Joe Bastar-di's Updated winter warning 2010-2011 for Ireland and The UK

Kippure

While we are all out enjoying this fine warm weather, Heres a quick heads up on next winter...

"I will tell you straight out, while winter in the US will not be as bad next year as this past one was, I am afraid Europeans are going to get another dose of arctic love... or as we climate realists like to say, a wake up call to who is actually controlling the climate.. and its not you"


http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastardi-europe-blog.asp?partner=accuweather.

Think we are looking at a new weather pattern for some time to come. Its easy to see the pattern already coming for winter, it hasnt changed and wont change.



"The warmth of summer across Europe is in question and rightfully so. The reason is something we will be dealing with for several years to come, the volcanic activity that went off over a year ago... in Alaska and Siberia. The recent Icelandic event is not a climate game changer, but the ones that went off over a year ago are probably already adding a wild card to seasonal forecasting. If one looks at what happened after the major high latitude, high altitude events of 1912, one sees the progression of cold in the seasonal weather patterns the following . We are about to see if that was just coincidence ( probably not) or something that I have labeled as a wild card in something I call the triple crown of cooling. I will tell you straight out, while winter in the US will not be as bad next year as this past one was, I am afraid Europeans are going to get another dose of arctic love... or as we climate realists like to say, a wake up call to who is actually controlling the climate.. and its not you or me. In fact the winter looks easier to see than the summer. The reversing nino and still warm AMO with plenty of warm water west and south of Europe argues strongly for enough reversal for a warm summer over the west when we total it all up. However the further east you go, the less the chance that summer is warm. For the UK and Ireland, which this site is most geared too, I look for below normal precip and above normal temps. Last summer was warm, but wet. but keep in mind the el nino was coming on and this year its going. The effects of such things averaged into the overall global circulatory pattern argues for the drier solution this summer. Much more of a barbecue summer than last, and more so in the northwest than further southeast where it looks cooler and wetter. Of concern is the volcanic activity, again please dont confuse which one, unless one of the Icelandic Big boys go off, its the previous years, and the fact that according to the esteemed Paul Hudson of the BBC ( thanks Paul) its tough to have a warm summer after a cold winter! However I am sticking the center of my cool pool southeast of the UK so I thing London, which Is where I will grade is about 1.5 F above normal ( note cooler than last summer) but has only 80% of normal precip ( note less than last summer, to say the least) Should be another summer where the Alps have less snow melt than usual. It has been snowing there of late. PLEASE NOTICE ALSO, THAT HERE WE ARE MAY 20 AND YOU ARE GETTING A WINTER OUTLOOK ALREADY! Also ground breaking here... I am doing this post from 34 thousand feet over the Tennessee valley on my way back home from speaking in Phoenix Arizona... which is why I was not at the big climate conference in Chicago May 16-18 with all my realists friends. I had several days in Houston last week, and I cant stand being away from my wife and kids, so I decided not to go this year. Another reason is I think its all over as far as the science. The battle lines are drawn so lets see who is right and who is wrong. Its that simple. No one is going to reveal anything new now, all the chips are on the table! In fact the UK Telegraphs James Delingpole hit the nail on the head with this, from his post.....

"The truth is, I said, that the scientific debate is over. The scientists on our side of the argument have won (which is why no Warmist will dare debate Richard Lindzen, and while Al Gore wont debate anyone at all: they know theyd lose). Problem is, I went on, this debate was never really about science anyway. AGW is and always have been a political process. Its the political war that were fighting now and its going to be much much harder to win..."

That is something I have been telling people who listen to me all along. Its not the SCIENCE! The argument is for all to see now and we will get our answer in the next 20 years as we now will objectively measure temps with satellites. If it cools as I believe it will, back to where we were, any rationale human being would understand that the threat of AGW was overstated. If not, then we have to continue to make sure. The most alarming thing is this..if I am right, we cool, its worse for mankind as far as energy. If I am wrong its better.. for now. The biggest problem is to the people that are now running the agenda machine.. it doesnt matter if they are wrong. They simply have used science as a smokescreen and I know that. I have known it. To me, the only thing that matters is finding the CORRECT ANSWER, for that is the only answer I have a vested interest in. But with untold billions sunk into the green revolution, and yes, if I am wrong, it would have been the thing to do, at least in spirit, and also peoples legacies on the line, if you think for one minute that science or actual data means anything to them if it doesnt agree with them, well I have some land I want to sell you in Florida ( oops that will be underwater according to Al Gore soon)

