Trading tips/strategies

Neil3030

Anyone into trading football on Betfair? Wanna get a thread going for tips etc?

I am liking the look of two potential trades right now, but they are season long bets:

West Brom 9.0 to be relegated. Currently lying in 6th, one can only see them regressing, sooner or later at which point a decent profit could be locked in.

Liverpool 160.0 for the title. Similarly, you can only see Pool kicking on and improving from their early season woes, given new owners and the off field troubles coming to an end. Probably not as dead a cert to steam as the Baggies but should be a decent investment.

digme

They're very unlikely to happen and it's too long of a wait.

Neil3030

digme wrote: »

They're very unlikely to happen and it's too long of a wait.

It doesn't matter if they happen or not, you just need the odds to shorten on each market so you can lay for a profit. Once you do this your stake will be re-credited to your betfair account but the profit will only be applied at the end of the season.

digme

Ya that's the great thing about trading,I'm new to it myself.I do a bit of tennis trading most days and a small bit of soccer but I think your picks are crap.The only way I'm trading long term is by having physical silver and gold. You must have loads of money to tie up in these trades .

brilou23

i use only bookmakers is betfair good

digme

Ya it's great. Takes a few days to get used to, but it's worth having a look at.

Kod-box

Neil3030 wrote: »

It doesn't matter if they happen or not, you just need the odds to shorten on each market so you can lay for a profit. Once you do this your stake will be re-credited to your betfair account but the profit will only be applied at the end of the season.

So when you lay off some of a large bet to cover your stake, they refund the stake straight away and not at the end of the season?

Im not a fan of long-term bets either but that has opened me upto it a bit more if its the case.

fonda

Pick a match you think there will be goals in, lay the draw before the game say at 3 or 4/1. Then when a goal goes in odds of a draw will go up then back it at the higher odds. Hope I explained that right.

duffman13

It depends on wat kind of money ur lookin to make but for a bet like the op has it's a long wait b4 u can lay off. Tennis and golf are generally excellent locking in quick profits. On the football I would generally agree with Fonda on the draws. Another one I like is the over 2.5 Goals.

The important thing to do though is set yourself a target price so when ya reach that price you lay off. It's hard for people using betfair to get used to that. Your no longer a gambler on betfair! Remember to set yourself a stop loss target for example if ur bet is going against u, you have a set loss in place and when that has been reached you trade out.

bookie basher

villareal to win the europa league, was up near 40/1 a while back now hovering around the 25/1 mark, they have a good team and are doing well in spain

Neil3030

Kod-box wrote: »

So when you lay off some of a large bet to cover your stake, they refund the stake straight away and not at the end of the season?

Im not a fan of long-term bets either but that has opened me upto it a bit more if its the case.

Yes, if you can manage to green your book they will replenish your account with any stakes made, but profit will only be applied when the market closes.

ValueSeeker

fonda wrote: »

Pick a match you think there will be goals in, lay the draw before the game say at 3 or 4/1. Then when a goal goes in odds of a draw will go up then back it at the higher odds. Hope I explained that right.

Laying the draw isn't as simple as that mate, you have to be very selective and know exactly how the markets react to goals for certain teams for it to be profitable in the long run.

You need a strict exit strategy if things aren't going as planned and there isn't a lot of room for error.

I used to do it but it was too much effort for the profits I was making.

Neil3030

LTD works best when you've two teams evenly priced who are both unlikely to score in the first half, but likely to get a goal in the second half.

Neil3030

Neil3030 wrote: »

Anyone into trading football on Betfair? Wanna get a thread going for tips etc?

I am liking the look of two potential trades right now, but they are season long bets:

West Brom 9.0 to be relegated. Currently lying in 6th, one can only see them regressing, sooner or later at which point a decent profit could be locked in.

Liverpool 160.0 for the title. Similarly, you can only see Pool kicking on and improving from their early season woes, given new owners and the off field troubles coming to an end. Probably not as dead a cert to steam as the Baggies but should be a decent investment.

