Trading tips/strategies

Padjoe

Neil3030 wrote: »

Thanks Padjoe. I still reckon there's value ther[HTML][/HTML]e to get involved with those two trades at 7.2 and 80.0. Particularly the latter, if Pool are given funds to get some players in come January.

Discipline is indeed key though. For example when I'm trading the under/over market, my formula is to 2 low scoring teams, get in at nil-all, trade out as soon as I've a 20-40% profit (depending on how the game is going) and also trade out as soon as a goal is scored and take the loss. Keeps the burn minimal.

What markets do you trade?

I'll trade any market were there seems to be good oppurtunity. Made an absolute blunder at the weekend and instead of hitting the back button I hit the lay button and put out a silly price for taylor to win the darts grand slam. It was of course immediatly taken by some lucky punter. Spent the rest of the weekend correcting the mistake and almost have my bankroll back to normal. Never doing this again from my mobile!!!

My advice for anyone looking to get into this is to start off with small stakes to get the hang of it all and then go large.

I see liverpool have drifted back out to 150/1

L'prof

Neil3030 wrote: »

You could do this, in fact that would be a sensible strategy as it shows discipline (i.e., I'll back now, ask for a lay of 40% profit and then just leave well alone).

However this is not possibly on some markets. Betfair, for example, will sometimes (if not always) cancel all unmatched bets when a market goes in-play.

You should be o.k. to do this with season long bets like winner/relegation markets though.

Can't you edit your unmatched bets to stay open at in-play? During the season should be fine though, as you said.

Neil3030

Everton currently trading at 1000 for the title, sitting 13th in the League.

Their next four games will see them play West Brom, Sunderland and Wigan. The other of these matches will see them play Chelsea.

I can see them picking up some points from these fixtures and moving up the table, at which point the odds on them taking the title will shorten.

Neil3030

L'prof wrote: »

Can't you edit your unmatched bets to stay open at in-play? During the season should be fine though, as you said.

You can, but not an all markets. Correct score markets, for example, don't permit this.

Neil3030

Padjoe wrote: »

I see liverpool have drifted back out to 150/1

Yeah, they had actually traded as high as 160.0 after the Stoke loss, but have come back to about 130 - 140 now.

They've a nice run of games coming up though:

West Ham (H)
Tottenham (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Newcastle (A)
Fulham (H)
Blackpool (A)
Wolverhampton (H)
Bolton (H)
Blackburn (A)

Maybe after the Newcastle game would be a nice time to get involved.

AIR-AUSSIE

digme wrote: »

How can you access this feature on the betfair website? Or is it something else?

Neil3030

AIR-AUSSIE wrote: »

How can you access this feature on the betfair website? Or is it something else?

Click the little chart icon on any market

Looks like this ->

AIR-AUSSIE

is this still possible on Betfair.

Minimum Bet

I would like to play around with some bets with small money first. Couldn't get it to work when I tried it. Have they stopped it.

ValueSeeker

Over/ under trading strategy (Please note that like a lot of the best trading strategies, you need to be selective and be able to read games and probabilities very well)

Very important: Go against the trend. IE: To find the best value, you need to spot matches that in reality are going against the pre match opinion reflected by the odds. In other words, for this strategy, find matches with dour first halves that were odds on to be over 2.5 prematch.

I will use an initial £100 stake in this example to keep it simple.

1. Wait until half time and lay the over 1.5 (if 0-0) or lay over 2.5 (if 1-0 either way). More than 1 goal and it quite obviously isn't a game that falls into the 'dour' category. Odds will be around 1.8 (liability = £80)

2. At around the 63 minute mark if the game remains the same score, back the over 2.5 with enough just to cover your £80 liability. Odds will be approx 4.0.

3. If there is a goal in this time, you implement the exit strategy(NB). If no more goals are scored until about minute 73 (depends on the game for exact minute), odds will have returned to 1.8 and you now back this for £100 to break you even.

The only matches you will lose your stake in are matches that have 2 goals from minute 46-73(approx) and if you are reading the game correctly, this should only happen less than 20% of the time.

Over many matches, your wins will far outwiegh your losses assuming you know your stuff.

