Archie's NFL/NCAA Log 2011/2012

Peyton Manning

Today is as good a day as any to launch the new log - the lockout is officially over

Had a hell of a lot of fun last year, made some money, learned some lessons and lost years off my life. Will throw up my first few picks in a couple of weeks with some season previews dotted along the way, but I just needed to mark the occasion,

Footballs back folks

x PyRo

Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaah.

:pac:

Glad to have you back.

LightningBolt

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Today is as good a day as any to launch the new log - the lockout is officially over

Had a hell of a lot of fun last year, made some money, learned some lessons and lost years off my life. Will throw up my first few picks in a couple of weeks with some season previews dotted along the way, but I just needed to mark the occasion,

Footballs back folks

Welcome back lad!

johnmcdnl

Gonna take into the NFL betting this year so time to see how much I really know

This is gonna be my first year watching college ball so gonna take a step back but I'll be really interested in seeing how you get on

fkiely

Great to have you back. Looking forward to the new season and your selections.

CriticEyes

Hey man. Welcome back i look forward to your posts. Best of luck with the new log.

Peyton Manning

Before I go into any of my weekly game bets, I'm going lay out 25 points on the following season-long bets, and revisit this come the end of the year. They're not as fun as the game bets, simply because it's a longer wait to see if they're successful or not, but there's a couple of them I really like. I'll track these separate to the rest of my weekly bets which will probably have a bank of 100 points. Anyway, for now...

5 pts on Julio Jones - Offensive Rookie MVP @ 5/1 (Bet365)

It's going to be a hard year for rookies with the shortened off season and less time to get to grips with the step up to the professional game, but I think Julio Jones is in the best position to do so, for several reasons. First, he'll be stepping right into an offence with a veteran-like QB in Matt Ryan and two explosive players on offence in Michael Turner and Roddy White, which means defences will not double up on Jones. He'll see plenty of targets from Ryan, especially in the red zone which is reason number two - he'll rack up a lot of TDs. He's explosive in the red zone. Three, Jones is a very smart player, and a terrific route runner. He's best equipped of all the rookie receivers to make a quick jump up the NFL. Finally, there are a few teams on the Falcons schedule who are weak through the air which is a good match up for Jones. Word has it that he has blown away critics, coaches and team mates with his performances in training camp so far. Oh, and another reason is that his competition for the award aren't too appealing. I'd be shocked if a rookie QB got the award because of a) the awful teams they are on, and b) the shortened offseason and lack of familiarity with the playbook. The latter also applies to running backs too, while Mark Ingram has Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas to share carries with in New Orleans, and Mikel LeShoure will be behind Jahvid Best in Detroit. Julio Jones is a stud, and 5/1 is good value.

5 pts on Ray Rice - Most Rushing Yards @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Rice is my favourite to lead the NFL in rushing yards for a variety of reasons. He's the feature back in Baltimore, and has the best full back in the league now blocking for him. Vontae Leach was a big reason Arian Foster put up the numbers he did last year, and I like him to Rice a big favour this year. Rice's competition in Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson have terrible offensive lines in front of them which will harm their production, and Arian Foster is his only real threat but it would be a rarity if he finished as the leading rusher twice in a row. Jamaal Charles will continue to split carries in Kansas, while Maurice Jones Drew and Michael Turner are injury concerns. Ray Rice is in a great spot to lead the league this year.

10 pts on Washington Redskins - Under 6.5 wins @ 8/15 (Victor Chandler)

The Redskins are awful, I'm going to have a ball betting against them this year. I don't see 7 games that they stand a chance in, let alone could win in their schedule this year. The ones in bold are games that they have a chance of not getting the crap beat out of them. Giants, Cardinals, @ Cowboys, @ Rams, Eagles, @ Panthers, @ Bills, 49ers, @ Dolphins, Cowboys, @ Seahawks, Jets, Patriots, @ Giants, Vikings, @ Eagles. That's six games I give them a shot of not being embarrassed in. Another way of looking at is my QB rule. Look at the best teams in the league - Patriots, Packers, Saints, Colts, Steelers - all have recognisable quarterbacks. These QBs are recognisable because they're good, and damn good too. Now look at some of the worst teams in the league last year - Panthers, Cardinals, Bills, Titans, Browns etc. All had rubbish, barely recognisable QBs. Now consider the Redskins QB - John Beck. Here we have a man who is supposed to be your leader and your voice. Well, John Beck was refused entry to the Redskins stadium during the lockout because security didn't know who he was. Oh God, my money is so safe here.

