Joe Bastar-di's Updated winter warning 2010-2011 for Ireland and The UK

delw

delw wrote: »

i know this is probably a stupid question but would the oil leak in the gulf of mexico have an effect on sea temps which in turn would have effect on hurricans

I suppose the black oil could absorb more solar energy, whether it'll be enough to "boost" a hurricane, who knows.

Maybe we'll find out in the next few days.

200motels

rd_milltown wrote: »

newbie here just moved from the UK and delighted to find a weather part to the board. the trend in the last few winters has been interesting - much less of the long, drawn-out westerly spells that were so common in late 80s/90s/early 00s. i'm watching with interest to see how this winter turns out...

Welcome, it's quite now but wait till the winter comes it's a madhouse here.

Min

Sagastipean wrote: »

No, obviously I didn't have any cattle, that is true. In any case, pipes can be insulated, or left dripping (not fully on, as some tried this past winter). Look on the bright side, at least you weren't driving around in muck all winter.

I did find it somewhat amusing when my neighbour's water softener, which was installed outside, froze up and cut off their water supply. What did the installer think was going to happen? In anything but a very mild winter, we're going to get at least one cold snap that will freeze it.

Water was freezing in places where it never froze before, the length of the cold weather and the sheer number of days where it freezed day and night allowed frost to penetrate surfaces where on a normal cold weather period it would not happen.
It is not normal for Ireland to have long periods of temperatures falling into double digit negative figures.

It was said on the farming forecast last Sunday week that the season so far is a month behind what a normal year would be - this is due to the sheer cold we experienced.

My brother in law left a tap running full outside to keep the water coming for the cattle, it froze up, inland Ireland got it really bad. It was an unbelieveable winter.

The winter was hardship and fine for anyone who had nothing to do out in it, ok for a short period but it went from excessive rain to excessive cold which lasted 4 months and even after that it took its time to really warm up.

Redsunset

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/jan10_lores.pdf

Kippure

SATURDAY 7 PM
JUST A NOTE ON SUMMER...

Again I have a warm summer for you this year, with precip near or a bit below normal... much more the kind of summer where you can barbecue.

I see its already pretty warm...

enjoy...


by the way... Winter looks cold again this year.. more on that later


MONDAY NOON
HEADS UP EASTERN EUROPE, BRUTAL WINTER MAY BE IN THE MAKING

A couple of notes from yours truly on the upcoming Euro winter.

I do not like the looks of this.

First of all, Northern Hemisphere ice has returned to well below normal. It will not reach the levels of 2007 as there is much thicker ice now than there was then and the turn to cooler than normal in the Arctic will occur July on. So the latter part of the ice melt season will be slower. In the meantime, a record Southern Hemisphere ice season may be in the making! Total global sea ice is currently a shade ABOVE normal.

Globally, this has been a very warm start, but the crash is coming. Last year, in spite of the cold winter I had for the states and Europe, I expected and made note of a spike in global temps. This year, global WINTER temps instead of being over .5C above normal will be near or below normal (I have -.05C) for the three-month running mean.

I am expecting much of Europe to average below normal this winter with temps as much as 3c BELOW normal in Scandinavia and south into the Balkans. Western Europe is up for grabs and may be closer to normal... not as bad as last year. Moral is the farther east you live, the worst things may be.

This is all I have for this right now, it is only June. I don't want to be mean, but that is as far as I am going right now, so I won't be answering email questions on specifics.

If you are upset that it may be cold again (although GB and Ireland may be closer to normal) a word of advice... get used to it.. more is on the way in the coming decades.
Ciao for now.




ciao for now ****

Kippure

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj


Major cooling on the Way World Wide


SUNDAY PM
Check out new video on CFS global temp forecast... Its colder than I am globally by the winter ( against the normals)

Alot of things seem to be crumbling today... the global temp is next

ciao for now *****

looking at those predictions, it appears that north western europe will have a mild winter...

Kippure

Deleted User wrote: »

looking at those predictions, it appears that north western europe will have a mild winter...

That output is very similiar to last year..and look what happened!

LOL

WolfeIRE

Kippure wrote: »

That output is very similiar to last year..and look what happened!

yes. charts are very close to last winter.

The Joe Bastardi video was great. He issues his forecasts with such conviction and confidence. He would be a good politician. You'd nearly believe him all the time

Deep Easterly

Kippure wrote: »

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj


Major cooling on the Way World Wide


SUNDAY PM
Check out new video on CFS global temp forecast... Its colder than I am globally by the winter ( against the normals)

Alot of things seem to be crumbling today... the global temp is next

ciao for now *****

He seems confident that the Arctic sea anomally will recover in the next year or so.



we are currently lower than 2007!

Kippure

Kippure wrote: »

That output is very similiar to last year..and look what happened!

last years must have been wrong then...
His maps have our parts with a warm anomoly and scandinavia

With Europe cold -that would suggest the oh nooooooooooooooooo situation occurring,with a flabby high extending from scandi out over Ireland and into the atlantic with all the cold shooting into Europe,us staying high and dry...Literally!

Kippure

TUESDAY NOON LONDON TIME.
Enjoying this summer??? Arctic Sea ice right where it should be!


