the blitz and should have lots of success there. This game could be a classic shoot out, and with both teams having less than elite running games, I expect both QBs to go over 300 yards passing. The over/under 47 also looks like really good value, but I'm sticking with Drew Brees as an underdog.

Will add a couple more bets in the next few days.

Peyton Manning

Last NFL double for the weekend, some really nice picks in College Football coming up tomorrow hopefully.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals (-7)
Tennessee Titans (+1.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguuars
5 pts @ 2.82/1

The Panthers aren't very good. That's not much of a shock considering their record last year, but they haven't even shown glimpses of improvement in the offseason. And why would they? They've upgraded very little over the summer and don't have much to show for it as a result. I just don't see them staying within 7 points of the Cardinals. Maybe last year, when the Cardinals were also pretty bad, but not with Kevin Kolb under centre. Kolb has worked out with Larry Fitzgerald all summer, and they look like they've struck up an impressive connection. Beanie Wells is poised for a breakout year, and Patrick Peterson could have a big impact on the defence. I think he'll surpass what Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie offered, who really looked disinterested at times last year. The Cardinals should win this one comfortably, I'm thinking in the region 30-16.

As for the Jaguars, they really looked bad in preseason. Maurice Jones Drew is not 100%, he's even admitted as much himself. Garrard is gone. He was no world beater, but he was a serviceable QB who could make the odd play. Luke McCown will start now and I think he could struggle, but more important is the fact the Titans can now focus on stopping MJD as McCown doesn't have the ability to punish them down the field. It's the exact opposite in Tennesee - they've brought in a better QB than what they had available. Matt Hasselbeck brings much needed stability and experience to the position, and he'll also prevent Jacksonville from loading the line of scrimmage to stop Chris Johnson. If they do that, Hasselbeck will punish them with the likes of Kenny Britt and Nate Washington downfield. This strikes me as a 20-6/9 sort of game for the Titans, so I definitely like them as underdogs.

Peyton Manning

Last NFL double of the weekend, I promise

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills (+6) @ Kansas City Chiefs
5 pts @ 2.64/1

Joe Flacco has never beaten Ben Roethlisberger, and I don't think he finally does that this weekend, not when he was such a new receiving core to get used to. Gone are his two security blankets in Todd Heap and Derick Mason, and in comes Lee Evans and Torrey Smith. Evans has been out of the game for a year, although he has looked sharp in preseason. Torrey Smith has all the attributes to be a great receiver, except for the most important one - not dropping the ball. I hardly think he'll solve that issue knowing he's seconds away from being dismantled by Troy Polamalu. The Steelers are just an awesome organisation, and they draft so well. The Ravens, well I just don't like Cam Cameron enough as an offensive coordinator to get past Pittsburgh. My money is with Big Ben and his perfect 6-0 record over Joe Flacco.

The Chiefs are being wicked over rated this season. I think they over performed hugely last year, the only decent team they beat was the Chargers in Week 1, and they always start slow anyway. The Bills, well, their hardly decent but I think the Chiefs - and specifically Matt Cassell - will miss Charlie Weiss an awful lot. I think they'll win, but not by the 6 points being projected. There's not that much between these two teams imo.

Peyton Manning

Getting this in now, because I expect the spread to move in the next few hours.

Arizona @ Oklahoma State (-14)
TCU (-1) @ Air Force
5 pts @ 2.64/1

Juron Criner did not travel for Arizona. He is Nick Foles' go to receiver and a marquee playmaker for the Wildcats - this is a huge, huge loss. What was being billed as a battle of two super stud wide receivers is now just the Justin Blackmon show. Make no mistake about it, Blackmon is the number 1 receiver in college football and he could torch this Wildcats defence, especially with 27 year old Brandon Weeden throwing him the ball. This road game just got a lot tougher for Arizona, and I expect the Cowboys to roll in front of their home crowd having put up 60+ points last week. While it's a worry that they gave up 34 points to such lowly opposition in Louisiana-Layafette, make note of the fact that they only gave up 6 of those points when their starting defence was on the field. But where this game will be won is the offensive lines imo. Both teams have top quality QBs, but Nick Foles has 5 offensive linemen who didn't play last year - they've lost all of last years starters. Oklahoma State meanwhile, have kept all of their front 5, and this is such a huge boost for them.

I am in absolute shock that the spread for TCU has fallen from -2 to -1. I don't think we'll see a stranger spread all year. TCU are so, so superior to Air Force. Sure, they gave up 50 points to Baylor last week, but Robert Griffin III is a favourite for the Heisman and he'll put up equal numbers against many more this year. But TCU also put up 48 of their own points, and Casey Pachall looked very good under centre. Air Force won't put up anywhere near as much as Baylor - their offence isn't equipped to take advantage the same Baylor did. Tank Carder won't be fooled by option plays, and Air Force don't have the receivers to punish TCU. I honestly think TCU could win this by two touchdowns if they want. The -1 is just awfully strange, and I'm all over it.

Headshot

Tom are ya really confident on that TCU bet?

iv a nice double involving them

Peyton Manning

I do really like the TCU bet. The fact that the spread is only -1 just has me confused. I don't see any reason for it to be that low.