5 pts on Landry Jones - Heisman Trophy Winner 7/1 (SkyBet)

Landry Jones will be a superstar, and I like him to win the Heisman because of his own talent, and because of the talent of those around him. They're a fantastic team, which bodes well for Jones' Heisman aspirations. He'll be there or thereabouts, I don't think Andrew Luck will be as impressive as last year, I think Marcus Lattimore is a year shy of winning it, and my other favourite Denard Robinson has the misfortune of playing for Michigan. My money is with Landry Jones.

LightningBolt

Tom_Brady wrote: »

5 pts on Julio Jones - Offensive Rookie MVP @ 5/1 (Bet365)

It's going to be a hard year for rookies with the shortened off season and less time to get to grips with the step up to the professional game, but I think Julio Jones is in the best position to do so, for several reasons. First, he'll be stepping right into an offence with a veteran-like QB in Matt Ryan and two explosive players on offence in Michael Turner and Roddy White, which means defences will not double up on Jones. He'll see plenty of targets from Ryan, especially in the red zone which is reason number two - he'll rack up a lot of TDs. He's explosive in the red zone. Three, Jones is a very smart player, and a terrific route runner. He's best equipped of all the rookie receivers to make a quick jump up the NFL. Finally, there are a few teams on the Falcons schedule who are weak through the air which is a good match up for Jones. Word has it that he has blown away critics, coaches and team mates with his performances in training camp so far. Oh, and another reason is that his competition for the award aren't too appealing. I'd be shocked if a rookie QB got the award because of a) the awful teams they are on, and b) the shortened offseason and lack of familiarity with the playbook. The latter also applies to running backs too, while Mark Ingram has Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas to share carries with in New Orleans, and Mikel LeShoure will be behind Jahvid Best in Detroit. Julio Jones is a stud, and 5/1 is good value.

5 pts on Ray Rice - Most Rushing Yards @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Rice is my favourite to lead the NFL in rushing yards for a variety of reasons. He's the feature back in Baltimore, and has the best full back in the league now blocking for him. Vontae Leach was a big reason Arian Foster put up the numbers he did last year, and I like him to Rice a big favour this year. Rice's competition in Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson have terrible offensive lines in front of them which will harm their production, and Arian Foster is his only real threat but it would be a rarity if he finished as the leading rusher twice in a row. Jamaal Charles will continue to split carries in Kansas, while Maurice Jones Drew and Michael Turner are injury concerns. Ray Rice is in a great spot to lead the league this year.

Really like these two bets. Rice has been on my radar but I'm waiting another week or two. Julio Jones I've thought about but haven't been 100% sure, great write up has convinced me!

Peyton Manning

Anyone who followed last year knows that most of my good fortune came when I started betting on doubles as opposed to singles. With singles, I needed two wins to cover one loss, whereas with the doubles system, one win would cover two losses. Doubles are harder to predict obviously, but by making sure one of the selections in the double was a favourite of mine I made a nice profit. I'll be doing that again this season, but not during preseason. I'm only throwing one bet on this week, such is the madness of NFL preseason. Important thing is not to get discouraged by any losses in preseason, as they really are verging on pointless in calling (the Patriots went 0-4 in preseason back in 2007, going on to finish the regular season 16-0. Go figure.)