Neil3030

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Over/ under trading strategy (Please note that like a lot of the best trading strategies, you need to be selective and be able to read games and probabilities very well)

Very important: Go against the trend. IE: To find the best value, you need to spot matches that in reality are going against the pre match opinion reflected by the odds. In other words, for this strategy, find matches with dour first halves that were odds on to be over 2.5 prematch.

I will use an initial £100 stake in this example to keep it simple.

1. Wait until half time and lay the over 1.5 (if 0-0) or lay over 2.5 (if 1-0 either way). More than 1 goal and it quite obviously isn't a game that falls into the 'dour' category. Odds will be around 1.8 (liability = £80)

2. At around the 63 minute mark if the game remains the same score, back the over 2.5 with enough just to cover your £80 liability. Odds will be approx 4.0.

3. If there is a goal in this time, you implement the exit strategy(NB). If no more goals are scored until about minute 73 (depends on the game for exact minute), odds will have returned to 1.8 and you now back this for £100 to break you even.

The only matches you will lose your stake in are matches that have 2 goals from minute 46-73(approx) and if you are reading the game correctly, this should only happen less than 20% of the time.

Over many matches, your wins will far outwiegh your losses assuming you know your stuff.

Thanks for sharing this strategy.

Just a couple of questions - when you say "the odds will have returned to 1.8", which odds are you referring to?

And also, if your initial bet was in the 1.5 market, do yo ustill cover your bet in the 2.5 market, or what way does that work? I presume it's 1.5 for the 1.5 market, 2.5 for the 2.5?

jive

blackpool to be relegated....

their next 6 games are ; united(h), stoke(a), spurs(h), liverpool(h), sunderland (a) and city (a)

after these games i assume that theyre price to be relegated will shorten and i could trade out for a profit? does anyone have any advice on this? i have around ~ €300 to invest if it is worth it.

i'm new to betfair (just opened an account) so all advice is welcome :P

oddo

blackpool will stay up.;)

jive

oddo wrote: »

blackpool will stay up.;)

thats not the point :P the point is i dont see them getting much from these games and they will drift down the table and their price will shorten

Neil3030

jive wrote: »

blackpool to be relegated....

their next 6 games are ; united(h), stoke(a), spurs(h), liverpool(h), sunderland (a) and city (a)

after these games i assume that theyre price to be relegated will shorten and i could trade out for a profit? does anyone have any advice on this? i have around ~ €300 to invest if it is worth it.

i'm new to betfair (just opened an account) so all advice is welcome :P

Yeah that seems like a pretty decent spot. That is a horrendous run of games which I can scarcely see them getting more than 2-3 points from.

Problem is their current price of 1.97 may not come down all that much, but even if it moves to 1.6, you've secured a 23% profit.

8-10

Bordeaux to win in France is 12.0 on Betfair right now, trade opportunity? They're in 6th position but only 2points off the top because the league has been so tight thus far.

Unbeaten in last 5 games and next is Saint-Étienne (a), Stade Rennes (h), Sochaux (a), Lens (h) before a big game v Marseille.

Consider Lyon are below them in the league and are 4.3 to win, I think 12 is long for a team that won the league 2 years ago.

Neil3030

8-10 wrote: »

Bordeaux to win in France is 12.0 on Betfair right now, trade opportunity? They're in 6th position but only 2points off the top because the league has been so tight thus far.

Unbeaten in last 5 games and next is Saint-Étienne (a), Stade Rennes (h), Sochaux (a), Lens (h) before a big game v Marseille.

Consider Lyon are below them in the league and are 4.3 to win, I think 12 is long for a team that won the league 2 years ago.

I may get invovled there, nice spot.

I'm starting to like the looks of laying Chelsea for the title, then backing back in 4 games time. They don't seem at the races at all and have Everton (H), Tottenham (A), Man Utd (H) and Arsenal (A) in their next 4 games.

I reckon that price (currently 2.6) could drift a bit. Even if it goes to 3.0 - 3.5 there's a 15%-35% profit to be made.

AIR-AUSSIE

Neil3030 wrote: »

I do indeed sir: http://www.arbcruncher.com/index.asp You need to select "Back/Lay" from the drop down menu in the top right corner of the calculator (It's set to multiback as default).

The arithmetic is basically:

Back Price / Lay price * Back Stake = Lay Stake.