Where James is wrong is in thinking it will be much harder to win..harder is not the word, impossible is. But you still have to fight for the right answer. But the facts are clear in the political matter of the AGW ISSUE: You have a group of people whose lives are based on affecting the outcome of tomorrow on you and I , that refuse to deal with their own demons today. This is so they will be remembered as giants of the past. Its a souped up version of the "feelings over facts" mentality that permeates societies today. So dont kid yourself. I am not. There is no stopping the train now. But for someone like me, who wants my kids to look at me the way I look at my parents there is no choice but to take the stand I believe in for the SAKE OF THE FORECAST.. that is all. The other things I can do nothing about, as the political side of this is the one thing that is settled. There is no stopping it. I am writing this, and I have written it before, because in the weather, one has to deal with facts to make a weather forecast about the future, 3 hours or 3 decades from now.. As far as the politics go, I know there is no stopping this. So its the weather that is important to me here, whether I agree with the politics ( I dont, but I am not an elected official, so that matters not) or not.

For whatever you think about me, it has always been about the weather.

ciao for now *****

maquiladora

Pangea

mike65

This is a classic case for bookmarking a thread

Hal1

Subscribed, bring on the thunder snow .

Stinicker

I completely agree with this guy, last winter was only a taste of things to come. I think I'll hibernate like Dougal & Ted myself!

nacho libre

"I will tell you straight out, while winter in the US will not be as bad next year as this past one was, I am afraid Europeans are going to get another dose of arctic love... or as we climate realists like to say, a wake up call to who is actually controlling the climate.. and its not you"


http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather.

Think we are looking at a new weather pattern for some time to come. Its easy to see the pattern already coming for winter, it hasnt changed and wont change.


make it so snowgods :D

Bastardi has been right quite a few times before

darkman2

The synoptic tendancies have not changed at all really since last September - Northerly and Atlantic blocking continue - if anything the anomalies are still increasing - which makes things ominous for Winter atm and a sudden prolonged reversion to the Atlantic dominated mild and wet regime is just not on for the forseeable future.

Last Winter might seem benign compared to what may happen this Winter - last Winter was bad but could have been an awful lot worse.

Last Winter was the 5th is a successively cooling Winter thread. Each Winter in the last 5 years has been more severe then the last.

pauldry

this is a funny thread

M.T. Cranium

The winter of 2056-57 is going to be a corker.

I'm just not sure why yet.

DougL

darkman2 wrote: »

Last Winter was the 5th is a successively cooling Winter thread. Each Winter in the last 5 years has been more severe then the last.

Some may call last winter severe, I would not. If we had enough grit, it would have been much easier to deal with than the average winter which is dominated by high winds and rain.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The winter of 2056-57 is going to be a corker.

I'm just not sure why yet.

so in others words you are not putting much stock in Joe Bastardi's latest blog;)

Pangea

Sagastipean wrote: »

Some may call last winter severe, I would not. If we had enough grit, it would have been much easier to deal with than the average winter which is dominated by high winds and rain.

Dont agree with that at all now, sure we didnt have much snow last winter ,but the frost was severe and tempertures of -18 in some parts was near record breaking.
There was an ice rink outside my house for 4 weeks! It was severe.
Even if there was enough grit, the back roads are not gritted here ,so people still wouldnt of been able to leave the house regardless of whats going on in the primary routes.

rd_milltown

newbie here just moved from the UK and delighted to find a weather part to the board. the trend in the last few winters has been interesting - much less of the long, drawn-out westerly spells that were so common in late 80s/90s/early 00s. i'm watching with interest to see how this winter turns out...

Min

Agrees with Pangea.

It was a very severe winter, maybe not mountains of snow but the cold was bad. Never saw the county council on my road despite a couple of inches of ice and snow on it for several days at a time.

Remember places like Donegal and rural Ireland in general was suffering from ice and snow before Dublin was.
It was only when Dublin got a bit of ice and snow it became a national emergency.

December to the end of March was severe. The worst since the early 1960's.

We had some days where max temperatures did not get above -3C and many days that did not get above freezing point.