Just to update these 2 scenarios:

West Brom are now 7.2 to be relegated. (25% Profit for anyone who backed at 9.0)

Liverpool are now 80 for the title. (100% Profit for anyone who backed at 160.0

Booyeah :cool:

m.j.w

Neil3030 wrote: »

Just to update these 2 scenarios:

West Brom are now 7.2 to be relegated. (25% Profit for anyone who backed at 9.0)

Liverpool are now 80 for the title. (100% Profit for anyone who backed at 160.0

Booyeah :cool:

Hi neil, good idea for a thread but your figures are a bit misleading there. If you laid off now for a green on west brom you would have a 25% profit if they got relegated but you would have nothing if they stayed up. Same goes for liverpool but they are never gonna win the league now so that was a great trade. A few more decent results and the market will over react and that will come in even more!

Neil3030

m.j.w wrote: »

Hi neil, good idea for a thread but your figures are a bit misleading there. If you laid off now for a green on west brom you would have a 25% profit if they got relegated but you would have nothing if they stayed up

I am calculating as follows:

Back EUR100 @ 9.0
Lay EUR125 @ 7.2

Back win: 800 (775 lost on the lay)
Lay win: 125 (100 lost on the back)

Either way, you are guaranteed EUR25, which is 25% of your initial stake.

m.j.w

sorry my mistake, dont know what i was at there

Neil3030

m.j.w wrote: »

sorry my mistake, dont know what i was at there

I think I know the mistake you were making - you hadn't adjusted your lay bet to maximise profit?

I.e., 100 on the back and 100 on the lay would have resulted in the scenario you describe.

This calculator is pretty good for working out stakes: http://www.arbcruncher.com/backlay.asp

Padjoe

Cracking thread Neil - keep up the good work

This is something I've been dabbling in and have learnt a few lessons -main one is not to be greedy and trade out at the right time. Lately i've been trading out too early leaving my greening up not too great but its a learning process. Those were 2 cracking opportunities you spotted and no matter how long you have to wait until they pay out its all about the long term and not the short. Hopefully I can add to this thread at some stage aswell.

Padjoe

Neil3030

Padjoe wrote: »

Cracking thread Neil - keep up the good work

This is something I've been dabbling in and have learnt a few lessons -main one is not to be greedy and trade out at the right time. Lately i've been trading out too early leaving my greening up not too great but its a learning process. Those were 2 cracking opportunities you spotted and no matter how long you have to wait until they pay out its all about the long term and not the short. Hopefully I can add to this thread at some stage aswell.

Padjoe

Thanks Padjoe. I still reckon there's value there to get involved with those two trades at 7.2 and 80.0. Particularly the latter, if Pool are given funds to get some players in come January.

Discipline is indeed key though. For example when I'm trading the under/over market, my formula is to 2 low scoring teams, get in at nil-all, trade out as soon as I've a 20-40% profit (depending on how the game is going) and also trade out as soon as a goal is scored and take the loss. Keeps the burn minimal.

What markets do you trade?

Neil3030

Bolton's price for being relegated has traded as high as 17.0 today.

digme

They're playing very well,no way are they getting relegated.

Neil3030

digme wrote: »

They're playing very well,no way are they getting relegated.

You really aren't getting a grasp of this are you?

Once they fall from 5th, the odds on them being relegated will reduce, allowing you to trade out for a profit.

digme

I know exactly what your doing.I just think it's not a great investment.

Neil3030

You've the wrong stake there for your lay.

100 backed at 18.5 should be offset by a 105.71 lay when the odds fall to 17.5, locking in a 5.5% profit regardless of outcome.

Bolton are playing quite well, but I'd be confident they will return to midtable over the next month or so and their relegation odds will drop to around the 5-9 mark.

digme

I've never even seen that before.
I only joined bet fair in august or July or something, that makes things even safer now.
All the trading i was doing was back high lay low etc, never dawned on me about what you just did above. Very glad I seen your post today now. Nice one.
Anyway i still think doing that with Bolton is nuts you'd want to be backing with big enough amounts and the liquidity is crap as far as I can see.

What happens if it goes the other way you'd lose a load just for your 5%

Got any links for a good calculator?

Neil3030

digme wrote: »

I've never even seen that before.
I only joined bet fair in august or July or something, that makes things even safer now.
All the trading i was doing was back high lay low etc, never dawned on me about what you just did above. Very glad I seen your post today now. Nice one.
Anyway i still think doing that with Bolton is nuts you'd want to be backing with big enough amounts and the liquidity is crap as far as I can see.

