Winter 2011/2012

only one

Oh ok. I must have a look

Wild Bill

Su Campu wrote: »

Theta-e is the psuedo-Equivalent Potential Temperature. It takes into account the temperature and water vapour content of the air at a certain level. It is the temperature that a parcel of air at a certain level would have if all its moisture were removed and then the parcel brought dry-adiabatically to 1000 hPa. Higher values mean a warmer and/or more humid airmass, while lower values mean a colder and/or drier airmass. For snow to sea level, we need theta-e around 9 °C. It's going to get to around 11-12 °C on Friday, which should keep the snowline a little higher.

The relative humidity of the layer snow is falling through is an important factor, yes. For the same temperature, snow will melt more slowly falling through a drier layer, as the extra evaporation/sublimation occuring on the snowflake removes more latent heat from the air, cooling it and establishing an equilibrium at a lower temperature, hence reducing melting. This is why it is much easier for us to get snow from an easterly than a more moist polar or Arctic airmass off the Atlantic.

Su - I am amazed. Are you an actual meteorologist??

jimmy.d

vogons forecast could be spot on

pistolpetes11

jimmy.d wrote: »

vogons forecast could be spot on

Its only a short lived incursion ,

Marks forcast is more so pointing to a change in the charts/models from the 15th , reckons they dont have a grip with whats going on at the moment

mcriot29

Vogan is basing his forecast on a change in AO and NAO by 15th or so,we can see now that wont happen as todays forecast shows.The AO is staying on the plus side till at least the 20th so no real blocking, i cant see any dip till 2012.

tzfrantic

mcriot29 wrote: »

Vogan is basing his forecast on a change in AO and NAO by 15th or so,we can see now that wont happen as todays forecast shows.The AO is staying way up till at least the 20th so no real blocking, i cant see any dip till 2012.

my of coarse mean you guess there will be no blocking but still a chance of blocking

jimmy.d

mcriot29 wrote: »

Vogan is basing his forecast on a change in AO and NAO by 15th or so,we can see now that wont happen as todays forecast shows.The AO is staying on the plus side till at least the 20th so no real blocking, i cant see any dip till 2012.

no he said we would see a change from the 15th onwards till the run up to christmas

mcriot29

tzfrantic wrote: »

my of coarse mean you guess there will be no blocking but still a chance of blocking

Yes blocking but in the wrong place,the way the AO is for the next 2 weeks we have a very low chance of the long term freeze vogan predicts from the 15th or even 25th .

BEASTERLY

mcriot29 wrote: »

Yes blocking but in the wrong place,the way the AO is for the next 2 weeks we have a very low chance of the long term freeze vogan predicts from the 15th.

Vogan is not predicting a freeze from the 15th, he says that when we should start to see things start to change with the real cold arriving around mid-january!

mcriot29

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Vogan is not predicting a freeze from the 15th, he says that when we should start to see things start to change with the real cold arriving around mid-january!

He said most of uk will be white for xmas day also he said frist 2 weeks of jan will be the coldest point .If he has now said mid jan hes doing what joe b and piers do, change the forecast when it does not go the way they said it would.

pistolpetes11

mcriot29 wrote: »

Vogan is basing his forecast on a change in AO and NAO by 15th or so,we can see now that wont happen as todays forecast shows.The AO is staying on the plus side till at least the 20th so no real blocking, i cant see any dip till 2012.

If the AO and NAO are to dip by the 15 th or around that date , there would still be a 2-3 week lag time for the effects to take hold , as I posted in the FI its not as bleak as you make it out to be, also dont forget that the chart we look at on AO /NAO are GFS outlooks and we know how they can chop and change as the days go on especially in FI

Chucky Norris

lads im losing my faith in some decent snowfall :(

derekon

mcriot29 wrote: »

He said most of uk will be white for xmas day also he said frist 2 weeks of jan will be the coldest point .If he has now said mid jan hes doing what joe b and piers do, change the forecast when it does not go the way they said it would.

In fairness to Mark Vogan, he is not doing a Piers. His latest forecast is in line with what he forecast at the end of October, most notably:

1. Low pressure systems will line up one after another to sweep over Britain and Ireland during end of November and the first 15 days of December. Would appear to be happening!