Deep Easterly

Sagastipean wrote: »

Some may call last winter severe, I would not.

I agree. It was a very quite winter, and while it was consistently cool, bordering on unpleasant at times, it is not a winter I will harp back on with any fond and warm memories. Of course, some nice frostscapes at times but we a capable of far better and dramatic in Ireland. Severe wintery outbreaks tend to be much shorter lived, but give me short and dramatic over long and tedious any day!

darkman2

For me locally this Winter was quite severe. Parts of the East Coast got hammered from time to time and ice and snow on the ground at the lowest levels for days on end.

The North and Northwest was more a problem of snow and ice - though not as much snow as in the East - it did remain on the ground in many places in the North and Northwest for weeks.

Other areas did not do quite so badly. Alot of the time the serious snow, ice and disruption was very localised.

And of course it brought a fair amount of comedy on the streets aswell

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I2tycWQBDb4

nacho libre

Sagastipean wrote: »

Some may call last winter severe, I would not. If we had enough grit, it would have been much easier to deal with than the average winter which is dominated by high winds and rain.

if you are use to winters in places like in inland Norway then, no, it wasn't severe. however if you judge it by irish standards it was quite severe in terms of sustained cold. this was obviously the reason there was a problem with grit, because in a normal winter the existing grit supplies would have been more than enough.

anyway i hope Joe bastardi is right about this winter and min gets as much snow as he did last year:p

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

if you are use to winters in places like in inland Norway then, no, it wasn't severe. however if you judge it by irish standards it was quite severe in terms of sustained cold. this was obviously the reason there was a problem with grit, because in a normal winter the existing grit supplies would have been more than enough.

anyway i hope Joe bastardi is right about this winter

He won't be. El Nino is forecast to decline further as the year wears on. This will have the effect of flattening out those Rossby Waves, which in turn will spur on a more zonal flow, which in turn will bring in more milder weather over Ireland.

Hope you like drizzle

jambofc

for a lot of this winter i looked on in envy at some other boardie's posting up there heavy snow pic's,in Meath or to be more accurate Trim,we had very little snow,there were no storms or anything remotely exciting,in saying that we did have 3 consecutive days of sub-zero temp's,it seemed to be from reading youre post's,that a lot of you had some incredibly heavy snow(and your pic's thanks for them all by the way)it all got to me some time's sitting lamp-post watching and nothing happening,while some of you were going on about how heavy the snow was falling :eek:
one major event for me was the heaviest shower we had lasted about 40 min's and the flakes that fell were the biggest ive ever seen(i originate from scotland)i mean ive never seen the like,in those 40 min's just under 2" fell it was my memory of the winter.
it was incredibly localised,blancharstown is only about 20 miles from me (as the crow fly's)and they got numerous heavy snowfall event's,parts of cavan had drift's of 6 feet in one dumping :eek: i will remember winter of 09/10 but not for long and will hopefully be replaced by memories of an incredibly snowy winter 10/11

oh and by the way i got burnt to a crisp today,lol

M.T. Cranium

My comment about 2056-57 was just a bit of banter, no firm thoughts here about what kind of winter 2010-11 may turn out to be.

I think it's fairly well known that Joe is a cold ramper and has predicted cold winters on a fairly regular basis through all sorts of outcomes (in western Europe that is, he's also prone to cold ramping northeast U.S. winters). I've actually met the man and shared a few forecast discussions with him back around 1979-80 when my long and winding road through the back streets of meteorology included a visit to Accu-land.

We're about the same age and I think it would be fair to say (from what I recall back then and what I've heard about since) that Joe's forecasting strong suit is medium-range (nowadays, it's hard to separate people on short-range since everyone tends to read off the same models). On the long-range, he tends to look for a spectacular outcome and then tries to build to that from whatever evidence is available. It's not an uncommon thing in long-range forecasting, because as I've found out in my own experience, few people remember when you fairly accurately call for a near-normal season, and they tend to think you're just playing safe.

But in any case, I see some logic in what DE said earlier about the fading El Nino being likely to induce a higher zonal index, which is never a good thing for cold weather in Europe. However, we are still in this 3-4 year period of quiet sun and a more robust arctic circulation. So JB could turn out to be right about this call. However, that would make three winters on the run with more cold and snow than is usual for the UK and Ireland, and that seems to be pushing things just on statistical probability alone.

