UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

tinpib

Small stakes all the way for me, backed Lewis for the laugh at 5/1, didn't see value in going for by KO at 6/1.

However one that caught my eye for value is Brian Kelleher at 2.2 on bet365, didn't check odds elsewhere.

He missed weight by a 1lb, and beat Renan Barao 2 fights ago and has plenty of UFC experience. The other guy has very little experience, 6/1 record overall and has lost his only fight in UFC yet is the fav.

I find that fighters are often big fish in small ponds at other organisations and when they get into the UFC they can be hype trains and can be very short and then lose.

thewheel2.0

but1er wrote: »

Lewis by ko. I've wasted a 10er on worse Thing

Yeah I'm on the same bet 6/1 with Bet Victor.

Just don't want to be gutted if DC loses so at least I'll wake up to a few euro tomorrow morning. Definitely not the best gambling strategy :pac:

mailburner

think the treble of cormier eubanks and branch is near bulletproof at odds of 9/10 so went with that

whatever about branch the other two are already in imo

most bookies are 8/11 about the cormier ko with a few going evens
pp a standout 7/5 on that which I can't leave behind

rest of these I think value and have a shot depending on fighter tactics in some cases

adesanya pts 3/1 (Betstars) If brunson fights sensibly I think there's a good chance this goes to pts and if this is the case I think adesanya definitely takes it.

souza pts 11/2 (betstars) a 50/50 match up imo, think this will probably remains standing and with weidman being half those odds to win on pts I can't turn down these odds.

branch ko 4/1 (pp) pts seems the most likely outcome but I do think canonier will be outclassed and the odds on the ko look a bit too big for me.


eubanks ko 6/1 (pp) nearly left this as roxy only been ko'd once in her career and I feel pts looks more likely and the odds suggest this (1/2)
It's still a bit big though imo

have singles done on all with cormier the biggest and eubanks the smallest along with treble/accum (314/1) done on the first four and fourfolds/accum (2204/1) on the five.

I'd be surprised if I couldn't get a couple up and am counting on cormier above all of those.

D.Q

D.Q wrote: »

Just can't see any other outcome other than an exhausted Lewis giving his back to DC and being choked out. Will be putting a good bit on it I think.

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

Derek Brunson is an insane 11/4 with Ladbrokes this weekend. All over that. Adesanya hasn't faced a proper grappler yet like Brunson. Was expecting the betting to be a lot closer than that.

Well that's the last time I bet against that lad. I've never been happier to lose a bet though. What a performance. I haven't been that excited for a newcomer in years.

mailburner

kinda sickened to come away empty handed from last night...hurt a little.

good shout on the sub dq...was sure of the ko myself.
didnt think souza would have been finishing weidman either. souza was 9/2 going into that third round


on to next week

I think the korean zombie will have little problem despatching yair, price is 4/6

I was gonna back him to beat frankie, think it was around 2s

thewheel2.0

I bet on Frevola to beat Lando (I'm biased, but I thought he won 29-28), SkyBet counted the draw as void and refunded my tenner.

Is this common to all bookies, a draw is counted as void? That seems mad to me when they offer a draw as a market, but I wont complain

Mellor

They usually settle as a dead heat, or just void the bet. But only when you can only bet on either fighter. Shouldn't be the case if draw was an option.

smilerf

thewheel2.0 wrote: »

I bet on Frevola to beat Lando (I'm biased, but I thought he won 29-28), SkyBet counted the draw as void and refunded my tenner.

Is this common to all bookies, a draw is counted as void? That seems mad to me when they offer a draw as a market, but I wont complain

ye if it was a single bet they refund but as mine was part of a accum it was voided

weemcd

Ross Pearson in hospital going by his Instagram. Looks like a minor surgery on his nose. Tips the favour towards Joe Duffy even more imo if the fight is still on.

Autecher

weemcd wrote: »

Ross Pearson in hospital going by his Instagram. Looks like a minor surgery on his nose. Tips the favour towards Joe Duffy even more imo if the fight is still on.

Pearson is out, he said he won't be fighting until next year.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

kinda sickened to come away empty handed from last night...hurt a little.

good shout on the sub dq...was sure of the ko myself.
didnt think souza would have been finishing weidman either. souza was 9/2 going into that third round


on to next week

I think the korean zombie will have little problem despatching yair, price is 4/6

I was gonna back him to beat frankie, think it was around 2s

zombie is evens now

Think I have to have a decent bet on that


there's a few that are decent prices here imo, cerrone even though it looks like he might do well to survive three without getting clipped
trizano might be another

mailburner

few euro on these also singles/treble

cerrone pts 6/1
pena pts 7/2
jung sub 7/2

torn between pena sub and jung ko on those

pp

dulux99

Just gone with a small straight Perry/Zombie double for interest. In the past MMA gambling has been my most reliable but I've gone off the boil big time recently.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

zombie is evens now

Think I have to have a decent bet on that


there's a few that are decent prices here imo, cerrone even though it looks like he might do well to survive three without getting clipped
trizano might be another

that hurt

ASOT

For the fact of how bad Cavillos weight in was I'm putting 200e on Botelho by ko/tko/sub@ 15/8. Saver of 100 on decision @ 9/4

weemcd

Anyone fancy a punt on Neil Magny? Big price for a top guy who has caused upsets before, and who carries a height and reach advantage. What am I missing?

