2010 Morgan Kelly Article- Ireland is finished

seven-iron

Please people,

Have a positive attitude or at least have your own opinion. Morgan Kelly is likening our future to what econmists in America have been predicting for almost twenty four months now but has not occured. That is, further mass mortgage default, with a further dip in the global recovery or double dip as it is known.

Please see John Brutons piece today as an alternative and more upbeat assessment of our collective prospects.

7i

PeterIanStaker

Bruton is a liar and a con artist just like the rest of them. He's desperately trying to convince people we're not totally f**ked.

seven-iron

Instead of attacking a former ministers' character, can you not have your own opinion grounded on some reasonable basis? Or are you as thick as pigshi

catbear

medicman2009 wrote: »

What I can't understand, is why haven't the people who are in trouble with their mortages formed some sort of national group? As the article rightly pointed out, you can't evict or imprison 200,000 people who default.The banks can be beaten and made listen, so will ye get of yer holes and beat them ffs!

A mix of stigma and one-up-manship. In the last few weeks I've had people laid their cards on the table and I never even knew they were specuvesters. They were once telling me not to talk things down, now they're bitter and getting angry.

PeterIanStaker

seven-iron wrote: »

Or are you as thick as pigshi

You're mistaking cynicism for stupidity.

seven-iron

In fairness, JB's article has some merits and focuses on the positive 'tangibles' that we can all control and help to achieve. Which can help us move on. On the other hand, MK just took the shotgun approach, by saying we have no way out. For a man of his intelligence and standing I am disappointed with his effort. Call me naive but I'd rather that than pure negativity.

fly_agaric

RoverJames wrote: »

What has he done to justify going from 20K to 32K ? What job does he do ? Anyone on 32K a year purely because they have 8 years service doing a job that can be done by most of the folks on the scratch is being paid 12K too much in my view. Folks who reckon that paying admin staff etc 32K/annum in the public sector is an appropriate use of the cash the country is borrowing are out of touch with reality in my view.

edit - offtopic...Probably started in an entry level position & did not get promoted. Didn't leave for some reason. Getting promoted out of the dungeons of the civil (or public) service is quite hard. Sort of like the old story of the camel and the eye of the needle IMO!:D, so they give the fillip of a service increase in pay. Promotion doesn't have very much to do with job performance & achievements, more based on how good a performing seal you are in various tests and interviews than come once in a blue moon and have thousands of people going for them! Being a fantasist and a waffler could be an advantage (for the interview)...

Have a bit of empathy!:)

medicman2009

medicman2009 wrote: »

What I can't understand, is why haven't the people who are in trouble with their mortages formed some sort of national group? As the article rightly pointed out, you can't evict or imprison 200,000 people who default.The banks can be beaten and made listen, so will ye get of yer holes and beat them ffs!

Great idea, sure the banks will just right off the debt then and forget about it, no one else will have to pick up the tab either. Of the 400,000 on the scratch I doubt 200,000 have mortgages by the way.

jkforde

FAX numbers for the Dept of Finance, can we at least vent our fury via fax since we're obviously and proudly lazy, ignorant, X-Factored, docile or drunk to protest....

Office of the Minister: 0035316761951
Office of the Minister of State: 0035316623928 (may fail)
Office of the Secretary General: 0035316785622
NDP / Community Support Evaluation Unit: 0035316045334 (may fail)

(mods, these numbers are openly available here)

jkforde

seven-iron wrote: »

Please people, Have a positive attitude or at least have your own opinion. Morgan Kelly is likening our future to what econmists in America have been predicting for almost twenty four months now but has not occured. That is, further mass mortgage default, with a further dip in the global recovery or double dip as it is known. Please see John Brutons piece today as an alternative and more upbeat assessment of our collective prospects. 7i

it's clear at this pathetic stage....
Morgan Kelly = academic, no overt political bias or vested interest, hasn't been listened to, been right thus far
John Bruton = insider, right-winger, tired of listening to his generation of 'era, it'll be grand' ostriches!, totally wrong so far

now, who are we going to follow or listen to, hmmm?

partyatmygaff

jkforde wrote: »

FAX numbers for the Dept of Finance, can we at least vent our fury via fax since we're obviously and proudly lazy, ignorant, X-Factored, docile or drunk to protest....