What happens if it goes the other way you'd lose a load just for your 5%

Got any links for a good calculator?

I do indeed sir: http://www.arbcruncher.com/index.asp You need to select "Back/Lay" from the drop down menu in the top right corner of the calculator (It's set to multiback as default).

The arithmetic is basically:

Back Price / Lay price * Back Stake = Lay Stake.

You're right the liquidity is pants, but you should get a few hundred invested in and around the 15-18 mark. The good thing about betfair is that it replenishes your account with all your stakes once you "lay out" for a profit. So even though you won't get your profit until the market closes, you can reinvest your bankroll in the meantime.

digme

I was going to let my ego get in the way and say "oh, i knew that, i was just putting the odds in there as an illustration",but we're all in this together lol and I'm always looking to learn more. You know yourself,

The arithmetic is basically:

Back Price / Lay price * Back Stake = Lay Stake.

I must get some practice using that now tomorrow.
Cheers for the link I'll add that to my gambling folder of bookmarks.
Ya i love that about it, it's the best site in the world hands down

If you do decide to go for that bolton one i hope to **** they start losing some matches haha. goodluck with it anyway

jive

boltons next 2 games are at home to newcastle and blackpool!! after that comes city away. i wouldnt be backing until after the newcastle/blackpool games as they may well get something from them. cant see them getting anything away to city though

just a thought :P

if i create a better bankroll after the blackpool game i may take on this back/lay business!

L'prof

I like the look of this! Just out of interest, do you place both bets at the same time leaving one unmatched?

Neil3030

L'prof wrote: »

I like the look of this! Just out of interest, do you place both bets at the same time leaving one unmatched?

You could do this, in fact that would be a sensible strategy as it shows discipline (i.e., I'll back now, ask for a lay of 40% profit and then just leave well alone).

However this is not possibly on some markets. Betfair, for example, will sometimes (if not always) cancel all unmatched bets when a market goes in-play.

You should be o.k. to do this with season long bets like winner/relegation markets though.

boltons next 2 games are at home to newcastle and blackpool!! after that comes city away. i wouldnt be backing until after the newcastle/blackpool games as they may well get something from them. cant see them getting anything away to city though

Very good point, well spotted.

Padjoe

Neil3030 wrote: »

Thanks Padjoe. I still reckon there's value ther[HTML][/HTML]e to get involved with those two trades at 7.2 and 80.0. Particularly the latter, if Pool are given funds to get some players in come January.

Discipline is indeed key though. For example when I'm trading the under/over market, my formula is to 2 low scoring teams, get in at nil-all, trade out as soon as I've a 20-40% profit (depending on how the game is going) and also trade out as soon as a goal is scored and take the loss. Keeps the burn minimal.

What markets do you trade?

I'll trade any market were there seems to be good oppurtunity. Made an absolute blunder at the weekend and instead of hitting the back button I hit the lay button and put out a silly price for taylor to win the darts grand slam. It was of course immediatly taken by some lucky punter. Spent the rest of the weekend correcting the mistake and almost have my bankroll back to normal. Never doing this again from my mobile!!!

My advice for anyone looking to get into this is to start off with small stakes to get the hang of it all and then go large.

I see liverpool have drifted back out to 150/1

L'prof

Neil3030 wrote: »

You could do this, in fact that would be a sensible strategy as it shows discipline (i.e., I'll back now, ask for a lay of 40% profit and then just leave well alone).

However this is not possibly on some markets. Betfair, for example, will sometimes (if not always) cancel all unmatched bets when a market goes in-play.

You should be o.k. to do this with season long bets like winner/relegation markets though.

Can't you edit your unmatched bets to stay open at in-play? During the season should be fine though, as you said.

Neil3030

Everton currently trading at 1000 for the title, sitting 13th in the League.

Their next four games will see them play West Brom, Sunderland and Wigan. The other of these matches will see them play Chelsea.

I can see them picking up some points from these fixtures and moving up the table, at which point the odds on them taking the title will shorten.

Neil3030

L'prof wrote: »

Can't you edit your unmatched bets to stay open at in-play? During the season should be fine though, as you said.

