UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

Southdubin6

mailburner wrote: »

agreed

think kron will get it done nice and early myself

I like rivera but it'll be close

I can't call the vick felder fight, heart says felder as I really love the way he handles himself in and out of the cage

Krons grappling is absolutely sick and he is an aggressor I expect a RNC fairly early. I fancy Vick to beat Felder. I think sterling at 6/4 is a great price

mailburner

Southdubin6 wrote: »

Krons grappling is absolutely sick and he is an aggressor I expect a RNC fairly early. I fancy Vick to beat Felder. I think sterling at 6/4 is a great price

the only time recently I recall seeing a fighter so short to win by sub was either maia or oliveira


he's 8/13 to win by sub which is kinda ridiculously bad value given how long he's been out but he still probably gets it done
I don't rate caceres but he's done an awful lot better that I thought he ever would have.
I'm pretty sure after losing his first two ufc fights that I was on here saying it was only a matter of time before he was cut :pac:

Mellor

dulux99 wrote: »

Backing Caceres tonight at 5/2. Kron has only had 4 fights, Caceres has 20 fights in the UFC alone. Kron has also been on the shelf for two years. Obviously his BJJ is insane but Caceres will be too crafty for him imo.

Caceres is going into his 20th UFC fight. But he hasn’t got a winning record in the UFC. 9-9-1. He loses most often by submission. He also has a decent amount of submission wins – this is actually a bad thing.
He plays an aggressive high guard, spamming triangles and armbars. So he catches submission occasionally, but when they shake it off, he’s wide open to being passed – I imagine Kron slips and passes almost 100% of the time.
Obviously the smart game is not to play an aggressive BJJ game vrs Kron and just get back to the feet. But Bruce Leeroy has doing wat is fun rather than what is smart.

Fromvert

Fromvert wrote: »

Someone will KO Kron but I think Caceres is a good match up for him, ok fighter but isn't dangerous enough to get the win. Kron should be able to get it done but I'll be waiting for when he fights someone with enough grappling to stop it going straight to the ground and has good power in his hands.

Didn't back Cain by finish outright but went for a treble of Rivera and Vick to win and Cain by finish or DQ @ 9/2

Fancy Cain to wear Ngannou out before getting the stoppage by TKO, similar to the Stipe fight, with the gap in grappling but Cain being a lot more aggressive with his offence.

Gone at the first. Sterling with an easy win, well done the backers. Jimmy's corner seemed to have really poor instructions, defending a take down 'punch Jimmy, punch', 'he's got nothing for you' etc.

Southdubin6

Knew sterling was too good for Rivera and Kron would win by RNC by round 2

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

ngannou 13/8
jury pts 13/2
singles

jury pts 13/2
luque pts 2/1
kron round one 2/1
ngannou ko 11/4
trebles/acca


fights to go the distance
jury fili
rivera sterling
holtzman lentz
luque barbarena
Kron caceres NOT to go the distance
6.32/1

Good luck

Mixed night but profitable
Luque let down my accum by 6 secs when it looked home and hosed and cost me a treble to rub it in
Jury drops a Dec but getting 13/2 when everyone was less than 2s was a no brainer (misprice no doubt so might not have got paid?)

Ngannou saves the day, 15/8 was too big regardless of outcome which I should have taken the week before

mailburner

How good is peter yan and who has he beat thus far?

I don't see how dodson who's recent losses have been splits to moraes, lineker and ud losses to rivera and mm can be as big as 5/2 for this?

Yan might be that good but the price is too big for me and I've also taken the 11/2 on dodson pts with pp as they are 1.5 pts bigger than the next best.


santos blach probably a toin coss, both around 10/11 and the money has come for blach in the past week
I like santos and have taken that price, hard one to call and he may have to get it done in the first three given how touch blach is.
Have a saver on blach ko at 9/2 as I think if it goes past three he might get a ko against what could be an exhausted santos.


De lima ko 9/4 (skybet)

struve is probably a much better overall fighter and he will sub this guy quite easily IF he even attempts a take down but as ever struve will probably stand and bang and de lima probably has a better chin.
The shape de lima was in during the weigh ins doesn't inspire confidence but he has a bit of power and a lot of ko's on his record.
I could be miles off here but backing against struve is rarely a bad idea.