One specific criticism about JB's forecast was the bit concerning volcanic dust in 1912. The problem there is that his analogue case is reversed, the very cold winter in North America was 1911-12 and the volcanic dust ramped up later in 1912. Also I don't see much happening in Europe in the period 1913-15 that would support a call for severe winters on this basis. So really I am not sure what he's saying there. He could be right that a few moderate volcanic events in 2009-2010 (in historical terms) will have their eventual impact on European winters, but 1912 is not much of a historic analogy to build on.

nilhg

Sagastipean wrote: »

Some may call last winter severe, I would not. If we had enough grit, it would have been much easier to deal with than the average winter which is dominated by high winds and rain.

Obviously you didn't have 100+ cattle in a shed with a frozen water supply last winter.:rolleyes:

Any spell of weather which deviates so much form the norm is going to cause many problems just look at the wet spell in November.

darkman2

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

My comment about 2056-57 was just a bit of banter, no firm thoughts here about what kind of winter 2010-11 may turn out to be.

I think it's fairly well known that Joe is a cold ramper and has predicted cold winters on a fairly regular basis through all sorts of outcomes (in western Europe that is, he's also prone to cold ramping northeast U.S. winters). I've actually met the man and shared a few forecast discussions with him back around 1979-80 when my long and winding road through the back streets of meteorology included a visit to Accu-land.

We're about the same age and I think it would be fair to say (from what I recall back then and what I've heard about since) that Joe's forecasting strong suit is medium-range (nowadays, it's hard to separate people on short-range since everyone tends to read off the same models). On the long-range, he tends to look for a spectacular outcome and then tries to build to that from whatever evidence is available. It's not an uncommon thing in long-range forecasting, because as I've found out in my own experience, few people remember when you fairly accurately call for a near-normal season, and they tend to think you're just playing safe.

But in any case, I see some logic in what DE said earlier about the fading El Nino being likely to induce a higher zonal index, which is never a good thing for cold weather in Europe. However, we are still in this 3-4 year period of quiet sun and a more robust arctic circulation. So JB could turn out to be right about this call. However, that would make three winters on the run with more cold and snow than is usual for the UK and Ireland, and that seems to be pushing things just on statistical probability alone.

One specific criticism about JB's forecast was the bit concerning volcanic dust in 1912. The problem there is that his analogue case is reversed, the very cold winter in North America was 1911-12 and the volcanic dust ramped up later in 1912. Also I don't see much happening in Europe in the period 1913-15 that would support a call for severe winters on this basis. So really I am not sure what he's saying there. He could be right that a few moderate volcanic events in 2009-2010 (in historical terms) will have their eventual impact on European winters, but 1912 is not much of a historic analogy to build on.

I think the pressure anomalies so far would point to a potentially very cold Winter but this is only May and time for that to change - but is there enough time for it change as dramatically as it would have to at this stage for even an average Winter? I doubt it.

Deep Easterly

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

My comment about 2056-57 was just a bit of banter, no firm thoughts here about what kind of winter 2010-11 may turn out to be.

I think it's fairly well known that Joe is a cold ramper and has predicted cold winters on a fairly regular basis through all sorts of outcomes (in western Europe that is, he's also prone to cold ramping northeast U.S. winters). I've actually met the man and shared a few forecast discussions with him back around 1979-80 when my long and winding road through the back streets of meteorology included a visit to Accu-land.

We're about the same age and I think it would be fair to say (from what I recall back then and what I've heard about since) that Joe's forecasting strong suit is medium-range (nowadays, it's hard to separate people on short-range since everyone tends to read off the same models). On the long-range, he tends to look for a spectacular outcome and then tries to build to that from whatever evidence is available. It's not an uncommon thing in long-range forecasting, because as I've found out in my own experience, few people remember when you fairly accurately call for a near-normal season, and they tend to think you're just playing safe.

But in any case, I see some logic in what DE said earlier about the fading El Nino being likely to induce a higher zonal index, which is never a good thing for cold weather in Europe. However, we are still in this 3-4 year period of quiet sun and a more robust arctic circulation. So JB could turn out to be right about this call. However, that would make three winters on the run with more cold and snow than is usual for the UK and Ireland, and that seems to be pushing things just on statistical probability alone.