You can, but not an all markets. Correct score markets, for example, don't permit this.

Neil3030

Padjoe wrote: »

I see liverpool have drifted back out to 150/1

Yeah, they had actually traded as high as 160.0 after the Stoke loss, but have come back to about 130 - 140 now.

They've a nice run of games coming up though:

West Ham (H)
Tottenham (A)
Aston Villa (H)
Newcastle (A)
Fulham (H)
Blackpool (A)
Wolverhampton (H)
Bolton (H)
Blackburn (A)

Maybe after the Newcastle game would be a nice time to get involved.

AIR-AUSSIE

digme wrote: »

How can you access this feature on the betfair website? Or is it something else?

Neil3030

AIR-AUSSIE wrote: »

How can you access this feature on the betfair website? Or is it something else?

Click the little chart icon on any market

Looks like this ->

AIR-AUSSIE

is this still possible on Betfair.

Minimum Bet

I would like to play around with some bets with small money first. Couldn't get it to work when I tried it. Have they stopped it.

ValueSeeker

Over/ under trading strategy (Please note that like a lot of the best trading strategies, you need to be selective and be able to read games and probabilities very well)

Very important: Go against the trend. IE: To find the best value, you need to spot matches that in reality are going against the pre match opinion reflected by the odds. In other words, for this strategy, find matches with dour first halves that were odds on to be over 2.5 prematch.

I will use an initial £100 stake in this example to keep it simple.

1. Wait until half time and lay the over 1.5 (if 0-0) or lay over 2.5 (if 1-0 either way). More than 1 goal and it quite obviously isn't a game that falls into the 'dour' category. Odds will be around 1.8 (liability = £80)

2. At around the 63 minute mark if the game remains the same score, back the over 2.5 with enough just to cover your £80 liability. Odds will be approx 4.0.

3. If there is a goal in this time, you implement the exit strategy(NB). If no more goals are scored until about minute 73 (depends on the game for exact minute), odds will have returned to 1.8 and you now back this for £100 to break you even.

The only matches you will lose your stake in are matches that have 2 goals from minute 46-73(approx) and if you are reading the game correctly, this should only happen less than 20% of the time.

Over many matches, your wins will far outwiegh your losses assuming you know your stuff.

Neil3030

ValueSeeker wrote: »

Over/ under trading strategy (Please note that like a lot of the best trading strategies, you need to be selective and be able to read games and probabilities very well)

Very important: Go against the trend. IE: To find the best value, you need to spot matches that in reality are going against the pre match opinion reflected by the odds. In other words, for this strategy, find matches with dour first halves that were odds on to be over 2.5 prematch.

I will use an initial £100 stake in this example to keep it simple.

1. Wait until half time and lay the over 1.5 (if 0-0) or lay over 2.5 (if 1-0 either way). More than 1 goal and it quite obviously isn't a game that falls into the 'dour' category. Odds will be around 1.8 (liability = £80)

2. At around the 63 minute mark if the game remains the same score, back the over 2.5 with enough just to cover your £80 liability. Odds will be approx 4.0.

3. If there is a goal in this time, you implement the exit strategy(NB). If no more goals are scored until about minute 73 (depends on the game for exact minute), odds will have returned to 1.8 and you now back this for £100 to break you even.

The only matches you will lose your stake in are matches that have 2 goals from minute 46-73(approx) and if you are reading the game correctly, this should only happen less than 20% of the time.

Over many matches, your wins will far outwiegh your losses assuming you know your stuff.

Thanks for sharing this strategy.

Just a couple of questions - when you say "the odds will have returned to 1.8", which odds are you referring to?

