[Article] Massive Solar Shockwave Heading Towards Earth

gbee

OisinT wrote: »

.. we want to see at least G2 grade, preferably G3 to see anything good.

Thanks and goodnight. I called off my journey an hour ago.

pauldry

Was running out there in the country just now and the sky actually cleared for a while. However it was just normal coloured, nothing arora like at all. Then just after 15mins more the clouds came back over the clear part and ruined it all again but I dont think theres anyone out there just yet.:)

mgsrocks

pauldry wrote: »

Was running out there in the country just now and the sky actually cleared for a while. However it was just normal coloured, nothing arora like at all. Then just after 15mins more the clouds came back over the clear part and ruined it all again but I dont think theres anyone out there just yet.:)

Same in North Dublin, clear skies to the north but nothing to see. I'm getting a flight in a few hours so I'll be keeping an eye on it, hopefully it'll kick off before morning :cool:

hellboy99

Break here in the clouds at the minute but no aurora.

FreudianSlippers

Same here just outside Phoenix Park, lots of clear patches and the sky is an amazing deep purple but no aurora. Hopefully tomorrow!

Iancar29

Ye we went for a drive also... Ended up at bettystown beach .... Had clear skies for awhile... But notin.

The "massive" should be taken away from the thread title.

delw

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ye we went for a drive also... Ended up at bettystown beach .... Had clear skies for awhile... But notin.

The "massive" should be taken away from the thread title.

you sure you were watchin the sky iancar :D

only joking

FreudianSlippers

Iancar29 wrote: »

Ye we went for a drive also... Ended up at bettystown beach .... Had clear skies for awhile... But notin.

The "massive" should be taken away from the thread title.

Well, it still was a massive CME... I mean look at the geomagnetic activity:





The halo-CME isn't even here yet either, so...

Stevek101

Are we definitely into tomorrow night now for the big impact or will it still be tonight/this morning?

FreudianSlippers

The forecast is vague as to how long the major storm could last, but essentially they are saying that we will reach major storm levels beginning midday on 05 August and a decrease to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 2 (06 August)

storm2811

OisinT wrote: »

The forecast is vague as to how long the major storm could last, but essentially they are saying that we will reach major storm levels beginning midday on 05 August and a decrease to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 2 (06 August)

Would they cause any electricity/communications problems?
Still waiting to see the lights.

FreudianSlippers

Quick update before bed:





EXTENDED WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 4 expected
Extension to Serial Number: 1650
Valid From: 2010 Aug 03 1830 UTC
Now Valid Until: 2010 Aug 05 1500 UTC
Warning Condition: Persistence



Largest geomagnetic storms arising from the long-duration C3 flare on 01 August thus far has been from 03 August 2100 zulu time until 04 August 0300 zulu.
Solar winds peaked during this period at 657 km/s.

Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels until midday on day 1 (05 August). Activity is forecast to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels beginning midday on 05 August due to the expected arrival of a CME associated with a large filament disappearance on 01 August. Activity is expected to decrease to unsettled to minor storm levels on day 2 (06 August) as the CME passage continues. A further decrease to quiet to unsettled levels is expected on day 3 (07 August).

FreudianSlippers

storm2811 wrote: »

Would they cause any electricity/communications problems?
Still waiting to see the lights.

It's unlikely we'd get anything over G3 (if we even get G3). So worst case scenario is:

Power systems: voltage corrections may be required, false alarms triggered on some protection devices.
Spacecraft operations: surface charging may occur on satellite components, drag may increase on low-Earth-orbit satellites, and corrections may be needed for orientation problems.
Other systems: intermittent satellite navigation and low-frequency radio navigation problems may occur, HF radio may be intermittent, and aurora has been seen as low as Illinois and Oregon (typically 50° geomagnetic lat.)


Dublin's latitude is about 53°N (geographic) and it's corrected magnetic latitude is 52°N - which means between G2 & G3 we could certainly see the aurora.
As far as loss of power, I don't think we will have voltage problems... perhaps a failsafe could trigger and we could lose power briefly, but the companies should be on high alert regarding that at the moment.
I'm not sure I'd be taking any 15 hour flights at the moment though... the electron levels I posted earlier were a bit high.

maquiladora

30% chance of a severe magnetic storm today.

