€25k invested in prize bonds

pbwinner

Winnings on 21st February 2020: €0
Last win 23rd August 2019: €50
Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €2900
2011: €75 x 4 €300
2012: €75 x 6 €450
2013: €50 x 12 €600
2014: €50 x 9 €450
2015: €50 x 5 €250
2016: €50 x 5 €250
2017: €50 x 4 €200
2018: €50 x 2 €100
2019: €50 x 6 €300
2020: €0

FFVII

pbwinner wrote: »

Depends if you win the €1,000,000

What are the odds on that actually?

Hibernicis

Snickers Man wrote: »

So I work that out as a 1.3% annual return over nine years.

Superficially that's correct, but there are a few points to consider:

• The prize fund (rate of return) broadly tracks interest rates. It has deteriorated significantly since 2011. The current interest rate used to calculate the total prize fund is .5% of the total value of Prize Bonds outstanding. (Effective August 2017)
• The prize fund includes the large as well as the small prizes. You chances of winning a large prize are as good as zero and can be discounted when calculating your likely rate of return, therefore your likely return has to be based on the small prizes. This would suggest a probable return in the region of .25% to .3%. The larger your holding the greater the chances of hitting these rates.
• The 2019 return in the example above example is an aberration (a lucky one!). The 2018 return is far closer to what could be expected.
• The interest rate used to calculate the prize fund is out of line with markets at present and could reasonably be expected to fall further.
• Prize Bond prizes are free of DIRT.

So, if you were to try to calculate the likely return on a Prize bond holding of €25,000 over the next 9 years, based on the current prize fund etc, you would probably be looking at an expected return in the region of .25% to .3% pa, so €75pa or €675 in total, give or take.

Snickers Man wrote: »

Would leaving 25k in a savings account not do better than that?

That's a decision you have to make. Bad and all as the prize bond rate appears to be, the majority of deposit rates today are considerably worse. If you can get a deposit rate of 1.5% or greater thats easily attainable and available for large sums with a state guarantee or the equivalent you might let the rest of us know.

Hibernicis

FFVII wrote: »

What are the odds on that actually?

The value of outstanding Prize Bonds is approx €3,500,000,000. Each bond is worth €6.25***. So there are 560,000,000 bonds entered in each draw. There are two €1,000,000 prizes annually.

Working out the chances of winning one of these is easy. Press the zero button on your calculator.

*** I'm ignoring the impact of the higher face value for the older IEP bonds as it is statistically irrelevant. Just like your chances of winning one of the €1,000,000 prizes.

Cape Clear

pbwinner wrote: »

Winnings on 21st February 2020: €0
Last win 23rd August 2019: €50
Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €2900
2011: €75 x 4 €300
2012: €75 x 6 €450
2013: €50 x 12 €600
2014: €50 x 9 €450
2015: €50 x 5 €250
2016: €50 x 5 €250
2017: €50 x 4 €200
2018: €50 x 2 €100
2019: €50 x 6 €300
2020: €0

The most misleading thing here is probably your user name.

Hibernicis

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Too little information. If they have a diversified portfolio with 5% in Prize Bonds, it would be no harm. If they have their life savings in Prize Bonds, it could do with some diversification. You would be better to find out before telling them they are absolutely crazy.

I would echo this and I'm enlarging it for emphasis. One off the best and most succinct posts I've seen addressing this question.

I was only thinking the other day that we were overdue another one of these random posts containing unasked for and totally inappropriate advice. Lets see, in the last 12 months we been recommended gold bullion (direct purchase), ETFs (which you can become an expert in by reading a few books apparently), Tullow Oil (how's that going for you), the S&P. And a few others that I've forgotton. One lad was told to sell his €100,000 Prize Bond holding and stick it in equities, until it was pointed out to the genius giving the advice that it was the deposit for his house and would be needed very shortly.

