July 14, Stage 12: Cugnaux - Luz-Ardiden 209km

petethedrummer

Good man Basso. Finally justifies my faith in him.

Lumen

smithslist wrote: »

It's going too be very hard for Roche to keep a top 10 spot, as he is now with the big boys and no much room for loss.

I fear for the ITT.

smithslist

Lumen wrote: »

I fear for the ITT.

Especially if Kloden and Leipheimer gets closer to him, or any other ITT experts

BQQ

smithslist wrote: »

It's going too be very hard for Roche to keep a top 10 spot, as he is now with the big boys and no much room for loss.

I see only Voeckler dropping outside the top 10 when he loses the yellow, the rest (placed 2nd-9th) I find it hard that they will lose time unless something happens....here's hoping Roche get's his form!!!!

I agree that most ahead of him now will stay ahead of him, but I can't see many riders overtaking him either.
For the first time I'm confident he can achieve a top 10.

kennyb3

smithslist wrote: »

Especially if Kloden and Leipheimer gets closer to him, or any other ITT experts

True but plenty of mountains he could put time into them too, if he rides like today.

Today should bring him on a lot with regards to the alps next week.

velopeloton

Good ride by Roche

http://www.velopeloton.com/photo-gallery/luz-ardiden-stage-12-2011-tour-de-france/

12 sprocket

Originally Posted by smithslist
It's going too be very hard for Roche to keep a top 10 spot, as he is now with the big boys and no much room for loss.


Is that the old irish inferiority complex coming through from smithlist.... "He is now with the big boys" He has proved time after time that he has the ability to be with the BIG BOYS....

Go on Nicolas!!

velopeloton

12 sprocket wrote: »

Originally Posted by smithslist
It's going too be very hard for Roche to keep a top 10 spot, as he is now with the big boys and no much room for loss.


Is that the old irish inferiority complex coming through from smithlist.... "He is now with the big boys" He has proved time after time that he has the ability to be with the BIG BOYS....

Go on Nicolas!!

He is one of the big boys.

Tree Scape

velopeloton wrote: »

He is one of the big boys.

:)

JacksonHeightsOwn

i still think the crash the Dauphine has hampered his plans, i hope im not being naive, but when you look at his Vuelta performance of last year, and even his last few days in the tour last year, he was consistently dropping the likes of Basso and everyone from Radioshack,

so "knock on wood" he can keep that top 10, and please god he even wins a stage, now that would be amazing!!

kenmc

mahoo wrote: »

contador is not in good shape...

Wonder if there're any good butchers in that part of the country?

Sundy

chrisbonnie wrote: »

i still think the crash the Dauphine has hampered his plans, i hope im not being naive, but when you look at his Vuelta performance of last year, and even his last few days in the tour last year, he was consistently dropping the likes of Basso and everyone from Radioshack,

so "knock on wood" he can keep that top 10, and please god he even wins a stage, now that would be amazing!!

Basso last year was on different form to the one we saw today.

I though roche did quite well today. Lots of big names blew up early; Kloden, Martin and Gesink

sleepyholland

Sundy wrote: »

chrisbonnie wrote: »

i hope im not being naive, but when you look at his Vuelta performance of last year, and even his last few days in the tour last year, he was consistently dropping the likes of Basso and everyone from Radioshack,

Yeah, Basso peaked at the Giro last year and on top form definitely outclimbs Roche. It'll be tough for him to stay top 10. But he could sneak it. Especially if/when Tommy V's body gives up, and if there are any more causalties. If Contador gets worse by the day rather than better, I wouldn't be surprised if he abandoned with a flimsy excuse rather than finish outside the top 5.

But bravo Roche and his teammates.

plasmaguy

Brilliant race today.

This tour has been really good.

Would I be right in thinking it's the most open tour in years?

The two Schlecks, Evans, Contador and Voeckler, I reckon one of those will take it. I can't see any dark horses winning it outside of those five.

Fair play to Roche by the way, but he really needs a strong team to get on the podium if that's his aim. Good thing is he's young and I would say can only improve.

My guess is we will see him on the podium in Paris for the GC within the next 5 years.

leftism

sleepyholland wrote: »

If Contador gets worse by the day rather than better, I wouldn't be surprised if he abandoned with a flimsy excuse rather than finish outside the top 5.

I reckon that is a big possibility now! He looked very human today. Either the Giro took too much out of him, or he's missing some of that "Spanish beef" that worked so well for him in the past....

Does anyone else think Frank is a better overall GC prospect than Andy? I know its only the first proper mountain stage but he looked much stronger. Has anyone told Andy he cannot win the Tour sitting on his brothers wheel and waiting for all the other GC contenders to tire? Just don't think he has that killer kick that will get rid of Contador, Basso or Evans and he cannot keep relying on the big brother.

plasmaguy wrote: »

The two Schlecks, Evans, Contador and Voeckler, I reckon one of those will take it. I can't see any dark horses winning it outside of those five.

Fair play to Roche by the way, but he really needs a strong team to get on the podium if that's his aim. Good thing is he's young and I would say can only improve.

My guess is we will see him on the podium in Paris for the GC within the next 5 years.

Reckon Basso looks good too and i wouldn't necessarily rule out Sammy Sanchez either... Great to have so many contenders for once!

