Trading tips/strategies

Neil3030 · 31-10-2010 08:59PM #1

Anyone into trading football on Betfair? Wanna get a thread going for tips etc?

I am liking the look of two potential trades right now, but they are season long bets:

West Brom 9.0 to be relegated. Currently lying in 6th, one can only see them regressing, sooner or later at which point a decent profit could be locked in.

Liverpool 160.0 for the title. Similarly, you can only see Pool kicking on and improving from their early season woes, given new owners and the off field troubles coming to an end. Probably not as dead a cert to steam as the Baggies but should be a decent investment.

digme · 31-10-2010 09:37PM

They're very unlikely to happen and it's too long of a wait.

Neil3030 · 31-10-2010 09:54PM

digme wrote: »

They're very unlikely to happen and it's too long of a wait.

It doesn't matter if they happen or not, you just need the odds to shorten on each market so you can lay for a profit. Once you do this your stake will be re-credited to your betfair account but the profit will only be applied at the end of the season.

digme · 31-10-2010 10:00PM

Ya that's the great thing about trading,I'm new to it myself.I do a bit of tennis trading most days and a small bit of soccer but I think your picks are crap.The only way I'm trading long term is by having physical silver and gold. You must have loads of money to tie up in these trades .

brilou23 · 31-10-2010 10:17PM

i use only bookmakers is betfair good

digme · 31-10-2010 10:20PM

Ya it's great. Takes a few days to get used to, but it's worth having a look at.

Kod-box · 01-11-2010 01:30AM

Neil3030 wrote: »

It doesn't matter if they happen or not, you just need the odds to shorten on each market so you can lay for a profit. Once you do this your stake will be re-credited to your betfair account but the profit will only be applied at the end of the season.

So when you lay off some of a large bet to cover your stake, they refund the stake straight away and not at the end of the season?

Im not a fan of long-term bets either but that has opened me upto it a bit more if its the case.

fonda · 01-11-2010 11:35AM

Pick a match you think there will be goals in, lay the draw before the game say at 3 or 4/1. Then when a goal goes in odds of a draw will go up then back it at the higher odds. Hope I explained that right.

duffman13 · 01-11-2010 01:07PM

It depends on wat kind of money ur lookin to make but for a bet like the op has it's a long wait b4 u can lay off. Tennis and golf are generally excellent locking in quick profits. On the football I would generally agree with Fonda on the draws. Another one I like is the over 2.5 Goals.

The important thing to do though is set yourself a target price so when ya reach that price you lay off. It's hard for people using betfair to get used to that. Your no longer a gambler on betfair! Remember to set yourself a stop loss target for example if ur bet is going against u, you have a set loss in place and when that has been reached you trade out.

bookie basher · 02-11-2010 01:31AM

villareal to win the europa league, was up near 40/1 a while back now hovering around the 25/1 mark, they have a good team and are doing well in spain

Neil3030 · 02-11-2010 06:56PM

Kod-box wrote: »

So when you lay off some of a large bet to cover your stake, they refund the stake straight away and not at the end of the season?

Im not a fan of long-term bets either but that has opened me upto it a bit more if its the case.

Yes, if you can manage to green your book they will replenish your account with any stakes made, but profit will only be applied when the market closes.

ValueSeeker · 03-11-2010 01:02PM

fonda wrote: »

Pick a match you think there will be goals in, lay the draw before the game say at 3 or 4/1. Then when a goal goes in odds of a draw will go up then back it at the higher odds. Hope I explained that right.

Laying the draw isn't as simple as that mate, you have to be very selective and know exactly how the markets react to goals for certain teams for it to be profitable in the long run.

You need a strict exit strategy if things aren't going as planned and there isn't a lot of room for error.

I used to do it but it was too much effort for the profits I was making.

Neil3030 · 08-11-2010 11:20PM

LTD works best when you've two teams evenly priced who are both unlikely to score in the first half, but likely to get a goal in the second half.

