2010 Morgan Kelly Article- Ireland is finished

myflipflops

skelliser wrote: »

And here is the billion dollar question.

The guarantee of anglo was a criminal act, committed by a corrupt insidious political organisation, Fianna Fail.

They are solely to blame for this disaster.

Solely to blame??

They are a disgrace of a political organisation but lots of other people have to take their share of the blame.

Mister men

The shocking thing to me is that people are still shocked by articles like this. Irish people are like lemmings. God help us if we ever have a real protest in this country given the uproar over a tin of paint poured on some overweight minister.

DOC09UNAM

Mister men wrote: »

The shocking thing to me is that people are still shocked by articles like this. Irish people are like lemmings. God help us if we ever have a real protest in this country given the uproar over a tin of paint poured on some overweight minister.

I wish we were like lemmings, they got to play with flamethrowers and parachutes

gonedrinking

this is shocking stuff, I'm lost for words

Fratton Fred

benjamin d wrote: »

We're screwed. How can the banks have been allowed to get away with what they did?:mad:

But it's not specifically the banks that caused all this. The money didn't just disappear, it was lent out to greedy people, buying land off greedy people so they could sell crappy, over priced apartments to more greedy people who wanted to rent them out to people who were less able to borrow off the banks.

Someone, somewhere, made a **** load of money out of this and they are the ones who deserve equal amounts of scorn. In addition, there are thousands of people out there who thought it was perfectly normal for a young married couple, each earning average wages, to own three or four properties. it isn't.

Generally speaking, the country got very greedy, gambled a lot of money and lost.

run_Forrest_run

benjamin d wrote: »

We're screwed. How can the banks have been allowed to get away with what they did?:mad:

yes, they all held guns to our heads and made us borrow way too much without letting us think for ourselves about affordability :rolleyes:

But I do agree with you when you say "we're screwed".

BillShorey

The last two posters are correct. It's very easy to point the finger at the Government and the banks and reject any of the responsibility yourself. Everyone who indulged in the whirlwind of economic success that was the Celtic Tiger has their part to play in this.

I, however, am just thankful that I'm a student and will be leaving the country shortly after graduation. There is 0 chance my life is going to be affected by the actions of the older generation, while I didn't get to enjoy the benefits myself.

With regards to strategic default, the laws in the US and Ireland are completely different in this regard and strategic default just can't be the threat here that it was there. The legal liability just does not disappear here, while it does in the US.

kippy

OK,
Financially we are in a relatively bad place - especially considering where we were at (as unsustainable as it was, with the correct steps we could have managed to avoid this particular situation).
However - this will force some very big changes - both in attitude and how we deal with money.
The stabilisation fund will be ploughed into sometime in the first quarter of next year and massive corrections to wages and headcount within government funded bodies will take place. Not necessarily a bad thing. With a bit of luck the Unions will realise the game is up.

We're still not a third world country - a long way from it.
We'll get through the next few years and come out the far side. Ultimately life will go on, albeit in a different manner.

kippy

kippy wrote: »

We're still not a third world country - a long way from it.
We'll get through the next few years and come out the far side. Ultimately live will go on, albeit in a different manner.

Yes, a bit of realisistic optimism would go a long way in the country. Life will indeed go on, and once the budget has come I reckon we'll all be thinking that wasn't too bad. Also folks are forgetting there are an awful lot of people still working and paying their mortgage, having a good standard of living. The entire country is not on the scratch.

twinytwo

At the end of the day the person to blame for this is bertie.. he was the one that let the investors in on the first time house market which eventually brought us to where we are now.

PanchoVilla

BillShorey wrote: »

The last two posters are correct. It's very easy to point the finger at the Government and the banks and reject any of the responsibility yourself. Everyone who indulged in the whirlwind of economic success that was the Celtic Tiger has their part to play in this.

I, however, am just thankful that I'm a student and will be leaving the country shortly after graduation. There is 0 chance my life is going to be affected by the actions of the older generation, while I didn't get to enjoy the benefits myself.

With regards to strategic default, the laws in the US and Ireland are completely different in this regard and strategic default just can't be the threat here that it was there. The legal liability just does not disappear here, while it does in the US.

Good man yerself. Leg it and let someone else pick up the pieces? Not your problem, right? Well, I think it's safe to say people like you won't be missed.

danbohan

RoverJames wrote: »

Yes, a bit of realisistic optimism would go a long way in the country. Life will indeed go on, and once the budget has come I reckon we'll all be thinking that wasn't too bad. Also folks are forgetting there are an awful lot of people still working and paying their mortgage, having a good standard of living. The entire country is not on the scratch.

of course life will go on , what do you think the entire population will go to cliffs of moher and jump ? . yes lots people are working and paying tax which is just as well because every penny of tax they pay will be needed to pay the bank bailouts. so where do we get the rest to provide even services similar to 1980s 90s , borrowing yes, but at our Teutonic masters discretion

of course optimism is needed but their is optimism and blind optimism its time that Irish people realized the shxxt they are in and started doing something to make sure the people that brought them to this position pay a high price , we need to see bankers, politicians ,developers go to jail for a very long time ,surely their is still a crime of treason on the statute books and if what has happened to Ireland is not treasonable i don't know what is

Pookah

PanchoVilla wrote: »

Good man yerself. Leg it and let someone else pick up the pieces? Not your problem, right? Well, I think it's safe to say people like you won't be missed.