With regards to Roche, i just don't share your optimism. He's a great rider but when the chips are really down on the steep climbs, he gets spit out by the bigger boys and i can't see that changing any time soon. On top of that, his TT is weak and for some reason he doesn't seem bothered to work on it!

Great rider, but i think he could have notched up several stage wins by now if he wasn't persuing his GC ambitions. I'm not trying to begrudge the guy his chance, but i hope he doesn't look back at his career and regret not chasing some stage victories instead of aiming for a top 10 GC finish. Having said that, i'm glad to see that he still has a good shot at a top 10 finish!

plasmaguy

Hail 2 Da Thief wrote: »

Today confirms that AC wasn't sandbagging anyway!

Possibly not, but then again, maybe he had an off day. It's too early to tell.

A totally fit Contador against the Schleck's, I'd still go for Contador.

It's only the first day in the mountains anyways.

NickDrake

Basso looked very good today. He is the real dark horse. With Evans time trial ability you would have to fancy him to win it.

Andy doesn't seem to be the same shape as his brother.

It is a real shame to see a cyclist with a dodgy past again speeding away from the contenders, Frank does look the real deal this year.

sleepyholland

All the times I read about how Sean Kelly used to win Spring Classics, 5 day tours, grand tours general classement, green jerseys, sprint finishes, and hold his own in the high mountains, I wondered if I'd ever get to see an allrounder like that. This year Phillipe Gilbert is the closest I've seen. He went backwards at the end today, but what an astonishing cyclist

NickDrake

plasmaguy wrote: »

Brilliant race today.

This tour has been really good.

Would I be right in thinking it's the most open tour in years?

The two Schlecks, Evans, Contador and Voeckler, I reckon one of those will take it. I can't see any dark horses winning it outside of those five.

Fair play to Roche by the way, but he really needs a strong team to get on the podium if that's his aim. Good thing is he's young and I would say can only improve.

My guess is we will see him on the podium in Paris for the GC within the next 5 years.

Voeckler? Not a hope.

Roche will really struggle to make the top10 , his teammates are riding better than him so it will help.

petethedrummer

sleepyholland wrote: »

All the times I read about how Sean Kelly used to win Spring Classics, 5 day tours, grand tours general classement, green jerseys, sprint finishes, and hold his own in the high mountains

The sport has changed since then. Stages are faster from the start, I think it was Greg Lemond who said stages used to start reeeeal slow, slow enough for a sunday rider to keep up. The talent pool is wider and sport science is more advanced so the field is more even. People have to target events now and peak to win rather than plateau and try to win all season.

Evans looks the closest to an all rounder these days. I'd love to see him enter Paris Roubaix with the intention of winning. hmm but he has no sprint, so eh maybe not.

mahoo

interesting to see how the odds have changed from yesterday. A schleck still favourite at 11/10 . evans still 3/1. contador out to 9/2. F schleck in to 5/1 and basso in to 16/1..

Today confirmed for me that Frank is in much better shape than andy this year. thought the same in the tour of switzerland but thought andy might be taking it easy.
cant write off contador yet. you have to allow him a bad day. but with the giro in the legs and the falls i'm not sure if he'll even make the top 3.
Evans would be favourite in my book now, although he's going to have one bad day in the mountains im sure. depends how bad..
Basso is looking like a good dark horse. comfortable today. quiet year. who knows! podium place
Frank is looking good but his ITT is so **** i cant see him beating evans, unless evans has a really bad day in the mountains. which is possible. soooo...
God damn it. its wide open. and i love it ... thankfully im not a betting man

TinyExplosions

leftism wrote: »

Does anyone else think Frank is a better overall GC prospect than Andy? I know its only the first proper mountain stage but he looked much stronger.

I wonder about that.... it could be that Frank was sent up the road yesterday to test Contadors legs -they were doing a few "Frank attacks", "Andy attacks" 1-2's and it could be that they sent him up the road to see what response there'd be (if any). He didn't put in a huge amount of time, and could be very useful to Andy's cause in the days to come.

IIRC, Leopard have always been certain that Andy is the leader and GC man, and Frank is there to help.

lukester

I thought it was pretty obvious that Frank was just sent up the road as a tactical move, hoping Contador would follow. The Schlecks have used that tactic before in an attempt to wear Contador down. Andy is undoubtedly their main GC contender.

Impressed by Basso yesterday, although not convinced he can put any time into Andy Schleck on a climb.

Voeckler was hugely impressive- didn't expect him to hold onto yellow yesterday. He's near the top of my man-crush list. As is Szmyd.

antomagoo

Great photo from yesterdays stage, can imagine Rolland saying "We did it", while Voeckler thinking "Thank f#*k thats over"

Chips Lovell

Frank Schleck has never been a GC man for a three week Tour. He hasn't been able go well every day and invariably has a few bad ones. He's also even worse than the brother at the time trials.

ROK ON

I was hugely impressed with the domestique (Rolland) that stayed with Voeckler all the way to they top. He looked completely at ease. Of all the final bunch, he looked by far and away the most comfortable.
Great day by Europcar.

tunguska

Whopper stage yesterday. Schleck boys should've attacked on Tourmalet though, they left it way too late. Is Contador just playing Possum?