People have a lot of different reasons for investing in Prize Bonds. To assume that they are all lazy idiots who haven't a clue about rates of return, risk vs reward, diversification etc. is arrogant not to mention downright dangerous. Financial advice should never be given without a comprehensive understanding of a persons needs, circumstances, means, investment experience, attitude to risk etc etc. There are many different asset classes and investment strategies. There is no one size fits all solution. Investment portfolios should always always be tailored to the needs of the individual. Prize Bonds may or may not be appropriate to any individual's portfolio, just like any other asset class or investment product.

Thargor

Thargor wrote: »

First draw with my house deposit fund increased from 60k to 100k, still nothing.

Hopefully buying this year anyway.

€50 this time, every little helps.

tuisginideach

I'm sure Bitcoins were recommended too to us poor eejits who use Prize Bonds. The "fisherman" who hid the codes for his €53m in Bitcoin in his (now dumped) fishing rod - I bet he wishes he had put his money into Prize Bonds instead :D:D:D

tuisginideach

tuisginideach wrote: »

Same as

And 'same as' again :(

tobdom

30k in bonds purchased mid to late Jan, so in for about the last 4 or 5 draws..... €50 won today!
Long may it continue!! (I'm aware it won't, based on this thread)

Taylor365

tobdom wrote: »

30k in bonds purchased mid to late Jan, so in for about the last 4 or 5 draws..... €50 won today!
Long may it continue!! (I'm aware it won't, based on this thread)

Ah, the olde "new bond" winning technique!

dxhound2005

Nothing for me today. Referring to part of the discussion above, the money allocated to €50 prizes gives a return of 0.34%, with average luck. As per my post on Page 376.

Cork Lass

Nothing for us this week

Hibernicis

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Nothing for me today. Referring to part of the discussion above, the money allocated to €50 prizes gives a return of 0.34%, with average luck. As per my post on Page 376.

More than happy to accept that your figure is more accurate. I was working from memory and wanted to err on the side of caution. Thanks

Andrew Flexing

No Joy. I had 4 wins this time last year.

2020
Jan: :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:
Feb: :mad::mad::mad:

pbwinner

Winnings on 28th February 2020: €0
Last win 23rd August 2019: €50
Total winnings on €25k from Feb 2011 to date: €2900
2011: €75 x 4 €300
2012: €75 x 6 €450
2013: €50 x 12 €600
2014: €50 x 9 €450
2015: €50 x 5 €250
2016: €50 x 5 €250
2017: €50 x 4 €200
2018: €50 x 2 €100
2019: €50 x 6 €300
2020: €0

tuisginideach

tuisginideach wrote: »

And 'same as' again :(

And 'same as' again :(:(

tuisginideach

Andrew Flexing wrote: »

No Joy. I had 4 wins this time last year.

2020
Jan: :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:
Feb: :mad::mad::mad:

I had 1 last year in Jan/Feb and 1 this year. :(:(

PB2018

Wins on 28th February 2020: €0
Last win - 3rd January 2020: €50
Weeks since last win: 8
€134k invested in prize bonds since July 2017
Win ratio: 15 wins in 139 weeks (11%)
2017 (Jul-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
2018 (Jan-Dec): 4 x €50 = €200
2019 (Jan-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
2020 (Jan-date): 1 x €50 = €50

Hibernicis

Winnings on 28th February €100 (2x€50)
Last win: 17th January €50
Weeks since last win: 6

2017 (Jul-Dec) - €100k – 7x€50 = €350
2018 (Jan-Dec) - €200k – 12x€50 = €600
2019 (Jan-Dec) - €250k – 20x€50 = €1,000
2020 (Jan-Jan) - €252k - 6x€50 = €300

dxhound2005

€50 for me today from my Big Bunch. And again from the lucky MC930 subset, which I posted about last year. Today's winner is just 6 numbers away from the one in April last year.

