2010 Morgan Kelly Article- Ireland is finished

Arghus

Wheeliebin30 wrote: »

6 out of 7 people who emigrated had a job at the time.

So we both agree that a lot of people left the country!

I'd like to see some evidence to back that 6 in 7 statistic up. You may well be right, of course, but anecdotally it didn't feel that way to me. I'm from the West of Ireland and it sure felt like to me that the split was almost fifty-fifty. I think it's also worth baring in mind that yes, many people may have had jobs when they left, but they were jobs shaped by the prevailing economic climate - not worth sticking around for, oftentimes dead end and not exactly lucrative. Many people who did emigrate, technically did leave jobs behind, but they were jobs they could well afford to leave behind in order to go elsewhere with better opportunities.

I'm not totally buying into this laterday clapping ourselves on the back because economiclly we happen to have moved from from the bottom of the class - You're not insolvent anymore: Well done! Ten years ago we thought we were Kings of The World. Turned out that it was an unsustainable fantasy, built on favourable global economic conditions. Now we feel very pleased with ourselves once again because we're no longer in a recession and are flying it once more, or so they say. But I ain't convinced that a whole pile has changed. Our econony is still bulit on favourable outside factors and remains vunerable to external shocks. Houses are still unaffordable for a lot of people and rent is sky hig. And politically, Fianna Fail look set to be the biggest party once more after the next election, despite how we thought we wouldn't be caught dead doing that again.

Kivaro

A Little Pony wrote: »

This is down to Enda Kenny and his fantastic government and his leadership.

And the soldiers he had guarding the ATM's.

catbear

Arghus wrote: »

And politically, Fianna Fail look set to be the biggest party once more after the next election, despite how we thought we wouldn't be caught dead doing that again.

That's the kicker for me, seeing FF being popular again but don't overlook that they've a rival in SF for the first time and what I saw in the last election the older FF faithful came back but their next generation voted SF.

Owryan

Arghus wrote: »

So we both agree that a lot of people left the country!

I'd like to see some evidence to back that 6 in 7 statistic up.

Don't think it was as much as 6/7 but a ucc study did find that many of those who left were employed when they emigrated.

Yourself isit

Morgan kelly was wrong because he didn't anticipate QE.

However interest rates have yet to rise from near zero.

Ulysses Gaze

catbear wrote: »

That's the kicker for me, seeing FF being popular again but don't overlook that they've a rival in SF for the first time and what I saw in the last election the older FF faithful came back but their next generation voted SF.

Don't worry.

The Soldiers of Bankruptcy may be the largest party and leading Government after the next election, but after 8/10 years of their rule they'll balls up the economy again on another crazy property & Public Service scheme to win votes.

As they always do.

Fratton Fred

There's part of me that can't help thinking the whole recession thing didn't go on long enough.

When you see the way property prices are shooting up, its like the whole thing never happened.

catbear

Ulysses Gaze wrote: »

Don't worry.

The Soldiers of Bankruptcy may be the largest party and leading Government after the next election, but after 8/10 years of their rule they'll balls up the economy again on another crazy property & Public Service scheme to win votes.

As they always do.

Actually in a way there's the upside in that downside. We could plan our return to Ireland to coincide with Fianna Fail tanking the economy and picking up some bargains.

evolving_doors

Lately im finding i have a strong urge to put down decking when there is no logical reason for doing so.
This country is fxxxxxxxxxd ... I'm off to Aldi to buy a couple of thousand tins of beans to sit this out.

Samaris

Mod: I got caught out by the date along with half the rest of the posters in here, so I'm changing the name of this thread to make it a bit more clear that imminent Armageddon isn't! Usually necro'd threads are locked, but given it's a retrospective glance, I'll let it run.

oppenheimer1

A Little Pony wrote: »

This is down to Enda Kenny and his fantastic government and his leadership.

I know you're being sarcastic but it down to government really, they just followed the same policy as before the construction bubble.

The reason things turned around is largely due to a weak euro.

Samaris

I'd be one of those young Irish people that emigrated due to the recession. And yeah, the reason was that a fresh graduate in my field just couldn't get a job here.

unit 1

It quite amazing reading boards and pie the amount of people who still think we should have come through the greatest financial crisis in our history without any consequences for our incomes and standard of living.
The amnesia of the irish electorate in their treatment of fg in particular reflects very badly on them. But of course ff expected this and shockingly the man who was minister of foreign affairs, and in bed, on the night of the bank guarantee is still around.
The british chancellor of the exchequer (who we had to go cap in hand to and beg €7 billion off iirc) found out about it in the papers.
I don't know which is more shocking, how bad the previous ff administrations were, or that the electorate have forgotten how bad they were.