Southdubin6

mailburner wrote: »

How good is peter yan and who has he beat thus far?

I don't see how dodson who's recent losses have been splits to moraes, lineker and ud losses to rivera and mm can be as big as 5/2 for this?

Yan might be that good but the price is too big for me and I've also taken the 11/2 on dodson pts with pp as they are 1.5 pts bigger than the next best.


santos blach probably a toin coss, both around 10/11 and the money has come for blach in the past week
I like santos and have taken that price, hard one to call and he may have to get it done in the first three given how touch blach is.
Have a saver on blach ko at 9/2 as I think if it goes past three he might get a ko against what could be an exhausted santos.


De lima ko 9/4 (skybet)

struve is probably a much better overall fighter and he will sub this guy quite easily IF he even attempts a take down but as ever struve will probably stand and bang and de lima probably has a better chin.
The shape de lima was in during the weigh ins doesn't inspire confidence but he has a bit of power and a lot of ko's on his record.
I could be miles off here but backing against struve is rarely a bad idea.

Man I watched Yan train for 10 days in person he was at ATT last year for a spell he is a lethal weapon. His wrestling will get him the win if it's a sloppy fight.

ASOT

Southdubin6 wrote: »

Man I watched Yan train for 10 days in person he was at ATT last year for a spell he is a lethal weapon. His wrestling will get him the win if it's a sloppy fight.

He's also been flat out in tiger muay Thai the last few weeks, I'm expecting a big Ko from him!

Southdubin6

ASOT wrote: »

He's also been flat out in tiger muay Thai the last few weeks, I'm expecting a big Ko from him!

Hes a bad man seriously. His striking is dangerous too

mailburner

dodson has never even been stopped though :eek:
Has yan more power than john lineker?


think the bookies have it right though with the yan pts 4/6 and the yan ko at 5/1

ASOT

mailburner wrote: »

dodson has never even been stopped though :eek:
Has yan more power than john lineker?


think the bookies have it right though with the yan pts 4/6 and the yan ko at 5/1

Ah I'm just being speculative due to the training he's been doing the last while. Dodsons crafty and quick but his style doesn't score him much favour with the judges.

Southdubin6

I've backed Yan Ko, Tko or disqualification at 9/2
Blacho to win 20/21 and Charlie ward by KO, TKO or disqualification 5/4

smilerf

I've gone for

Santos
Carmouche
Yan to win by k/o tko or sub

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

How good is peter yan and who has he beat thus far?

I don't see how dodson who's recent losses have been splits to moraes, lineker and ud losses to rivera and mm can be as big as 5/2 for this?

Yan might be that good but the price is too big for me and I've also taken the 11/2 on dodson pts with pp as they are 1.5 pts bigger than the next best.


santos blach probably a toin coss, both around 10/11 and the money has come for blach in the past week
I like santos and have taken that price, hard one to call and he may have to get it done in the first three given how touch blach is.
Have a saver on blach ko at 9/2 as I think if it goes past three he might get a ko against what could be an exhausted santos.


De lima ko 9/4 (skybet)

struve is probably a much better overall fighter and he will sub this guy quite easily IF he even attempts a take down but as ever struve will probably stand and bang and de lima probably has a better chin.
The shape de lima was in during the weigh ins doesn't inspire confidence but he has a bit of power and a lot of ko's on his record.
I could be miles off here but backing against struve is rarely a bad idea.

completely wrong about yan, can recall anyone landing so many strikes on dodson with such ease, great prospect.

Well struve was practically out in the first till he hit the canvas but the minute he got on de lima in the second it was only a matter of time

Santos was my biggest bet, down a few quid but not much

Southdubin6

mailburner wrote: »

completely wrong about yan, can recall anyone landing so many strikes on dodson with such ease, great prospect.