Thursday 11th August, 7:30pm (12:30am Irish Time)
Baltimore Ravens @ Philadelphia Eagles

3 pts on Baltimore Ravens (+3) @ evens (Bet365)

Preseason can be wildly unpredictable because you're really betting on who's 2nd and 3rd string players are not worse than the oppositions (notice the way I didn't say better!). Best thing to do however, is to look at each team's preseason record. The Ravens have won 66% of their preseason games under Harbaugh, and have never lost their opener. That's because the Ravens are a tough, focused team and they treat preseason games the exact same as they'd treat a SuperBowl (slight exaggeration mind). The Eagles have lost 60% of their preseason games under Andy Reid, and there's an awful lot of attention on Philly right now, even in preseason. With all the moves they've made, a lot of the 3rd and 4th string guys won't be seeing as many snaps as they'd like in training camp at the moment, and I think that puts the Eagles at a disadvantage given the long lockout. I like Baltimore to cover here.

Peyton Manning

Disregard anything anyone tells you about tips and sleepers for preseason. Betting on preseason after a lockout like we've had is unprecedented, so there's no telling how teams will cope. I'm out of here until the regular season

LightningBolt

Was tempted to take Falcons tonight but as you say, betting on preseason games is pointless.

Peyton Manning

Go on, I can't help myself. I have a problem, and the rest of you can't say anything - you're in a gambling forum, you have a problem too! :P

Going to go with a double for tonight.


Redskins (-5.0)) @ Colts
Chiefs @ Ravens (-7.0)
2 pts @ 2.72/1 (Bet365)

Basically, both of my picks are playing teams with horrendous preseason records. The Colts are 4-20 since 2005, and the Chiefs are on a run of 1-8 under Todd Haley. Again, I'm going with coaches records as opposed to the talent of each teams' roster. Won't go in to much more detail during preseason, that's all I've got to be honest.

Peyton Manning

That was nice Couldn't stay awake to catch the end of the games, was confident that the Colts were never going to come back though. Got lucky enough with the Ravens, grabbing a TD with 1 minute to go to beat the spread (and then adding another with a few seconds to go for good measure). Nice to get the first win of the log! Also, thanks to johnmcdnl for giving me the idea to log them in a spreadsheet - doing them with pen, paper and calculator last year was incredibly idiotic

Peyton Manning

Sunday 21st August 7:00pm (Midnight Irish Time)
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets

2 pts on New York Jets (-6.5) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

I may have been a bit harsh on the Redskins in my season long betting. I was speaking about them like they were the worst in the league, and it's not that they're better than I originally thought, it's just that there's a team that's worse than them - that's the Bengals. The Jets have so much more quality in depth than Cincinatti and I expect this to be a walk in the park for Rex Ryan's troops. They built up a good lead against the Texans last week, but the Texans came back. Houston showed that weekend and this weekend that they're a hot team, so I'm not concerned - the Bengals don't have that ability. The Jets at home will be far too strong for Andy Dalton (who will be getting more snaps tonight). Marvin Lewis is usually a good bet in preseason, but he's never been head coach of such garbage before. They were crushed 34-3 on their travels last week, and I like the Jets to cover comfortably tonight.

CriticEyes

http://www.soccertvlive.net/watch/79854/2/watch-new-york-jets-vs-cincinnati-bengals.html


Mon JETS!!!

CriticEyes

Nice wan! Cheers mate made a tidy bit off this. Glad to have ya back. Looking forward to the new season! Keep it up.

Peyton Manning

Nice one pal, delighted you made a few quid! Gonna have so much fun betting against the Bengals this year

Peyton Manning

Friday 26th August 8:00pm (1am Irish Time)
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts

4 pts on Green Bay Packers (-9) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Week three in preseason is as close to betting on a regular season game as you'll get. The players have a few weeks of training camp and other preseason games behind them, the coach will give his starters more game time than the other weeks, and they'll start gameplanning for the opposition rather than just focusing on getting reps for squad players. The Packers have greater depth in their roster than anyone else in the NFL. When Rodgers leaves the game, Matt Flynn will step in and he had a brilliant game against the Patriots in the regular season last year. He'd be a starter on a few teams in this league imo. The Colts awful record is also in play again here, they're 4-21 in preseason since 2005, and 1-9 under Jim Caldwell. The Packers also beat the Colts by a whopping 35 points in preseason last year, they could do it by even more this year.