You're right the liquidity is pants, but you should get a few hundred invested in and around the 15-18 mark. The good thing about betfair is that it replenishes your account with all your stakes once you "lay out" for a profit. So even though you won't get your profit until the market closes, you can reinvest your bankroll in the meantime.

Can Anyone confirm the calculation this calculator uses? I'd like to set-up my own spreadsheet.

Neil3030

AIR-AUSSIE wrote: »

Can Anyone confirm the calculation this calculator uses? I'd like to set-up my own spreadsheet.

The formula I use is to calculate the right price to lay at is:

a/b*c = d.

Where a = initial back price
where b = new lay price
where c = initial back stake
where d = profit maximising lay stake

Neil3030

O.K. guys, so as not to be one of those douches that only talks about his winnings, let's update where my season bets are, even though some haven't gone the way that I was expecting:

Liverpool: Now 210 for the title: (Backed @ 160 - 31% loss)

Everton: Still no movement from 1000 for the title and no lay option yet. (Potential for 100% loss unless this changes) In hindsight, I may have been better backing them for a top 10 finish.

West Brom: 10 to be relegated (Backed @ 9 - 11% loss)

Bolton: 55 to be relegated (Backed @ 17 - 69% loss)

Bordeaux: 21 for the title (Backed @ 12 - 75% loss)

Man Utd: 2.34 for the title: (Backed @ 3 - 28% profit)

Chelsea: 3.05 for the title: (Layed @ 2.62 - 16% profit)

johnny_cash

Hi guys can somebody please explain to me how this works where i could make a profit if the team or player don't win the tournament? i have only bet and layed on betfair to get a free bet if you know what i mean.I think phil taylor will be great for this trading he is available at 6/5 and i think will only get shorter as the tournament goes on.

Neil3030

johnny_cash wrote: »

Hi guys can somebody please explain to me how this works where i could make a profit if the team or player don't win the tournament? i have only bet and layed on betfair to get a free bet if you know what i mean.I think phil taylor will be great for this trading he is available at 6/5 and i think will only get shorter as the tournament goes on.

Back Phil Taylor.

When(if) the odds drop, lay Phil Taylor.

Use this calculator to decide how much - set it to back/lay.

johnny_cash

Neil3030 wrote: »

Back Phil Taylor.

When(if) the odds drop, lay Phil Taylor.

Use this calculator to decide how much - set it to back/lay.

Thanks for that neil now i understand i'm going to back taylor now i think he will come out on the 27th trying to prove he ain't finished yet and will average 100+ and the bookies will make him 1/3 favourite i hope i'm right now

Neil3030

I'm going to close my lay on Chelsea. Laid them back on the 2nd December for 2.62. After their loss last night and Spurs' win today their odds have lengthened to 5.3, that's good enough for me. They've Bolton and Villa next which I suspect could see them back to winning ways. Either way, I'm happy with a 102% profit.

As for my other open bets:

United for the title: I'm going to leave that bet open for another couple of games. Backed them at 3.0 on the 2nd December. Their odds are currently 2.08 (44% profit) but I am hoping this will improve even further for me after the West Brom and Stoke games.

West Brom: 5.5 to be relegated (Backed @ 9 - 63% profit). Going to leave this open for another few games as they seem to be in a bit of a rut.

Bordeaux: Still 21 for the title (Backed @ 12 - 42% loss).

Liverpool: Now 300 for the title: (Backed @ 160 - 46% loss). Hoping they put some manner of a run together in the new year, such that I can recoup some of the loss.

Bolton: 70 to be relegated (Backed @ 17 - 76% loss). Hopefully a loss to Chelsea and a few departing players in January will see them fall back a bit.

Everton: Still no movement from 1000 for the title and no lay option yet. Potential for 100% loss unless this changes.

All in all: Down 55%, hopefully not for long

BK92

LTD works best when you've two teams evenly priced who are both unlikely to score in the first half, but likely to get a goal in the second half.

Tried this yesterday in the glamourous Belgian Jupiler League between Lierse and Westerlo, where Lierse were 2.88 to win, the draw was 3.20 and an away win was 2.40.

Backed 0-0 @ 12.0 as insurance before the game and layed the draw @ 3.55.

Despite picking 2 very evenly matched teams there still are problems with this version of the classic LTD strategy :

In theory if no goals are scored in the first half and then a goal is scored in the second half the draw odds should rise sharply. Obviously the later a team takes the lead the more likely it is that they will end up holding on.

