[Article] Massive Solar Shockwave Heading Towards Earth

irishdub14

This sounds fun! :rolleyes:

Nasa scientists braced for 'solar tsunami' to hit earth
The earth could be hit by a wave of violent space weather as early as Tuesday after a massive explosion of the sun, scientists have warned.

By Andrew Hough
Published: 9:00PM BST 02 Aug 2010



Sunspot 1092 may combine with a large filament of cool gas stretching across the sun's northern hemisphere to produce interference with communication systems on Earth Photo: NASA

The solar fireworks at the weekend were recorded by several satellites, including Nasa’s new Solar Dynamics Observatory which watched its shock wave rippling outwards.

Astronomers from all over the world witnessed the huge flare above a giant sunspot the size of the Earth, which they linked to an even larger eruption across the surface of Sun.

The explosion was aimed directly towards Earth, which then sent a “solar tsunami” racing 93 million miles across space.
Images from the SDO hint at a shock wave travelling from the flare into space, the New Scientist reported.

Experts said the wave of supercharged gas will likely reach the Earth on Tuesday, when it will buffet the natural magnetic shield protecting Earth.
It is likely to spark spectacular displays of the aurora or northern and southern lights.

Scientists have warned that a really big solar eruption could destroy satellites and wreck power and communications grids around the globe if it happened today.

Nasa recently warned that Britain could face widespread power blackouts and be left without critical communication signals for long periods of time, after the earth is hit by a once-in-a-generation “space storm”.

The Daily Telegraph disclosed in June that senior space agency scientists believed the Earth will be hit with unprecedented levels of magnetic energy from solar flares after the Sun wakes “from a deep slumber” sometime around 2013.

It remains unclear, however, how much damage this latest eruption will cause the world’s communication tools.
Dr Lucie Green, of the Mullard Space Science Laboratory, Surrey, followed the flare-ups using Japan's orbiting Hinode telescope.

"What wonderful fireworks the Sun has been producing,” the UK solar expert said.

“This was a very rare event – not one, but two almost simultaneous eruptions from different locations on the sun were launched toward the Earth.
"These eruptions occur when immense magnetic structures in the solar atmosphere lose their stability and can no longer be held down by the Sun's huge gravitational pull. Just like a coiled spring suddenly being released, they erupt into space.”

She added: "It looks like the first eruption was so large that it changed the magnetic fields throughout half the Sun's visible atmosphere and provided the right conditions for the second eruption.

"Both eruptions could be Earth-directed but may be travelling at different speeds.

“This means we have a very good chance of seeing major and prolonged effects, such as the northern lights at low latitudes."

A Nasa spokesman was unavailable for comment.

telegraph.co.uk

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/space/7923069/Nasa-scientists-braced-for-solar-tsunami-to-hit-earth.html

drunkmonkey

Any reason to panic?

irishdub14

Well if it does actually hit earth it should effect the weather, how much I dont know...

drunkmonkey

Does it happen often just we never knew it before? It sounds pretty serious.

Conor108

It is likely to spark spectacular displays of the aurora or northern and southern lights.

NICE!

Scientists have warned that a really big solar eruption could destroy satellites and wreck power and communications grids around the globe if it happened today.

Less nice!

M.T. Cranium

I will post any relevant updates I can find, but so far this seems like a fairly standard solar flare event, similar to what happens five to ten times each solar cycle. There would only be a slight impact on weather in terms of a slight increase in lightning frequency (based on statistical studies in the past).

The concern about a huge solar storm is rather vague, the historical event that draws the most concern happened in 1859 near the peak of a strong solar cycle. This one came during an interval of regular 11-12 year cycles quite some time after the Dalton minimum which lasted from about 1795 to 1828. The peak of 1815-16 was a weak one and could resemble the forthcoming peak. This would mean that the one analogy that we have suggests (without much confidence) that the major solar storm event that we fear is about 45-50 years in our future (but this would only be a very rough approximation).

We have clear skies here and the moon rising well after midnight, so I may have a look outside around then (it will be 0800 in Ireland) to see if there's any northern lights. Your chance of seeing them would be minimal given the cloudy weather pattern in any case.

ciaran67

Conor108 wrote: »

NICE!



Less nice!

Y2K all over again!

maquiladora

NOAA is forecasting a 10% chance of a major geomagnetic storm, 25% chance of a minor storm and 45% chance of at least some geomagnetic activity over the next 2 days.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hc6TiRke50o

BEASTERLY

I may be wrong but the last time the northern lights were visible in Ireland was October 2002 , I remember seeing them here in Wexford and that there was a big fuss about it in the local papers and on the radio.

Has it been visible here since then?

Maybe the likes of Donegal and Coleraine might get them reguarly in winter?

WolfeIRE

The Telegraph are accustomed to scaring the bajaysus out of people.

snaps

Any updates on this, i was watching Czech news earlier and they had a bit on about the northern lights the next few days, so czech is as south as us??

FreudianSlippers

Starting to see some interesting activity on the magnetometer.. not sure what it all means, but looks as if the party is starting.

FreudianSlippers

snaps wrote: »

Any updates on this, i was watching Czech news earlier and they had a bit on about the northern lights the next few days, so czech is as south as us??

Dublin is 53°20′52″N
Prague is 50°05′N

I know its pointless going out, because we are too far south, plus clouds etc, but ima go out and look anyways, fool that I am

maquiladora

Yes, it has started but dont expect to see much, at least not yet.

