Winter 2011/2012

bb1234567

met office say 40 % chance of colder than avg winter, 30% avg winter,30% mild winter, encouraging i suppose!

TheMilkyPirate

bb1234567 wrote: »

met office say 40 % chance of colder than avg winter, 30% avg winter,30% mild winter, encouraging i suppose!

Link?

thetonynator

bb1234567 wrote: »

met office say 40 % chance of colder than avg winter, 30% avg winter,30% mild winter, encouraging i suppose!

Whose met office? And realistically, thats a ridiculous statement, as it basically tells you nothing. It's practically a statement of the likelihood of winter weather.

mike65

bb1234567 wrote: »

met office say 40 % chance of colder than avg winter, 30% avg winter,30% mild winter, encouraging i suppose!

So there is a 60% chance of no real sustained cold weather then. Not that I would read anything into such numbers.

bb1234567

mike65 wrote: »

So there is a 60% chance of no real sustained cold weather then. Not that I would read anything into such numbers.

aw it sucks when you put it like that:p

bb1234567

thetonynator wrote: »

Whose met office? And realistically, thats a ridiculous statement, as it basically tells you nothing. It's practically a statement of the likelihood of winter weather.

i agree with you, just posting what i heard.:)

bb1234567

baraca wrote: »

Link?

A poster on another forum posted it,this is what he said-''We went to see the Met Office. Their prediction for winter? 40% chance of colder than average, 30% chance of average, 30% chance of milder than average. What a total waste of time and money. Thoroughly useless!''
I asked him to post a link.I'll post it if he replies.

bb1234567

Anyone notice this trend..Temps wise.
Winter 08/09- Below avg.
Spring 09- Above avg *(but not actually certain about this one)
Summer 09-Below avg.
Autumn 09-Above avg.
Winter 09/10 -Below avg.
Spring 2010- above avg.
Summer 2010-Below avg.
Autumn 2010-Above avg.
Winter 2010/2011 -Below avg.
Spring 2011- Above avg.
Summer 2011- Below avg.
Autumn 2011-Above avg.
Winter 2011/2012- Supposed to be below avg.
Hardly a coincidence? Each season is below/above avg one after another year on year since winter 08/09:eek: very weird, or just coincidence?Correct me if wrong on any of the seasons.

bb1234567

mike65 wrote: »

So there is a 60% chance of no real sustained cold weather then. Not that I would read anything into such numbers.

Well its encouraging because just a while ago the met were saying a cold winter was unlikely or they werent expecting winter or something ,didnt they?So its good now they think a cold winter is more likely than a mild or avg one! But I personally dont care what the met have to say, just thought some people might be interested!

maquiladora

Don't think anyone else has mentioned this yet.

It's about 170 hours out so kinda FI but still interesting...





Thats violent storm force sustained winds on the southwest coast there. You could have hurricane force gusts with that if that came off.

Of course the track/intensity will change a lot and this could even be gone completely on the next run.

Musicman2000

maquiladora wrote: »

Don't think anyone else has mentioned this yet.

It's about 170 hours out so kinda FI but still interesting...





Thats violent storm force sustained winds on the southwest coast there. You could have hurricane force gusts with that if that came off.

Of course the track/intensity will change a lot and this could even be gone completely on the next run.

The Gfs has a thing of winding up deep low's, the ECMWF has it on a more nw track towards Scotland and not as deep

weathermaiden

bb1234567 wrote: »

Anyone notice this trend..Temps wise.
Winter 08/09- Below avg.
Spring 09- Above avg *(but not actually certain about this one)
Summer 09-Below avg.
Autumn 09-Above avg.
Winter 09/10 -Below avg.
Spring 2010- above avg.
Summer 2010-Below avg.
Autumn 2010-Above avg.
Winter 2010/2011 -Below avg.
Spring 2011- Above avg.
Summer 2011- Below avg.
Autumn 2011-Above avg.
Winter 2011/2012- Supposed to be below avg.
Hardly a coincidence? Each season is below/above avg one after another year on year since winter 08/09:eek: very weird, or just coincidence?Correct me if wrong on any of the seasons.