Atoms for Peace

The goblins were awakened!

catbear

unit 1 wrote: »

I don't know which is more shocking, how bad the previous ff administrations were, or that the electorate have forgotten how bad they were.

Gombeen voters know exactly what they're doing, they smell a recovery and want to put in a government that will rape the public purse on their behalf, even if they suffer for it ultimately.

I remember just before I left Ireland in 2011 talking with one such gombeen voter who was swearing he'd never vote FF again and I asked him was he happy when FF the banks were lashing out the money and his eyes suddenly glazed over and he started talking about how much a field of his would go up in value over a weekend without him having to get out of his chair; "that was a great time" he said with genuine longing in his eyes.

He couldn't give a rats arse if another generation had to leave.

76544567

Morgan Kelly should have quit while he was ahead. You don't go repeating the trick or people will cotton on you were just guessing the first time you got it right.
If you leave it after the first guess is write there are plenty of people who will think you are a genius.

thee glitz

SPDUB wrote: »

One question ,who the hell is Morgan Kelly

This lad
http://m.independent.ie/business/irish/anglo/the-prophet-of-doom-but-morgan-has-the-last-laugh-30444494.html

For a mild-mannered academic who shuns the public eye, economist Morgan Kelly has a knack of getting under the skin of his detractors.

He has been ridiculed, dismissed as a loony and his prescient predictions on the property crash were widely credited with provoking former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern's bewilderment in 2007 at why people on the sidelines "cribbing and moaning . . . don't commit suicide . . ."

Anglo was on its way over the cliff but, publicly, the government was still talking about pumping in €1.5bn to keep it going. Morgan Kelly predicted that - based on the €80bn it had lent to developers - Anglo Irish Bank's losses would not be €15bn but could be twice that. The government's €1.5bn investment would "vaporise in months": "For all it will achieve, the money might as well be piled up in St Stephen's Green and incinerated," Mr Kelly wrote.

Over at Anglo's Stephen's Green headquarters, at least some of the remaining executives who had not jumped or been thrown overboard, were outraged.

He had plenty of practice way back in the day, as a lonely, maverick economist heralding the last gasp of the Celtic Tiger. In 2007, he wrote the iconic Irish Times column predicting that house prices would fall by 60pc. He was rubbished in many quarters, most notably by stakeholders in the property market.

Mr Kelly hasn't played up his celebrity economist status. He is an academic who studied at Trinity College and Yale University in the US, was an assistant professor at Cornell University, a lecturer at University College Dublin and is currently professor of economics there.

He doesn't blog or tweet and appeared on television once. He delivers his thoughts on the Irish economy in his academic papers and to the nation generally via the Irish Times. He doesn't usually do interviews either, except to Vanity Fair. He was depicted as one of the heroes in its epic analysis of Ireland's bust by the writer, Michael Lewis [whose books include The Big Short and Moneyball], in 2011.

Tigger

unit 1 wrote: »

It quite amazing reading boards and pie the amount of people who still think we should have come through the greatest financial crisis in our history without any consequences for our incomes and standard of living.
The amnesia of the irish electorate in their treatment of fg in particular reflects very badly on them. But of course ff expected this and shockingly the man who was minister of foreign affairs, and in bed, on the night of the bank guarantee is still around.
The british chancellor of the exchequer (who we had to go cap in hand to and beg €7 billion off iirc) found out about it in the papers.
I don't know which is more shocking, how bad the previous ff administrations were, or that the electorate have forgotten how bad they were.

i love pie

catbear

76544567 wrote: »

Morgan Kelly should have quit while he was ahead. You don't go repeating the trick or people will cotton on you were just guessing the first time you got it right.
If you leave it after the first guess is write there are plenty of people who will think you are a genius.

I owe Morgan Kelly a huge debt because after I read his first piece back in 06 I put off taking out a mortgage. I had read McWilliams Generation game but the Kelly cut straight to the point without waffle. For the next two years I listened to family and friends saying I was mad to continue renting, even after the bank bailout and then once the bust was accepted as conventional wisdom I was told by the same people I had been lucky I didn't buy.