Up to date as of Friday 28 February 2020

28 Feb 2020
Prize Bond Number Value of Prize
MC930990 €50

30 Aug 2019
Prize Bond Number Value of Prize
MC930616 €50

28 Jun 2019
Prize Bond Number Value of Prize
MC930566 €50

14 Jun 2019
Prize Bond Number Value of Prize
MC930020 €50

05 Apr 2019
Prize Bond Number Value of Prize
MC930984 €50

Cork Lass

Nothing for us this week

Living Off The Splash

Had a win today but I didn't get a cheque in the post. I always looked forward to getting my win by way of cheque.

Since February, all wins are automatically re-invested unless you want the funds lodged directly in to your bank account.

So, today, I got 8 new Prize Bond in place of my €50 cheque. Not happy. I have enough Prize Bonds and don't need any more.

I hold multiple Prize Bonds going back to the 1970's. Many were bought in different batches and not linked to each other.

I now have to get multiple Prize Payment Option Forms, complete these and send them back.

Honestly, the time has come to start cashing these in as they have been pretty useless over the years with some never winning in 50 years.

So I will be collecting Prize Bond Repayment Forms and sending them in......unfortunately lots of admin involved.

dxhound2005

I have been getting €75's and €50's reinvestments going back to 2007. I record them all on the Prize Bond Tracker on the website.

A few years ago at Christmas I cashed in 40 of the €75's. I edited the Tracker to print them out, and attached that list to the repayment form. I had phoned them to see if that was acceptable. Probably a separate sheet listing the bonds to be cashed would be OK, but contact them first.

Edit: Cash in the Euro bonds and keep the IR£. They have a slightly better chance of winning.

Hibernicis

Living Off The Splash wrote: »

I now have to get multiple Prize Payment Option Forms, complete these and send them back.

What dxhound2005 said. I cashed-in a batch of over 100 certificates (a mix of wins and monthly dd purchases) a couple of years ago. The envelope (registered post) going to PB contained the following (1) One Repayment form (2) 115 certificates (3) a sheet listing the certificates showing the start and end of the number range shown on the cert. The money was in my bank account within a week.

This is actually stated on the Repayment Form "If all bond numbers cannot be accommodated in the spaces above please attach an additional sheet listing the relevant bond numbers."

Hibernicis

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Those of us who reinvest our winnings get two letters. One saying we have won, and the new bond in a separate letter. Over the years I have often got both letters on the same day in the post. Happened today for my win on 24 Jan.

I sent an email to Prize Bonds suggesting that one letter is enough. People who opted for cheque got only one letter. With so many more going to be reinvestments now I think it makes sense.

Looks like you succeeded !! My cert for last Friday's win arrived in this morning's post. No pointless separate letter in sight.

Lets hope the put the admin savings directly into the prize fund

dxhound2005

I got my second one today since the changeover, no separate letter. Up to the AQV208xxx series now.

I wouldn't bother setting up any bonds under €1,000 on a bank account. The worst thing that could happen is that they will win in 10 or 20 years time, and the person will get some new bonds. In the meantime the account could have gone dormant, or the bank might even go out of business.

The main thing is to notify any change of address or bank account. There are millions of Euro in unclaimed prizes / uncashed cheques. Reinvestment doesn't necessarily guard against new bonds not being delivered. But it saves the Prize Bond Company from having to account for uncashed cheques dating back for years in their annual accounts. The prize will always belong to the winner.

tuisginideach

tuisginideach wrote: »

And 'same as' again :(:(

and again and again :(:(:(

PB2018

Wins on 6th March 2020: €0
Last win - 3rd January 2020: €50
Weeks since last win: 9
€134k invested in prize bonds since July 2017
Win ratio: 15 wins in 140 weeks (11%)
2017 (Jul-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
2018 (Jan-Dec): 4 x €50 = €200
2019 (Jan-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
2020 (Jan-date): 1 x €50 = €50

Andrew Flexing

No Joy.

2020
Jan: :mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:
Feb: :mad::mad::mad:
Mar: :mad: