Galway West General Election

johngalway

Odds against Connolly winning the final seat lengthening considerably according to Jim Fahy on RTE just now.

Dog fight between FHE & Kyne.

Am not going to have any finger nails left soon..........

Fine Gaels candidates FHE on 6725 and Sean Kyne on 6651 on the 8th count.

SF candidate to be eliminated next I believe. He got a lot of support from Connemara, Kyne is also a Connemara based councillor.

Keylem

Looks like it'll be a battle between FDH and Sean Kyne for the last seat. Connolly slipping down!

johngalway

Count 9

FHE 6814
Kyne 6735
CC 6573

Keylem

johngalway wrote: »

Count 9

FHE 6814
Kyne 6735
CC 6573

79 votes between top two - very close!

johngalway

Kyne didn't do as well out of that last count as I'd thought. (I presume that was the distribution of SF transfers).

CrowdedHouse

No - Cuiv surplus

johngalway

Ah, thanks CH.

Keylem

It's possible Connolly could benefit greatly from SF transfers!

Adrian009

Keylem wrote: »

It's possible Connolly could benefit greatly from SF transfers!

Maybe, though SF are still transfer-repellent. This election could change that.

ArtSmart

Adrian009 wrote: »

Maybe, though SF are still transfer-repellent. This election could change that.

from a policy viewpoint connolly should do well from SF transfers this time round. certainly more so than Kyne and FHE

Adrian009

ArtSmart wrote: »

from a policy viewpoint connolly should do well from SF transfers this time round. certainly more so than Kyne and FHE

You've got that right. Now that SF have finally began to make a mark down here, it will be very interesting to see how they preform during the next ten years. Because its all up for grabs. They could rise and rise like FF after 1927, or go the way of other minor partys such as the PD's.

Sponge Bob

Adrian009 wrote: »

Maybe, though SF are still transfer-repellent.

Not when they transfer OUT

The only certainty to my mind is that Nolan will be elected this time with a surplus and that Connolly will go past Healy ( certain) and Kyne ( Probable)

Next count will likely send Connolly further ahead as it will be the Nolan surplus. Then Healy Eames is eliminated and we shall see what happens there

Adrian009

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Not when they transfer OUT

The only certainty to my mind is that Nolan will be elected this time with a surplus and that Connolly will go past Healy ( certain) and Kyne ( Probable)

Next count will likely send Connolly further ahead as it will be the Nolan surplus. Then Healy Eames is eliminated and we shall see what happens there

I have a lot of time for Connolly but seems to be against everything. How do you rate Connolly?

Unrealistic

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Not when they transfer OUT

The only certainty to my mind is that Nolan will be elected this time with a surplus and that Connolly will go past Healy ( certain) and Kyne ( Probable)

Next count will likely send Connolly further ahead as it will be the Nolan surplus. Then Healy Eames is eliminated and we shall see what happens there

I can see Nolan getting enough transfers from O'Clochartaigh to get him over the quota but not enough to make distribution of his surplus significant. As I posted in the other thread, I think Kyne (Connemara connection) and Connolly (lefties) will get enough transfers from O'Clochartaigh to put them both ahead of Healy Eames to make her the next to be eliminated. Then it's down to whether or not Healy Eames' transfers follow the party line or the women's vote as to who takes the last seat. My guess is Kyne will shade it over Connolly.

Sponge Bob

Adrian009 wrote: »

I have a lot of time for Connolly but seems to be against everything. How do you rate Connolly?

She whinges and cribs so much I call her the Galway Bawl , not a single constructive utterance or suggestion to be heard.

johngalway

Sponge Bob wrote: »

She whinges and cribs so much I call her the Galway Bawl , not a single constructive utterance or suggestion to be heard.