CriticEyes

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Friday 26th August 8:00pm (1am Irish Time)
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts

4 pts on Green Bay Packers (-9) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Week three in preseason is as close to betting on a regular season game as you'll get. The players have a few weeks of training camp and other preseason games behind them, the coach will give his starters more game time than the other weeks, and they'll start gameplanning for the opposition rather than just focusing on getting reps for squad players. The Packers have greater depth in their roster than anyone else in the NFL. When Rodgers leaves the game, Matt Flynn will step in and he had a brilliant game against the Patriots in the regular season last year. He'd be a starter on a few teams in this league imo. The Colts awful record is also in play again here, they're 4-21 in preseason since 2005, and 1-9 under Jim Caldwell. The Packers also beat the Colts by a whopping 35 points in preseason last year, they could do it by even more this year.

Happy out bud. Im all over it with you. Just to let you know Paddy Power are offering -8 if you are interested. G'luck!

Peyton Manning

CriticEyes wrote: »

Happy out bud. Im all over it with you. Just to let you know Paddy Power are offering -8 if you are interested. G'luck!

Feck, already have my bet locked in with Bet365

I'm pretty confident they'll cover the -9 anyway so hopefully not too big of a concern. The Colts did pick up Kerry Collins as back up, he's better than anything else they have under Manning but he'll have very little exposure to Colts' brand of offense, plus Reggie Wayne has been bitching about him joining so hopefully that'll prove to be a distraction! :P

Peyton Manning

Couple more bets for tonight's action that I like. Would like them in a double but using two different bookies so can't double them up unfortunately.

Thursday 25th August 7:30pm (12:30am Irish Time)
Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles

2 pts on Philadelphia Eagles (-7) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Don't have too much time for a big write up as I'm about to run out the door here at work, but I think the Browns are being too hyped up after the last couple of weeks. Going into Philly against a team with huge roster depth is a big ask, and underneath it all, Cleveland are still a pretty poor thing. I think Colt McCoy struggles against the Eagles D tonight, and I think Mike Vick bounces back from last week's disappointed. In Vince Young and Mike Kafka, the Eagles have one of the best 2nd and 3rd string QB combos in the league. It's also worth point out (barely) that Kafka will forever have legendary status with me, having won me a bet at this week of preseason last year with a last second TD pass

---

Thursday 25th August 8:00pm (1am Irish Time)
Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens

2 pts on Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) @ 10/11 (PaddyPower)

Like the Browns, the Redskins are being overhyped. They beat the Colts last week, but that was the preseason Colts, who have a record of 4-21 going back to the 2005. It means nothing, and I can't see them covering a 4.5 spread in Baltimore. As I said my previous write up for Green Bay, this is the one week where coaches take preseason even remotely seriously, and for that reason I think the Ravens roll over Washington.

Peyton Manning

Oh well, you win one, you lose one. That Eagles game went exactly to plan, but the Redskins put up more of a fight than I thought. The Ravens won, but unfortunately didn't cover the spread. Hindsight is great and all, but that Ravens second/third string defence is really poor. Lucky I didn't put them in a double after all! Here's hoping the Packers do the biz tonight. I've alse been racking my brain about whether I should take the Pats at -4 over the Lions, I'll think about it some more but I might just go with it.

Peyton Manning

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Friday 26th August 8:00pm (1am Irish Time)
Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts

4 pts on Green Bay Packers (-9) @ 10/11 (Bet365)

Week three in preseason is as close to betting on a regular season game as you'll get. The players have a few weeks of training camp and other preseason games behind them, the coach will give his starters more game time than the other weeks, and they'll start gameplanning for the opposition rather than just focusing on getting reps for squad players. The Packers have greater depth in their roster than anyone else in the NFL. When Rodgers leaves the game, Matt Flynn will step in and he had a brilliant game against the Patriots in the regular season last year. He'd be a starter on a few teams in this league imo. The Colts awful record is also in play again here, they're 4-21 in preseason since 2005, and 1-9 under Jim Caldwell. The Packers also beat the Colts by a whopping 35 points in preseason last year, they could do it by even more this year.