Office of the Minister: 0035316761951
Office of the Minister of State: 0035316623928
Office of the Secretary General: 0035316785622
NDP / Community Support Evaluation Unit: 0035316045334

(mods, these numbers are openly available here)

"Venting your fury" by sending a million faxes won't help. All it will do is waste their resources and ultimately taxpayers money.

jkforde

partyatmygaff wrote: »

"waste their resources and ultimately taxpayers money"

:eek: :mad: :rolleyes:

The Waltzing Consumer

jkforde wrote: »

Morgan Kelly = academic, no overt political bias or vested interest, hasn't been listened to, been right thus far

now, who are we going to follow or listen to, hmmm?

"As ordinary people start to realise that this thing is not only happening, it is happening to them, we can see anxiety giving way to the first upwellings of an inchoate rage and despair that will transform Irish politics along the lines of the Tea Party in America. Within five years, both Civil War parties are likely to have been brushed aside by a hard right, anti-Europe, anti-Traveller party that, inconceivable as it now seems, will leave us nostalgic for the, usually, harmless buffoonery of Biffo, Inda, and their chums."

This part I question. I think he may be having a few wild guesses here.

enfant terrible

Dravokivich wrote: »

As it's been done here before and currently going in the United States with Obama.

Well Obama hardly helped things by adding a trillion to the dept.

Rabble Rabble

this bit

If the interest rate on a country’s debt is lower than the sum of its growth rate and inflation rate, the ratio of debt to national income will shrink through time. After a massive credit bubble and with a shaky international economy, our growth prospects for the next decade are poor, and prices are likely to be static or falling. An interest rate beyond 2 per cent is likely to sink us.

is a bit pessimistic. If we did get to grow because of an ECB guarantee the sum of growth and inflation would be higher than 2% over the duration of the loan from the ECB - likely to be, I suppose 30 years.

EDIT: and that of course is the main point of the article.

I fully agree with Kelly on us not honouring the debt of the banks, to hell with them. That bit - the main reason we are dead apparantly - is scare mongering, and wrong.

jkforde

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

this bit



is a bit pessimistic. If we did get to grow because of an ECB guarantee the sum of growth and inflation would be higher than 2% over the duration of the loan from the ECB - likely to be, I suppose 30 years.

EDIT: and that of course is the main point of the article.

I fully agree with Kelly on us not honouring the debt of the banks, to hell with them. That bit - the main reason we are dead apparantly - is scare mongering, and wrong.

But he says: "With the 55 billion repaid, the possibility of resolving the bank crisis by sharing costs with the bondholders is now water under the bridge". So "not honouring the debt of the banks, to hell with them." is a kind of belated 'horse bolted' fantasy.

hal9000

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pTifdoKXoxM

Rabble Rabble

jkforde wrote: »

But he says: "With the 55 billion repaid, the possibility of resolving the bank crisis by sharing costs with the bondholders is now water under the bridge". So "not honouring the debt of the banks, to hell with them." is a kind of belated 'horse bolted' fantasy.

I know, I know. That decision basically means Ireland has socialise the debt of all banks across Europe and the world who lent to Anglo. That, to me, was a treasonous decision.

( why is he the only person who knows this?)

Still I think that 2% inflation and growth long term is on the low side.

charlemont

Its a joke of a country once again, so..
Our time in the "sun " didnt last long..

For such a small nation to F up so badly must be some achievement.

jkforde

Rabble Rabble wrote: »

(why is he the only person who knows this?)

sadly because us 'with it' 'educated' 'most clued in electorate in the western world' are glued to X-Factor and moronically shopping for Chinese ****e. basically, democracy is too damn good for us. I didn't contribute to this and am guiltlessly getting my savings and getting out of here, no fcukin way am I investing in a country that sees investing in its people as a 'capital expense'.

Scram

****ing hell depressing news everywhere you go.

charlemont

charlemont wrote: »

Its a joke of a country once again, so..
Our time in the "sun " didnt last long..

For such a small nation to F up so badly must be some achievement.

I wouldn't feel bad about it! There are much bigger players in the "market" who just used the goodwill of the GFA and Ireland joining the €uro to use Ireland as a springboard to greater profits, while at the sametime playing on the greed of some here.

They did this by lending huge amounts of money to inflate the property bubble and then removing it when things went pearshaped.

As things stand, it's Ireland's turn now, the real question is;

Who's next! There are several countries in the firing line, including the UK & USA. How long before China pulls the rug on the Dollar & the Euro.


Eventually the current monitory system will collapse, it has to, it simply can't support this amount of debt forever!

COYW

jkforde wrote: »

sadly because us 'with it' 'educated' 'most clued in electorate in the western world' are glued to X-Factor and moronically shopping for Chinese ****e. basically, democracy is too damn good for us. I didn't contribute to this and am guiltlessly getting my savings and getting out of here, no fcukin way am I investing in a country that see investing in its people as a 'capital expense'.