And also, if your initial bet was in the 1.5 market, do yo ustill cover your bet in the 2.5 market, or what way does that work? I presume it's 1.5 for the 1.5 market, 2.5 for the 2.5?

jive

blackpool to be relegated....

their next 6 games are ; united(h), stoke(a), spurs(h), liverpool(h), sunderland (a) and city (a)

after these games i assume that theyre price to be relegated will shorten and i could trade out for a profit? does anyone have any advice on this? i have around ~ €300 to invest if it is worth it.

i'm new to betfair (just opened an account) so all advice is welcome :P

oddo

blackpool will stay up.;)

jive

oddo wrote: »

blackpool will stay up.;)

thats not the point :P the point is i dont see them getting much from these games and they will drift down the table and their price will shorten

Neil3030

jive wrote: »

blackpool to be relegated....

their next 6 games are ; united(h), stoke(a), spurs(h), liverpool(h), sunderland (a) and city (a)

after these games i assume that theyre price to be relegated will shorten and i could trade out for a profit? does anyone have any advice on this? i have around ~ €300 to invest if it is worth it.

i'm new to betfair (just opened an account) so all advice is welcome :P

Yeah that seems like a pretty decent spot. That is a horrendous run of games which I can scarcely see them getting more than 2-3 points from.

Problem is their current price of 1.97 may not come down all that much, but even if it moves to 1.6, you've secured a 23% profit.

8-10

Bordeaux to win in France is 12.0 on Betfair right now, trade opportunity? They're in 6th position but only 2points off the top because the league has been so tight thus far.

Unbeaten in last 5 games and next is Saint-Étienne (a), Stade Rennes (h), Sochaux (a), Lens (h) before a big game v Marseille.

Consider Lyon are below them in the league and are 4.3 to win, I think 12 is long for a team that won the league 2 years ago.

Neil3030

8-10 wrote: »

Bordeaux to win in France is 12.0 on Betfair right now, trade opportunity? They're in 6th position but only 2points off the top because the league has been so tight thus far.

Unbeaten in last 5 games and next is Saint-Étienne (a), Stade Rennes (h), Sochaux (a), Lens (h) before a big game v Marseille.

Consider Lyon are below them in the league and are 4.3 to win, I think 12 is long for a team that won the league 2 years ago.

I may get invovled there, nice spot.

I'm starting to like the looks of laying Chelsea for the title, then backing back in 4 games time. They don't seem at the races at all and have Everton (H), Tottenham (A), Man Utd (H) and Arsenal (A) in their next 4 games.

I reckon that price (currently 2.6) could drift a bit. Even if it goes to 3.0 - 3.5 there's a 15%-35% profit to be made.

AIR-AUSSIE

Neil3030 wrote: »

I do indeed sir: http://www.arbcruncher.com/index.asp You need to select "Back/Lay" from the drop down menu in the top right corner of the calculator (It's set to multiback as default).

The arithmetic is basically:

Back Price / Lay price * Back Stake = Lay Stake.

You're right the liquidity is pants, but you should get a few hundred invested in and around the 15-18 mark. The good thing about betfair is that it replenishes your account with all your stakes once you "lay out" for a profit. So even though you won't get your profit until the market closes, you can reinvest your bankroll in the meantime.

Can Anyone confirm the calculation this calculator uses? I'd like to set-up my own spreadsheet.

Neil3030

AIR-AUSSIE wrote: »

Can Anyone confirm the calculation this calculator uses? I'd like to set-up my own spreadsheet.

The formula I use is to calculate the right price to lay at is:

a/b*c = d.

Where a = initial back price
where b = new lay price
where c = initial back stake
where d = profit maximising lay stake

Neil3030

O.K. guys, so as not to be one of those douches that only talks about his winnings, let's update where my season bets are, even though some haven't gone the way that I was expecting:

Liverpool: Now 210 for the title: (Backed @ 160 - 31% loss)

Everton: Still no movement from 1000 for the title and no lay option yet. (Potential for 100% loss unless this changes) In hindsight, I may have been better backing them for a top 10 finish.

West Brom: 10 to be relegated (Backed @ 9 - 11% loss)

Bolton: 55 to be relegated (Backed @ 17 - 69% loss)

Bordeaux: 21 for the title (Backed @ 12 - 75% loss)

Man Utd: 2.34 for the title: (Backed @ 3 - 28% profit)

Chelsea: 3.05 for the title: (Layed @ 2.62 - 16% profit)

johnny_cash

Hi guys can somebody please explain to me how this works where i could make a profit if the team or player don't win the tournament? i have only bet and layed on betfair to get a free bet if you know what i mean.I think phil taylor will be great for this trading he is available at 6/5 and i think will only get shorter as the tournament goes on.