Ara get off the fence Bob, tell us what ya really think! :pac:

Keylem

Unrealistic wrote: »

I can see Nolan getting enough transfers from O'Clochartaigh to get him over the quota but not enough to make distribution of his surplus significant. As I posted in the other thread, I think Kyne (Connemara connection) and Connolly (lefties) will get enough transfers from O'Clochartaigh to put them both ahead of Healy Eames to make her the next to be eliminated. Then it's down to whether or not Healy Eames' transfers follow the party line or the women's vote as to how takes the last seat. My guess is Kyne will shade it over Connolly.

You may be right, I much prefer Kyne to Healy Eames!

ArtSmart

Tenth Count Galway West

Connolly (Ind) (+1658) 8231
Grealish (NP) (+370 ) 8678
Healy Eames (FG) (+189) 7003
ALSH, Brian FG 7491
7491 KYNE, Seán FG 7059
7059 HEALY EAMES, Fidelma FG 7003

All down to FHE's transfers....

oh, my nails.

Keylem

ArtSmart wrote: »

Tenth Count Galway West

Connolly (Ind) (+1658) 8231
Grealish (NP) (+370 ) 8678
Healy Eames (FG) (+189) 7003
ALSH, Brian FG 7491
7491 KYNE, Seán FG 7059
7059 HEALY EAMES, Fidelma FG 7003

All down to FHE's transfers....

oh, my nails.

Recount granted to FG Fidelma Healy Eames. count adjourned til 6:30pm

CrowdedHouse

Full recount mentioned on twitter

johngalway

Will GW be the last count to finish in the country I wonder.

Keylem

So far, 147 seats have been filled in the 31st Dáil - 65 Fine Gael, 35 Labour, 17 Fianna Fáil, 13 Sinn Féin and 17 Others.

Wicklow is likely to be the last constituency finished, and looks set to return three Fine Gael and one Labour, with either Sinn Féin or an Independent to take the last seat.

Lockstep

Just back from the count.

Ó Cuív and Nolan already in, Walsh and Grealish dead certs to take the next 2 seats.
FHE called a recount, very interesting stuff. Kyne was viewed as a sweeper but has really thrown himself into the running and is likely to take the final seat.
Ó Clochartaigh's transfers put Connolly ahead of the 2 FG candidates.
However, FHE will probably transfer enough to Kyne to put him ahead of Connolly, likely he'll be taking the final Dáil seat.

This looks very interesting.

Unrealistic

Lockstep wrote: »

Walsh and Grealish dead certs to take the next 2 seats.

However, FHE will probably transfer enough to Kyne to put him ahead of Connolly, likely he'll be taking the final Dáil seat.

This looks very interesting.

With Kyne performing so much better than expected, and now being only 432 votes behind Walsh, is it not a possibility that FHE's 7,000 transfers could put Kyne ahead of Walsh?

Lockstep

Unrealistic wrote: »

With Kyne performing so much better than expected, and now being only 432 votes behind Walsh, is it not a possibility that FHE's 7,000 transfers could put Kyne ahead of Walsh?

A fair point. Yes, that's definetely a possibility.

johngalway

I've met Kyne after a public meeting and liked the guy and what he had to say. I must admit, I'm absolutely delighted he's in the running for a seat. I'd heard various things from various people about tactics, but it looks like he's thrown himself at the job and may yet get his reward!

Sponge Bob

Rumours that Fidelma has 3 legal eagles on the way to represent her interests while Pádraig McCormack will be in charge of representing Kynes interests tonight.

This could be a 24 hour recount, like Galway East seems to be

Iwannahurl

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Rumours that Fidelma has 3 legal eagles on the way to represent her interests while Pádraig McCormack will be in charge of representing Kynes interests tonight.

This could be a 24 hour recount, like Galway East seems to be

No need to whinge and crib about vote-counting details when you can hire a lawyer to do it for you?

Sponge Bob

FG are hiring the lawyers :cool: Herself is off home to change the obligatoire power suit to the natty blue number I expect her to besport herself with tonight.

moy83

Iwannahurl wrote: »

No need to whinge and crib about vote-counting details when you can hire a lawyer to do it for you?

Don't think all the lawyers in the world can change the vote now