Damaging winds Thursday 13:00 onward

Su Campu

Pressure and wind observations for 9pm, showing 39 kts to the northwest of the centre.

Iancar29

Weather Warning

Issued at 10 November 2010 - 12:18
Severe weather warning
Stormy conditions will affect Ireland Thursday afternoon, evening and for much of Thursday night.
Gale force westerly winds will gust between 100 and 120 km/hr generally, but gusts of up to 140 km/hr are expected in exposed parts of Connacht and Ulster. These winds are likely to lead to some cow flying, structural damage and will be accompanied by high seas on Atlantic coasts.Winds will moderate considerably towards dawn on Friday.

Valid cow watch ,1200hrs Thursday 11/11/10 to 0600 hrs
Friday 12/11/10
[Embedded Image Removed]

Pangea

That Map of wind speeds is laughable, way off the mark haha

Tactical

..."we got cows"....

Anyone guess the weather related film?:D

ellieh1

Tactical wrote: »

..."we got cows"....

Anyone guess the weather related film?:D

Twister! LOL

peasant

XCweather wind forecast map for tomorrow 18:00 (based on GSF 12z)
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast



The Isle of Man looks like the place (not) to be

maquiladora

Perhaps a slight downgrade on the 18Z GFS but no major changes.

je55ie

http://www.herald.ie/weather/big-chill-is-over-but-stand-by-for-the-105kph-winds-2414017.html

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Perhaps a slight downgrade on the 18Z GFS but no major changes.

Yep, nothing to worry about, just the usual wobbles that are to be expected. Although it's nicer when they wobble in the other direction!

maquiladora

Rougies wrote: »

Yep, nothing to worry about, just the usual wobbles that are to be expected. Although it's nicer when they wobble in the other direction!

Well the NAE wobbled the other way so its not all bad!

Btw, its worth remembering that while it does look stormy tomorrow, as it stands right now, a storm like this usually happens once every year or two so its not really that uncommon and the hardy folk living on the west coast will have seen their share of storms like, and worse, than this one.

tylercollins

Met Office Uk just updated there weather warnings and still Northern Ireland isn't included...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

maquiladora

tylercollins wrote: »

Met Office Uk just updated there weather warnings and still Northern Ireland isn't included...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

Looks like the new warnings are just for snow/rain/ice and not wind.

leahyl

Rain has started here in Cork - not very windy at the mo but that will change tomorrow i'd say:)

tylercollins

Yeah, I meant to say, since they where updating it, going by everything the experts have said here, you would think they would of put in a weather warning for the winds tomorrow.

delw

tylercollins wrote: »

Met Office Uk just updated there weather warnings and still Northern Ireland isn't included...

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html?day=2

a certain person from coleraine wont be happy

Lumi

maquiladora wrote: »

Btw, its worth remembering that while it does look stormy tomorrow, as it stands right now, a storm like this usually happens once every year or two so its not really that uncommon and the hardy folk living on the west coast will have seen their share of storms like, and worse, than this one.

Spot on! While there should be some spectacular seas tomorrow, a storm like this, though a welcome break from the monotonous weather we've experienced in recent times, is hardly enough to cause more than a few raised eyebrows in these parts

maquiladora

tylercollins wrote: »

Yeah, I meant to say, since they where updating it, going by everything the experts have said here, you would think they would of put in a weather warning for the winds tomorrow.

Maybe they think the strongest gusts will be absorbed by Donegal and the winds further east in NI dont reach their criteria for warnings?

M.T. Cranium

Nothing very different on the 18z GFS (or the 18z GEM which shows the low at 58N 18W 06z 949 mb). Suggestions of a central pressure around 945 mbs but the spacing of the isobars is the big thing to watch and that is very tight across the northern half of Ireland.

Given the duration of the strong winds as well as estimated peak gusts, would have to say there is some potential for damage and people would be well advised to stay off the roads if at all possible.

The south coast would be marginal for damaging wind gusts, I am going to speculate here but peak wind gusts recorded tomorrow afternoon will liikely be in this sort of range:

MALIN HEAD 100 kt
BELMULLET 95 kt
MACE HEAD 84 kt
SHANNON 70 kt
VALENTIA 72 kt
CORK 60 kt
INLAND 55 kt
SOUTHEAST 58 kt
CASEMENT 63 kt
DUBLIN 65 kt
ALDERGROVE 65 kt

When I say "inland" I basically mean any station not listed above that's inland, but some of them seem a bit less exposed than others. Your local situation could be estimated from that list.

There will be very large battering storm waves on the west coast. I hope anyone planning to observe the storm will take all precautions and not expose yourselves to danger from extreme waves.

