UFC/MMA Gambling. **NO AFTER-TIMING**

mailburner

Outside of stipe Blaydes might be the only test left for cormier but by the time he gets a shot cormier will have retired

Porthallian

Anyone else tempted by the 4/1 on the goat in Moncton?

dulux99

Porthallian wrote: »

Anyone else tempted by the 4/1 on the goat in Moncton?

Absolutely not.

mailburner

Porthallian wrote: »

Anyone else tempted by the 4/1 on the goat in Moncton?

I don't like giving money away

5/1 is available also

Porthallian

mailburner wrote: »

I don't like giving money away

5/1 is available also

Yeah seen that somewhere. Bet365 I think but generally 4s.

Small bet from me for interest/bit of craic

dulux99

Porthallian wrote: »

Yeah seen that somewhere. Bet365 I think but generally 4s.

Small bet from me for interest/bit of craic

I honestly wouldn't back him at 10s. He's useless. He's probably the most unathletic smaller weight class fighter there is.

Porthallian

dulux99 wrote: »

I honestly wouldn't back him at 10s. He's useless. He's probably the most unathletic smaller weight class fighter there is.

He has a puncher's chance. I don't disagree but ya just never know.

Plus he has a big Donegal connection so I like to cheer him on.

I have a nice double with him and Black Beast

dulux99

Porthallian wrote: »

He has a puncher's chance. I don't disagree but ya just never know.

Plus he has a big Donegal connection so I like to cheer him on.

I have a nice double with him and Black Beast

What's his donegal connection? I didn't know that.

Porthallian

dulux99 wrote: »

What's his donegal connection? I didn't know that.

He went to St Eunans boys school. Lived in Letterkenny through his teenage years. You can hear some Donegal slang in his accent

mailburner

Porthallian wrote: »

I have a nice double with him and Black Beast

I think he has more chance of winning than the black beast however :pac:

mailburner

johnson/oezdemir double at 1.84

cert in my eyes, big ask for smith moving up to light heavy against
a guy like oez surely?

the other option is johnson villante at around the same odds but whilst villante beats herman all day long imo I just don't have an awful lot of faith in villante who hasn't set the world alight and I thought he would have had little problem beating the likes of alvey.



which one is the riskiest of the two?

I won't be discussing mj as an option

dulux99

mailburner wrote: »

johnson/oezdemir double at 1.84

cert in my eyes, big ask for smith moving up to light heavy against
a guy like oez surely?

the other option is johnson villante at around the same odds but whilst villante beats herman all day long imo I just don't have an awful lot of faith in villante who hasn't set the world alight and I thought he would have had little problem beating the likes of alvey.



which one is the riskiest of the two?

I won't be discussing mj as an option

I think Oezdemir is by far the riskier option there. Smith has looked lethal in his last two and has been at LHW for a while now so will be more used to the weight. Plus with Oezdemir he's coming off a loss, you never know how that might affect some guys.

Mellor

I had a dream I won a big bet, at long odds.
But I can't remember what the bet was.


So let's take a punt on Artem by KO 11-1

mailburner

dulux99 wrote: »

I think Oezdemir is by far the riskier option there. Smith has looked lethal in his last two and has been at LHW for a while now so will be more used to the weight. Plus with Oezdemir he's coming off a loss, you never know how that might affect some guys.

but oez killed jimmy and misha in under a minute
He might take smith lightly though...

Fromvert

Outside of the very best, LHW and HW are trash (and the best HWs are LHWs). Think Smith gets the win as an underdog. Will be taking the 6/4.

I also think Artem is a live dog against Johnson but unsure whether to bet yet.

Porthallian

The Goat is 11/1 to win by KO/TKO.
Can't pass on that for a bit of fun

Porthallian

Also done an accum for interest:

Haqparast By KO, TKO or DQ - 4/9
Calvin Kattar By Decision - 21/20
Stevie Ray - 8/13
Sarah Moras - 11/20
Andre Soukhamthath - 8/15

In around 11s also

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

johnson/oezdemir double at 1.84

cert in my eyes, big ask for smith moving up to light heavy against
a guy like oez surely?

the other option is johnson villante at around the same odds but whilst villante beats herman all day long imo I just don't have an awful lot of faith in villante who hasn't set the world alight and I thought he would have had little problem beating the likes of alvey.



which one is the riskiest of the two?

I won't be discussing mj as an option

did the treble but at least my stake was about a third of my original planned one for the above double
was right about villante, he's too risky to bet on and thats 4 splits in a row now which must be some sort of record or close in the ufc

I looked at the cormier johnson double at odds of 1.35 thinking it was like finding money on the street but you'd want to be putting big money on it.
can't say id have enjoyed watching it especially with artem winning a round :eek:

lewis won't be winning any rounds though

dulux99

I hope this isn't aftertiming but I was after a few jars on Saturday and decided to back Smith on a single, had a decent bet. Went onto my paddy power page just now - I never confirmed the fecking bet and only just realised.

D.Q

DC by sub surely printing money

mailburner

D.Q wrote: »

DC by sub surely printing money

fancy the ko even if sub is nearly twice the price

ko/tko but I think the ref will step in at some stage to save lewis
getting battered

D.Q

mailburner wrote: »

fancy the ko even if sub is nearly twice the price

ko/tko but I think the ref will step in at some stage to save lewis
getting battered

Just can't see any other outcome other than an exhausted Lewis giving his back to DC and being choked out. Will be putting a good bit on it I think.

D.Q

mailburner wrote: »

fancy the ko even if sub is nearly twice the price

ko/tko but I think the ref will step in at some stage to save lewis
getting battered

Just can't see any other outcome other than an exhausted Lewis giving his back to DC and being choked out. Will be putting a good bit on it I think.

KingJamsie

Just for reference

DC KO 1/1
DC Sub 17/10

Lewis KO 6/1

All with Paddy Power

Porthallian

Very little value on the undercard.
Rolling with this:
Sijara Eubanks Decision - 8/13
Montel Jackson - 7/10
Lando Vannata - 1/3
Jason Knight By Submission - 16/5
Karl Roberson - 4/11

Around 20/1

dulux99

Derek Brunson is an insane 11/4 with Ladbrokes this weekend. All over that. Adesanya hasn't faced a proper grappler yet like Brunson. Was expecting the betting to be a lot closer than that.

KingJamsie

dulux99 wrote: »

Derek Brunson is an insane 11/4 with Ladbrokes this weekend. All over that. Adesanya hasn't faced a proper grappler yet like Brunson. Was expecting the betting to be a lot closer than that.

None of Brunson’s victories stand out as impressive wins against top level guys

Adesanya on points for me! (3/1)

dulux99

KingJamsie wrote: »

None of Brunson’s victories stand out as impressive wins against top level guys

Adesanya on points for me! (3/1)

Hmm I dunno, victories over Uriah Hall, Machida, Alvey and Larkin are all quite solid. I know probably none of those were at the peak of their powers at the time but I don't really measure a fighter on the names on their record, in terms of gambling I just think of style vs style, and Brunson is a bad stylistic match up for Adesanya at this point I feel.

Don't get me wrong I can see why Adesanya is a favourite but in terms of a value bet, Brunson at 11/4 on a single is the best value on the card.

callaway92

dulux99 wrote: »

Derek Brunson is an insane 11/4 with Ladbrokes this weekend. All over that. Adesanya hasn't faced a proper grappler yet like Brunson. Was expecting the betting to be a lot closer than that.

Brunson severely overpriced. I have Israel for that fight but wouldn't go near betting on him.

but1er

Lewis by ko. I've wasted a 10er on worse Thing