However, because it is 0-0 at half time the odds for the draw will usually down to between 2,60 - 2,80. If there is a goal after this then the jump in odds will not cover the 0-0 insurance bet (if you have placed one and it depends whether you have covered your liability on the 0-0 draw fully or not). This coupled with the fact that the LTD is so common now that the odds don't rise that sharply after a goal has been scored anyway.

In this match the score was 0-0 @ HT. Lierse went up 1-0 in the 2nd half but the draw odds only went from 2,64 to 4,10 :mad:. You really need one team to go 2-0 up to make a decent profit.

What you could do is like take a loss on the draw by trading out of it and then waiting for the 0-0 price to drop enough to make a profit before laying it off if you chose to have a 0-0 insurance bet.

This strategy sounded like a licence to print money at the start .. but it isn't half as good as it sounds :rolleyes:

AlphaMale 3OO

BK92 wrote: »

Tried this yesterday in the glamourous Belgian Jupiler League between Lierse and Westerlo, where Lierse were 2.88 to win, the draw was 3.20 and an away win was 2.40.

Backed 0-0 @ 12.0 as insurance before the game and layed the draw @ 3.55.

Despite picking 2 very evenly matched teams there still are problems with this version of the classic LTD strategy :

In theory if no goals are scored in the first half and then a goal is scored in the second half the draw odds should rise sharply. Obviously the later a team takes the lead the more likely it is that they will end up holding on.

However, because it is 0-0 at half time the odds for the draw will usually down to between 2,60 - 2,80. If there is a goal after this then the jump in odds will not cover the 0-0 insurance bet (if you have placed one and it depends whether you have covered your liability on the 0-0 draw fully or not). This coupled with the fact that the LTD is so common now that the odds don't rise that sharply after a goal has been scored anyway.

In this match the score was 0-0 @ HT. Lierse went up 1-0 in the 2nd half but the draw odds only went from 2,64 to 4,10 :mad:. You really need one team to go 2-0 up to make a decent profit.

What you could do is like take a loss on the draw by trading out of it and then waiting for the 0-0 price to drop enough to make a profit before laying it off if you chose to have a 0-0 insurance bet.

This strategy sounded like a licence to print money at the start .. but it isn't half as good as it sounds :rolleyes:

By backing 0-0, you aren't willing to shoulder the necessary risk to make this strategy worthwhile. It otherwise would be and as you can see from the odds movement in your example, there was ample profit available which was just eaten up by your 0-0 back. You must leave your good bets run whilst cutting your losses. You can't hedge every eventuality so look long term and not at every individual trade to make you money.

BK92

AlphaMale 3OO wrote: »

By backing 0-0, you aren't willing to shoulder the necessary risk to make this strategy worthwhile. It otherwise would be and as you can see from the odds movement in your example, there was ample profit available which was just eaten up by your 0-0 back. You must leave your good bets run whilst cutting your losses. You can't hedge every eventuality so look long term and not at every individual trade to make you money.

Actually, when I think about it this way you make a lot of sense AlphaMale. Thanks . I'll try this when I trade a few games on New Year's Day.

Wouldn't it also be worthwhile in games to wait about 15 minutes for the draw price to drop so you can make more profit ?

Neil3030

AlphaMale 3OO wrote: »

By backing 0-0, you aren't willing to shoulder the necessary risk to make this strategy worthwhile. It otherwise would be and as you can see from the odds movement in your example, there was ample profit available which was just eaten up by your 0-0 back. You must leave your good bets run whilst cutting your losses. You can't hedge every eventuality so look long term and not at every individual trade to make you money.

Exactly. Only 7.3% of games finish 0-0 in the Belgian league, so technically you weren't getting priced into that cover bet (1/12 = 8.3%)

Just for anyone who doesn't grasp this, suppose that the average return for successful LTDs is as above, i.e., the odds jumping from 3.2 to 4.1; this is a profit of 28% (I know that this isn't the case, this is just for example).

So 7.3% of the time you will lose 220% (EV= .16)
and 92.7% of the time you will win 28% (EV= .26)

Your long term yield would be .10

So assuming the league average for 0-0 draws holds out at 7.3%, your break even return for successful LTDs needs to be 17.3%. To account for chance variance, you'd probably want to be hitting 20% though.