Neil3030 · 12-11-2010 08:10PM

Neil3030 wrote: »

Anyone into trading football on Betfair? Wanna get a thread going for tips etc?

I am liking the look of two potential trades right now, but they are season long bets:

West Brom 9.0 to be relegated. Currently lying in 6th, one can only see them regressing, sooner or later at which point a decent profit could be locked in.

Liverpool 160.0 for the title. Similarly, you can only see Pool kicking on and improving from their early season woes, given new owners and the off field troubles coming to an end. Probably not as dead a cert to steam as the Baggies but should be a decent investment.

Just to update these 2 scenarios:

West Brom are now 7.2 to be relegated. (25% Profit for anyone who backed at 9.0)

Liverpool are now 80 for the title. (100% Profit for anyone who backed at 160.0

Booyeah :cool:

m.j.w · 12-11-2010 08:20PM

Neil3030 wrote: »

Just to update these 2 scenarios:

West Brom are now 7.2 to be relegated. (25% Profit for anyone who backed at 9.0)

Liverpool are now 80 for the title. (100% Profit for anyone who backed at 160.0

Booyeah :cool:

Hi neil, good idea for a thread but your figures are a bit misleading there. If you laid off now for a green on west brom you would have a 25% profit if they got relegated but you would have nothing if they stayed up. Same goes for liverpool but they are never gonna win the league now so that was a great trade. A few more decent results and the market will over react and that will come in even more!

Neil3030 · 12-11-2010 08:24PM

m.j.w wrote: »

Hi neil, good idea for a thread but your figures are a bit misleading there. If you laid off now for a green on west brom you would have a 25% profit if they got relegated but you would have nothing if they stayed up

I am calculating as follows:

Back EUR100 @ 9.0
Lay EUR125 @ 7.2

Back win: 800 (775 lost on the lay)
Lay win: 125 (100 lost on the back)

Either way, you are guaranteed EUR25, which is 25% of your initial stake.

m.j.w · 12-11-2010 08:32PM

sorry my mistake, dont know what i was at there

Neil3030 · 12-11-2010 08:35PM

m.j.w wrote: »

sorry my mistake, dont know what i was at there

I think I know the mistake you were making - you hadn't adjusted your lay bet to maximise profit?

I.e., 100 on the back and 100 on the lay would have resulted in the scenario you describe.

This calculator is pretty good for working out stakes: http://www.arbcruncher.com/backlay.asp

Padjoe · 13-11-2010 12:52AM

Cracking thread Neil - keep up the good work

This is something I've been dabbling in and have learnt a few lessons -main one is not to be greedy and trade out at the right time. Lately i've been trading out too early leaving my greening up not too great but its a learning process. Those were 2 cracking opportunities you spotted and no matter how long you have to wait until they pay out its all about the long term and not the short. Hopefully I can add to this thread at some stage aswell.

Padjoe

Neil3030 · 13-11-2010 02:16PM

Padjoe wrote: »

Cracking thread Neil - keep up the good work

This is something I've been dabbling in and have learnt a few lessons -main one is not to be greedy and trade out at the right time. Lately i've been trading out too early leaving my greening up not too great but its a learning process. Those were 2 cracking opportunities you spotted and no matter how long you have to wait until they pay out its all about the long term and not the short. Hopefully I can add to this thread at some stage aswell.

Padjoe

Thanks Padjoe. I still reckon there's value there to get involved with those two trades at 7.2 and 80.0. Particularly the latter, if Pool are given funds to get some players in come January.

Discipline is indeed key though. For example when I'm trading the under/over market, my formula is to 2 low scoring teams, get in at nil-all, trade out as soon as I've a 20-40% profit (depending on how the game is going) and also trade out as soon as a goal is scored and take the loss. Keeps the burn minimal.

What markets do you trade?

Neil3030 · 13-11-2010 07:14PM

Bolton's price for being relegated has traded as high as 17.0 today.

digme · 14-11-2010 07:35PM

They're playing very well,no way are they getting relegated.

