Prolonged cold spell on the way

nacho libre

We need the eagle back on tv right now.

maquiladora

Heavy Snow Sat 27 Nov

There is a moderate risk of severe weather on Saturday.

There is potential for snow showers over much of the north and east of the UK, with accumulations of 1-5 cm of snow in places, and with as much as 10 cm on hills in northern Britain.

There is a lower risk of snow extending further west over the UK.

Icy stretches may develop on untreated surfaces.

Issued at: 1131 Tue 23 Nov

joe316

Winger_PL wrote: »

That's simple. Kildare may, or may not see snow
Hard to say yet but I think east Kildare has better chances of seeing enough snow for a white cover to form if the streamers get well inland, as opposed to west Kildare where some flurries may show but not enough for a whiteout to happen.

Just down the road from you in Clane so fingers crossed!!

arctictree

Wind has now turned Northerly and the showers look like they are heading straight down the Irish sea. Would be nice to get a couple of dry days before the snow arrives!

rhonin

nacho libre wrote: »

We need the eagle back on tv right now.

I agree! Lets hope he is warming up for a return this week.

maquiladora

UK Outlook for Wednesday 8 Dec 2010 to Wednesday 22 Dec 2010:

The cold conditions are likely to continue. Precipitation amounts should be average or slightly below, giving the risk of sleet and snow at times in many areas. Sunshine amounts are likely to be above average, although some southeastern parts may see more in the way of cloud. Temperatures are likely to continue well below average, with widespread frosts, sometimes severe. There is some chance of it turning less cold, particularly for southern and southwestern parts, but still with the risk of further rain, sleet and snow.

Updated: 1157 on Tue 23 Nov 2010

UKMO still going for cold out to Dec 22 but instead of a small chance of a breakdown they are now calling for "some chance".

davehey79

whats the likelihood of Longford seeing any of this possible snow if things fall right ?

ScallowayLass

Huge change in air temps since this morning here, was quite calm and mild earlier a definite chill in the air but now the wind is starting to rise and it's become quite bitter........

This our local weather forecast coming from Fairisle

http://www.northisles-weather.co.uk/

Su Campu

munsterlegend wrote: »

what did you think of met eireann's outlook this morning? is snow at lower levels now looking likely? you usually did get it right last winter so interested to hear your comments.

There will certainly be snow showers for some, but I'm still not convinced about down to sea-level. I think the best chance will be in Ulster as the GFS has the lowest theta-w values there over the weekend, but as always this has to be taken with a pinch of salt as I expect it's overdoing it slightly. But if we got some slow-moving heavy enough showers, evaporative cooling could make the difference, and could bring (wet?) snow to low levels in a few spots. For me, the 00Z ECMWF doesn't yield snow at all levels.

It all depends on the exact path of this Norwegian low. It's originating in a data-sparse region south of Svalbard, so it will be tricky to get an exact hold on it until it gets further south. If we can get strong enough winds then that will limit low-level modification over the seas, enhancing our chances.

nacho libre

Su Campu wrote: »

There will certainly be snow showers for some, but I'm still not convinced about down to sea-level. I think the best chance will be in Ulster as the GFS has the lowest theta-w values there over the weekend, but as always this has to be taken with a pinch of salt as I expect it's overdoing it slightly. But if we got some slow-moving heavy enough showers, evaporative cooling could make the difference, and could bring (wet?) snow to low levels in a few spots. For me, the 00Z ECMWF doesn't yield snow at all levels.

it could be a stupid question, but when you say sea level, are you strict with that definition? what i mean is there are quite a few places in ireland that are slightly/marginally above sea level? so if snow fall in such places, will you say that you were right about snow not falling at sea level, since these places are techinically above sea level?

Harps

Well theres already sleet today in Letterkenny which isnt far from sea level if thats anything to go by

We should have a decent chance at night at least of getting some snow

Su Campu

nacho libre wrote: »

it could be a stupid question, but when you say sea level, are you strict with that definition? what i mean is there are quite a few places in ireland that are slightly/marginally above sea level? so if snow fall in such places, will you say that you were right about snow not falling at sea level, since these places are techinically above sea level?

