One to keep an eye on!

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Some volcano weather related comments from the Eruptions blog. Feck feck and feck again if the Puyehue eruption brings an early cold winter for us in it's wake.

M. RANDOLPH KRUGER on June 6, 2011, 10:20 AM
The hot link for the satellite for this is as follows:

- http://www.smn.gov.ar/mostrar.php?var=./pronos/imagenes/sat.jpg&titulo=Imagen%20de%20sat%E9lite%20Infrarroja%20Goes-12%20en%20alta%20resoluci%F3n -

Its being hit very hard right now so it takes a bit of time to download the pictures. There are other aggregators out there that are making movies but this is the raw feed for the region.

This is the swimming pool version of the picture from space of this. Its a huge eruption as well tossing pumice stones about 10-12 kms from the eruption point. Not hard to believe as the winds in the area are from the NW and the bomblets are almost to the Argentine border. They go up, get aided by the wind and they fall in a predictable manner. At 31,000 feet a 38 mph wind and at 35,000 its nearly 60. Its not unlike hailstones that are blown out of the tops of thunderstorms 20 miles away.

Renato-I think you are going to be seeing light ash and sulfur smells in a couple of days. Keep that car washed or covered as dew will form with the ash/sulfur in it. Sulfuric acid bubbles. Rains likely will carry a lot of acid in it too.

- http://wxmaps.org/pix/sa5.00hr.png -

Effects on the weather? Nothing immediate until it gets out into the oceans. Its a dense plume for starts and that causes general cooling. Next stop is Africa and then Australia. Splits in the jetstream over the mid South Atlantic is going to take it north. And, apparently this is an eruption and not an explosion so we may have a long term problem to deal with. Expect floods without a doubt and a colder than normal summer in the latter parts of it. Total effect is not known but this is a big one and shooting stuff into the air like a rocket. Columnar injection of all sorts of gases into the upper atmosphere.

- http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1960_charts/at1960.gif -

- http://www.wunderground.com/data/dhc_archive_charts/at_1961_charts/at1961.gif -

Food production slowed as well due to crappy weather. But there were a lot of volcanoes going off or had gone off by that time as well. Sheveluch and Klyuchevskoy had been blasting along with the rest of the world.

- http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/kilauea/history/1960Jan13/ -

- http://damontucker.com/2011/01/10/video-of-the-1960-volcanic-eruption-of-kapoho-on-the-big-island/ -

- http://www.fao.org/docrep/x5572E/x5572e07.htm -

All in all this may create havoc in the longer term with early cold to an already late planted season in the N. Hemisphere. That planted season was also stunted in the EU because of the lack of rain. The US got rain, the EU got little.

The food issue may come to the forefront because of this eruption.

LURKING on June 6, 2011, 11:42 AM
M. RANDOLPH KRUGER on June 6, 2011, 10:20 AM

“All in all this may create havoc in the longer term with early cold to an already late planted season in the N. Hemisphere. … The US got rain, the EU got little.

The food issue may come to the forefront because of this eruption."

Late season? I read that about 16% of Iowa’s tillable land is still underwater and the Corps of engineers is running around trying to plug leaks. On leak was noted as “somewhere between a garden hose, and a fire hose” in the amount of water coming through.

Yeah… it’s gonna be interesting.

ILVAR KHORSTOON on June 6, 2011, 12:02 PM
@Kruger and my “pal” @Lurking:

Russia got some freak weather. Lots of rain and thunderstorms in east european part. Temperatures went up to 30 now they are going down to 15. There have been episodes of floods, either as a consequence of heavy snowfall in winter or as a direct result of current weather.

Even if things calm down and we get warmer it is clear that we will be far from what happened last year as it’s pouring heavily from above, soils are soaked and the Volga is quite high now.

Meanwhile Far East there seems to be on a serious drought. Lots of reports on fires.

Frankly it is a 50/50 situation here. If weather gets better here we surely are gonna beat records on some products. If it keeps on, well, it is going to be as bad as last year’s drought. The real question are the next two-three weeks.

M. RANDOLPH KRUGER on June 6, 2011, 1:43 PM
@Ilvar and Lurk.

Watch for the huge storms that just keep on coming on the peripheries of the high pressures. In between the domes of the highs. We can expect some humongo weather in the near future.

A question for Erik/Boris-Any guess on how much stuff is being ejected per second/minute. Also, is this the pre-cursor to an explosive event like a flank fail or the top being blown off. I have been measuring the rate of rise and its almost unbelievable at times. 300 mph which is an estimate of course. Supersonic at that altitude but slacking off at 22,000 to a mere 200 mph.