OOOH bb I like this... we CAN'T break the cycle!! :cool:

Celtic Snow Man

Caff Caff wrote: »

Don't bother... there will be something on youtube soon I'd say. Also, he has been commenting on different sites if you want to do a wee search of Piers Corbyn on Google. He maintains what he says which is what I posted. Trends on metoecief and netweather.tv are somewhat consistent, of late, with his predictions. But... I will say... SAVE YOUR MONEY!! What's wrong with waiting and seeing what happens. His prediction will still be there to criticise or praise so let's see what happens.... booom!!!!

Cheers for getting back. I am new to this page. I loved the snow over the past couple of years and am really hoping for more of the same. Fingers crossed!

Heyes

Musicman2000 wrote: »

The Gfs has a thing of winding up deep low's, the ECMWF has it on a more nw track towards Scotland and not as deep

Are you for real !!!!!!! Hoping for good / calm weather on the 26th

Musicman2000

Heyes wrote: »

Are you for real !!!!!!! Hoping for good / calm weather on the 26th

Yes im for real, think you might want to read the post again:) EMWF has the deep low avoiding us, the GSF hasnt

Heyes

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Yes im for real, think you might want to read the post again:) EMWF has the deep low avoiding us, the GSF hasnt

Excuse my ignorance, but what do you mean by "EMWF has the deep low avoiding us, the GSF hasnt"

Redsunset

He means the Low Pressure passes to our Northwest in the ECM charts which would be a more realistic outcome.

Heyes

redsunset wrote: »

He means the Low Pressure passes to our Northwest in the ECM charts which would be a more realistic outcome.

Okay thanks, so its more play by ear (as per usual) at the moment. This wkend is suppose to be a bit wild though

aquarian_fire

I heard it's meant to be quite cold alright, but it seems to be warm enough at the moment so it might not be as bad as some people were originally predicting. Then again, the weather has surprised us all before.

damino

It would be great to get snow early again this year. Some of the leaves were still on the trees when the snow came first last year like in the first photo taken last year.


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bb1234567

damino wrote: »

It would be great to get snow early again this year. Some of the leaves were still on the trees when the snow came first last year like in the first photo taken last year.


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Really great photos, are you a photographer or something because theyre really good!

Heyes

bb1234567 wrote: »

damino wrote: »

It would be great to get snow early again this year. Some of the leaves were still on the trees when the snow came first last year like in the first photo taken last year.


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Really great photos, are you a photographer or something because theyre really good!

they are fantastic photos !!

mike65

I feel like yelling this VERY LOUDLY - there is no cold weather for as far as can be plausibly ascertained!

TheMilkyPirate

mike65 wrote: »

I feel like yelling this VERY LOUDLY - there is no cold weather for as far as can be plausibly ascertained!

And i feel like yelling this very loudly, WE KNOW

mike65

Some people don't seem to though. It should be a sticky!

thetonynator

mike65 wrote: »

Some people don't seem to though. It should be a sticky!

Don't suggest that! I have to scroll to the bottom of the page just to see the active threads as it is!

Deep Easterly

mike65 wrote: »

I feel like yelling this VERY LOUDLY - there is no cold weather for as far as can be plausibly ascertained!

ECMWF run would agree! Shows average to mild for the next 8 to 10 days:

TheMilkyPirate

mike65 wrote: »

Some people don't seem to though. It should be a sticky!

Please god no more stickies.

mike65

Indeed!

Derfil

Taken from Freezing Ireland facebook page..

Peter O'Donnell's Latest update for winter
Developments so far are generally positive from my perspective, and point to the potential for major cold and snow around mid-January after a few less robust efforts likely in December.
The "cold pole" is definitely over on the Pacific side of the hemisphere at present, but that has its benefits for later cold on your side, since there is a more accommodating region over this way to create significant arctic high pressure. Then what is needed is some mechanism to push that over the pole towards north-central Russia where it can begin to influence Scandinavia. I foresee that being the general outcome over 30-60 days as retrogression begins to develop in December, then height building follows in western North America (right now we have a raging subarctic jet coming in here and it's cold/moist).
So like I said originally, patience -- this winter won't all come and go before New Years, in fact, it might not even start really until after New Years, with one possible exception, I think about one week of December will be wintry and that most likely around 15th to 21st give or take a few days.
So the bottom line remains this -- there seems to be a very good chance for major winter weather to come in January, and if that turns out to be too fast then February has been known to be just as good if not better, but personally I am still thinking January is "the" month.