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The case against Metro North - is there one?

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    #212
    cavedave
    Registered Users Posts: 2,164 ✭✭✭cavedave


    Pete_Cavan
    I also very much doubt purchasing, maintaining, insuring and fuelling an automated car will be cheaper for an individual then using public transport.
    I agree I think they will be mainly used for public transport (the video i linked to earlier explains one proposed system).
    Similarly, I have doubts over your assertion that automated cars will be safer.

    Humans are quite good drivers when they are not distracted. The problem in 80% of accidents is that they do get distracted. They text their friends, they fight on their speakerphone, they drink, take drugs and get tired. They also start off and finish up being awful drivers. Computers drivers do not have these problems.

    The google autonomous cars have driven 140,000 Miles so far so there not that dangerous now and Moores law is in their favour.

    You make a fair point about traffic gridlock. But i think if someone is asleep in their car they wont mind if the commute is longer. Also automated systems can do actions to reduce traffic jams that normal drivers do not do.


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    #213
    Aard
    Registered Users Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Aard


    If we're going down the personal rapid transit route, why not just go for broke and use ULTra? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ULTra) It's not particularly expensive, and runs on electricity.


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    #214
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    cavedave wrote: »
    Do you think that video was sent from the future?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6LYi2NAi8zE


    Yes at least initially cars will remain slow. They will also continue not to have people sneezing on you and always have seating unlike mass transit.
    MN will still be quicker .Even if automated cars could be perfected and lets say they could . Car automated or not will still be affected by the weather, traffic and events in Dublin . All of which MN wouldn't be . Also how fast do you think is reasonable for a car automated or not too drive in Dublin ? At the end of the day a car has a certain breaking distance based on mass,brakes etc. So it's not like automation will lead to car drive down O'Connell St at 120 kph


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    #215
    mgmt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,361 ✭✭✭mgmt


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    MN will still be quicker


    http://www.rpa.ie/en/projects/metro_north/Pages/default.aspx
    • City Centre to Airport in 20 minutes
    • City Centre to Swords in 25 minutes

    Bus to airport is 20minutes atm
    Bus to Swords is 35mintues atm

    Do you really want to shell out 3++billion on a metro to areas that are already well serviced?


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    #216
    Aard
    Registered Users Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Aard


    mgmt wrote: »
    Do you really want to shell out 3++billion on a metro to areas that are already well serviced?
    By that logic, you could say the same about DU.


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    #217
    zootroid
    Registered Users Posts: 784 ✭✭✭zootroid


    mgmt wrote: »
    http://www.rpa.ie/en/projects/metro_north/Pages/default.aspx


    Bus to airport is 20minutes atm
    Bus to Swords is 35mintues atm

    Do you really want to shell out 3++billion on a metro to areas that are already well serviced?

    Bus to airport in 20 minutes? Are you serious? The only time you could make that time would be 4 in the morning on a monday night when there's nobody around. How long do you think it would take at 5 in the evening during the week?


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    #218
    cavedave
    Registered Users Posts: 2,164 ✭✭✭cavedave


    LeinsterDub

    MN will still be quicker .Even if automated cars could be perfected and lets say they could . Car automated or not will still be affected by the weather, traffic and events in Dublin . All of which MN wouldn't be . Also how fast do you think is reasonable for a car automated or not too drive in Dublin ? At the end of the day a car has a certain breaking distance based on mass,brakes etc. So it's not like automation will lead to car drive down O'Connell St at 120 kph

    As I already said at least initially cars will remain slow. Later when they are all fully automated they can get much smaller, quicker and you will not need traffic lights etc. But that is too far in the future to worry about.

    Automated cars reduce the cost of car transport. Your time is worth money and if you do not have to waste it driving you are more likely to travel by car. Even with the same traffic problems as at present the cost to the individual of driving drops when the car is autonomous.

    When your competitors price drops your demand drops. These new mass transit systems are based on a certain level of demand. I believe this demand will not be present over the decades it needs to be to make them a worthwhile investment.


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    #219
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users Posts: 6,768 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    cavedave wrote: »

    Automated cars reduce the cost of car transport. Your time is worth money and if you do not have to waste it driving you are more likely to travel by car. Even with the same traffic problems as at present the cost to the individual of driving drops when the car is autonomous.

    When your competitors price drops your demand drops. These new mass transit systems are based on a certain level of demand. I believe this demand will not be present over the decades it needs to be to make them a worthwhile investment.