And it has bad breath !

http://bigthink.com/ideas/38731

up for anything

Bloody hell - one of the big thinkers just posted this:

gustavolp2011 @C5N HIZO ERUPCION EL VOLCAN HORNOPIREN!!! A 25 KM DE “EL BOLSON” PASEN EL ALERTA! HAY 100 MIL PERSONAS ALREDEDOR…
1 minute ago – Ban – Delete http://www.ustream.tv/channel/c5n

Google Translate: HORNOPIREN the volcano erupted! A 25 KM OF "pockets " PASS THE ALERT! THERE ARE AROUND 100 THOUSAND PEOPLE ...

Hornopirén is a stratovolcano located in the Andes, in Los Lagos Region of Chile, south of Yate Volcano and east of Apagado or Hualiaque pyroclastic cone. Hornopirén lies on the major regional Liquine-Ofqui Fault. The volcano is said to have erupted in 1835, although no details are known. The name of the volcano derives from the Spanish word for oven, horno and the native Mapudungun word for snow pirén, thus Hornopirén means snow oven.

I'm going for a nose on Twitter.

ETA: I can't find a single reference to Hornopirén apart from that tweet which I tracked down that was posted on BT. False alarm probably because with mobiles twitter should be blocked with the news.

je55ie

Seems to be a false alarm alright, I had a look around too and nothing!

up for anything

jessie37 wrote: »

Seems to be a false alarm alright, I had a look around too and nothing!

I did notice that that the guy was tweeting local news stations. Maybe he is hoping to get some money out of it if it is true. I did tweet him asking him where he got the information (in Spanish as well) but he hasn't replied. Wait and see I suppose.

je55ie

up for anything wrote: »

I did notice that that the guy was tweeting local news stations. Maybe he is hoping to get some money out of it if it is true. I did tweet him asking him where he got the information (in Spanish as well) but he hasn't replied. Wait and see I suppose.

really, interesting alright, definitely wait and see so, would this be a big eruption if true?

up for anything

jessie37 wrote: »

really, interesting alright, definitely wait and see so, would this be a big eruption if true?

I haven't a clue to be honest. There isn't much known about it's previous eruptions. I can't find any geologic info on old lave flows and laying down of volcanic material. I checked earthquakes and there doesn't seem to have been any there so a bit of mystery. Not even the scientists can predict eruption size but they do base what predictions they give on previous information and behaviour and there is none of that available randomly on the net so hard to guess at.

up for anything

An Eritrean volcano has just erupted but so far only pics are satellite. Looks like it might be a huge show.

http://earthquake-report.com/2011/06/12/unusual-series-of-moderate-volcanic-earthquakes-in-eritrea-and-ethiopia/

Strong earthquakes are setting off a powerful volcanic eruption in Eritrea (based on satellite images)

Last update: June 12, 2011 at 10:51 pm by By Armand Vervaeck and James Daniell 1 Comment

May we ask our Eritrean and/or Ethiopian readers to tell us what exactly is going on here by filling in the form below.
UPDATE 22:35 UTC : This will be a very special volcano eruption because we expect that the eruption comes from the Dubbi volcano who had it’s latest recorded activity in 1861.
UPDATE 22:35 UTC : The following satellite picture clearly indicates that an eruption is going on in the area. Look at the upper right quarter. A point will gradually grow to a major cloud, which means that based on the scale the eruption is very huge.

UPDATE 22:02 UTC : @ earthquake-report.com we expect that it will take at least 12 hours before we can get a more precise picture of what happened. We will keep you updated just as we do with all other earthquake and volcanic events that we are following up.
UPDATE 21:45 UTC : The earthquake intensity of the 5.7 magnitude earthquake (latest one) caused 451 people to feel a strong shaking and 17,000 people a moderate shaking (theoretical values)
UPDATE 21:44 UTC : As reported below the last known eruption of one the volcanoes dates back to 1861 (Dubbi volcano) and killed 106 people