Well struve was practically out in the first till he hit the canvas but the minute he got on de lima in the second it was only a matter of time

Santos was my biggest bet, down a few quid but not much

I knew Yan would swarm Dodson j fancied him to get the finish though

mailburner

Southdubin6 wrote: »

I knew Yan would swarm Dodson j fancied him to get the finish though

To be fair I think he came closer than anyone to getting dodson outa there and I don't recall dodson taking so much damage before.
It looked like he completely took his will by the third round, the bounce was gone out of him
It was funny watching dodson raising his hand though

what a stacked division now though...moraes and yan the best prospects at this stage esp moraes who will be next bantam champ for me


Delighted for struve even though I backed against him, you couldnt not like the guy

Southdubin6

mailburner wrote: »

To be fair I think he came closer than anyone to getting dodson outa there and I don't recall dodson taking so much damage before.
It looked like he completely took his will by the third round, the bounce was gone out of him
It was funny watching dodson raising his hand though

what a stacked division now though...moraes and yan the best prospects at this stage esp moraes who will be next bantam champ for me


Delighted for struve even though I backed against him, you couldnt not like the guy

For sure he hit him with a right hook in Rnd 2 and I thought Dodson was dead after it but he survived. Moraes is a huge talent too. Just great seeing fighters progress from prospect to banker.

Yeah struve is class, seen him fight Volkov in Rotterdam on the end of a bad result but liked him then

mailburner

Johnny walker 8/11 yes please

struggling to see anything past a walker ko in the first here


that price will shorten imo

Megatitan

Can't believe the odds are so kind on Woodley. Can't see him losing. He should be much shorter.

mailburner

diego surely worth a punt at 9/4 hes never been subbed and gall has never won by anything bar a sub

it's surely three rounds standing which makes this a lot more even than the odds imo

pts at 7/2 might be a better shout, hopefully one or two will go to 4s when all have this priced up

ASOT

mailburner wrote: »

diego surely worth a punt at 9/4 hes never been subbed and gall has never won by anything bar a sub

it's surely three rounds standing which makes this a lot more even than the odds imo

pts at 7/2 might be a better shout, hopefully one or two will go to 4s when all have this priced up

Diego is a mad price, think he should be a fav at least. Some interesting bets for the weekend.

Whats everyone think about tonight? I am uncertain what to pick... anything jumping out at anyone?

ASOT

Cody by finish
Walker win
Woodley win
Diego win
15 on 301 back

Diego win
50 on 162.50 back

That's me so far

smilerf

Zabit Cody and walker by k/o or sub
Usman win

19 on gets 600

mailburner

walker win
diego win
usman win


walker rnd one
diego pts
usman pts

Fromvert

Zabit, Cody, Walker and Lawler @ 11/1 for me

tinpib

There are a couple of very appealing big priced bets out there for me tonight. I'm not saying they will come off, just very attractive prices and so am betting for value.


All bets on Bet365 for handiness not best price for me.



Diego Sanchez is a hardened veteran and Micky Gall hasn't beaten much so the 3.0 on Diego.


Alejandro Perez is on a huge winning streak, the 2.7 there


Jeremy Stephens has lost plenty recently but against legends of the sport. Not too familiar with his opponent, could be a another hype train, so I'll take the 3.0 on Jeremy.


Jon Jones is 1.16, but Smith has heart, so the 8.0 for Jones to win by decision is a great price.

vkus6mt3y8zg2q

tinpib wrote: »

There are a couple of very appealing big priced bets out there for me tonight. I'm not saying they will come off, just very attractive prices and so am betting for value.


All bets on Bet365 for handiness not best price for me.



Diego Sanchez is a hardened veteran and Micky Gall hasn't beaten much so the 3.0 on Diego.


Alejandro Perez is on a huge winning streak, the 2.7 there


Jeremy Stephens has lost plenty recently but against legends of the sport. Not too familiar with his opponent, could be a another hype train, so I'll take the 3.0 on Jeremy.


Jon Jones is 1.16, but Smith has heart, so the 8.0 for Jones to win by decision is a great price.

Zabit definitely isn't just hype. He's a future champ in my opinion

ASOT

One more bet

McCarty points in the boxing
Sanchez win
50 double 450 back