Dublin Metrolink (just Metrolink posts here -see post #1 )

lods

chooochooo wrote: »

Where did you see that logs?

Do you have a link for that infornation?

Is it something you made up logs?

Tom Manning of the RPA

monument

I started a thread on commuting and transport for anybody who wants to discuss the Dublin City Business Association and public transport.

The DCBA has a very strange list of 'council' members for a group which claims to mainly represent retailers.

@ lods -- I'm going to try not to derail this threat any further and will post a reply on the other thread.

Van.Bosch

I keep hearing that the enabling works will start next month. I assume that this requires govt approval? Is there any timeframe for this decision? I know we have a new minister but I would guess this would/should be top of the list.

I also keep hearing that we will know next month if the entire project gets the go ahead. Is a decision on the tender due in April?

Thanks

monument

Yes, it is awaiting approval or rejection of the new cabinet. Have not heard or seen when exactly that decision is expected, but it's one of many things the new government are due to decide on.

There's still a large question mark over funding. But the logic goes -- if the bidders are still in play, there's still hope of funding being secured.

Jack Noble

Metro North was discussed in the Dail last week. Not reported anywhere until I got a Google Alert on it a few minutes ago and dug out this transcript of the Dail Q&A last Thursday, March 24.

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2011/03/24/00020.asp

Question from Labour TD for Dublin North East, Tommy Broughan:

Metro North is the long proposed, 18.8km part-underground system from Dublin city centre to Swords via Dublin Airport and it is critical for developing fixed-line connectivity in the greater Dublin area and the important, growing urban region of Swords. Therefore, at the start of the 31st Dáil, it is crucial to reiterate the Labour Party’s and this Government’s commitment to delivering this wonderful commuter rail project. It is the case that the vast bulk of the projected €34 billion Transport 21 expenditure has been spent on road projects to date, with very little on public and commuter transport. Metro North is an exciting and much welcome development for my constituency, as it is for the Minister’s, and for the whole of the Dublin and mid-Leinster region. It will also form part of a crucial new commercial corridor across Dublin’s northside. Fingal County Council, in evaluating and supporting the project, has already published an impressive document,An Economic Development Strategy for the Metro North Economic Corridor, with a comprehensive plan for the economic and social development of all the Metro North area. Many business leaders in Dublin and Leinster have also been supportive of the project because of the infrastructural enhancements it will provide and its positive economic impacts. In addition, I understand that the cost benefit analyses of Metro North that were undertaken by the RPA and all five of the original bidders were very positive. The Government will shortly produce a jobs budget. In addition to enabling jobs in 2011 and 2012, Metro North will provide a desperately needed 7,000 construction jobs each year and up to 14,000 jobs in the wider economy. In general, previous research by the ESRI stated that in the long run GNP increases by €0.4 billion for every €1 billion spent on infrastructure.
Again, I congratulate Mr. Frank Allen, the chief executive of the Railway Procurement Agency for his and his staff’s ongoing successful management of this project which culminated in the granting of permission for Metro North by An Bord Pleanála last October. An Bord Pleanála’s railway order for Metro North did not accept proposals for a depot and ancillary facilities at Belinstown and a proposed line and stop at Lissenhall and these will necessitate a further planning application. In its judgment, however, An Bord Pleanála outlined a comprehensive series of proposals to accompany the Metro North project in order to address the serious concerns of local residents and small business people on the route. These included many proposed environmental and mitigation measures.
The planning permission for the key components of the project are in place and I understand there are two final bidders for Metro North, namely,Celtic Metro Group and the Metro Express consortia. A final decision on the successful bidder is to be made in April. Both final bidders have strong Irish-connected companies which should provide a significant boost to the Irish construction sector. The European Investment Bank has already approved loans of up to €500 million for the construction of Metro North. I ask the Minister to provide an update on the final bid process and on the status of the EIB loans.
Doubts have been raised over Metro North, given the current disastrous banking and economic crisis and the hysteria we faced before the recent general election. However, I believe it is essential to proceed with the project for transport connectivity and to maximise economic growth in the years ahead. When the permission was granted by An Bord Pleanála last October it was reported that €140 million had already been spent on the project and that enabling works for Metro North would cost a net €80 million in 2011, which I understand is covered in the Minister’s transport budget.
I also understand that the first implementation payment would not incur until late 2012 or early 2013 at the earliest. As this is a public-private partnership project, the cost to the public purse following the initial implementation payments will be spread over several decades. Recently completed motorways and roads have repayment periods stretching to 2052.
I was informed by the former Minister, Noel Dempsey, that if all the Transport 21 road projects, the metro and the interconnector were delivered, repayments would eventually amount to a €600 million tranche each year in the transport capital budget. The suggested CPO costs that have been widely commented upon in the media for the development of the metro were significantly inflated in the pre-election hysteria.
An exceptionally strong case remains for strongly adhering with all the preparations to build Metro North and to ensure the current tendering and construction timetables are also adhered to. I urge the Minister and the Government to give total and unqualified support to metro north.

