Joe Bastar-di's Updated winter warning 2010-2011 for Ireland and The UK

Joe Public

I suppose if Mayo can't bring home the Sam they might as well have a go at boosting tourism. The snow is on order from China.

Deep Easterly

Joe Public wrote: »

I suppose if Mayo can't bring home the Sam they might as well have a go at boosting tourism.

Well, they have Knock for that

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeDbwtZpFo4&feature=related

km79

mayo for sam 2011:D

carlmwan

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Well, they have Knock for that

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KeDbwtZpFo4&feature=related

oh imaculate heart jesus i have trust in you:D:D:D

Deep Easterly

carlmwan wrote: »

oh imaculate heart jesus i have trust in you:D:D:D

It is amazing I think how the idea of the Divine can make people appreciate the beauty of the sky. It happens over them every day but it seems they need a greater reason to see it!

the dinner

The uk looks likely to get a wintery blast during the second half of september according to weatheroutlook uk http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

maquiladora

I think I've moved on from my summer mood now. Only a few weeks ago I couldn't look at this thread because all I was looking forward to were warm, long summer days and the chance of late summer thunderstorms, but now as we transit to autumn and the days grow shorter and the leaves change I feel that magical sense of excitement again at the prospect of an epic winter wonderland in the not too distant future... :pac:

Ramp on/off :cool:

Hal1

Kippure

CORE OF COLD PUSHES SOUTHEAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS BUT RELOADING FARTHER BACK NORTHWEST THREATENS NEW SEVERE COLD FOR NORTHWEST DEC. 14-20.
Winter's core will push farther southeast this week and while it's cold to start in the northwest, it does get milder for the late week, even above normal a few days over Ireland and much of the northern part of the United Kingdom.

IN FACT, LOOKING AT THIS, IT'S A REAL LIVE THAW COMING FOR MUCH OF THE UK AND IRELAND... but only for few days.

However, this is not the end. The pattern is very similar Dec. 14-23 to Jan. 1-10 last year. If you remember, major cold engulfed much of China, the eastern U.S. and Europe to open the new year and another round of major cold appears to be lurking in the longer term in the areas in Europe that have suffered the last two weeks. I think what we are seeing here is the evolution southeast of the core of cold so for the heart of winter, it is where it will be later this week into part of next week, but enough blocking continues to pull this cold back so another round of UK covering snow and cold may be in the works the 15th, perhaps all the way to around Christmas. The lack of the true flip (the warming coming is an island of warmth in the sea of cold) means this is likely to be the coldest December for the northwest since, well, we have to go back a long, long time.

In the meantime, by the weekend the worst cold will be in the south of Europe (relative to normal) with the core swinging from southern France into the Balkans by early next week as the northwest warms. Again, I do not have the time to post on this the way I would like too, but I felt this big ticket shift back and forth of extreme cold is something I should warn you about.

Side note: On the free site I have issued the Monday morning global ice report a day early to clear up any issues about the U.S.-based NSIDC reports. I explained this in an earlier post, but I believe as sure as the sun rises in the east that in spite of an appearance of them running a bit low, it is a question of interpretation and calculation. Above all, I want to make sure that right or wrong, I speak to the truth as I see it, and after their email to me, I see exactly what they are saying and will make sure they are referenced as yet another objective tool to use in this debate, which to me, is what this is truly all about. I would have re-done this quicker but was out of town.

For the record, I do believe a lot of the people in this great climate debate are honest brokers, even some of my most harsh critics. In any case, if we let it play out, we will get our answer over the coming years, as long as we can continue to look at all the data in an objective manner.

In the meantime, some of the things I have been saying to look for from a few years ago are showing up. Does it mean I am right? Not yet. However, it does mean I have a chance to be right, and at the very least, argue for an open mind. I think the rational person would say yes. The start of a post nino fall in the Earth's temp and some of the intrusions of cold into areas that 10 years ago had people saying cold would not show up like this any more, make my argument one that is more palatable than one that says, that by growing colder, it's a sign it's growing warmer.

pistolpetes11

Kippure wrote: »

CORE OF COLD PUSHES SOUTHEAST NEXT 5-7 DAYS BUT RELOADING FARTHER BACK NORTHWEST THREATENS NEW SEVERE COLD FOR NORTHWEST DEC. 14-20.
Winter's core will push farther southeast this week and while it's cold to start in the northwest, it does get milder for the late week, even above normal a few days over Ireland and much of the northern part of the United Kingdom.