2. There will be a cool down from around the 15th December

3. He is of the view that the UK (and probably Ireland by extension) will be under snow cover come Christmas Day

4. The severe cold will take hold during January 1st - January 15th, 2012 with temps dipping into double negatives.

5. Later in January (around the 20th) the core of the cold will move east to mainland Europe

Look, again this is a LRF - and any LRF should be taken with a pinch of salt. However, I will say something for Vogan - he predicted the 09/10 and Nov/Dec 10 freezes very well and has been right so far. Lets cut him a wee bit of slack, sure we still have a bit to go and the AO and NAO could still flip over the coming days....................

ff9999

From Met Eireann website:

There'll be a sharp frost on Friday night. Saturday will be cold and mostly dry. But rain will spread from the west on Saturday night with a high probability of snow overnight and some significant accumulations possible. Further wintry showers following on Sunday.

mike65

Yeah but thats just passing weather not a trend.

StormGazer.11

ff9999 wrote: »

From Met Eireann website:

There'll be a sharp frost on Friday night. Saturday will be cold and mostly dry. But rain will spread from the west on Saturday night with a high probability of snow overnight and some significant accumulations possible. Further wintry showers following on Sunday.

It's kind of baffling where they're getting this forecast from, it's being debated in another thread too so I won't go into it here again for repetition sake but hey hopefully it pans out that ME are right.. For a change

As for Vogan, I certainly think he deserves a break and from what I can see he's stuck pretty close to his original LRF, let's at least cut him some slack until closer to Christmas before we release the hounds, or in this case the vicious snow loving boardsies that could be starved by that stage

nacho libre

according to GP(Chief netweather forecaster) there is a tentative signal for height rises around Svalbard, of course it may not lead to anything.
i suppose it's a straw to clutch at.

Redsunset

I think GP's post needs to go in here too as it looks rather exciting.

GFS ensemble mean has come up with something of an eyecatching mean hight anomaly over Northern Siberia into the Arctic, allied to a deep upper just to the north of the UK. Ordinarily a case of nothing to see here, move along but bear in mind that continued evolution of the MJO event in October is maintaining the pattern fit amazingly well, and last night's CPC 8-14 dayer started to develop this feature which might help to angle the jet on a NW-SE axis into Europe, in time.

Take a look at that December composite for MJO event in October:



and the 6-10 day GFS 12z ensemble means


and 10 - 15 day GFS 12z ensemble means


If these verify anywhere near as the are modelled, we would be getting a strong confirmation for January on paper to look like this...


As I've stated before, it might not look exactly like this due to La Nina, but could there be very tentative signs of the tropospheric polar vortex at least becoming stretched into an odd shape, which might open the door for wave breaking into the stratospheric vortex at the end of the month ?

Tom Cruises Left Nut

Yep, saw that yesterday over on NW, interesting times !

mcriot29

Alot of talk about this weekend regarding the snow.Now there will be snow but certainly not here in dublin looks a lovely sunny weekend although abit nippy.Now i cant see vogans forecast happening now.The AO isnt set to dip at all for the next 2 weeks then you have to take the lag affect into consideration.So i dont think we will see anything servere until at least the middle of january now.Only places that look like getting anything wintry is scotland.So i think mark will be changing his tune over the next week or so.I bet he starts trying to push his forecast for later now.I do like the guy but just cant see it happening around the 15th of december now.As the AO isnt playing ball to his ideas.So i think we can all enjoy been able to get around over xmas.Then look towards mid jan for the cold and snow.

bb1234567

mcriot29 wrote: »

Alot of talk about this weekend regarding the snow.Now there will be snow but certainly not here in dublin looks a lovely sunny weekend although abit nippy.Now i cant see vogans forecast happening now.The AO isnt set to dip at all for the next 2 weeks then you have to take the lag affect into consideration.So i dont think we will see anything servere until at least the middle of january now.Only places that look like getting anything wintry is scotland.So i think mark will be changing his tune over the next week or so.I bet he starts trying to push his forecast for later now.I do like the guy but just cant see it happening around the 15th of december now.As the AO isnt playing ball to his ideas.So i think we can all enjoy been able to get around over xmas.Then look towards mid jan for the cold and snow.

doylem alert! doylem posted the exact same thing word for word on daily mail today..are you doylem?!:eek:

WolfeIRE

bb1234567 wrote: »

doylem alert! doylem posted the exact same thing word for word on daily mail today..are you doylem?!:eek:

Is that the guy who does all the Piers Corbyn quoting and most other members spend their time complaining about his posts? Or am I thinking of someone else?