Answer:

Minister for Transport, Sport and Tourism (Deputy Leo Varadkar): I thank Deputy Broughan for giving me the opportunity to deal with the issue this afternoon. As the Deputy is aware Metro North was included in Transport 21 as a key element of an integrated public transport strategy for Dublin. It is the spine of an integrated network connecting the proposed DART underground, existing suburban rail lines, existing and future Luas lines, the proposed metro west, Dublin Airport and the bus network. The 2011 programme for Government makes clear that this Government specifically supports the expansion in range and frequency of high capacity commuter services, subject to cost-benefit analysis and the availability of both Exchequer and private finance. I am therefore examining the major projects in my Department’s capital budget which arise from the previous Government’s national recovery plan to establish which can proceed. I am now reviewing Metro North, including the updated business case. This review will have regard to the overall cost and benefits, including the contribution in the short, medium and long term to transport objectives, its impact on investment and development in the corridor, as well as its employment creation potential.
Notwithstanding short-term disruption to the city, metro is exactly the kind of transport infrastructure I would like to see in our capital city linking our suburban towns, airport, universities and major hospitals. To proceed, however, we must be sure of the availability of several billion euro in private money under a PPP agreement, up-front Exchequer funding of well over a billion euro during the course of this Government and the State’s capacity to repay the PPP contractor considerable sums of money every year for the next 30 years. I must of course also have regard to other projects in the context of overall priorities and the funding allocation. Once this review is complete I will bring the matter before the Cabinet infrastructure sub-committee so that a clear decision can be made as to whether this project will proceed in the immediate future or be postponed.
The programme for Government also proposes the drafting of a new national development plan covering the seven years from 2012 to 2019. The plan will be based on a comprehensive study of Ireland’s public investment priorities over that period, with a particular emphasis on job creation and taking into account the realities of funding availability.
I acknowledge the work undertaken over a number of years in bringing Metro North to the current position. The procurement of Metro North as a PPP project, which commenced in 2008, is ongoing. In June 2009, the Railway Procurement Agency shortlisted two consortia, Celtic Metro Group and Metro Express, to proceed to the final stage of the PPP procurement process. A railway order has been secured and work is well under way for the main planning application for the depot, as mentioned by Deputy Broughan. The European Investment Bank has committed to supporting the project with a loan of up to €500 million.
I also know significant work and consultation have taken place with local authorities and business interests on planning, development and how to undertake the works while keeping the city open for business. In my review I want to assure the Deputy that I will have full regard to the benefits of Metro North, especially that it will carry in excess of 36 million passengers annually at peak; shorten the journey time from Swords in my constituency to the city centre considerably; link universities, hospitals, key retail and employment centres in the city centre, as well as Dublin Airport; generate approximately 4,000 direct jobs and thousands of spin-off jobs; connect with Connolly to Maynooth line and Luas lines to Dundrum and Cherrywood; and act as a catalyst for significant inward investment in the Metro North economic corridor stretching from Ballymun to north of Swords, including Dublin Airport.

Sine e. Read what you will into all that.

markpb

Jack Noble wrote: »

Sine e. Read what you will into all that.

Different minister, same script writers :-)

DWCommuter

To proceed, however, we must be sure of the availability of several billion euro in private money under a PPP agreement, up-front Exchequer funding of well over a billion euro during the course of this Government and the State’s capacity to repay the PPP contractor considerable sums of money every year for the next 30 years.

If anyone cares to remember, this was the issue I continually highlighted here and to some derision from other posters who refused to accept that a PPP still costs substantial sums of money. But it was always the simple fact of the matter. PPPs are not the answer to all our problems and Government thinking will always be on the side of reluctance when it comes to rail projects via the PPP route particularly in a recession. I fear we left it too late and the political culture still hasn't evolved.

dubhthach

markpb wrote: »

Different minister, same script writers :-)

Well the civil servants remain the same no matter who wins the election

Jack Noble

A few interesting snippets in there, all the same.

From Broughan:

I was informed by the former Minister, Noel Dempsey, that if all the Transport 21 road projects, the metro and the interconnector were delivered, repayments would eventually amount to a €600 million tranche each year in the transport capital budget.