One specific criticism about JB's forecast was the bit concerning volcanic dust in 1912. The problem there is that his analogue case is reversed, the very cold winter in North America was 1911-12 and the volcanic dust ramped up later in 1912. Also I don't see much happening in Europe in the period 1913-15 that would support a call for severe winters on this basis. So really I am not sure what he's saying there. He could be right that a few moderate volcanic events in 2009-2010 (in historical terms) will have their eventual impact on European winters, but 1912 is not much of a historic analogy to build on.

M.T. I wonder does the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes during the last summer and early autumn have knock on effect to what kind of winter we have here in NW Europe?

I have done absolutely no research on this but the Atlantic hurricane season (if I recall correctly) was very slack in 2009. I am just wondering would this have had some impact on the winter just passed in terms of temperatures? Since hurricanes are an important source of heat distribution and in a normal hurricane season they do transfer a lot of heat to higher latitudes so perhaps our cold winter was in part a result of this lack of normal distribution?

Atlantic hurricane season 2010 is forecast to be a lot more active so perhaps there will be more warmth hovering around higher lattitues this coming winter to keep us near or above average?

Will be interesting to hear your thoughts on this should you have any

Having said that, this heat may just keep travelling north and induce more northern blocking.

Christ, weather is complex! :D:pac:

Super_Sarko

DougL

nacho libre wrote: »

if you are use to winters in places like in inland Norway then, no, it wasn't severe. however if you judge it by irish standards it was quite severe in terms of sustained cold. this was obviously the reason there was a problem with grit, because in a normal winter the existing grit supplies would have been more than enough.

anyway i hope Joe bastardi is right about this winter and min gets as much snow as he did last year:p

I hope he's right. I hate endless Atlantic systems all winter, with endless wind and rain. Give me ice and snow any day. If we get a few more winters like that, it won't be long until everyone figures out how to cope.

DougL

nilhg wrote: »

Obviously you didn't have 100+ cattle in a shed with a frozen water supply last winter.:rolleyes:

Any spell of weather which deviates so much form the norm is going to cause many problems just look at the wet spell in November.

No, obviously I didn't have any cattle, that is true. In any case, pipes can be insulated, or left dripping (not fully on, as some tried this past winter). Look on the bright side, at least you weren't driving around in muck all winter.

I did find it somewhat amusing when my neighbour's water softener, which was installed outside, froze up and cut off their water supply. What did the installer think was going to happen? In anything but a very mild winter, we're going to get at least one cold snap that will freeze it.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

M.T. I wonder does the intensity of Atlantic hurricanes during the last summer and early autumn have knock on effect to what kind of winter we have here in NW Europe?

I have done absolutely no research on this but the Atlantic hurricane season (if I recall correctly) was very slack in 2009. I am just wondering would this have had some impact on the winter just passed in terms of temperatures? Since hurricanes are an important source of heat distribution and in a normal hurricane season they do transfer a lot of heat to higher latitudes so perhaps our cold winter was in part a result of this lack of normal distribution?

Atlantic hurricane season 2010 is forecast to be a lot more active so perhaps there will be more warmth hovering around higher lattitues this coming winter to keep us near or above average?

Will be interesting to hear your thoughts on this should you have any

Having said that, this heat may just keep travelling north and induce more northern blocking.

Christ, weather is complex! :D:pac:

if it does have a bearing, by god i hope the 2010 Hurricane season is as inactive as last year:p

M.T. Cranium

Everyone and his brother are forecasting an active tropical season, not that this is a totally reliable sign of what's coming, but it will surprise just about everyone active in that field if the season is anything less than a top 20% type of season; many forecasts are talking about a run for second or third place.

I would not need to list the winters that follow active hurricane seasons because that would be too depressing, but on the other hand, most cold winters in western Europe seem to follow low-activity seasons.

None of these teleconnections are carved in stone, there's always a first time for an oddball pair like 22 named storms and a 1740 repeat.

This year has already produced a lot of extremes in North America, which tends to suggest either a hot, humid summer with a lot of hurricanes, or something very cool and inactive, so we'll see which way the next extreme cycle goes -- but the set-up now in late May is what you'd expect before an active season. In fact, there may be a named storm later this week off the southeast coast of the USA.

delw

i know this is probably a stupid question but would the oil leak in the gulf of mexico have an effect on sea temps which in turn would have effect on hurricans