Prolonged cold spell on the way

Silver-Tiger

Lads is there any forecasters on twitter worth following?

highdef

WolfeIRE wrote: »

North Mayo, West Galway, north clare, west Kerry, Sligo, Donegal, north Roscommon, Leitrim, Ulster, Meath, Louth, Wicklow, Dublin, Kilkenny and Carlow again remain at most risk of seeing any significant snow (predominantly through heavy showers or streamers in the east as opposed to an organised front).

High ground, roughly 250-350ft above sea level, in the counties highlighted in bold are more likely to see snow that lower levels where precip is more likely going to be hail, wet snow or sleety rain.

Sounds good to me - I'm on the north Kildare/South Meath border at about 300ft with a 500ft hill behind my house to my immediate north east and a 450ft hill to my immediate south south-west. IF your forecast goes to plan, I should be in a good spot.....and possibly stuck in the village too as there are hills to encounter to get out of the valley

F-Stop

Oops!

nacho libre

WolfeIRE wrote: »

There has been somewhat of a wobble from the gfs model tonight regarding the longevity of this cold spell.

Other models keep it going into the first week of December but there are tentative signs that the blocking highs over Europe will drift eastwards allowing the Atlantic to re-establish itself bringing milder air and more unsettled weather.
.

it should be noted that while the gfs can ramp, it also has a progressive bias towards milder weather when it comes to blocks. the gfs model in one output can show dream charts, only for the next run to show a breakdown. the ecm tends to handle a blocking setup much better overall. it may be different this time, we'll see.

it's worth mentioning that according to some of the most respected posters over on netweather there are signs that a mid- atlantic high may form to replace the Greenland high, which may help to keep it cold for a bit longer. or it maybe the case the blocking highs do not move east

in any case it is pointless to try and spot the breakdown, it will obviously come at some stage
expectations may have been raised a bit since last year, but 8- 9 days of cold and potentially very wintry weather, at times, is not a usual occurrence for us at any time of year.

Calibos

Sssshhh!! Keep it down about the snow lads!!

Ye'll have Graces7 back again this year, giving out to us in double line spaced mediocre quasi poetry!

Won't someone think of the skipping lamb

In the dark shivering night

In the week to come

Blessed are we

In our suburban Semi-d

but think of the collie in the sprawling snowbound mountain field

gally74

Temps now dropped on accuweather for next week,

Kanoe

I've been sprayed by the road gritter twice on walk home from work this week. that stuff stings

gbee

Calibos wrote: »

Sssshhh!! Keep it down about the snow lads!!

Ye'll have Graces7 back again this year, giving out to us in double line spaced mediocre quasi poetry!

Sure, enough of the lamb digging was her fate

To escape the snows of Donegal she moved her lambs of late

To a place west of Cork were the best snow does fall

But snow is here only a weeks not months so she has a dry hall

maquiladora

Met Eireann outlook :


We are moving into a very cold, wintry spell with an Arctic airmass down over Ireland and Northern Europe. This arctic spell is forecast to last through to the coming weekend and our 10-day model gives no indication of any mild weather before the second of December. So severe night frosts can be expected with sub-zero air minima and falling possibly below -5 on some nights with ground temperatures down to -10 degrees. Freezing fog may also occur. Daytime maxima will be typically around 5 degrees but could be as low as 1 or 2 degrees next week. In general there will be a lot of sunny, clear weather around but some showers of hail, sleet and snow will occur.

WolfeIRE

must say the east, north and northwest will have some fun over the next two weeks.

redsteveireland

It's not like them to commit so far out. They
are freely mentioning the 's' word.
Do you have any updates this morning maq?

munsterlegend

yeah thats a very committed forecast from met eireann. will be interesting to see how widespread the precipitation will be.

danielpaul

will we see snow in killarney like last year it was amazing

DOCARCH

Just saw maquiladora already posted same.

Su Campu

That Sc that I spoke of a few days ago seems to have formed and has kept night time temperatures above zero throughout the country. It will of course put a cap on daytime temperatures, and I'd expect that stronger convection in the coming days will break through any caps and lead to clearer and colder nights

munsterlegend

Su Campu wrote: »

That Sc that I spoke of a few days ago seems to have formed and has kept night time temperatures above zero throughout the country. It will of course put a cap on daytime temperatures, and I'd expect that stronger convection in the coming days will break through any caps and lead to clearer and colder nights

what did you think of met eireann's outlook this morning? is snow at lower levels now looking likely? you usually did get it right last winter so interested to hear your comments.

WolfeIRE

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Either way, at least 10 days of severe night frosts await us. North Mayo, West Galway, north clare, west Kerry, Sligo, Donegal, north Roscommon, Leitrim, Ulster, Meath, Louth, Wicklow, Dublin, Kilkenny and Carlow again remain at most risk of seeing any significant snow (predominantly through heavy showers or streamers in the east as opposed to an organised front).

You forgot wexford
An analysis historically of irish sea streamers will show you many head into wexford.