    That is the biggest load of BS i have ever heard. I the scenario you described above, where we use automated cars but the same traffic problems as at present, your commute to work still takes the same length of time. This does not reduce the cost to the individual of driving, the individual may go longer be doing the drving, because the cars is autonomous, but they still spend the same length of time sitting in the car. As I said before, there is limited capacity on the roads, so if everybody started using automated cars there will be gridlock on the streets. MN will remain unaffected by this gridlock, therefore will be faster, therefore people will use it.

    By the time automated driving is reality the PPP contract for MN will have ended and it will have returned to state ownership. The construction costs of MN will have been paid off so the state will only have to cover the operational costs, this will be done through the fares charged. The annual operational costs will be spread over up to 35 million passengers. Therefore the annual cost to an individual for using MN for there commute to work will be relatively low, and I am sure it will be much lower than the cost of purchasing, maintaining, insuring and fuelling an automated car for a year.

    Out of all the arguments I have heard against MN, automated car is by far the most ridiculous. The infrastructure forum is a place for intelligent debate, not science fiction.


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    #220
    mgmt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,361 ✭✭✭mgmt


    zootroid wrote: »
    Bus to airport in 20 minutes? Are you serious? The only time you could make that time would be 4 in the morning on a monday night when there's nobody around. How long do you think it would take at 5 in the evening during the week?

    I get the bus from Busáras to Belfast via the Airport and it takes maximum (and is scheduled to take) 20 minutes to the airport, all times of the day.


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    #221
    Aard
    Registered Users Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Aard


    It's currently €6 to go from Busáras to DUB. Purely on the airport merits alone, the metro would be cheaper, connect with three rail lines, come every few minutes, and bring people right into the centre of town.


    That's not to mention its other benefits.


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    #222
    mgmt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,361 ✭✭✭mgmt


    Aard wrote: »
    It's currently €6 to go from Busáras to DUB. Purely on the airport merits alone, the metro would be cheaper, connect with three rail lines, come every few minutes, and bring people right into the centre of town.


    That's not to mention its other benefits.

    Do you really want to take money out of the pockets of every Irish taxpayer just so that the cost of a ticket would be cheaper to the Airport?


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    #223
    Chris_5339762
    Registered Users Posts: 5,858 ✭✭✭Chris_5339762


    Its like other underground systems in the world. Once the thing is built (and Interconnector built), people will wonder how on earth Dublin survived without it and couldnt imagine the city without them.

    All this complaining has to be ignored completely and the thing built.


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    #224
    Aard
    Registered Users Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Aard


    mgmt wrote: »
    Do you really want to take money out of the pockets of every Irish taxpayer just so that the cost of a ticket would be cheaper to the Airport?
    There are many other benefits, which I said. I focussed on the airport benefits because that's what you had been arguing.


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    #225
    cavedave
    Registered Users Posts: 2,164 ✭✭✭cavedave


    Pete_Cavan

    This does not reduce the cost to the individual of driving, the individual may go longer be doing the drving, because the cars is autonomous, but they still spend the same length of time sitting in the car.

    Of course it reduces the cost. Now they can sleep, read, and watch TV while commuting. Your time is valuable and if you can spend it on leisure activities rather than driving in traffic you are better off.
    Out of all the arguments I have heard against MN, automated car is by far the most ridiculous. The infrastructure forum is a place for intelligent debate, not science fiction.

    What probability do you think there is that autonomous vehicles will be regularly seen on Irish roads in 2020?

    "This is not science fiction," Larry Burns, GM's vice president for research and development


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    #226
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    mgmt wrote: »
    http://www.rpa.ie/en/projects/metro_north/Pages/default.aspx


    Bus to airport is 20minutes atm
    Bus to Swords is 35mintues atm

    Do you really want to shell out 3++billion on a metro to areas that are already well serviced?


    Bus to airport 20 minutes. MN to airport including O'Connell st, Hospital, DCU etc etc 20 minutes


    Bus to airport 20 minutes , Bus to airport during bad weather take a guess . MN to airport including O'Connell st,Hospital, DCU etc etc during bad weather 20 minutes


    Bus to airport 20 minutes , Bus to airport 10, 20 ,30 years from now take a guess . MN to airport including O'Connell st,Hospital, DCU etc etc 10, 20 ,30 years 20 minutes


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    #227
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    cavedave wrote: »
    What probability do you think there is that autonomous vehicles will be regularly seen on Irish roads in 2020?
    0% more chance of Hydrogen cars


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    #228
    mgmt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,361 ✭✭✭mgmt