Lets see, 4F above normal, precip 26%. If anything I was not warm enough and not dry enough. However fear not, we still have the rest of the summer to go and the forecast fora bit warmer, by drier than normal looks good. I hope everyone is barbecuing. And you should enjoy it, another colder than normal winter is on the way.

The site:

http://arctic-roos.org/observations/satellite-data/sea-ice/observation_images/s smi1_ice_area.png


shows my sea ice forecast this year is spot on. ( If you were reading earlier, I expected a big drop that would get it below last year but not as low as 007) And for the ministers of propaganda on this matter that dont understand how this works, you will see NEXT SUMMER has the highest amount of sea ice since the early part of last decade. Sad to say the ice will rebuild... 2 steps forward one step back.


But I have observed the cackling of delight at the demise of the ice cap this summer with amusement. Because 1) The THICKNESS OF THE ICE is greater and 2) The Polar temps, courtesy of the cooling that is starting are lower than normal this summer


http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php


all one need do is some deductive reasoning ( if you knew what was coming) and one comes up with a logical conclusion) In fact, a look at the site cryosphere today shows that amazingly the northern hemisphere sea ice, though well below normal, may have already reached its low point, and it was even to last year ( if this is right, I actually over estimated melt)


http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/IMAGES/seaice.anomaly.arctic.png


Now I will keep making forecasts from time to time, then you can judge on what is right or wrong. It seems though that either I have Rasputin whispering in my ear, or some things said months before seem to have a way of showing up. I will have to trust you were reading earlier on these matters, if not, well nothing I can do about that.

In any case enjoy your summer..another cold winter looks to be lurking and hopefully you will remember the summer barbecues this year in winter...and remember he metioned winter was going to be cold.

ciao for now ****

WolfeIRE

how does this read for Ireland does anyone know. Could he be referring to the traditional cold spots, scandanavia, central europe, US midwest/NE etc

Kippure

WolfeIRE wrote: »

how does this read for Ireland does anyone know. Could he be referring to the traditional cold spots, scandanavia, central europe, US midwest/NE etc

I think i remember him saying that western europe would be getting hit bad this year, but he wasnt sure we,d get hit in the same way due to the active hurricane season. From the present weather pattern i,d go with darkman, this winter will be equal or worse then last winter. I can see the same pattern steering down cold north easterlys from october till may next year.

We are likely to be in a weak to moderate La Nina. This is good for cold winters in this part of the world for us.


http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj

Kippure

http://www.accuweather.com/video.asp?channel=vbbastaj


More models coming on board for a cold winter.

maquiladora

Maybe its because its July 18th or maybe because my shower was frozen solid for 3 weeks last winter but for whatever reason I'm not (yet) in the mood for another cold winter. :P

Still in thunderstorm mode now and I think I'd prefer to experience some windstorms this winter instead of snow.

Looking at those maps, it appears that the British isles will have an average winter, If I'm reading it correctly.

lord lucan

Deleted User wrote: »

Looking at those maps, it appears that the British isles will have an average winter, If I'm reading it correctly.

I hope so. As much as i love a good winter storm and snow it's a pain in the proverbials commuting on a motorbike in snow and ice!

BEASTERLY

CFS is going for a slightly colder than normal December:

euT2mMon.gif

Deep Easterly

BEASTERLY wrote: »

CFS is going for a slightly colder than normal December:

euT2mMon.gif

I'd take those charts with a large dose of salt. Next update they'll no doubt show something completely different.

BEASTERLY

Deep Easterly wrote: »

I'd take those charts with a large dose of salt. Next update they'll no doubt show something completely different.

I think they were fairly correct last about last winter , could be completely different this year though. What sort of time frame does the CFS become reliable

nacho libre

It will be interesting to see what the Norwegian met service outlook is for the winter. They've been fairly reliable so far this year.

http://www.accuweather.com/video/605456718001/future-shock-brutal-winters-ahead-from-2013-on.asp?channel=vbbastaj

Combining the La Nina, cold PDO and Arctic volcanic activity says the three winters starting with 2012/2013 could be as severe as the late 1970s.

Looks like we could be in for a few cold ones, maybe we can open up a ski resort in the Wicklow mountains.

WolfeIRE

he still has yet to make his 2010-11 winter forecast yet is speaking about 2013 winter. That's like Wigan talking about competing in next year;s champions league already:D

does back up what was said in winter thread by redsunset though

Redsunset

Ah nice one had not seen that video.

I was just updating on here current La Nina status myself.

What is it Lucy Kennedy says????

Oh yeah join THE BIG SWITCH!!!!

Joe Public

Deleted User wrote: »

http://www.accuweather.com/video/605456718001/future-shock-brutal-winters-ahead-from-2013-on.asp?channel=vbbastaj



Looks like we could be in for a few cold ones, maybe we can open up a ski resort in the Wicklow mountains.

Mayo is in there first

http://www.winterolympics2026.com/

carlmwan

Joe Public wrote: »

Mayo is in there first

http://www.winterolympics2026.com/

is that for real?

carlmwan

carlmwan wrote: »

is that for real?

As real as the Muff aqua club!

Deep Easterly

carlmwan wrote: »

is that for real?

With a picture like this on it:



I have my doubts that it is.