The red point is the location of the first tremor - the landscape has a volcanic origin
UPDATE 21:36 UTC : Some more information on the volcanic complex :
Mallahle is the central of three NE-SW-trending stratovolcanoes in the Danakil horst SW of Dubbi volcano, and lies SSW of Nabro volcano.
These two volcanoes, along with Bara Ale and Sork’Ale, form the Bidu volcanic complex. The complex Mallahle stratovolcano is truncated by a steep-walled 6-km-wide caldera. Mallahle is formed of rhyolitic lava flows and pyroclastics. Basaltic lava flows blanket the slopes of the
volcano. Recent obsidian flows are found on the NW flank of Mallahle and older obsidian flows were erupted on the northern caldera floor.
Flank spatter and scoria cones are most numerous on the western side of the volcano. Extensive ignimbrite deposits associated with the collapse of Mallahle and Nabro volcanoes blanket the countryside.
UPDATE 21:28 UTC : These magnitudes can lead to serious damage if the epicenter is below or very near to Afambo (which is very nearby based on the seismological data) . We do not think that there will be injured people as the series started with moderate earthquakes and as people will stay on the streets after so many earthquakes. The current situation tends to become very dangerous.
UPDATE 21:23 UTC : A Mw5.7 has been also recorded at depth 9km in around the same area. No record of damage has yet been recorded.
UPDATE 21:03 UTC : Lucas Tavares reports in our Facebook page : I was studying about this volcanoes past hours. Maybe the shakes surrounds the Mallahle or Nabro Caldera, there is’nt any known eruptions of these volcanoes! Shakes are becoming stronger!
UPDATE 20:58 UTC : We have still no trace (as expected) of what is really going on. This last 5.4 earthquake can be damaging at this shallow depth when the epicenter is located below a village or town. As we are unsure of the exact epicenter (the error margin may be 10 to 30 km different than reported by the USGS).
UPDATE 20:56 UTC : The earthquakes are continuing with the last one as the strongest so far with a magnitude of 5.4 at a depth of 10 km.
UPDATE 20:33 UTC : We are more and more convinced that one of the nearby volcanoes went into an active status as the distance to the ridge fault is to big to create this kind of earthquakes. Additionally almost all the earthquakes are occurring near the volcano complex on the picture (courtesy Google Earth)
UPDATE 19:37 UTC : This unusual series of moderate earthquakes have also occurred a couple of months ago in the Gulf of Aden. The earthquakes are typical for separating irregular tectonic plates. The series in the Gulf of Aden had their epicenter in the immediate area of the ridge fault.
Due to the close-by volcanoes, an eruption pattern of the Dubbi volcano is still possible. The pre-eruption pattern of both the Icelandic and Chilean volcanoes from the last few weeks is also present here. Compared to Iceland and Chile, Eritrea has other concerns than looking to beautiful eruptions. We will follow up these events and will come back to you as soon as we can get more data ?
UPDATE 16:11 UTC : Other agencies are reporting totally different and less dangerous numbers : GFZ: 4.9 @ 43 km and EMSC 4.7 @ 200 km
Moderate shallow earthquake with an epicenter almost below Afambo.
Approx. 15 km from the Dubbi volcano. The peak of the Dubbi volcano is 1625 m. There have been four known eruptions. In 1400 lava was determined to have reached the Red Sea while in 1861 ash was thrown over 250 km from the volcano. Two further events were suspected between 1861 and the 20th century.
During the late afternoon and evening of June 12 2011 a series of moderate earthquake struck at first near Afambo in Eritrea and later 100 km more to the south in Ethiopia. At the moment of writing, we do not know whether these earthquake have a tectonic or a volcanic origin.

Other moderate earthquakes which occurred after the first earthquake which is described in detail

M 4.5 2011/06/12 21:37 Depth 15.0 km ERITREA – ETHIOPIA REGION
M 5.7 2011/06/12 21:03 Depth 9.9 km ERITREA – ETHIOPIA REGION
M 5.7 2011/06/12 20:32 Depth 10.1 km ERITREA – ETHIOPIA REGION
M 4.8 2011/06/12 19:44 Depth 9.9 km ERITREA – ETHIOPIA REGION
M 4.7 2011/06/12 19:37 Depth 10.1 km ERITREA – ETHIOPIA REGION
M 4.5 2011/06/12 18:01 Depth 10.1 km ETHIOPIA
M 5.0 2011/06/12 19:21 Depth 10.0 km ETHIOPIA
M 4.7 2011/06/12 17:47:21 13.538 41.588 Depth 10.0 km ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
M 4.8 2011/06/12 17:18:10 13.381 41.764 Depth 9.9 km ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
M 4.3 2011/06/12 16:33:12 13.507 41.722 Depth 10.0 km ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
M 4.8 2011/06/12 16:24:44 13.436 41.682 Depth 10.0 km ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
M 4.7 2011/06/12 16:12:03 13.397 41.734 Depth 10.0 km ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
M 4.5 2011/06/12 16:09:30 13.443 41.696 Depth 2.9 km