CriticEyes

Hey, we were robbed last night!! hard luck. So tonight any tips on Louisville V Florida Panthers and Arizona state V Missouri?? Cheers mate.

El Horseboxo

Tom_Brady wrote: »

I do really like the TCU bet. The fact that the spread is only -1 just has me confused. I don't see any reason for it to be that low.

Probably due to the 6 starters they've lost since last season and the 2 questionables they have for tomorrow. Not to mention a possible slight over-reaction to last weeks defeat at Baylor. I watched that game and although Pachall impressed that TCU team just didn't look anywhere near as good as last season. So maybe it's not too much of an over-reaction. Without a pre season and just one game played it's hard to tell. Air Force have also played very good TCU teams tough at home in the past. Must admit the -1 line surprised me too. There's a lot of money on AF in the American books. Granted most places it's +2 over there. Think i'll keep an eye on in play for this one. Good luck anyways.

Peyton Manning

1 more college double, my last bet for the weekend and one I like.

Stanford (-20.5) @ Duke
Oregon State @ Wisconsin (-20)
5 pts @ 2.64/1

Duke lost to Richmond last week. The best thing I've read about Richmond this week is from a Richmond student, who says their win over Duke made him realise that his college actually had a football team. So Duke, who lost at home to Richmond, are expected to keep within three touchdowns of the best quarterback in the country, and one of the best offences in the country? I'm not buying it at all. This spread could well be covered by half time. Luck and Stepfan Taylor will destroy Duke.

Similarly, Oregon State lost to Sacremento State last week. Sacremento's schedule every year is largely made up of teams you didn't know existed, and Oregon State lost to them. Now they're expected to travel to #8 ranked Wisconsin who looked sensational last week, destroying UNLV by 34, and Oregon State are supposed to stay within 3 touchdowns? No way, Russell Wilson, James White and Montee Ball will have a field day in front of their own fans. It should be a blowout.

Was so tempted to take a double that involved Michigan +3 as I think Notre Dame are, as usual, horrendously over rated but I couldn't find another pick I liked to go with it.

CriticEyes

TCU is +1 with Paddy Power. How do you think this go? Is it maybe lumping material or is it a mistake from PP?

Peyton Manning

It's gone to +1 because Ed Wesley and Tanner Brock are out of the game. It makes me less confident, but not by a lot. Now maybe a 3.5 or 4 out of 5 confidence bet. Still think they'll win comfortably though, Air Force aren't as equipped to take advantage of the TCU weaknesses as Baylor were.

Peyton Manning

Wisconsin already up by 7. I usually don't like to comment in here during games, but that TD is as a result of Oregon State punting for -4 yards.

Yes, negative yardage on a punt.

Just had to point that out

Headshot

Headshot wrote: »

Tom are ya really confident on that TCU bet?

iv a nice double involving them

get in there

thanks Tom for the TCU tip

Peyton Manning

Nice one! Kept checking my phone for updates, looks like it was even more of a blow out than expected!

Glad you made a few quid HS, spend it on something nice

Peyton Manning

I was only semi-tipsy earlier, so perhaps I didn't celebrate enough.

Get the fook in! No matter what happens in NFL tomorrow, profit

Peyton Manning

Going for a double of LSU (-3) and Texas Tech (-20) this weekend. Will have more doubles but getting this in early as the LSU game is tonight. Won't do a big write up as im posting from my phone but I just think LSU are too strong for Mississippi State who aren't a real contender. You can talk about the home crowd, the Thursday night audience etc. but truth is SEC teams get hostile receptions everywhere they go. This season is building up to the LSU - Alabama showdown in November and I don't see any other teams spoiling that. Also, LSU had pretty much an exhibition game last week while MSU gave their all and came up short against Auburn. Above all else, LSU's defence is the best in the country, and if Oregon can't run on them, then MSU will struggle too. LSU are a monster this year, I like them to cover comfortably.

As for Texas Tech, this spread is far too low. New Mexico have put up 13 points this year so far. Texas Tech are coming off a bye week and should dominate. Spread could well be -28 and I'd take it.

Will also be betting on Boise -20 and Wisconsin -16.5, more on those tomorrow.

Headshot

Tom

are ya confident about Texas Tech handicap?

Just have them in a double with LSU (which won last night, thank you Tom)

Peyton Manning

Headshot wrote: »

Tom

are ya confident about Texas Tech handicap?

Just have them in a double with LSU (which won last night, thank you Tom)

I should hope so, I have money on it myself :pac:

TT are a decent team that can put up a lot of points against poor opposition. New Mexico are one of the worst teams in the country. They lost to Colarado State in week 1 (one of those teams where you go "Huh, Colarado State have a football team. Fancy that!"). Arkansas beat them by 49 last week too at half pace. Texas Tech beat them by 35 last year at home, a season in which they went 1-11 and lost by margins of 72, 35, 42, 35, 18, 2, 10, 24, 25, 33 and 49. Obviously they are prone to being blown out of the water by anywhere near decent teams, so I wouldn't expect Tech to have too much trouble. They had a bye week last week, so are well rested and will have had loads of time to watch game tape on how Arkansas made bits of NM so they can do the same.