ASOT

weemcd wrote: »

Anyone fancy a punt on Neil Magny? Big price for a top guy who has caused upsets before, and who carries a height and reach advantage. What am I missing?

I'd be with you on that one, loves finding a way to win he does.

mailburner

weemcd wrote: »

Anyone fancy a punt on Neil Magny? Big price for a top guy who has caused upsets before, and who carries a height and reach advantage. What am I missing?

It's crazy to think he has a win over gastelum, lombard and condit even if condit was well below par as was hendricks :pac:

I can't see it at all myself and debating on how much I'm gonna put on ponzi which will have to be a mov bet given his price or even a double with lamas.

I think magny will be stopped probably by ko with a sub a possibility also.

If he's still in the fight after 12/15 mins I think he's in with a shout and given ponzi's fight style fighting in front of his home fans he might get a little over zealous early on by trying to take the head of magny early and pay for it late on.
I can't see it myself though.

weemcd

Fair do's lads, good replies. Might have to have a tenner on him. I should have had him vs Condit, but I was too much of a Condit fan to bet against him, even though I was reasonably sure Magny was all wrong for him at that juncture of their respective careers.

tinpib

I see the Hype-Train-Formerly-known-as Francis Ngannou is 2.75 on PP to beat Blaydes. Maybe that Miocic fight did destroy him but I think he could possibly be back to close to what he was and take Blaydes.

Can't believe that price, how the mighty have fallen, he was odds on to beat Miocic early this year for the title.

Early prelims from Beijing at 815am, main card at 11am on BT Sport 2 BTW tomorrow morning.

edit: 11:30am, it's on now.

dulux99

Feels sycophantic even writing this but surely Ortiz to beat Liddell at 1/3 is the greatest 1/3 shot of all time. 8 years since Liddell's last fight and he looks like Grandpa Simpson in the training videos. A complete lump job for me.

mailburner

I think blaydes will take ngannou this time and it'll be takedown after takedown

cant see a whole lot else but the double of blaydes and the reem fight not to go the distance works out around 11/10
I don't know reems opponent though.

KingJamsie

mailburner wrote: »

I think blaydes will take ngannou this time and it'll be takedown after takedown

cant see a whole lot else but the double of blaydes and the reem fight not to go the distance works out around 11/10
I don't know reems opponent though.

I feel like you're having rotten luck lately :eek:

On to the next one!

mailburner

KingJamsie wrote: »

I feel like you're having rotten luck lately :eek:

On to the next one!

I can live with bad luck but the zombie fight took the biscuit :pac:

francis is back, after the lewis fight I just couldn't have him against
a guy on a tear in the hw div, caught him nice and early so we'll never know how it would have panned out had it gone past a round or two.
You look at him yesterday and you wonder how on earth lewis beat him but I guess if ever there was a time to fight francis it was right after the stipe fight.

dulux99

dulux99 wrote: »

Feels sycophantic even writing this but surely Ortiz to beat Liddell at 1/3 is the greatest 1/3 shot of all time. 8 years since Liddell's last fight and he looks like Grandpa Simpson in the training videos. A complete lump job for me.

Phew.

Went to back it again later in the night but he was 2/9. Went to bed and dreamt Tito got beat. A horrible nightmare.

mailburner

back for more pain...

jds beats a guy like tuivasa every day of the week for me and usman will beat rda also (price of 2/5 is absolute muck tho)

double pays almost 13/10

adding in pedro brings it to 7/4 or more....surely there's no danger there against shogun.


bit surprised hunt is the underdog v willis also albeit only a narrow one.

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

back for more pain...

jds beats a guy like tuivasa every day of the week for me and usman will beat rda also (price of 2/5 is absolute muck tho)

double pays almost 13/10

adding in pedro brings it to 7/4 or more....surely there's no danger there against shogun.


bit surprised hunt is the underdog v willis also albeit only a narrow one.

I'm less confident on JDS. He's been alternating between wins and losses since 2012. Mentally, I think that could effect him.
2nd thing is this is only really his 3rd fight abroad & it will be his first time fighting a home fighter with significant atmosphere behind him.
Something happened to rile Tuivasa up at weigh-in... I can see him landing something big early.
Sadly Tuivasa is only 2.75 to win by KO

Usman & Pedro I def agree with

mailburner

means fight not to go the distance was 1.95, seemed a bit big but didn't bet on it

tinpib

In this next fight I think that Horcher is good value at 3.5, I know nothing about either fighter but the other dude only had 4 fights according to Sherdog and is a very heavy favourite.

Maybe he is the second coming, but I posted before that it seems to happen a lot that a guy is strong fav on his UFC debut and finds there is a huge difference in class from where they were fighting before and they end up losing.

edit 6 not 4 fights.