High ground, roughly 250-350ft above sea level, in the counties highlighted in bold are more likely to see snow that lower levels where precip is more likely going to be hail, wet snow or sleety rain.

The above prediction regarding potential snowfall pertains to Friday and Saturday predominantly.

This is based on the latest runs only. Tomorrow will no doubt paint a different picture.

Thats a safe analysis..but it's ever changing.
The arrival of colder surface air which will advect southwestwards from Scandi is likely to mean dry snow falling on the coast I think.
Thats more likely to be after sunday but I wouldn't rule out before.

Evylyn was in full ramp mode on the 755am radio forecast by the way
She mentioned forecast models out to 10 days that showed no sign of a let up.

maquiladora

I guess the 10 day model Met Eireann are talking about is the ECM.

0Z run at 10 days showing -6 to -10 850 temps over us. :cool:



Of course its very much in FI and the next run could show a complete breakdown by then.

munsterlegend

maquiladora wrote: »

I guess the 10 day model Met Eireann are talking about is the ECM.

0Z run at 10 days showing -6 to -10 850 temps over us. :cool:



Of course its very much in FI and the next run could show a complete breakdown by then.

they must have some confidence if using it in their forecast? without wishing to sound like a certain coleraine (former) member is this likely to be an island snow event or confined to certain areas?

oterra

Yes indeed, Evelyn did have a semi concerned tone about her this morning. She did mention "severe cold" and "snow" in her forecast. She didn't commit to locations, but she did say the wind from the north would play a major role. She spoke of a wind chill factor of -4 during the day coming from northerly winds. Didn't seem to mention north easterly or easterly! Does this rule these wind directions out in general or will the wind vary through these directions?

munsterlegend

munsterlegend wrote: »

they must have some confidence if using it in their forecast? without wishing to sound like a certain coleraine (former) member is this likely to be an island snow event or confined to certain areas?

Into the weekend,it may well be a northern and western event to start with,including west munster but as winds pull more northeasterly it looks like a mainly Eastern precipitation event.
After friday the latest ECM for instance is totally East or North east.
Evelyn was only dealing with specefics to friday.Hence her empasis on North-but that empasis looks short lived.
Expect the emphasis in forecasts to go more Easterly by the weekend.
The northerly element is caused by that shortwave initially before it pulls us into NE and East winds.
That would leave anywhere away from Leinster bone dry but exceptionally cold.

I've said this before and I'll say it again.These things can come back and slap us in the face.A move one way or the other by a shortwave East of the UK could swing the winds any direction locally if it does something different.
By locally I mean on the island of Ireland whilst maintaining the airs original bitter feed source.
Currently all models are trending towards East or NE winds which would bias showers to the Eastern half of the country and that means Leinster and East ulster.
The showers may well be strong enough to blow down as far as Tipperary or Limerick and certainly Laois,Carlow and Kilkenny in a NE feed and in an East feed deep into meath and westmeath.

maquiladora

munsterlegend wrote: »

they must have some confidence if using it in their forecast? without wishing to sound like a certain coleraine (former) member is this likely to be an island snow event or confined to certain areas?

At the moment, if there were to be any snow, it would be in the form of showers that would be roughly restriced to northern and eastern areas. Impossible to say what if anything might happen beyond that IMO.

WolfeIRE

Oterra,

Showery activity really picks up as we head into the weekend.

At this point winds will shift to a ENE direction so Dublin will see some snow showers.

this will help you
http://www.irishweatheronline.com/2010/11/ireland-and-lake-effect-snow.html

joe316

Most importantly, what about Kildare???

maquiladora

redsteveireland wrote: »

It's not like them to commit so far out. They
are freely mentioning the 's' word.
Do you have any updates this morning maq?

Well at this stage snow on high ground in certain areas does look fairly likely. I think it will probably end up being marginal for low level areas most of the time.

joe316

joe316 wrote: »

Most importantly, what about Kildare???

I'd have the tabogons at the ready in Kildare If I were you

maquiladora wrote: »

Well at this stage snow on high ground in certain areas does look fairly likely. I think it will probably end up being marginal for low level areas most of the time.

I think it's trending to less marginal as the weekend progresses but as ever don't count your chickens on anything untill it's sub 96 models we are looking at

Winger_PL

joe316 wrote: »

Most importantly, what about Kildare???

That's simple. Kildare may, or may not see snow
Hard to say yet but I think east Kildare has better chances of seeing enough snow for a white cover to form if the streamers get well inland, as opposed to west Kildare where some flurries may show but not enough for a whiteout to happen.

jambofc

coldest temp's not going to hit us till sunday,any snow before that i will see as a bonus.
+ it is still over 96hrs away and could well keep getting pushed further out as we have seen many times before.

maquiladora

Sunday looking more marginal on the 06Z GFS. 850 temps are 2 milder for most of the country than on the 0Z run.

carlmwan

danielpaul wrote: »

will we see snow in killarney like last year it was amazing

what a picture