Headshot

Thanks Tom

You know im not interested in American Football but I stayed up to watch the LSU game. What ****ing awful game to watch, bit pissed off I missed some of my sleep :pac:

Peyton Manning

Haha yeah, I've heard it was an ugly defensive game. But that's LSUs defence and that's why they're so good!

If you want to see a beautiful offense, watch Boise State @ Toledo on ESPN tonight. Kellen Moore (Boise's QB) could well be my favourite player in college football. Just ruthless efficiency, I've said it before but he's the Tom Brady of college football. Nothing phases him!

Headshot wrote: »

Thanks Tom

You know im not interested in American Football but I stayed up to watch the LSU game. What ****ing awful game to watch, bit pissed off I missed some of my sleep :pac:

El Horseboxo

I was looking at both Texas at UCLA and Texas Tech at New Mexico yesterday. And having looked into the figures a bit more the more i like TT to win by a minimum of 30 points. Think i'll jump on board. Currently at -20.5.

Peyton Manning

Took that second double yesterday too.

Boise State (-20) @ Toledo
Wisconsin (-16.5) @ Northern Illinois
5 units 2.72/1

Boise State are simply an awesome football team every day of the week. So the fact they've had an extra week off in comparison to Toledo is what makes me like this bet. Toledo put their heart, soul and everything in between into trying to beat an over rated Ohio State circus last week, and they came up just short. They'll be exhausted, and Kellen Moore at QB for Boise is the one signal caller in all of college football you want to avoid when you're in that condition. He'll keep throwing to sidelines, tiring out your secondary, and then he'll slice you open down the middle. He's clinical, surgical, ruthless and efficient. There are very few better than him in college football right now, and I think Moore and a fresh Boise team put up more than 20 points against a beat Toledo, even if it is on the road.

As for Wisconsin, I'm not getting off this bandwagon until it stops making me money. I like betting on teams who can both pass and run the ball with ease, and Wisconsin's double edged sword is better than most others in the country. Russell Wilson is a stud under centre, and the Montee Ball - James White 1-2 at running back is too difficult to stop. Northern Illinois are scoring at will, but they haven't faced a force like Wisconsin yet. This will be close in the first half but I expect Wisconsin to pull away with the Huskies eventually losing hope and interest. It should cover at some stage in the 4th quarter.

Eire-Dearg

Can't wait for the Boise game tonight

Peyton Manning

Have decided to also go with the following double:

Oklahoma (-3) @ Florida State
Stanford (-9) @ Arizona
5 pts @ 2.62/1

I think Oklahoma are going to the National Championship (where they'll play Alabama, imo). They're just ridiculously loaded with talented players, and their offence is the most stacked in the country. No matter how many points they might give up on defence against Florida State, I like Landry Jones, Ryan Broyles and co. to simply put up more. Jones is my favourite for the Heisman, and Broyles may well be the best wide receiver in the country that isn't named Justin Blackmon. Florida State are pretenders imo, and shouldn't be mentioned when discussing championship contenders. I think the Sooners show them up for what they really are today with at least a 2 touchdown victory.

I'm also going with Andrew Luck again. Arizona are a good team, but Juron Criner is not 100% (if he even plays) and Nick Foles will struggle without him. This is Stanford's first PAC 12 game of the season so I like them to put on a show and establish early dominance in the conference. The reason Andrew Luck is so effective is because of Stepfan Taylor. He's a legitimate stud running back, and lulls defences into loading the box in an attempt to stop him. Of course, Luck then proceeds to shred the secondary on the play action. Foles and co. will have a hard time keeping up with the number 1 draft pick in 2012.

I also happen to really like Oklahoma St. at -13.5 but there's nothing else I like enough to double it with.

Eire-Dearg

I know Florida St are good but does that spread not flatter them a bit?

Peyton Manning

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

I know Florida St are good but does that spread not flatter them a bit?

That's exactly what I'm thinking! And the Sooners have to be secretly delighted that they're only -3. A convincing victory over the #5 ranked team and a heavy covering of that spread would mean it would take a spectacular cock up for them not to go to the national championship game. The motivation for them will be huge, win this comfortable and they can game manage their way to the championship game, except maybe for the last week against Oklahoma State for obvious reasons. It's a great spot for the Sooners to beat -3 imo - it's the one big statement game they have until the final week. Should be a cracker though, if either teams wants to go to the big game, they have to win tonight. Loser won't have a chance.

Oh, and I never looked at what times the games I'm betting on are starting. Stanford @ Arizona starts at 3:45am - Gonna clash with the Mayweather fight

Eire-Dearg

Thoughts on West Virginia (-1) @ Maryland? It was +1 earlier in the week IIRC.

Peyton Manning

Maryland haven't beaten West Virginia in years, I don't see them doing it today now that two of their starting receivers have been suspended indefinitely. I wouldn't bet on it simply because Maryland's season is all about this game (they HATE West Virginia) and because it's such a big rivalry, but if I was forced to even for an interest bet, I'd take WV.