IN FACT, LOOKING AT THIS, IT'S A REAL LIVE THAW COMING FOR MUCH OF THE UK AND IRELAND... but only for few days.

However, this is not the end. The pattern is very similar Dec. 14-23 to Jan. 1-10 last year. If you remember, major cold engulfed much of China, the eastern U.S. and Europe to open the new year and another round of major cold appears to be lurking in the longer term in the areas in Europe that have suffered the last two weeks. I think what we are seeing here is the evolution southeast of the core of cold so for the heart of winter, it is where it will be later this week into part of next week, but enough blocking continues to pull this cold back so another round of UK covering snow and cold may be in the works the 15th, perhaps all the way to around Christmas. The lack of the true flip (the warming coming is an island of warmth in the sea of cold) means this is likely to be the coldest December for the northwest since, well, we have to go back a long, long time.

In the meantime, by the weekend the worst cold will be in the south of Europe (relative to normal) with the core swinging from southern France into the Balkans by early next week as the northwest warms. Again, I do not have the time to post on this the way I would like too, but I felt this big ticket shift back and forth of extreme cold is something I should warn you about.

Side note: On the free site I have issued the Monday morning global ice report a day early to clear up any issues about the U.S.-based NSIDC reports. I explained this in an earlier post, but I believe as sure as the sun rises in the east that in spite of an appearance of them running a bit low, it is a question of interpretation and calculation. Above all, I want to make sure that right or wrong, I speak to the truth as I see it, and after their email to me, I see exactly what they are saying and will make sure they are referenced as yet another objective tool to use in this debate, which to me, is what this is truly all about. I would have re-done this quicker but was out of town.

For the record, I do believe a lot of the people in this great climate debate are honest brokers, even some of my most harsh critics. In any case, if we let it play out, we will get our answer over the coming years, as long as we can continue to look at all the data in an objective manner.

In the meantime, some of the things I have been saying to look for from a few years ago are showing up. Does it mean I am right? Not yet. However, it does mean I have a chance to be right, and at the very least, argue for an open mind. I think the rational person would say yes. The start of a post nino fall in the Earth's temp and some of the intrusions of cold into areas that 10 years ago had people saying cold would not show up like this any more, make my argument one that is more palatable than one that says, that by growing colder, it's a sign it's growing warmer.

Broken down that means ???

pistolpetes11

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Broken down that means ???

Mild weekend (above average temperatures), followed by a repeat of the cold sometime midweek witout any end in sight - cold xmas!

Guramoogah

Y'know, that Joe Bastardi writes some load of crap. I'd sooner trust Martin King. Joe wrote this on 19th October, 2010:

This years August heat wave, like 2003, coming off an el nino winter the year before, was over Russia and into central Europe,. October has been cold in much of this area and guess what, the winter will be most fierce from Euro-Russia into the Alps. Russian temps as much as 3C below normal for the winter are possible, 1-2 C below normal westward into the Alps. Most of northwest Europe will be near to a little below normal ( up to 1C below normal) while northern and central Scandinavia Scotland, and Ireland are near or a bit above normal.

Snowfall will be above normal across much of Europe with heaviest in the Alps into Russia, perhaps a bit below normal in northern areas.

To sum up, a severe winter looks to be on table from the Alps into Russia, but winter in Great Britain and Ireland will not be as severe as last year.

Yeah, right. Stick to the bodybuilding, Joe, 'cos you're useless as a weather forecaster.

BEASTERLY

Guramoogah wrote: »

Y'know, that Joe Bastardi writes some load of crap. I'd sooner trust Martin King. Joe wrote this on 19th October, 2010: Yeah, right. Stick to the bodybuilding, Joe, 'cos you're useless as a weather forecaster.

Its the 7th of december, almost three months of winter to go, January and febuary could easily be the mildest on record according to sodds law. Maybe...

gbee

BEASTERLY wrote: »

Its the 7th of december, almost three months of winter to go, January and febuary could easily be the mildest on record according to sodds law. Maybe...

Based on past early severe winters in Ireland, there is a good chance of this happening, that is to get an early and above average warm Spring # mind you that's usually followed by usually wet summer months. ??!!