Neil3030 · 14-11-2010 07:51PM

digme wrote: »

They're playing very well,no way are they getting relegated.

You really aren't getting a grasp of this are you?

Once they fall from 5th, the odds on them being relegated will reduce, allowing you to trade out for a profit.

digme · 14-11-2010 08:16PM

I know exactly what your doing.I just think it's not a great investment.

Neil3030 · 14-11-2010 08:25PM

You've the wrong stake there for your lay.

100 backed at 18.5 should be offset by a 105.71 lay when the odds fall to 17.5, locking in a 5.5% profit regardless of outcome.

Bolton are playing quite well, but I'd be confident they will return to midtable over the next month or so and their relegation odds will drop to around the 5-9 mark.

digme · 14-11-2010 09:27PM

I've never even seen that before.
I only joined bet fair in august or July or something, that makes things even safer now.
All the trading i was doing was back high lay low etc, never dawned on me about what you just did above. Very glad I seen your post today now. Nice one.
Anyway i still think doing that with Bolton is nuts you'd want to be backing with big enough amounts and the liquidity is crap as far as I can see.

What happens if it goes the other way you'd lose a load just for your 5%

Got any links for a good calculator?

Neil3030 · 14-11-2010 09:51PM

digme wrote: »

I've never even seen that before.
I only joined bet fair in august or July or something, that makes things even safer now.
All the trading i was doing was back high lay low etc, never dawned on me about what you just did above. Very glad I seen your post today now. Nice one.
Anyway i still think doing that with Bolton is nuts you'd want to be backing with big enough amounts and the liquidity is crap as far as I can see.

What happens if it goes the other way you'd lose a load just for your 5%

Got any links for a good calculator?

I do indeed sir: http://www.arbcruncher.com/index.asp You need to select "Back/Lay" from the drop down menu in the top right corner of the calculator (It's set to multiback as default).

The arithmetic is basically:

Back Price / Lay price * Back Stake = Lay Stake.

You're right the liquidity is pants, but you should get a few hundred invested in and around the 15-18 mark. The good thing about betfair is that it replenishes your account with all your stakes once you "lay out" for a profit. So even though you won't get your profit until the market closes, you can reinvest your bankroll in the meantime.

digme · 14-11-2010 10:01PM

I was going to let my ego get in the way and say "oh, i knew that, i was just putting the odds in there as an illustration",but we're all in this together lol and I'm always looking to learn more. You know yourself,

The arithmetic is basically:

Back Price / Lay price * Back Stake = Lay Stake.

I must get some practice using that now tomorrow.
Cheers for the link I'll add that to my gambling folder of bookmarks.
Ya i love that about it, it's the best site in the world hands down

If you do decide to go for that bolton one i hope to **** they start losing some matches haha. goodluck with it anyway

jive · 15-11-2010 03:01AM

boltons next 2 games are at home to newcastle and blackpool!! after that comes city away. i wouldnt be backing until after the newcastle/blackpool games as they may well get something from them. cant see them getting anything away to city though

just a thought :P

if i create a better bankroll after the blackpool game i may take on this back/lay business!

L'prof · 15-11-2010 10:49AM

I like the look of this! Just out of interest, do you place both bets at the same time leaving one unmatched?

Neil3030 · 15-11-2010 11:31AM

L'prof wrote: »

I like the look of this! Just out of interest, do you place both bets at the same time leaving one unmatched?

You could do this, in fact that would be a sensible strategy as it shows discipline (i.e., I'll back now, ask for a lay of 40% profit and then just leave well alone).

However this is not possibly on some markets. Betfair, for example, will sometimes (if not always) cancel all unmatched bets when a market goes in-play.

You should be o.k. to do this with season long bets like winner/relegation markets though.

boltons next 2 games are at home to newcastle and blackpool!! after that comes city away. i wouldnt be backing until after the newcastle/blackpool games as they may well get something from them. cant see them getting anything away to city though

Very good point, well spotted.

Trading tips/strategies

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