Well sea level is sea level, and many places like Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway, Sligo, Waterford are pretty much at 0-50m. But as I said before, the majority of the population lives below 100m, so that's what I mean by low-level snow. Proper snow that get's this place buzzing with pages and pages of excited snow reports. There will of course be people who will get snow where they live, but the question is what will the majority get.

So to answer your question, anyone below 50m.

lucy2010

Su Campu wrote: »

Well sea level is sea level, and many places like Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway, Sligo, Waterford are pretty much at 0-50m. But as I said before, the majority of the population lives below 100m, so that's what I mean by low-level snow. Proper snow that get's this place buzzing with pages and pages of excited snow reports. There will of course be people who will get snow where they live, but the question is what will the majority get.

So to answer your question, anyone below 50m.

Cool

Im 60m asl but right beside the sea lol
We suffer more with the ice & frost as no thaw outside with the low winter sun. Last 2 years we have had more than 2 weeks of ice - car stuck in drive way & virtually impossible to even walk up the drive. Have also had more than our fair share of pastings in the last 2 years ............... But bring it on - Think the country needs something different to moan about

munsterlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

There will certainly be snow showers for some, but I'm still not convinced about down to sea-level. I think the best chance will be in Ulster as the GFS has the lowest theta-w values there over the weekend, but as always this has to be taken with a pinch of salt as I expect it's overdoing it slightly. But if we got some slow-moving heavy enough showers, evaporative cooling could make the difference, and could bring (wet?) snow to low levels in a few spots. For me, the 00Z ECMWF doesn't yield snow at all levels.

It all depends on the exact path of this Norwegian low. It's originating in a data-sparse region south of Svalbard, so it will be tricky to get an exact hold on it until it gets further south. If we can get strong enough winds then that will limit low-level modification over the seas, enhancing our chances.

thanks su -heres hoping for strong winds. listened to the radio one met eirean forecast before lunchtime and interestingly they had nothing past tomorrow in their forecast and they usually go much further.

BEASTERLY

All this talk about streamers on the East coast when the GFS show winds staying straight notherly until sunday, I think we should worry about if we'll get any showers at all, never mind what level they'll turn to snow at.

roryc1

I think what Su is saying should be taken on board; these things have a tendency to be very marginal even in the depths of winter,
We must remember it is only November and I for one would be concerned with factors like sea temp, to close to the coast can be a bad thing too, from a Dublin perspective,
But in saying that northern and eastern mountains look like getting a good dump of snow, I feel the low lying regions are too close to call, but I’m living in hope

ffarrell7

If last winter is anything to go by when we had two weeks of lying snow in West Dublin, Castleknock/Blanchardstown, approx 15-20 cm's, we will have quite a lot this year as well. We also had some heavy snowfall in Dublin in February and March 2010. As usual it is the North, East and North-West that will get the bulk of the snow and ice.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

thanks su -heres hoping for strong winds. listened to the radio one met eirean forecast before lunchtime and interestingly they had nothing past tomorrow in their forecast and they usually go much further.

I think thats reflected in the current Outlook too which usually gives a day by day forecast for the next few days but instead is now a sort of broad advisory about cold conditions arriving.

az2wp0sye65487

Su Campu wrote: »

There will certainly be snow showers for some, but I'm still not convinced about down to sea-level. I think the best chance will be in Ulster as the GFS has the lowest theta-w values there over the weekend, but as always this has to be taken with a pinch of salt as I expect it's overdoing it slightly. But if we got some slow-moving heavy enough showers, evaporative cooling could make the difference, and could bring (wet?) snow to low levels in a few spots. For me, the 00Z ECMWF doesn't yield snow at all levels.

No..... no salt - you'll melt the snow!!!

BEASTERLY

BEASTERLY wrote: »

All this talk about streamers on the East coast when the GFS show winds staying straight notherly until sunday, I think we should worry about if we'll get any showers at all, never mind what level they'll turn to snow at.

You've a few things to learn ,with all due respect about weather models.
GFS is king only within 48hrs with Easterly set ups,it's biased towards southwesterlies or atlantic set ups.