Mmcd

Guramoogah wrote: »

Y'know, that Joe Bastardi writes some load of crap. I'd sooner trust Martin King. Joe wrote this on 19th October, 2010: Yeah, right. Stick to the bodybuilding, Joe, 'cos you're useless as a weather forecaster.

He made a slight mistake and corrected himself, what more can he do?

thetonynator

Mmcd wrote: »

He made a slight mistake and corrected himself, what more can he do?

At least he admits when he was wrong, unlike another long range forecaster that we're all familiar with . .( and its not M.T. )

:rolleyes:

Mmcd

thetonynator wrote: »

At least he admits when he was wrong, unlike another long range forecaster that we're all familiar with . .( and its not M.T. )

:rolleyes:

Thats certainly true. And I'm not too sure about MT. I don't think he's ever really had to correct himself :P

Kippure

European? Then You Are A-Freezing the Next Couple of Weeks

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj

Min

BigJoeBastardi
Dangerous cold to reload next week for northern and western Europe. Post on accuweather.com United Kingdom site. now: Bedtime for Bonzo

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

part of what Joe posted

PREPARATION FOR RENEWAL OF EXTREME COLD FROM FRANCE TO SCANDINAVIA AND WEST THROUGH THE UK SHOULD BE MADE.
I am hopeful ( prayerful) that the coming cold wave that will follow what thaw there is in the northwest will have the populace prepared. While it is true I have had a little fun with those that dont see eye to eye with me on the issue of AGW, the coming cold, in the wake of the stress that has already been put on the populace of the northwest part of Europe, is nothing to joke about.

Guramoogah

Min wrote: »

BigJoeBastardi
Dangerous cold to reload next week for northern and western Europe. Post on accuweather.com United Kingdom site. now: Bedtime for Bonzo

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

part of what Joe posted

PREPARATION FOR RENEWAL OF EXTREME COLD FROM FRANCE TO SCANDINAVIA AND WEST THROUGH THE UK SHOULD BE MADE.
I am hopeful ( prayerful) that the coming cold wave that will follow what thaw there is in the northwest will have the populace prepared. While it is true I have had a little fun with those that dont see eye to eye with me on the issue of AGW, the coming cold, in the wake of the stress that has already been put on the populace of the northwest part of Europe, is nothing to joke about.

:eek: Brrrrr.

Dear Santa,

Please bring me a warm ski-suit for Christmas and please, can I have a loan of your reindeers and sleigh when you've finished your deliveries?

nacho libre

Min wrote: »

BigJoeBastardi
Dangerous cold to reload next week for northern and western Europe. Post on accuweather.com United Kingdom site. now: Bedtime for Bonzo

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp

part of what Joe posted

you must have been jumping up and down as you were reading that:p

mike65

I'm going to kill myself now.

nacho libre

mike65 wrote: »

I'm going to kill myself now.

i know it's difficult being a liverpool fan these days but things will get better

mike65

If I were following Chelsea I'd top myself. No its the weather that finish me off.

woody1

jesus christ i dont know what has me more depressed, the budget or that forecast, as it is the roads are playing hell with work, life etc and i have to get a pregnant woman to a hospital an hour away sometime from the 16th december on... i look at accuweather a lot but im praying to god that their wrong this time..

gbee

woody1 wrote: »

jesus christ i dont know what has me more depressed, the budget or that forecast, as it is the roads are playing hell with work, life etc and i have to get a pregnant woman to a hospital an hour away sometime from the 16th december on... i look at accuweather a lot but im praying to god that their wrong this time..

Two things, buy some snow socks and lower the pressure in your tyres.

woody1

have the snow socks, and have been using them , havent lowered tyre pressure yet, will get a guage later this evening ..how much should come out of them

gbee

woody1 wrote: »

have the snow socks, and have been using them , havent lowered tyre pressure yet, will get a guage later this evening ..how much should come out of them

For extreme conditions a good bit usually, near flat but not so that they will come off the rims. 15PSI.

However, once clear of the snow they need to be raised again so one has to temper the necessity with the circumstances.

The snow socks should have a guide, they probably won't recommend so much pressure drop as that may interfere with the effectiveness of the sock.

Kippure

Bastardi: Europe Gets Hit by Extreme Cold


http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj

Hal1

Dam'it Joe!