He should stay, with no prospect of a job, to help clear up the mess the idiots currently running the country have made?

I hope he makes a decent life for himself, wherever that may be.

BillShorey

PanchoVilla wrote: »

Good man yerself. Leg it and let someone else pick up the pieces? Not your problem, right? Well, I think it's safe to say people like you won't be missed.

No, it's not my problem. Why should it be? What do I owe Ireland to the point that I should stick around and work to pay off the issues that other people created here, when I could prosper in another country? I don't care if I'm not missed by the silly begrudgers who partied away the countries money and is now expecting the next generation to foot the bill. **** them, if that is frank enough for you.

danbohan

BillShorey wrote: »

No, it's not my problem. Why should it be? What do I owe Ireland to the point that I should stick around and work to pay off the issues that other people created here, when I could prosper in another country? I don't care if I'm not missed by the silly begrudgers who partied away the countries money and is now expecting the next generation to foot the bill. **** them, if that is frank enough for you.

goodbye

kippy

Pookah wrote: »

He should stay, with no prospect of a job, to help clear up the mess the idiots currently running the country have made?

I hope he makes a decent life for himself, wherever that may be.

Billshorey doesnt realise that he enjoyed a relatively cheap education (third level especially) as a result of said "boom".

I aint one to argue with someone who said we all have a little bit of blame to take, some obviously moreso than others but to hear a student (I've been there myself and appreciate what the state did to help me get qualified) say that they didnt enjoy the effects of the boom - they were probably lucky to be honest. They got the cheap education and if they managed to stay away from property while travelling the world, should probably in some of the better positions to get work here if and when it does pick up again. Going abroad in the meantime isn't a problem with me either by the way.

myflipflops

PanchoVilla wrote: »

Good man yerself. Leg it and let someone else pick up the pieces? Not your problem, right? Well, I think it's safe to say people like you won't be missed.

How the hell is leaving an issue???

I left, freeing up a job that means one less Irish person is unemployed. Obviously I made the decision to benefit myself but in no way was it bad for the Irish economy. To say that those who left the country are harming it is complete bulls**t.

If i thought my continued presence in Ireland could have a positive effect on the economy then I would return.

How about not judging people so quickly in the future.

johnboy_123

The people to blame for this mess is the current gov and the opposition.

Never have I seen such short sighted blinkered approach to trying to solve the debt problem

6 billion this year with the pensions not being touched and the C.P.A meaning that 70% of spending on the wages of the P.S cannot be touched...I just dont get it and either does anyone looking in...I mean how can the Unions be allowed meet with Olly Rehn the top IMF/EU guy.. Why is this non elected, self serving, special interest group allowed to meet with him. They are going to scare the sh1t out of him with the no we will not accept cuts...

Guys I dare say it but I think xmas may be cancelled this year... I dont know about anyone else but personally I have been feeling the pinch since the last budget and it is only going to get worse...

Good luck to all

orourkeda

we are so incredibly bolloxed it's unbelievable.

orourkeda

johnboy_123 wrote: »

The people to blame for this mess is the current gov and the opposition.

Never have I seen such short sighted blinkered approach to trying to solve the debt problem

6 billion this year with the pensions not being touched and the C.P.A meaning that 70% of spending on the wages of the P.S cannot be touched...I just dont get it and either does anyone looking in...I mean how can the Unions be allowed meet with Olly Rehn the top IMF/EU guy.. Why is this non elected, self serving, special interest group allowed to meet with him. They are going to scare the sh1t out of him with the no we will not accept cuts...

Guys I dare say it but I think xmas may be cancelled this year... I dont know about anyone else but personally I have been feeling the pinch since the last budget and it is only going to get worse...

Good luck to all

But by the same logic that you use perhaps we should be asking similar questions about Olli Rehn. If the stories are to be believed then perhaps we should be equally worried about his appearance.

McNulty737

An article that long without mention of the biggest elephant in the room ie. public sector pay and pensions? So much for balanced journalism.

Morgan Kelly is Professor of Economics at University College Dublin

Ah, that would explain it then. I wonder how much his salary and pension compares to his counterparts in the UK/Europe.

BillShorey

kippy wrote: »

Billshorey doesnt realise that he enjoyed a relatively cheap education (third level especially) as a result of said "boom".