If you find you are getting higher than this on average, go with it. If you find you are falling short, it's a non-runner.

Also, if you wanted to further refine your model, I would suggest acquiring the Betfair data and have a look at the prices offered for matches in the Belgian league this year, and see if evenly matched teams (as predicted by match odds prices) were more or less likely to finish 0-0.

Good luck.

BK92

Thanks for the advice Neil. Much appreciated

I have determined from Betfair data that in 44 matches played so far between 'evenly matched' teams in the Belgian Jupiler League, 3 of them have ended 0-0.

This means there is a 6.82% chance of hitting a 0-0 result as opposed to the league average of 7.3%.

However if you exclude GBA/Germinal Beerschot and Zulte-Waregem (in the league 8 games out of their 41 played have finished 0-0) only 1 game (between Charleroi and Kortrijk) would have finished 0-0. This means that only 1 out of 33 or 3% of games between evenly matched sides finished with a 0-0 draw.

I reckon if I could wait between 5-10 minutes into the game before placing my lay bet a decent enough profit could be made.

Still have to backtest on previous seasons data and check out other leagues but this is starting to look promising.

AlphaMale 3OO

Neil3030 wrote: »

Exactly. Only 7.3% of games finish 0-0 in the Belgian league, so technically you weren't getting priced into that cover bet (1/12 = 8.3%)

Just for anyone who doesn't grasp this, suppose that the average return for successful LTDs is as above, i.e., the odds jumping from 3.2 to 4.1; this is a profit of 28% (I know that this isn't the case, this is just for example).

So 7.3% of the time you will lose 220% (EV= .16)
and 92.7% of the time you will win 28% (EV= .26)

Your long term yield would be .10

So assuming the league average for 0-0 draws holds out at 7.3%, your break even return for successful LTDs needs to be 17.3%. To account for chance variance, you'd probably want to be hitting 20% though.

If you find you are getting higher than this on average, go with it. If you find you are falling short, it's a non-runner.

Also, if you wanted to further refine your model, I would suggest acquiring the Betfair data and have a look at the prices offered for matches in the Belgian league this year, and see if evenly matched teams (as predicted by match odds prices) were more or less likely to finish 0-0.

Good luck.

Great way of looking at it. The way I play lay the draw has an 80% success rate at the moment. Match selection is SOOOO important!

BK92 wrote: »

Thanks for the advice Neil. Much appreciated

I have determined from Betfair data that in 44 matches played so far between 'evenly matched' teams in the Belgian Jupiler League, 3 of them have ended 0-0.

This means there is a 6.82% chance of hitting a 0-0 result as opposed to the league average of 7.3%.

However if you exclude GBA/Germinal Beerschot and Zulte-Waregem (in the league 8 games out of their 41 played have finished 0-0) only 1 game (between Charleroi and Kortrijk) would have finished 0-0. This means that only 1 out of 33 or 3% of games between evenly matched sides finished with a 0-0 draw.

I reckon if I could wait between 5-10 minutes into the game before placing my lay bet a decent enough profit could be made.

Still have to backtest on previous seasons data and check out other leagues but this is starting to look promising.

There is no real point in hanging on to place your bet. You'll miss the early goals. Soccer is played over 90 mins and though goals aren't evenly distributed over that period, again you risk curtailing your profits. I must emphasise that if you want a thrill, you should stick to fixed odds betting but if you are willing to work and look long term, there is no limit to what you can achieve. Start researching odds and game stats and you'll find yourself an edge. Look hard, it's there!

And most importantly, accept that you have no control over a game and will have losing days.

BK92

There is no real point in hanging on to place your bet. You'll miss the early goals. Soccer is played over 90 mins and though goals aren't evenly distributed over that period, again you risk curtailing your profits. I must emphasise that if you want a thrill, you should stick to fixed odds betting but if you are willing to work and look long term, there is no limit to what you can achieve. Start researching odds and game stats and you'll find yourself an edge. Look hard, it's there!

And most importantly, accept that you have no control over a game and will have losing days.

I think you've really summed it all up there Alpha. What you say is obvious enough yet most 'wannabe' traders fail to see it.

Will get cracking on that odds/game stats research soon and thanks for all the help

Thank