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Trading tips/strategies

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    #62
    Neil3030
    Registered Users Posts: 17,065 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    AlphaMale 3OO wrote: »
    Great way of looking at it. The way I play lay the draw has an 80% success rate at the moment. Match selection is SOOOO important!

    Care to share :)?


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    #63
    digme
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,584 ✭✭✭digme


    Neil3030 wrote: »
    Care to share :)?
    he could just write you a blank cheque? :D


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    #64
    AlphaMale 3OO
    Closed Accounts Posts: 907 ✭✭✭AlphaMale 3OO


    Neil3030 wrote: »
    Care to share :)?
    digme wrote: »
    he could just write you a blank cheque? :D

    :) Sorry guys I should have mentioned these are obviously not all full profit trades! And obviously all the losses aren't full liability losses. I consider a successful trade as any trade that made a profit of any kind so a €1 win is a success whilst a €200 loss is obviously not. One obviously offsets the other! The "success" rate stands at 79.9% which is still profitable and as I said, with a little research and careful bank management, it should be fairly obvious which games probably won't end in draws, 'probably' being the key word. Just don't go laying Barca at 14s. Does that clarify?


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    #65
    L'prof
    Registered Users Posts: 12,028 ✭✭✭✭L'prof


    AlphaMale 3OO wrote: »
    :) Sorry guys I should have mentioned these are obviously not all full profit trades! And obviously all the losses aren't full liability losses. I consider a successful trade as any trade that made a profit of any kind so a €1 win is a success whilst a €200 loss is obviously not. One obviously offsets the other! The "success" rate stands at 79.9% which is still profitable and as I said, with a little research and careful bank management, it should be fairly obvious which games probably won't end in draws, 'probably' being the key word. Just don't go laying Barca at 14s. Does that clarify?

    They only have one draw in the league, so you'd still be in profit ;)


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    #66
    Neil3030
    Registered Users Posts: 17,065 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    Decision time re: my West Brom bet.

    At the moment I am up 119% on the trade - backed them to be relegated at 9.0, they've since fallen back a bit and are now at 4.1.

    They are on a rotten run of form; won twice, drawn once and lost ten of their last 13 matches, including the present run of five defeats in a row.

    However, their next three games are Blackpool, Blackburn and Wigan - the kind of fixtures where they could well get something.

    Should I close now or expect them to fall farther?


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    #67
    Neil3030
    Registered Users Posts: 17,065 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    I'm also now involved with Blackburn to be relegated at 4.9. Raging I didn't cop this a week ago when they were 9.0. New owners don't seem to have a breeze what they are doing.


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    #68
    johnny_cash
    Registered Users Posts: 388 ✭✭johnny_cash


    I was just looking at champions league betting and seen valencia are 74/1 to win it.They play schalke next and i think the will qualify what do you guys think is there money to be made?


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    #69
    Neil3030
    Registered Users Posts: 17,065 ✭✭✭✭Neil3030


    johnny_cash wrote: »
    I was just looking at champions league betting and seen valencia are 74/1 to win it.They play schalke next and i think the will qualify what do you guys think is there money to be made?

    Something like that I reckon you're just better off betting on Valencia to beat Schalke outright in the match odds.

    You can get Valencia at 1.84 to win the game outright.

    This is a profit of 84%, which means the odds of them winning the tournament would need to fall from 75 to 40 or below should they advance past this round, in order for your method to be better value than the outrigh match bet.

    However it's an interesting one - worth keeping an eye on anyway.


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    #70
    keane2097
    Registered Users Posts: 17,770 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    johnny_cash wrote: »
    I was just looking at champions league betting and seen valencia are 74/1 to win it.They play schalke next and i think the will qualify what do you guys think is there money to be made?

    Think you guys are looking at this sort of bet a bit simplistically tbh.

    Examples would be the Liverpool for the league and Bolton for relegation ones early in the season.

    Liverpool were towards the bottom of the table at one price, but just because they were likely to climb the table somewhat was far from a guarantee of their price changing favourably, as the gap between them and the top teams was still likely to grow, while the number of games they had to catch up was decreasing. The same thing in the opposite direction re:Bolton.

    Similarly, expecting Valencia's odds of winning the CL to shorten just because they progress to the next round is pretty naive. What do you expect to happen to their odds if they draw Barcelona in the next round?


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    #71
    deckycoop
    Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭deckycoop


    soo guys.. new season is upon us... lets get this thrend going again or did you all go bankrupt in 2011/2012 season


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    #72
    ecoli
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,762 ✭✭✭✭ecoli


    Was looking at Swansea Top 4 finish. Currently trading at 31.0 on Betfair.

    There next 6 fixtures arent the toughest and should take away a good few points


    Swansea V Sunderland
    Aston Villa V Swansea
    Swansea V Everton
    Stoke V Swansea
    Swansea V Reading
    Swansea V Wigan


    Just be sure to get out before they have back to back matches with Chelsea and City

    Worth a go?


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    #73
    deckycoop
    Registered Users Posts: 226 ✭✭deckycoop


    yes thats a good spot alrite.. but you have to wait out 5 or 6 games for that 1 to work out..


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    #74
    ecoli
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,762 ✭✭✭✭ecoli


    deckycoop wrote: »
    yes thats a good spot alrite.. but you have to wait out 5 or 6 games for that 1 to work out..


    Not necessarily if they get any sort of results against Sunderland and Villa price could shorten a enough to make a profit


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    #75
    Prick!
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 936 ✭✭✭Prick!


    Hi, I'd be interested in laying. I'm confused about how it works though.

    Say I lay Liverpool @3.00 to finish in 7th (i.e without the top 6) and I put a fiver on this. I'm accountable for 15 euros right? If Liverpool don't come 7th I get the 5 euro?

    I'm just wondering if liverpool dropped down their lay price would also drop, is the profit made by backing both the back and lay at 2 seperate times? i.e the back would have gotten bigger.


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    #76
    keane2097
    Registered Users Posts: 17,770 ✭✭✭✭keane2097


    Prick! wrote: »
    Hi, I'd be interested in laying. I'm confused about how it works though.

    Say I lay Liverpool @3.00 to finish in 7th (i.e without the top 6) and I put a fiver on this. I'm accountable for 15 euros right? If Liverpool don't come 7th I get the 5 euro?

    I'm just wondering if liverpool dropped down their lay price would also drop, is the profit made by backing both the back and lay at 2 seperate times? i.e the back would have gotten bigger.

    Yes the idea is lay at a small price, back at a big price.


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    #77
    Prick!
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 936 ✭✭✭Prick!


    keane2097 wrote: »
    Yes the idea is lay at a small price, back at a big price.

    How do you work out the figures for both? Say if I lay 5 euro @6.00 and back @10.00 what do I put on the back?

    Also not sure if this is correct, but are we aiming for the backing price to go above the price you layed at?


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