Ulysses Gaze

catbear wrote: »

I owe Morgan Kelly a huge debt because after I read his first piece back in 06 I put off taking out a mortgage. I had read McWilliams Generation game but the Kelly cut straight to the point without waffle. For the next two years I listened to family and friends saying I was mad to continue renting, even after the bank bailout and then once the bust was accepted as conventional wisdom I was told by the same people I had been lucky I didn't buy.

Same here. Listened to both Morgan Kelly and McWilliams. Watched them and their ilk be scoffed at by that scumbag Ahern.

That scoffing reinforced my decision not to buy.

SEPT 23 1989

Just watching rte now

325,0000 for a house in Crumlin people queuing outside the door

It's happening again

May the lord have mercy on their souls

catbear

SEPT 23 1989 wrote: »

Just watching rte now

325,0000 for a house in Crumlin people queuing outside the door

It's happening again

May the lord have mercy on their souls

And if Fianna Fail get in next you know what to expect, debt for everyone in the audience.

Mongfinder General

catbear wrote: »

I owe Morgan Kelly a huge debt because after I read his first piece back in 06 I put off taking out a mortgage. I had read McWilliams Generation game but the Kelly cut straight to the point without waffle. For the next two years I listened to family and friends saying I was mad to continue renting, even after the bank bailout and then once the bust was accepted as conventional wisdom I was told by the same people I had been lucky I didn't buy.

So when did you end up buying a house?

catbear

Mongfinder General wrote: »

So when did you end up buying a house?

Didn't, we just continued saving, opportunity came up in Oz in 2011 and we crabbed it and kept saved loads in the mining boom over there. We're in a good situation in that we could buy for cash now but we've recently committed to a few years in the UK with the possibility of another relocation to mainland europe with my wifes work.

Plus we have free familial homes available to us whenever we're back in Ireland so we're kinda uncommitted for now. I'm not adverse to buying in Ireland but to quote Robert Frost, "knowing how way leads on to way" I can easily imagine our return getting pushed back.

We were serious about committing back in 06, I actually couldn't see myself living anywhere then so we didn't foresee a life abroad but the turbulence of 08/09 made us reconsider our options and for the moment we're just going to keep taking the opportunities as they come.

One thing we're adamant about is that we won't be going near Dublin if we do return. Been there, done that.

76544567

catbear wrote: »

I owe Morgan Kelly a huge debt because after I read his first piece back in 06 I put off taking out a mortgage. I had read McWilliams Generation game but the Kelly cut straight to the point without waffle. For the next two years I listened to family and friends saying I was mad to continue renting, even after the bank bailout and then once the bust was accepted as conventional wisdom I was told by the same people I had been lucky I didn't buy.

A lot of people half way or more through their mortgages since then and on trackers.
Still though they probably would have e been better not buying then but buying in 2011 or so.
But the point I'm making about his predictions are that when he makes more predictions and is wrong he just proves he wasn't the genius everyone hunks he is when he does one and it is right.
I predicted the crash in 2007 too.
But i press Ted it in 2005, 2006 too. And i would have kept predicting it til it happened.
If it happened in 2005 i would have e stopped predicting and been proclaimed a genius
I'm just stopped clock though.

ardinn

Read the op just now and was like - ah shíte - more bad news - Now I have to move to canada!

Then realised its 7 yrs old - Lock it up!!

OldMrBrennan83

This post has been deleted.

elefant

Patww79 wrote: »

If things get good again then all the ones who emigrated should be barred from re-entry for five years so the rest of us can enjoy it properly.

Thanks for sacrificing yourself to save the country for us, Pat.
Keep the champagne on ice, we're coming back for the party!

ChikiChiki

Patww79 wrote: »

If things get good again then all the ones who emigrated should be barred from re-entry for five years so the rest of us can enjoy it properly.

What about the ones who stayed during the recession and emigrated afterwards due to a poxy rental accommodation shortage?

Alf Stewart.

Patww79 wrote: »

This post has been deleted.

FG have effectively initiated such a move by excluding them from the first time buyers grant.

That's a chunk of cash, that goes straight to the developers and builders pocket, funded by the rest of us, sure what could go wrong?

Linked to income tax paid in fairness, so that would exclude a lot of emigrants FG are also keen to try and entice home.

Poorly thought out plan iyam.