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    Bus to airport 20 minutes. MN to airport including O'Connell st, Hospital, DCU etc etc 20 minutes


    Bus to airport 20 minutes , Bus to airport during bad weather take a guess . MN to airport including O'Connell st,Hospital, DCU etc etc during bad weather 20 minutes


    Bus to airport 20 minutes , Bus to airport 10, 20 ,30 years from now take a guess . MN to airport including O'Connell st,Hospital, DCU etc etc 10, 20 ,30 years 20 minutes


    Accounts for Veolia Transport Dublin Light Rail show turnover dropped by 1.6 per cent to €39.7 million in 2009

    A total of 25.4 million trips were taken in 2009
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1028/1224282143210.html



    Someone said in a previous post it would cost roughly 150million to fund metro north per year (capital funding). Imagine the maintenance costs of metro north (current). Two Luas lines currently generate 40million p.a. In 10, 20 30 years the Metro North will still be loss making.


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    #229
    LeinsterDub
    Registered Users Posts: 8,229 ✭✭✭LeinsterDub


    mgmt wrote: »
    http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/finance/2010/1028/1224282143210.html



    Someone said in a previous post it would cost roughly 150million to fund metro north per year (capital funding). Imagine the maintenance costs of metro north (current). Two Luas lines currently generate 40million p.a. In 10, 20 30 years the Metro North will still be loss making.

    MN has a projected 2:1 cost benefit ratio and I've no idea where that 150 million comes from


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    #230
    Telchak
    Registered Users Posts: 888 ✭✭✭Telchak


    I think there's some confusion here. As far as I know, income from ticket sales cover maintenance/running costs with the profit going towards the operator. The €150million (or so) per year is a separate cost of funding the PPP, that starts when the system is operating and lasts for 30 or 40 years (or whatever the length of time was). If recent PPPs are anything to go by, there will probably be a clause that if the ticket sales don't cover the operating costs then the government must make up the difference.

    Obviously these are arbitrary numbers, but the formula still applies ;)


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    #231
    mgmt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,361 ✭✭✭mgmt


    LeinsterDub wrote: »
    MN has a projected 2:1 cost benefit ratio and I've no idea where that 150 million comes from

    Where did you come up with 2:1? I did a search and I came up with 1.31. TBH I don't have much faith in that figure either. Telchak said it better than me, Metro North will require a major subvention every year.

    Myth: No cost benefit analysis of Metro North has been prepared

    Fact: An independently audited cost benefit analysis has been carried out. The project benefits exceed costs by a ratio of 2:1.

    A previous published review of RPA’s projections by advisors to the Oireachtas Joint Transport committee concluded that RPA was underestimating the benefits that would be delivered by Metro.


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    #232
    Telchak
    Registered Users Posts: 888 ✭✭✭Telchak


    mgmt wrote: »
    Where did you come up with 2:1? I did a search and I came up with 1.31. TBH I don't have much faith in that figure either.

    That figure has come recently from the RPA, in light of falling construction costs I think (:
    mgmt wrote: »
    Telchak said it better than me, Metro North will require a major subvention every year.

    Not what I meant. The PPP contract will likely mean it will require subvention if it doesn't reach projected passenger numbers. The €150million is the mortgage payment on the thing, which is something we obviously have to pay for ;)


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    #233
    Sulmac
    Registered Users Posts: 1,021 ✭✭✭Sulmac


    For those interested, here's the "Metro North Updated Detailed Business Case" from July this year. Of course, all of the important figures have been removed.

    It says that the benefit-to-cost ratio is 1.55:1, but if we include the "wider economic benefits" (like spin-off industry) it increases to 2:1 (page 11).


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    #234
    zootroid
    Registered Users Posts: 784 ✭✭✭zootroid


    mgmt wrote: »
    I get the bus from Busáras to Belfast via the Airport and it takes maximum (and is scheduled to take) 20 minutes to the airport, all times of the day.

    I don't accept that for one minute. In June 09 I got a bus from Westmoreland Street to the airport at 7 on a sunday evening, it took 40 minutes.

    A few weeks ago I got a taxi from Dawson street to the airport at 2 in the afternoon (again, not rush hour) and it took 30 minutes.

    So trying to get to the airport during rush hour from Stephens Green (route the Metro will take) can't be done in 20 minutes.