Incidentally, the defintion of doylem is here.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Doylem&defid=2940828

It's a Geordie word:)

bb1234567

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Is that the guy who does all the Piers Corbyn quoting and most other members spend their time complaining about his posts? Or am I thinking of someone else?

Incidentally, the defintion of doylem is here.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Doylem&defid=2940828

It's a Geordie word:)

am I dont know it might be him, i cant think of anyone else who quotes piers a lot. well he used to be obsessed with piers corbyn and always quoted him because he thought piers was going to forecast a mild winter back in october,but then piers went and forecast a cold winter and now he slags him off:rolleyes: the guys such a troll and acts like he knows for sure as if he a psychic that this winter will be mild! Its so obvious hes a troll, he just posts to annoy people and comes out with blood boiling stuff like ''game over mild lovers , looking increasingly likely a cold winters isnt coming.looking more like a mild and mundane winter than a cold one, think well see a winter more like 07/08 than last years.Hard luck cold lovers always next year, maybe some frost and some dustings of snow in jan on the hills but i just cant see a winter like last year with subzero temps and disruptive snowfall happening again. that madden fellow is looking to be well off the mark, think hell be the one with the egg on his face come march'', and he never posts any evidence to support his bold statements.

some of his other favourite posts are'' X forecaster or forecasting agency are now saying itll be mild winter, oh it really is game over cold lovers..hard luck guys maybe you could all move to canada lol'' or ''I think cold lovers will be in for a big disappointment this winter, I just cant see a cold winter coming this year ,sorry guys'' and then hell make up things that are not even true to annoy us. Like he'll say''charts have just flipped to mild for all winter months, really not looking good is it cold lovers, think youll have to put those sleds and woolys away and replace them with a raincoat and brolly lol'' and he doesnt even post a link? and as if well take a chart for february and january seriously...in october? and hell make up things forecasters never ever said or even hinted like''bastardi just said on winter europe wont have a cold winter this year...or piers now thinking about changing forecast to mild or james madden has changed his tune and now thinks only scotland will get snow'' ,and then we go and check to see what doylem s saying is true about these forecasters and its complete bs.and if any user were to say something like ao going up or sunspots rising or al nina getting stronger, hell immediately repeat what they said and say'' oh dear cold lovers ao at record high this cold winter youre all looking forward to that i knew wouldnt happen is looking to be in serious jeoprady lol'' uhh ive enough of him ill stop now :P god hes just sooooooooooo annoying,he wants to make me tear my hair out...the stuff he comes out with is just unbelievable, if he were on boards hed have been banned months ago...he is what youd call a class A troll. some people were saying that doylem may work for daily mail and was planted there to keep traffic coming to the site, that topic on the daily mail site is the most viwed and posted on topic on the dm website so i'd say they want to keep it alive. the topic has nearly 10000 posts after all .
well as you can see from my post almost no discussion of weather goes on at the dm website winter 11/12 debate. its mostly lots of people arguing with eachother about nothing really all under a loose theme of weather.i still like to look at it from time to time though, but the people on that site can be a little hard to hadle at times.its about 10 % annoying trolls, 10% people who know nothing about weather at all and just ask all day if itll snow in their area on x day. %20 people there to argue for no reason about nothing. 10 %complete snowbies who just talk about how cold this winter is going to be, without any evidence,say things like''this winter will be worse than 62/63 i just know it'' over and over again in different ways. 10% people weirdly devoted to one forecasting group, some people weirdly obsessed with madden,some met,some piers corbyn,some vogan.and about 40% maybe less, normal non argumentitive non trollish normal people there to discuss weather. definitely boards ftw !

esposito

Bloody trolls:mad:

Caff Caff

bb1234567 wrote: »

am I dont know it might be him, i cant think of anyone else who quotes piers a lot. well he used to be obsessed with piers corbyn and always quoted him because he thought piers was going to forecast a mild winter back in october,but then piers went and forecast a cold winter and now he slags him off:rolleyes: the guys such a troll and acts like he knows for sure as if he a psychic that this winter will be mild! Its so obvious hes a troll, he just posts to annoy people and comes out with blood boiling stuff like ''game over mild lovers , looking increasingly likely a cold winters isnt coming.looking more like a mild and mundane winter than a cold one, think well see a winter more like 07/08 than last years.Hard luck cold lovers always next year, maybe some frost and some dustings of snow in jan on the hills but i just cant see a winter like last year with subzero temps and disruptive snowfall happening again. that madden fellow is looking to be well off the mark, think hell be the one with the egg on his face come march'', and he never posts any evidence to support his bold statements.