The situation ranges from very windy with moderate damage potential north to quite windy with limited damage potential south. There again, if you live in a deep river valley running north-south somewhere in northern Ireland, probably won't feel much more than 45 kts peak, but if you're on a hill in the south could see 65 kts. So your exposure is also important as well as the region you're living in.

Every storm has its own irregular features so there will be an element of nowcasting to this, and some of the wind potential will be contained in any squally shower bands that form -- you can anticipate that these might tend to come in through gaps in the topography and quite often north Clare and Galway get hit by these, so would stress that Clare is just about as much at risk of damaging wind gusts as Connacht. Often the max winds in these storms stay in the range of 964 to 976 mbs rather than closer to the storm centre. But given the track I think Malin Head will win the top gust prize.

One other thought, be aware that there will be a secondary wind peak from the front coming through late tonight, so if you notice gusts to say 40 kt then they die off to the 30 kt range, that won't indicate a weakening of the storm, we're expecting that brief weakening of the wind right after the frontal passage and the first part of the clearing trend. Winds will gradually ramp up as the stronger gradient near the low centre approaches. Would predict that the strongest winds will be 3-6 p.m.

largepants

I like dropping into your forum now and then and having a read. Especially during possible extreme weather. I'm in East Cork in an exposed area and the wind is quite strong with driving rain.

Thanks you all of you for all the interesting posts. Love reading them. Unfortunately I'm not knowledgeable enough to add anything of interest to anyone.

Su Campu

Su Campu wrote: »

Pressure and wind observations for 9pm, showing 39 kts to the northwest of the centre.

Buoy 44625 in the above pressure map sure has gone through some pressure fall in the last couple of hours.....

Time....hPa
2100.....964.3
2000.....969.0
1900.....973.5
1800.....976.8

2200,
Belmullet S 25 gust 40kts,
Mace Head S 29 gust 39 kts.

Carmen has arrived.....come on in!

isle of man

peasant wrote: »

XCweather wind forecast map for tomorrow 18:00 (based on GSF 12z)
http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast



The Isle of Man looks like the place (not) to be

:eek::(:rolleyes:

some times words just cant have the same effect.

sunday storm had 85mph recorded gust on a weather station,
so this could brake the 100mph one i reckon

Rougies

maquiladora wrote: »

Well the NAE wobbled the other way so its not all bad!

Btw, its worth remembering that while it does look stormy tomorrow, as it stands right now, a storm like this usually happens once every year or two so its not really that uncommon and the hardy folk living on the west coast will have seen their share of storms like, and worse, than this one.

I agree. Tomorrow's storm is a fairly common event for these islands and is to expected almost every winter. Maybe that's why the UKMO are hesitant to put out a "severe weather" warning for winds. It's gonna be rough alright, but probably not severe/extreme.

Pangea

Seen the bbc weather forecast and the rte, nothing special really, they didnt really talk about tomorrows 'big storm' as it where.

Su Campu

100kts at Malin Head - hmmm, them's fightin' words! I wonder will it be that high, but I'd take your word over anyone's MT! It will be interesting to tot up the figures Friday!

Tactical

A typically wet and breezy evening in West Limerick.

Reports from Glenbeigh, Co. Kerry are that it is a little more windy and equally as wet.

peasant

At the moment the wind in Sligo is about the same as it was during Sunday's "storm" ...tomorrow could get really interesting though

Tactical

I'm off to bed now folks, early start in the morning.

Thanks to all for the updates and forecast details, very interesting as always.

Will be on from tomorrow afternoon and hopefully into the night.

G'nite gang

Robxxx7

Tactical wrote: »

A typically wet and breezy evening in West Limerick.

Reports from Glenbeigh, Co. Kerry are that it is a little more windy and equally as wet.

I'm in that area and can confirm that winds have picked up in the last hour or so along with the rain

Su Campu

Su Campu wrote: »

Buoy 44625 in the above pressure map sure has gone through some pressure fall in the last couple of hours.....

Time....hPa
2100.....964.3
2000.....969.0
1900.....973.5
1800.....976.8

2200,
Belmullet S 25 gust 40kts,
Mace Head S 29 gust 39 kts.

Carmen has arrived.....come on in!

There was a huge jump in pressure at Buoy 44625 at 2200, so the centre has just passed it by. Buoy located at N58.95 W16.73

Time....hPa
2200.....971.9
2100.....964.3
2000.....969.0
1900.....973.5
1800.....976.8

maquiladora

peasant wrote: »

At the moment the wind in Sligo is about the same as it was during Sunday's "storm" ...tomorrow could get really interesting though

Tomorrow afternoons winds could be about twice as strong as whatever you have there now.