I aint one to argue with someone who said we all have a little bit of blame to take, some obviously moreso than others but to hear a student (I've been there myself and appreciate what the state did to help me get qualified) say that they didnt enjoy the effects of the boom - they were probably lucky to be honest. They got the cheap education and if they managed to stay away from property while travelling the world, should probably in some of the better positions to get work here if and when it does pick up again. Going abroad in the meantime isn't a problem with me either by the way.

Not really. My education up to third level was all private so I certainly didn't enjoy a cheap education. Now, in third level, I'm paying €1,500 in fees per year which is looking to rise to between €2,500 and €3,000 next year. Considering how "valued" and "lucky" we are expected to feel for having such amazing education available to us here, apparently, you'd swear you'd see more of our colleges in the top 100 in the world. But they're not. Off-hand I think 2 are(?).

I could go to most other European countries and pay €1,500 for a year's education in a top 100 university. See, for example, the University of Rotterdam. Our education is only cheap when compared to the USA and Australia, the latter of which have a government loan scheme in place to afford everyone the chance to go and then pay it off painlessly later on.

I don't consider myself lucky to be paying out the equivilent of what others abroad are paying every year, yet getting a far lower quality education for the money.

grizzly

PanchoVilla wrote: »

Good man yerself. Leg it and let someone else pick up the pieces? Not your problem, right? Well, I think it's safe to say people like you won't be missed.

I don't understand, how could somebody sitting about on the dole be picking up the pieces? Surely it could only help bring down the social welfare costs and add money to the economy years later when he hopefully returns with some money in his pocket.

bnt

At least this article clears up something that's been bugging me a bit - though I might wish it hadn't. Many stories coming out of the USA have described how the bursting of the housing bubble has affected individual home owners, while here in Ireland the stories have all been about the banks. If Kelly is right, the stuff that happened in the USA is going to happen here too - it just hasn't really started yet.

Where the first round of the banking crisis centred on a few dozen large developers, the next round will involve hundreds of thousands of families with mortgages. Between negotiated repayment reductions and defaults, at least 100,000 mortgages (one in eight) are already under water, and things have barely started.
Banks have been relying on two dams to block the torrent of defaults – house prices and social stigma – but both have started to crumble alarmingly.
People are going to extraordinary lengths – not paying other bills and borrowing heavily from their parents – to meet mortgage repayments, both out of fear of losing their homes and to avoid the stigma of admitting that they are broke. In a society like ours, where a person’s moral worth is judged – by themselves as much as by others – by the car they drive and the house they own, the idea of admitting that you cannot afford your mortgage is unspeakably shameful.
That will change.

quad_red

The Government's own four year plan is predicated on 100,000 people emigrating a year, is it not?

scientific1982

**** it lets just get drunk.

Nijmegen

We were finished a while back now. Our entire state is built on money backstopped by the ECB these days, IE other European nations.

Eventually they'll have to let us die. They just need to find the best way to do it without killing Spain, Portugal or Italy.

BillShorey

BillShorey wrote: »

Not really. My education up to third level was all private

Suits you sir :rolleyes:

Wagon

Is this right?

• The banks were bailed out at a cost of 29 - 34 billion euro. This will be paid off over the next few years.
  
• But what failed to register was the likelihood of mortgage defaults, massive loans taken out during the boom. These will double our debt beyond the initial bailout.
  
• The ECB will be dubious about helping us out because as we are a small population (4.5 million) we are far too expensive for such a small economy.
  
• If they do, anything above a 2% interest rate will be unsustainable because again, the economy doesn't generate enough cash to meet the extra payments. Greece were bailed out at a 5% interest rate, which unfortunately, is pretty impossible for us to maintain.
  
• It also didn't help that we (apparently) lectured other countries on how to be rich. Not normal people of course, only some of the wealthy and the ones in power. Who in turn have painted us all about to be overly rich and extravagant and, despite the downturn, want this wealth to continue.
  
• So the ECB will look at places like Italy, which is the 8th largest economy in the world, and Spain, who are far more valuable due to being connected with European landmass and have more exports, will be able to afford any realistic interest rates proposed.
  
• And as the ECB isn't a bottomless pit, it will have to choose who to help because it can't hand out money to whoever needs it. Given our reputation, our size and our level of debt, they are essentially guaranteed to look at us and say "bollocks, what's the point? let them go under and use the place as a lesson to other nations on controlling spending."
  
• So the possible solution for Europe would be to boot us out and see where things go from there. Cue a political upheaval replaced with extreme right or left wing parties. Something which tends to happen in these types of situations, such as it did in Germany in the 20's and 30's, after hyperinflation.

Worst thing of all was this could have been avoided if Anglo was left to die. Let Sean Fitzpatrick sort out his own problems along with the developers but once you share a tent with Fianna Fail at the Galway races, you pretty much run the country along with them.

Bye Ireland. It's been emotional

MrMatisse

maybe we can sell off bits of the country on ebay and start again somewhere warmer.