From a space weather expert :

"The Earth's field on the sunward side is pointing north, so the CME and the Earth will not reconnect and the geomagnetic storm will be minor. Now if the backside of the CME is well organized, its southward field might survive and connect later with the Earth's field creating a storm later on. We shall see"

maquiladora

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/rt_plots/bou_12h.html

Kp is 3.7 there.

We would need Kp between 7 and 9 for a major lightshow here in Ireland : http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/Aurora/globeNE.html ( I think? )

But there is cloudcover anyway! :pac:

sky here is greyblue west, and eastwards, its all pink. Awe-inspiring evening.

thelastshadow

I've seen the northern lights in Carlow before, can't remember when, maybe 4 or 5 years ago. Lasted a few minutes.

Wondering what time it's due to start tonight and if there's anywhere in Dublin worth going to to see it?

FreudianSlippers

Probably won't see anything here until after midnight (if at all). The magnetogram at Lycksele is starting to be all over the shop.




And, just in case anyone hasn't seen NASA's image of the CME:

Garseys

How does this rate in terms of previous solar storms that we've had?

maquiladora

Garseys wrote: »

How does this rate in terms of previous solar storms that we've had?

Kp 5 is classified as Minor. The forecast for this is Kp 4 so nothing to worry about.

FreudianSlippers

Garseys wrote: »

How does this rate in terms of previous solar storms that we've had?

Apparently (and I'm open to correction as I'm no expert) NASA has said that the sun has been in a state of "slumber" since about 2002 and this Coronal Mass Ejection may be the start of the sun "reawakening".
Either way, this is the first CME directed at our planet in a good few years.

I think they are predicting this to be a G1 scale geomagnetic storm which shouldn't cause any problems.
Tomorrow they predict Geomagnetic A-index of 30 or greater.

Garseys

maquiladora wrote: »

Kp 5 is classified as Minor. The forecast for this is Kp 4 so nothing to worry about.

Right thanks!

maquiladora

FreudianSlippers

G1 storm (Kp=5)

Power systems: weak power grid fluctuations can occur.

Spacecraft operations: minor impact on satellite operations possible.

Other systems: migratory animals are affected at this and higher levels; aurora is commonly visible at high latitudes (northern Michigan and Maine)**.

FreudianSlippers

wow, massive decrease in the northward component of the magnetic field measured in Kiruna. Dropped from about 40nT at 20:30 to about -120nT

FreudianSlippers

Update:
1) Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse recorded @ 1741 UTC. Deviation: 21 nT
2) Geomagnetic K-index reached 4 @ 2042 UTC

Stevek101

Can you explain what the change means? I'd like to know more!

maquiladora

Nosedive on that magnetogram.

FreudianSlippers

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected

maquiladora

Ok so looks like we are going to get a small magnetic storm :

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2010 Aug 03 2100 UTC
Valid To: 2010 Aug 04 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

storm2811

OisinT wrote: »

Tomorrow they predict Geomagnetic A-index of 30 or greater.

Sorry,what does that mean?
Should it cause any problems?

I'm fairly useless with weather terms and the like.:o

FreudianSlippers

Stevek101 wrote: »

Can you explain what the change means? I'd like to know more!

The lines on the graph will decrease when the magnetosphere is compressed. Sudden and dramatic decreases show a sudden storm impact.

FreudianSlippers

storm2811 wrote: »

Sorry,what does that mean?
Should it cause any problems?

I'm fairly useless with weather terms and the like.:o

nah, shouldn't do much at all.

Basically the A-index is an adjusted measurement of the K-index magnetometer measurement... it's adjusted for the geographical location of the measuring station.
A minor storm is 30+ on the A-index, major storm is 50+ and severe storm is 100+

The storm predicted for us is outlined here in my post on page 2 (here: http://boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=67261782&postcount=25 )

maquiladora

Janey mac

FreudianSlippers

maquiladora

Kiruna magentogram :eek:

FreudianSlippers

auroral oval is SO close to us... just show me the lights!

snaps

shame its so cloudy!

Typical weather :rolleyes:, can't see a thing.

maquiladora

OisinT wrote: »

Closer....

irishdub14

What should we expect to see if anything does happen?

FreudianSlippers

irishdub14 wrote: »

What should we expect to see if anything does happen?

clouds unfortunately.

Without clouds?

Solar Tsunami. As above, so below.:eek:
Just kidding , I have no idea what would happen other than satelite problems possily.

FreudianSlippers

Here are some photos from 2005, the last aurora seen in Ireland (not my pictures)










Not great quality due to clouds and light pollution.

FreudianSlippers

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2010 Aug 03 2208 UTC

Now officially a G1 geomagnetic storm. Still shouldn't pose any problems

maquiladora

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2010 Aug 03 2208 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Station: Boulder
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

As was predicted we have a minor G1 storm currently.

maquiladora

Activity is forecast to increase to active to minor storm levels with a chance for major storm levels on day 2 (05 August) due to the arrival of the halo-CME observed on 01 August (associated with a large filament disappearance).

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/forecast.html

:pac:

FreudianSlippers

What do they consider "major", G3? That's Kp 7, so we could definitely see auroras here on the 5th if that is the case

maquiladora

OisinT wrote: »

What do they consider "major", G3? That's Kp 7, so we could definitely see auroras here on the 5th if that is the case

I guess G3 and above yeah.

Just got a quick glimpse of the lights during a break in the clouds just now