some of his other favourite posts are'' X forecaster or forecasting agency are now saying itll be mild winter, oh it really is game over cold lovers..hard luck guys maybe you could all move to canada lol'' or ''I think cold lovers will be in for a big disappointment this winter, I just cant see a cold winter coming this year ,sorry guys'' and then hell make up things that are not even true to annoy us. Like he'll say''charts have just flipped to mild for all winter months, really not looking good is it cold lovers, think youll have to put those sleds and woolys away and replace them with a raincoat and brolly lol'' and he doesnt even post a link? and as if well take a chart for february and january seriously...in october? and hell make up things forecasters never ever said or even hinted like''bastardi just said on winter europe wont have a cold winter this year...or piers now thinking about changing forecast to mild or james madden has changed his tune and now thinks only scotland will get snow'' ,and then we go and check to see what doylem s saying is true about these forecasters and its complete bs.and if any user were to say something like ao going up or sunspots rising or al nina getting stronger, hell immediately repeat what they said and say'' oh dear cold lovers ao at record high this cold winter youre all looking forward to that i knew wouldnt happen is looking to be in serious jeoprady lol'' uhh ive enough of him ill stop now :P god hes just sooooooooooo annoying,he wants to make me tear my hair out...the stuff he comes out with is just unbelievable, if he were on boards hed have been banned months ago...he is what youd call a class A troll. some people were saying that doylem may work for daily mail and was planted there to keep traffic coming to the site, that topic on the daily mail site is the most viwed and posted on topic on the dm website so i'd say they want to keep it alive. the topic has nearly 10000 posts after all .
well as you can see from my post almost no discussion of weather goes on at the dm website winter 11/12 debate. its mostly lots of people arguing with eachother about nothing really all under a loose theme of weather.i still like to look at it from time to time though, but the people on that site can be a little hard to hadle at times.its about 10 % annoying trolls, 10% people who know nothing about weather at all and just ask all day if itll snow in their area on x day. %20 people there to argue for no reason about nothing. 10 %complete snowbies who just talk about how cold this winter is going to be, without any evidence,say things like''this winter will be worse than 62/63 i just know it'' over and over again in different ways. 10% people weirdly devoted to one forecasting group, some people weirdly obsessed with madden,some met,some piers corbyn,some vogan.and about 40% maybe less, normal non argumentitive non trollish normal people there to discuss weather. definitely boards ftw !

wow...that's deep but I am glad someone spoke up. I was beginning to think myself that this one is really getting on my goat. I have mentioned Piers here and there as it was through his predictions and of course my desire for knowledge in relation to weather forecasting that inevitably brought me here. Totally unsure of his science but it is interesting. It bitterly cold out at the mo and I do not think anyone, particularly the above mentioned has a clue. To quote Socrates...All I know is that I don't know! The charts are up amd down but I still believe we will see snow by Christmas...well..I hope! Down with Trolling!!

Kippure

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Is that the guy who does all the Piers Corbyn quoting and most other members spend their time complaining about his posts? Or am I thinking of someone else?

Incidentally, the defintion of doylem is here.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Doylem&defid=2940828

It's a Geordie word:)

I started a Piers thread way back.
Everytime i put up new info people tend to go on a rant against peirs.

All im doing is providing information to people to read.
Are people refering to me?

mrweatherman

can anyone please tell me why iwo has gone or whats happening? and will any thing come from this storm tonight eg could it shift south and pull in alot of cold air and possible snow

TheMilkyPirate

Kippure wrote: »

I started a Piers thread way back.
Everytime i put up new info people tend to go on a rant against peirs.

All im doing is providing information to people to read.
Are people refering to me?

I think they're referring to a poster on the daily mail website kippure.

Kippure

baraca wrote: »

I think they're referring to a poster on the daily mail website kippure.

O sound. Thanks.:)

bb1234567

Kippure wrote: »

I started a Piers thread way back.
Everytime i put up new info people tend to go on a rant against peirs.

All im doing is providing information to people to read.
Are people refering to me?

no a person on another forum.