    Last night I was at the International Rules. It took us almost an hour to drive from the North Circular Road to East Wall Road, due to the traffic, and the guards had closed off Drumcondra Road. Imagine being a tourist last night trying to get to the airport, who would have been unaware of the match: "Sorry you missed your flight, there was a match on, so the city grinds to a halt. Didn't you know that?"


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    #235
    Aard
    Registered Users Posts: 4,905 ✭✭✭Aard


    zootroid wrote: »
    "Sorry you missed your flight, there was a match on, so the city grinds to a halt. Didn't you know that?"
    This happens in many cases: parades; strikes; bad weather; car crash; flooding. In cities with metros, these things by and large have no effect on one's ability to get across town quickly.

    In terms of working-hours saved, the metro will add a lot to the economy.


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    #236
    DWCommuter
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,032 ✭✭✭DWCommuter


    zootroid wrote: »
    Imagine being a tourist last night trying to get to the airport, who would have been unaware of the match: "Sorry you missed your flight, there was a match on, so the city grinds to a halt. Didn't you know that?"

    And if Metro North had of been in place it wouldn't have been thronged with supporters from Croke Park? No possible delays due to a match? Come off it please. MN, if built, does not guarantee a match in Croke Park won't have an impact on it. Add to that the fact that there will still be road congestion.

    WTF is it with people who think MN will be like the ****ing TARDIS from Doctor Who!


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    #237
    mgmt
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,361 ✭✭✭mgmt


    zootroid wrote: »
    I don't accept that for one minute. In June 09 I got a bus from Westmoreland Street to the airport at 7 on a sunday evening, it took 40 minutes.

    A few weeks ago I got a taxi from Dawson street to the airport at 2 in the afternoon (again, not rush hour) and it took 30 minutes.

    So trying to get to the airport during rush hour from Stephens Green (route the Metro will take) can't be done in 20 minutes.

    Last night I was at the International Rules. It took us almost an hour to drive from the North Circular Road to East Wall Road, due to the traffic, and the guards had closed off Drumcondra Road. Imagine being a tourist last night trying to get to the airport, who would have been unaware of the match: "Sorry you missed your flight, there was a match on, so the city grinds to a halt. Didn't you know that?"

    It is done every hour of the day, every day.
    http://www.enterprisetrain.com/Documents/PDFs/Service%20200%20CC%20Oct2010_print.pdf


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    #238
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users Posts: 6,768 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    DWCommuter wrote: »
    And if Metro North had of been in place it wouldn't have been thronged with supporters from Croke Park? No possible delays due to a match? Come off it please. MN, if built, does not guarantee a match in Croke Park won't have an impact on it. Add to that the fact that there will still be road congestion.

    WTF is it with people who think MN will be like the ****ing TARDIS from Doctor Who!

    The beauty of a train system is that you can put on extra trains when you know there is going to be extra demand. So for matchs in Croker, you put on extra trains an hour before kick off and for an hour after the match. MN does not guarantee a match in Croke Park won't have any impact but it does guarantee minimum impact.


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    #239
    saeglopur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 112 ✭✭saeglopur


    mgmt wrote: »
    I get the bus from Busáras to Belfast via the Airport and it takes maximum (and is scheduled to take) 20 minutes to the airport, all times of the day.

    But this is a direct service. MN will stop at stations along its route while continuing on to swords thus benefiting passengers not just using the airport but along the whole route in the same amount of time. It takes numerous bus routes at the moment to achieve anything near this connectivity with the airport and journey times are certainly longer on areas serviced by non direct routes.

    For example if you wanted to take the 41 bus to the airport from the drumcondra station area it is scheduled to take 25 mins at the moment while if you wanted to continue on to swords it would take you 41 mins. These times are for routes that do not even enter the city centre and give a more realistic picture of public transport times to the airport.

    While it is all well and good comparing transport times for direct routes to the airport these services are rarely full and are not used by large sections of airport users.
    http://www.dublinbus.ie/en/Your-Journey1/Timetables/All-Timetables/41/


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    #240
    senordingdong
    Registered Users Posts: 10,673 ✭✭✭✭senordingdong


    mgmt wrote: »
    http://www.rpa.ie/en/projects/metro_north/Pages/default.aspx


    Bus to airport is 20minutes atm
    Bus to Swords is 35mintues atm

    Do you really want to shell out 3++billion on a metro to areas that are already well serviced?

    From the city centre?

    Really?
    Jesus, I never would have thought it was that quick, I would have though it about double that.


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    #241
    saeglopur
    Closed Accounts Posts: 112 ✭✭saeglopur


    Doubt many Swords residents would agree with the well serviced part either


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