FreudianSlippers

The calm before the storm?

http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=67286280&postcount=133

Garseys

So first CME has passed I presume?

maquiladora

Not looking good, even if there is a good storm, we probably won't see it...

Tonight

It will be a wet and damp night for much of the country as the rain slowly spread eastwards tonight and there will be some locally heavy falls of rain in particular in the south of the country. A mild and humid night with temperatures falling no lower than 11 to 14 degrees in a moderate south to southwest wind.

maquiladora

Garseys wrote: »

So first CME has passed I presume?

Yep.

maquiladora

Hmmm, show might be over. According to this (http://www.universetoday.com/70294/solar-storm-update-best-times-for-viewing-aurorae/) the estimated time of the last CME arrival was :

Thursday, Aug. 5 – 2:00 a.m. EDT (0600 GMT)

alanajane

sat out last night with my mug hot chocolate but all i saw was aurora bore-me-ass-off! ah well!!

FreudianSlippers

maquiladora wrote: »

Hmmm, show might be over. According to this (http://www.universetoday.com/70294/solar-storm-update-best-times-for-viewing-aurorae/) the estimated time of the last CME arrival was :

Thursday, Aug. 5 – 2:00 a.m. EDT (0600 GMT)

Forecast is still listed as follows:

Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at unsettled to active levels until midday on day 1 (05 August). Activity is forecast to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels beginning midday on 05 August due to the expected arrival of a CME associated with a large filament disappearance on 01 August.

Perhaps that's geared more towards viewing over North America?

EDIT: On further investigation the info on that website is either a mistake, or was referring to the previous CME and not the largest (halo-CME) due to arrive midday today. spaceweather.com and other websites are still showing a 40% chance of a minor storm and 20% chance of a major storm in mid-latitudes in the next 24 hours.

BEASTERLY

Looking north last night I saw the northern lights lesser known irish counterpart, the aurora-bora-ennischorthy , intense orange glow , was amazing!;)

maquiladora

OisinT wrote: »

EDIT: On further investigation the info on that website is either a mistake, or was referring to the previous CME and not the largest (halo-CME) due to arrive midday today. spaceweather.com and other websites are still showing a 40% chance of a minor storm and 20% chance of a major storm in mid-latitudes in the next 24 hours.

You are right.

From an article today in the Reg :

According to the CfA boffins, further ion downpours can be expected at around 5pm this evening, then at 1am tomorrow morning, then at around 7am tomorrow (all times UK summer). For Brit readers fortunate enough to have cloudless skies (the forecast says that a lot of eastern England may be in luck), the 1am gust offers the only remaining chance of any visible auroral action.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/08/05/plasma_storm_update/

FreudianSlippers

Well, it's all over unless they have made a relatively big mistake (which is doubtful).

CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 30 or greater predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 91
Original Issue Time: 2010 Aug 03 1952 UTC

Comment: It appears that the two coronal mass ejections observed on 1 August
merged into one event that became geoeffective late on 3 August.

CANCEL WATCH: Geomagnetic A-index of 20 or greater predicted
Cancel Serial Number: 462
Original Issue Time: 2010 Aug 04 1605 UTC

Comment: It appears that the two coronal mass ejections observed on 1 August
merged into one event that became geoeffective late on 3 August.



On the bright side (no pun intended) it means the CME didn't hit Earth top-on and our magnetosphere did it's job quite nicely.

maquiladora

Yep, just noticed that myself. Ah well!

Until next time...

storm2811

Ah ha,that's odd,I thought it was aimed directly at us?
No northern lights so?

Any idea when it will happen again?I really wanted to see it.:(

Garseys

Guess that explains the Extended first CME then...

Until next time then?:PAC:

FreudianSlippers

storm2811 wrote: »

Ah ha,that's odd,I thought it was aimed directly at us?
No northern lights so?

Any idea when it will happen again?I really wanted to see it.:(

It was aimed directly at us, but since there is no way of visually watching the "waves" we couldn't have seen the 2 CMEs combining. It also means that while it was a direct hit to the planet, most of the energy was deflected by the magnetosphere side-on rather than top-on.

Who knows about next time, but they are saying this looks like the sun is "waking up" again - so we could see continued solar activity for a few years.