The ECM and the UKMO have much more human input and are much more in tune with what happens here.They both veer winds East

Also where are you getting these northerlies at the weekend from?
Heres the latest GFs for saturday and even it has strong bitter northeasterlies... which are perfect for streamers into wexford...a seapath,a very long one all the way from liverpool!

[Note this is a live image that will change when the 12z rolls out around 4pm toda]

BEASTERLY

Deleted User wrote: »

You've a few things to learn ,with all due respect about weather models.
GFS is king only within 48hrs with Easterly set ups,it's biased towards southwesterlies or atlantic set ups.

The ECM and the UKMO have much more human input and are much more in tune with what happens here.They both veer winds East

Also where are you getting these northerlies at the weekend from?
Heres the latest GFs for saturday and even it has strong bitter northeasterlies... which are perfect for streamers into wexford...a seapath,a very long one all the way from liverpool!

[Note this is a live image that will change when the 12z rolls out around 4pm toda]

One thing to note, winds move from isobar to isobar, towards the centre of a low pressure and away from a high pressure.

That makes that chart show northerly winds.

But I will take on board what you said about relying on models, Dont mind if im saying stuff that makes no sense im only a newbie:pac:

BEASTERLY

BEASTERLY wrote: »

One thing to note, winds move from isobar to isobar, towards the centre of a low pressure and away from a high pressure.

That makes that chart show northerly winds.

But I will take on board what you said about relying on models, Dont mind if im saying stuff that makes no sense im only a newbie:pac:

No they circulate anticlockwise round that low pressure in England meaning Northeasterlies.
As it goes south they become Easterly.

arctictree

BEASTERLY wrote: »

One thing to note, winds move from isobar to isobar, towards the centre of a low pressure and away from a high pressure.

Incorrect. Winds move parallel to isobars anticlockwise around LPs.

maquiladora

Follow the arrows to see the wind direction forecast by the GFS

(Selection UK wind speed/dir streams)

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Worth pointing out that the GFS is only one model and this is still an evolving situation so the predicted wind direction as it stands now can change a lot two or three days down the line.

carlmwan

Su Campu wrote: »

Well sea level is sea level, and many places like Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Galway, Sligo, Waterford are pretty much at 0-50m. But as I said before, the majority of the population lives below 100m, so that's what I mean by low-level snow. Proper snow that get's this place buzzing with pages and pages of excited snow reports. There will of course be people who will get snow where they live, but the question is what will the majority get.

So to answer your question, anyone below 50m.

Do you no what height me is above sea level

WolfeIRE

check this carl
http://www.earthtools.org/

just find your location and it will give you an approx height.

By the way, any chance people could post their height asl and their approx location if possible.

drove me mad last year reading posts 'Snow shower here' etc with no location.

BEASTERLY

Deleted User wrote: »

No they circulate anticlockwise round that low pressure in England meaning Northeasterlies.
As it goes south they become Easterly.

I know the wind moves anticlockwise, they can't move parrallel to isobars, low pressure sucks air in. If winds moved parrallel to the isobars air would never get to the centre of the low creating a vacum and killing anybody underneath. But the angles are slight so i'm not talking perpindicular or anything.
These to charts show it nicely:

ECM and UKMO show an even more notherly flow than the GFS out to Sunday aswell.

Pangea

Harps wrote: »

Well theres already sleet today in Letterkenny which isnt far from sea level if thats anything to go by

We should have a decent chance at night at least of getting some snow

Letterkenny town i.e main street itself is on fairly high ground , not to mention mountain top.

I dont buy into the no snow near sea level stuff too much, I live a few miles from the sea here and get a good bit of snow. Maybe its because the land here in donegal isnt actually at sea level, there is plenty of hills and mountains touching the sea. What I am saying is that living near the sea isnt a disadvantage from what I have experienced.

ffarrell7

Pangea,

I agree with you. Casteknnock in West Dublin is only about 15 kilometres from the sea and the snow was heavy, sustained and on the ground for 15 days last winter, from 31 December 2009 to 14 January 2010 when thaw arrived. :D

BEASTERLY

BEASTERLY wrote: »

ECM and UKMO show an even more notherly flow than the GFS out to Sunday aswell.

The charts you posted are for today...not sunday...
Also have a look at the sea area forecast..

http://www.met.ie/forecasts/sea-area.asp