I don't recall that figure being mentioned before - does anyone else?

And from Varadkar:

To proceed, however, we must be sure of the availability of several billion euro in private money under a PPP agreement, up-front Exchequer funding of well over a billion euro during the course of this Government and the State’s capacity to repay the PPP contractor considerable sums of money every year for the next 30 years.

Again, this may be new in that I don't recall a minister ever mentioning such a figure before. Again, does anyone else?

The Greens used €700m as the cost of Metro North in their pre-election, 2011-2014 Budget document. "Life of the govt" implies to Feb 2016 so that suggests the Green figure is correct but additional State funds are required beyond 2014.

Hard to know what to take from Varadkar's answer. On the one hand he clearly favours Metro North proceeding but on the other, he has enough caveats in there to allow the government to postpone/cancel on financial grounds.

I'd say it's 50/50 at this stage whether Metro proceeds - and it may all hinge on whether the Govt can sort out the bank debt/sovereign debt crisis by the summer. If it can, I can see Metro going ahead, if it can't, Metro is in the bin.

monument

DWCommuter wrote: »

If anyone cares to remember, this was the issue I continually highlighted here and to some derision from other posters who refused to accept that a PPP still costs substantial sums of money. But it was always the simple fact of the matter. PPPs are not the answer to all our problems and Government thinking will always be on the side of reluctance when it comes to rail projects via the PPP route particularly in a recession. I fear we left it too late and the political culture still hasn't evolved.

What you quoted has always been the case, the green light has always depended on funding.

Many posters -- both pro and anti metro -- have said this, time and time again.

dynamick

Jack Noble wrote: »

A few interesting snippets in there, all the same.

From Broughan:

...[€600m annual payment for PPPs]...


I don't recall that figure being mentioned before - does anyone else?

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2010/06/23/00015.asp
(last two paras)

Jack Noble

dynamick wrote: »

http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2010/06/23/00015.asp
(last two paras)

Thanks. Never saw that before. Don't recall it ever reported in the media. Must pay more attention to Dail debates on Oireachtas website than rely on media to report what is said.

Tech3

I was informed by the former Minister, Noel Dempsey, that if all the Transport 21 road projects, the metro and the interconnector were delivered, repayments would eventually amount to a €600 million tranche each year in the transport capital budget.

Yes in hindsight, sure half the T21 road projects have been postponed and those PPP's that were built were not shadow tolls but we will have to stump up costs for low level AADT than expected hard toll roads such as the Limerick Tunnel and M3. I cant see where a sum of €600 million comes from.

How much is it estimated to costing the state per year to pay back on Metro North if built?

dynamick

kildarestreet.com is easier to read than oireachtas.ie

Aard

Jack Noble wrote: »

The Greens used €700m as the cost of Metro North in their pre-election, 2011-2014 Budget document.

I don't think the Greens ever said that it'd cost only €700m, even the part of it to be paid during their expected government tenure. That 700 figure, iirc, was something that was read into too deeply by posters here and the media, and was nothing concrete, and definitely not a final-cost sum.

Jack Noble

Aard wrote: »

I don't think the Greens ever said that it'd cost only €700m, even the part of it to be paid during their expected government tenure. That 700 figure, iirc, was something that was read into too deeply by posters here and the media, and was nothing concrete, and definitely not a final-cost sum.

The Greens said €700m to complete Metro North in a budget document for 2011-2014 and quoted in the Indo and Times. That figure was not used again and was certainly not used in their manifesto.

monument

Jack Noble wrote: »

The Greens said €700m to complete Metro North in a budget document for 2011-2014 and quoted in the Indo and Times. That figure was not used again and was certainly not used in their manifesto.

The €700m may have been an estimate of what the state will / would have paid up front?

DWCommuter

Tech3 wrote: »

How much is it estimated to costing the state per year to pay back on Metro North if built?

People tend to mix up the direct construction cost of MN with the total bill for the project. Assuming the direct construction cost that is PPP is around €2 billion (2003 figure) then use that figure to work out the repayments over 30 years. In 2003 the interest calculated was 700 million approx. on top of the 2 billion. I'd say thats higher now.

Below are the figures from the 2003 OBC as quoted by Frank Allen. The RBC took a further 200 million off the 4.8 billion. From where, I don't know.

The 4.8 billion figure was subsequently broken down by the RPA to reveal that the direct construction costs were 1.72 billion, but added to this were risk and insurance costs of 903 million, cost escalation components of 811 million, VAT of 458 million, PPP interest of 676 million and financial and legal costs of 313 million. This brings it to 4.8 billion approx.