ERITREA - ETHIOPIA REGION
Most important Earthquake Data:
Magnitude : 5.1
UTC Time : Sunday, June 12, 2011 at 15:37:05 UTC
Local time at epicenter : Sunday, June 12, 2011 at 06:37:05 PM at epicenter
Depth (Hypocenter) : 10 km
Geo-location(s) :
Almost below Afambo, Eritrea
128 km (79 miles) WNW of Assab, Eritrea

up for anything

From BT

PIETER on June 12, 2011, 6:54 PM
The ash cloud has already travelled 250km northwest! To compare: in Icelandic terms that would be from Grimsvotn to Reykjavik!

It's called Dubbi Volcano.

Dubbi Volcano
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Dubbi
Elevation 1,625 m (5,331 ft)

Location Southern Red Sea region, Eritrea
Coordinates 13.58°N 41.80°ECoordinates: 13.58°N 41.80°E
Geology
Type Stratovolcano

Last eruption 2011 (ongoing)
The Dubbi Volcano is a stratovolcano located in the Southern Red Sea Region of Eritrea. Its peak elevation is 1625 m. There have been four known eruptions. In 1400 lava was determined to have reached the Red Sea while in 1861 ash was thrown over 250 km from the volcano.[1] Two further events were suspected between 1861 and the 20th century. On June 12, 2011, after being dormant for 150 years, the volcano erupted again.

It could also be Nabro Volcano and not Dubbi. Hurray for volcanos with easy to prononce names though.

Nabro Volcano
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Nabro
Elevation 2,218 m (7,277 ft)
Location
Location Northern Red Sea Region, Eritrea
Coordinates 13.37°N 41.70°ECoordinates: 13.37°N 41.70°E
Geology
Type Stratovolcano
Last eruption unknown

The Nabro Volcano is a stratovolcano located in the Northern Red Sea Region of Eritrea. It is located in the Danakil Depression.

http://i54.tinypic.com/2mfjl10.jpg

lolie

Looks like a big one alright
http://www.sat24.com/en/et

up for anything

It'll have the conspiracy theorists in multiple orgasm mode because it's so close to their Gulf of Aden stargate. :pac:

up for anything

And another one.


From BT

M. RANDOLPH KRUGER on June 12, 2011, 7:59 PM
T.G. was right KIZIMEN has exploded massively…. Someone else punch up and publish the info. I am going for the satellites

Kizimen volcano in Russia has been grumbling for a long while now but if I remember rightly without looking back at stuff, they were thinking there might be flank failure (I think that is the correct terminology) which was the same type of eruption as at Mount Saint Helens. Unfortunately there is no webcam there but fortunately there are also no people to be affected by this. I'd imagine ash clouds might be a problem though for that area of the Northern Hemisphere.

up for anything

And another one.


From BT

M. RANDOLPH KRUGER on June 12, 2011, 7:59 PM
T.G. was right KIZIMEN has exploded massively…. Someone else punch up and publish the info. I am going for the satellites

Kizimen volcano in Russia has been grumbling for a long while now but if I remember rightly without looking back at stuff, they were thinking there might be flank failure (I think that is the correct terminology) which was the same type of eruption as at Mount Saint Helens. Unfortunately there is no webcam there but fortunately there are also no people to be affected by this. I'd imagine ash clouds might be a problem though for that area of the Northern Hemisphere.

Duiske

up for anything wrote: »

An Eritrean volcano has just erupted but so far only pics are satellite. Looks like it might be a huge show.

Thanks for that. Had noticed the strong seismic activity since about 4pm, and was wondering what was going on. There have been 17 quakes close to or above mag 5 in that area today.

up for anything

A newer satellite pic.

http://www.sat24.com/gzoom.aspx?ir=true&region=et&x=400&y=227

up for anything

More from Eritrea:

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/latestImages/EUMETSAT_MSG_RGB-airmass-easternAfrica.jpg

http://www.meteo.fr/vaac/archives/DUBBI/e.20110613035500.DUBBI.201101.201106130400.html

VA ADVISORY

DTG: 20110613/0400Z

VAAC: TOULOUSE

VOLCANO: DUBBI 0201-10

PSN: N1335 E04148

AREA: ETHIOPIA

SUMMIT ELEV: 1625M

ADVISORY NR: 2011/01

INFO SOURCE: METEOSAT IMAGERY

AVIATION COLOUR CODE: UNKNOWN

ERUPTION DETAILS: ERUPTION STARTED AROUND 23UTC

OBS VA DTG: 20110613/0400Z

OBS VA CLD: FL150/300 N1330 E04145 - N1440 E03435 - N1625 E03430 -

N1330 E04145

FCST VA CLD + 6H: 13/0900Z

FCST VA CLD + 12H: 13/1500Z

FCST VA CLD + 18H: 13/2100Z

RMK: PLEASE CHECK SIGMET FOR CURRENT WARNINGS.