I'm increasing this to a 6 pts bet. The Packers have apparently been running No Huddle offense more and more in training camp. They've only unleashed it on two drives so far this preseason, but to devastating results - both times they went more than 70 yards for a touchdown. Part of the reason this is so effective is being discussed by Packers fans, and I agree with those who think it's down to Aaron Rodgers. He's up there with Brady and Manning in terms of reading defences, and he may be a better offensive signal caller than head coach Mike McCarthy who's more renowned for his defensive playcalling. The Colts, or more specifically, the preseason Colts would not stand a chance if they unleash it tonight - an offense of the Packers' calibre with the weapons available to Rodgers will run riot if they go no huddle tonight. This could get ugly!

Onecoolcookie

Quite fancy the Rams to beat the Chiefs tonight who've had a pretty poor preseason so far, any opinions on this match Tom?

Peyton Manning

Onecoolcookie wrote: »

Quite fancy the Rams to beat the Chiefs tonight who've had a pretty poor preseason so far, any opinions on this match Tom?

It's one I wanted to be on, Todd Haley cares nothing for preseason, he's 1-9 in preseason games as head coach. The only thing that stopped me going for it was that the Chiefs were very unlucky not covering against the Ravens and Haley was major pissed off. I think the Rams will cover tonight though, I'm just not putting my money where my mouth is

Peyton Manning

Actually the Rams are only -1.5, last I checked they were -2.5. I might have some of that, will see what state my account is in when I get home.

mooonpie

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Actually the Rams are only -1.5, last I checked they were -2.5.

-1 on PP now

Peyton Manning

moonpie9588 wrote: »

-1 on PP now

Can't say no to that, it's basically a pick em. I'll go with Rams for 2 pts at -1. Cheers for the heads up.

Peyton Manning

Two doubles to hopefully make up for that Colts disaster.

3 pts on Patriots (-3) + Bears (+3) @ 2.72/1
3 pts on Broncos (-5) + Texans (-3) @ 2.64/1

Peyton Manning

Thank the good Lord, competitive football is finally back! Ol' college ball kick off tonight, and I love betting on college football - I actually made more profit on college than I did on the pros last year, snd I'm sticking with the doubles system which served me well in the run in, so this weekend I like:

Minnesota @ USC (-23.5)
UNLV @ Wisconsin (-35)
5 pts @ 2.64/1
I like pairing these two twogether because the teams I'm betting against - Minnesota and Chatanooga - have several things going against them. First and foremost, they're crap teams. Sorry to be so blunt, but they are. Second, they're both travelling half way across America to play in stadiums with a great atmosphere against ridiculously talented favourites. I'd almost half consider betting on these spreads at half time, let alone full time. I like both to cover, especially Wisconsin.

Oregon (-4.0) @ LSU
Boise State (-3.5) @ Georgia
5 pts @ 2.72/1

This one is risky. These are the two premier games this weekend, all four teams are ranked going in to the season, and two of them will fall a long way come Sunday morning. I think those two will be LSU and Georgia. Oregon @ LSU is intriguing as they are the #3 and #4 ranked teams in the country respectively, but I think Oregon bounces back from the national championship game disappointment and rolls over LSU. There isn't a more exciting team to watch in the country - they are just so quick and play at such a high tempo, that you feel tired just watching them. I think that's where this renowned LSU defence struggles to contain the Ducks and their cast of stars. As for Boise, well I'm putting my money in Kellen Moore's hands. He's the Tom Brady of college football - reads defences like a coach, has the accuracy of a sniper and is the most clutch QB in the game. Georgia struggled without AJ Green last year, he's not there anymore and losing a playmaker of his ability will damage their confidence. They just don't have that wow factor without him. Boise lost their two main wide receivers also, but don't be mistaken - Kellen Moore has always been the man for the Broncos, and they have the talent to step up and take this.

There's another double I have my eye on, but there's no market for the Chatanooga @ Nebraska game on PP or Bet365 so I'll wait until that goes up.

Peyton Manning

Ugh, bloody Wisconsin.

I'm gonna throw that USC (-23.5) in with Nebraska (-35) if that's what the spread is, or less.