The Greens said the state needed to inject another 700 million on top of the PPP repayments. LV now claims its over a billion.

DWCommuter

monument wrote: »

What you quoted has always been the case, the green light has always depended on funding.

Many posters -- both pro and anti metro -- have said this, time and time again.

Agreed Monument, but the point Im continuing to make is that some people ignore the dire financial situation in this country and think that we can afford the upfront costs and the repayments on the PPP part of the project. That's the grenade that lurks in Government buildings.

blarney_boy

Can we also remember that port tunnel cost 50% more than the initial estimates (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/port-tunnel-cost-euro804m-50pc-more-than-budget-2597012.html), if the current estimates for Metro North are 2 billion, can we assume the final cost will be around 4 billion?

dubhthach

Port Tunnel was built before the introduction of fixed price tendering. There was similiar huge overruns on other projects up to that time such as the "South East" part of the M50. However most of the interurbans were on a fixed price, as a result you ended up getting them built on time and generally under-budget.

Jack Noble

DWCommuter wrote: »

People tend to mix up the direct construction cost of MN with the total bill for the project. Assuming the direct construction cost that is PPP is around €2 billion (2003 figure) then use that figure to work out the repayments over 30 years. In 2003 the interest calculated was 700 million approx. on top of the 2 billion. I'd say thats higher now.

Below are the figures from the 2003 OBC as quoted by Frank Allen. The RBC took a further 200 million off the 4.8 billion. From where, I don't know.

The 4.8 billion figure was subsequently broken down by the RPA to reveal that the direct construction costs were 1.72 billion, but added to this were risk and insurance costs of 903 million, cost escalation components of 811 million, VAT of 458 million, PPP interest of 676 million and financial and legal costs of 313 million. This brings it to 4.8 billion approx.

The Greens said the state needed to inject another 700 million on top of the PPP repayments. LV now claims its over a billion.

DWC

Isn't the point of the competitive tendering process to reduce all those costs - not just the construction costs? If the construction costs have fallen by circa 30% to 40%, surely the risk and over-run elements will fall by a commensurate amount, of not further? Also the squeeze has been put on legal costs so I cannot see such a massive legal bill forming part of the final contract. Finally, VAT will be a net benefit to the State.

This is the €5bn/€4.8n figure used by Frank McDonald which has led the of-quoted "€5bn Metro North project".

And someone - whether RPA or DoT - leaked figures of €3.7bn falling by one third to a final bill of €2.5bn to the Independent last September.

http://www.independent.ie/national-news/metro-cost-falls-by-onethird-2371946.html

THE Metro North light-rail system linking Dublin city centre with the airport and Swords will cost €2.5bn, a third less than expected.
And although the project has yet to be given the green light by government, the Railway Procurement Agency (RPA) has spent €175m to date buying land, carrying out pre-construction work and planning the line.
The project was expected to cost €3.7bn but bidders are providing estimates much lower than anticipated, sources said.
This is partly due to an across-the-board reduction in costs and a lack of major projects across the EU at construction stage.
"The cost of metro systems varies between €100m and €200m per kilometre; we expect this to cost about €2.5bn (€138m per kilometre)," one source said.

But you are right about the upfront costs to the State and the interest bill - if private sector funding is available and that is the big unknown at present.

While Metro North is factored into the 2011-2014 four-year plan agreed with the IMF/EU, will it survive - can it survive - lower than expected growth rates and falling tax revenues? That's just as big a question as whether PPP funding is available.

While, I'm a big supporter of Metro North - and Dart Underground - I am realistic enough to accept that Metro cannot go ahead if the fiscal situation deteriorates much more. It's already touch and go as it is.

Empire o de Sun

blarney_boy wrote: »

Can we also remember that port tunnel cost 50% more than the initial estimates (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/port-tunnel-cost-euro804m-50pc-more-than-budget-2597012.html), if the current estimates for Metro North are 2 billion, can we assume the final cost will be around 4 billion?

Let's not build anything, the cost will always overrun!!!

etchyed

blarney_boy wrote: »

Can we also remember that port tunnel cost 50% more than the initial estimates (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/port-tunnel-cost-euro804m-50pc-more-than-budget-2597012.html), if the current estimates for Metro North are 2 billion, can we assume the final cost will be around 4 billion?

No.