NXT ADVISORY: 20110613/1000Z

http://www.sat24.com/et?ir=false

http://www.sat24.com/et?ir=false

And this a webcam grab from Puyehue.

http://www2.sernageomin.cl/ovdas/ovdas7/informativos2/camara-futangue/fija/futangue.jpg

roryc1

Even Wiki dosen't know much about Nabro volcano in Eritrea, can't wait to see some pics or video of this, it looks huge
http://www.sat24.com/en/af?ir=true

maquiladora

Eritrea eruption sounds very interesting, that plume looks huge on Sat24.

I see reports that ashfall is happening over 250km away from the eruption.

roryc1

Looks like its Dubbi that is erupting not Nabro
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubbi_Volcano
http://www.meteo.fr/vaac/archives/DUBBI/e.20110613070800.DUBBI.201102.201106130600.html

maquiladora

roryc1 wrote: »

Looks like its Dubbi that is erupting not Nabro
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dubbi_Volcano
http://www.meteo.fr/vaac/archives/DUBBI/e.20110613070800.DUBBI.201102.201106130600.html

I've seen it reported as both Nabro & Dubbi. I guess the remote location and lack of monitoring in the region are making things sketchy still.

roryc1

maquiladora wrote: »

I've seen it reported as both Nabro & Dubbi. I guess the remote location and lack of monitoring in the region are making things sketchy still.

No real information coming out of the area, even the local papers and news site's have nothing at the moment

maquiladora

roryc1 wrote: »

No real information coming out of the area, even the local papers and news site's have nothing at the moment

I'm not expecting much good info to come out of the official media there, and even when they do say something it will need to be taken with a massive pinch of salt!

In its 2010 Press Freedom Index, Reporters Without Borders classified the media environment in Eritrea at 178 out of 178, the lowest possible rating, and below that of totalitarian North Korea at 177.

:eek:

maquiladora

Large hq image from NASA.

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/subsets/tmp/Ethiopia.2011164.terra.721.250m.jpg

Bruce Stout on the Eruptions blog had this comment on that pic : the modis image clearly shows it is Nabro, probably from within the caldera. Also seems to be some incandesence visible from space in daylight? huh?

Another hi res image : http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realtime/2011164/crefl2_143.A2011164104500-2011164105000.250m.jpg

maquiladora

This looks pretty conclusive, if this overlay is correct, it has to be Nabro. :



The other green icon is Dubbi.

theres been a couple of earthquakes south of Lake Toba also.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/quakes_big.php

up for anything

Amazing video. I wouldn't like to think of the Nore in a state like that.

Diver trying to swim in the lake Nahuel Huapi, which is covered by a thick layer of volcanic ash emitted by the volcano Puyehue.


Nabro Volcano - looks like it's covered in snow only it's ash.

maquiladora

Nabro has become more active again today.

http://www.sat24.com/en/et?ir=true



According to Earthquake Report :

A number of 3 new Magnitude 3 earthquakes did sett off a new stronger eruption from the Nabro volcano. The first of the 3 shocks occurred at 01:30 AM UTC (Thanks to Dr Franzky for mentioning)

Elmo5

Puyehue-Cordón Caulle in Chile is now a VEI 6! :eek:

Anyone know the VEI on Nabro yet?

maquiladora

Elmo5 wrote: »

Puyehue-Cordón Caulle in Chile is now a VEI 6! :eek:

Eh? I think youre getting confused with the 91 Pinatubo eruption.

Elmo5

Nope, it was a 3, then a 4 and now it's a 6.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index

maquiladora

Elmo5 wrote: »

Nope, it was a 3, then a 4 and now it's a 6.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volcanic_Explosivity_Index

Wow, didn't know know it had been upgraded to 6, last I read it was 4. :P I guess it must be really chugging out a good volume of ejecta.