The country did lose the run of itself and I am very fearful of some savings tax being brought in. I too lived well within my means for the last 10 years and whilst I did travel the world and enjoy myself, I saved well and now have no personal debt, no loans to pay off and very handsome savings. I am seriously considering packing my bags and moving away. For the record, I didnt buy property. I think that property prices in Dublin are still completely over the top.

ValJester

Deleted User wrote: »

Eventually the current monitory system will collapse, it has to, it simply can't support this amount of debt forever!

http://www.usdebtclock.org/



Jag har bestämt nu är det dags att bli en marxistisk akademisk och arbetet med att sprida ordet att minskningen av kapitalismen är äntligen över oss./Ich habe beschlossen, jetzt ist die Zeit, um eine marxistische Wissenschaft und Arbeit auf die Verbreitung des Wortes, dass der Sturz des Kapitalismus schließlich ist auf uns geworden./I've decided now is the time to become a Marxist academic and work on spreading the word that the fall of capitalism is finally upon us.

fedor.2.

Im going in to the noose selling business, ill have plenty of customers with ye lot. Thank god we dont fight in any wars, we'd be destroyed with the bunch of moaning wimps on this thread. keep reading all the stats and facts lads, then come on here crying and scared, it makes me smile.

Gary4279

I think I might vote for FF in the next election. I'm not trolling, just there all the same. May as well keep the same crowd of gangsters in to avoid the take over of another crowd only to be let down again.

People keep blaming FF and the banks ect... for the **** we are in and I agree, but we are also responsible. Nobody turned and said, wait 'what goes up must come down'. We all jumped all over credit when it was being thrown at us, bought way over priced houses and cars ect...

jkforde

Gary4279 wrote: »

Nobody turned and said, wait 'what goes up must come down'. We all jumped all over credit when it was being thrown at us, bought way over priced houses and cars ect...

nobody? nobody was suggesting or shouting 'wait a minute...'? nobody?

man oh man, we have fatal tendency to have a short memory when we choose to....

jkforde

Amhran Nua wrote: »

With the greatest respect to Morgan Kelly, who is a superb economist, people need to remember that he is just an economist. He has no real understanding of the complex issues around sovereignty and national identity. The short version is, Ireland is a lot more than a bank balance. Yes, its a godawful mess. Yes there is a way out of it. No, there is no easy way out of it. No, we don't hold collective responsibility for the problems, I still remember photos of thousands of Americans holding up signs apologising to the rest of the world for the re-election of Bush. We aren't the only country that has been badly misrepresented by its politicians. Above all else, remember this - The Republic of Ireland is a nation, not a company. So lets knuckle down and get to fixing the problems, and leave the weeping and gnashing of teeth to the press and other professional hysterics.

you're not the General Secretary of the Dept. of Finance are you?! seriously, this kind of woolly pontificating is what walked us zombies into this. not being AH but come on, what facts are you basing your 'knuckle down and get to fixing the problems' optimism on? and we aren't 'badly misrepresented by [our] politicians', they represent us quiet accurately I reckon.

ValJester

ValJester wrote: »

http://www.usdebtclock.org/



I've decided now is the time to become a Marxist academic and work on spreading the word that the fall of capitalism is finally upon us.

Capitalism in it's current form will only survive if they grow a pair and change the financial model before it does completely fails.

Cancelling debts between financlal institutions/governments etc (paid by everyone in interest rates) will go a long way.

Such a move would turn billionaires (on paper) into lowly millionaires without destroying their quality of life, but giving the other 99% of the population relief from the austerity measures.

In a longer term, we (everyone) really need to look at the way we lead our lives, don't borrow - save first for example.

galwayrush

Gary4279 wrote: »

I think I might vote for FF in the next election. I'm not trolling, just there all the same. May as well keep the same crowd of gangsters in to avoid the take over of another crowd only to be let down again.

People keep blaming FF and the banks ect... for the **** we are in and I agree, but we are also responsible. Nobody turned and said, wait 'what goes up must come down'. We all jumped all over credit when it was being thrown at us, bought way over priced houses and cars ect...

People wanted to own their own houses, the prices were inflated through Government policy and developer greed and a banking system that threw fuel on the fire by direction from the Government, so it's wrong to blame everyone who just wanted to join the property ladder. OK some people lost the run of themselves buying multiple properties etc,but the vast majority just wanted their own home and really didn't want to be made redundant and unable to pay for their dream.

The Government are suppost to be in charge, so the buck stops with them. FF have destroyed the country for us and for future generations, while making sure they and their cronies are well insulated from any hardship. Shame on them.