DWCommuter

Jack Noble wrote: »

DWC

Isn't the point of the competitive tendering process to reduce all those costs - not just the construction costs? If the construction costs have fallen by circa 30% to 40%, surely the risk and over-run elements will fall by a commensurate amount, of not further? Also the squeeze has been put on legal costs so I cannot see such a massive legal bill forming part of the final contract. Finally, VAT will be a net benefit to the State.

This is the €5bn/€4.8n figure used by Frank McDonald which has led the of-quoted "€5bn Metro North project".

And someone - whether RPA or DoT - leaked figures of €3.7bn falling by one third to a final bill of €2.5bn to the Independent last September.



But you are right about the upfront costs to the State and the interest bill - if private sector funding is available and that is the big unknown at present.

While Metro North is factored into the 2011-2014 four-year plan agreed with the IMF/EU, will it survive - can it survive - lower than expected growth rates and falling tax revenues? That's just as big a question as whether PPP funding is available.

While, I'm a big supporter of Metro North - and Dart Underground - I am realistic enough to accept that Metro cannot go ahead if the fiscal situation deteriorates much more. It's already touch and go as it is.

Yep its how FMD got the 5 billion figure (it was publically available since 2003 anyway.) and its really the only one we've ever had any actual confirmed detail on. Since then its all been shrouded in mystery. I agree the other costs should be falling as well, except the interest rate. However the Government/RPA know the real costs. The direct construction costs of the PPP do not cover everything, so even if a bid was accepted and the consortiums figure was revealed, it would not be the actual cost of MN. Its important that people understand this.

So the problem is twofold. The cost of the PPP and the cost of upfront monies from the state. LV has finally alluded to that and its about time. Personally I think his response is the start of the end. The fiscal situation is extremely bad and its easy for people to think that 100 million (for example) per annum is easy to handle on a PPP project. Combine that with the political attitude to rail projects over road and the net result is pretty much what Ive been saying - MN will not happen Of course I always add that I could be wrong.

It will be an unmitigated disaster if its not pushed forward and will also spell the very end for DU. One final scenario that I wouldn't rule out (but highly unlikely) is the postponement of MN and in an attempt to look like they are prioritising projects, claim DU is to be brought forward. A real buying time exercise, because DU will suffer from the same problems.

Nothing surprises me anymore. We pissed away billions and got very little. Prepare yourselves. Thats all I can say. The signs don't look promising.

Aard

blarney_boy wrote: »

Can we also remember that port tunnel cost 50% more than the initial estimates (http://www.independent.ie/national-news/port-tunnel-cost-euro804m-50pc-more-than-budget-2597012.html), if the current estimates for Metro North are 2 billion, can we assume the final cost will be around 4 billion?

...50% more than €2bn is €3bn

Jack Noble

DWCommuter wrote: »

Nothing surprises me anymore. We pissed away billions and got very little. Prepare yourselves. Thats all I can say. The signs don't look promising.

TBH, that was my first instinct when I read Varadkar's Dail reply to Broughan.

A second reading gave me a little more hope - but not much. But we'll know soon enough.

lods

I would just like a decision rather than all this double speak . I've no doubt FG and LV know what their going to do & all this seems like an illusion of examining the project . As bertie would say, it's all smoke and daggers!

Pete_Cavan

dubhthach wrote: »

Port Tunnel was built before the introduction of fixed price tendering. There was similiar huge overruns on other projects up to that time such as the "South East" part of the M50. However most of the interurbans were on a fixed price, as a result you ended up getting them built on time and generally under-budget.

It is true that cost and time over-runs have largely been eliminated since the introduction of fixed price lump sum contacts but MN will not be built under the new Public Works Contracts. Under the PPP, the design and build elements of the contract will limit the governments exposure to risk and put the risk of increasing construction costs onto the winning consortium.

Tech3

Jack Noble wrote: »

Isn't the point of the competitive tendering process to reduce all those costs - not just the construction costs? If the construction costs have fallen by circa 30% to 40%, surely the risk and over-run elements will fall by a commensurate amount, of not further? Also the squeeze has been put on legal costs so I cannot see such a massive legal bill forming part of the final contract. Finally, VAT will be a net benefit to the State.

The figures were given from 2003 so I dont think constuctions costs were that much more between now and then. 05/06 was the peak time of construction costs.

The interest of €600 million - €1 billion on the loan repayment is excessive but I think more importantly how much will be generated in passengers sales per year and revenue generated from the created jobs during constuction. Some may think this is only miniscule compared to the crazy bank debt we have and this is at least improving the countrys infrastructure and getting many people off the dole. For me I'm still undecided whether this should be a priority right now but it sure as hell is better than pouring capital into our toxic banks.