PyRo's Horse Bets.

ft9

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Do you think you've got many non member followers Pyro?

Loads I'd say.

How long did you lurk here before registering, about a year for me anyway.

Post up a write up for the 2nd fav Pyro and let the lurkers bring him in driving takajan back out to 6's and 7's:D

SteelyDanJalapeno

Here nearly 4 years, cant remember if I was a lurker!

zimmermania

x PyRo wrote: »

Would do the same myself but hopefully they'll just plow on at 7/2! Didn't expect the price to disappear so much.

I would expect this animal to start at a bigger price than 7 to 2,xPyRo is all about value and the value no longer exists with this one,it might open at 4s and drift out to 6s.Its a competitive low grade handicap with a lot of in and out performers.If a race like this was run 4 or 5 times you mighy get a different result each time.

mickey1979

I would think maybe a couple of 100 drove this in. I would think this will not be off if owners can't get a price.

x PyRo

zimmermania wrote: »

I would expect this animal to start at a bigger price than 7 to 2,xPyRo is all about value and the value no longer exists with this one,it might open at 4s and drift out to 6s.Its a competitive low grade handicap with a lot of in and out performers.If a race like this was run 4 or 5 times you mighy get a different result each time.

Would imagine connections wouldn't be too arsed about long-term value if they're intentionally getting an individual horse well-handicapped in order to land a punt on any given day (not saying they won't want a bigger price to get their cash on at). I agree that he'll be going out in price anyway (even though I think he's still value at 7/2, if trying; not max bet territory obviously).

If this race was run 4 or 5 times, I'm sure Takajan would be winning a couple of them if he raced prominently (and was tuned for it). He's a very useful Southwell horse when ridden up with the pace, so he's thrown in off 57 with SDS up in a C6 and it's not much of a contest, despite the size of the field (only one of the runners would bother me). He'll win around this C&D when they have him ready to strike, I'm just not sure when that'll be and he wasn't "going all out to win" when Hugh put him up a couple of runs ago.

restingpilgrim

I would suggest with your following now and only two bookies that I saw having priced up, being a five point bet and probably a lot of callers trying to back a horse when they would be expecting loads of calls and internet bets to be on the football on a Monday night it has spooked bet 365 into worrying someone was trying to take their 100 million plus profits !!



Also expect this race not to be put up early in the morning due to the brave bookies having to wash the skidmarks out of their boxers

restingpilgrim

See this is also a case of the Jones' keeping up with you LOL

thesandeman

None of my bookies priced it up so couldnt get on :-(
Hopefully Hugh might oppose it in the morning and the price might drift a bit.

LANOOCHUDLE

..i think " yours " has a massive chance,and was 4/1 fav and now moved to 11/2 thanks to the move on takajan who will " pulled " for another day

kryogen

Since I couldnt get on at the earlier price (why did you put it up so early mate???)

I hope he does get pulled for another day, best price I can find now is 10/3 so thinking about going with Ryan @ 11/2

zimmermania

x PyRo wrote: »

Would imagine connections wouldn't be too arsed about long-term value if they're intentionally getting an individual horse well-handicapped in order to land a punt on any given day (not saying they won't want a bigger price to get their cash on at). I agree that he'll be going out in price anyway (even though I think he's still value at 7/2, if trying; not max bet territory obviously).

If this race was run 4 or 5 times, I'm sure Takajan would be winning a couple of them if he raced prominently (and was tuned for it). He's a very useful Southwell horse when ridden up with the pace, so he's thrown in off 57 with SDS up in a C6 and it's not much of a contest, despite the size of the field (only one of the runners would bother me). He'll win around this C&D when they have him ready to strike, I'm just not sure when that'll be and he wasn't "going all out to win" when Hugh put him up a couple of runs ago.

Best of luck with it.

x PyRo

Kryo, I seen him move from 9's into 7's and then panicked to get him posted up so nobody'd miss the price. In the end, it's likely to have been a monumental fuck up but at least I'll learn for again!

Cheers Zimmer, just hoping for an honest run now! Although if I don't get one of those, it serves me damn right for being an idiot.

---

Here goes nothing and apologies in advance! (absolutely hate when I've a maximum bet - I always look like a clown when they lose)

12:00 Southwell - Takajan - 5pts @ 7/1 (Bet365)

With 14 runners set to go to post for this C6 sprint handicap, you'd expect that it'd be quite a difficult task to find a bet. However, the vast majority of the runners aren't appealing to me at all and Takajan, a horse who I've selected quite a few times (and got a win out of), is by far the most interesting of the lot. His chances are completely dependent on how he's ridden, as he's not the type who can come from behind and this track doesn't suit that type of animal anyway. He needs to be right up there from the outset in order to be seen at his best and with a bit of luck, that'll be the case here for Mark Brisbourne's charge.

Takajan comes here on the back of a couple of eye-catching outings at this track, one being over today's trip and the other being over 7f. His penultimate run was the one that came over 7f and it was his first attempt over that trip for quite a while. I had expected that it would suit and backed him at 14's the night before. He was strong in the market anyway but then Hugh Taylor tipped him up and the price began to fall, hitting 5/1 at it's lowest. However, he began to drift and was very weak in the market, eventually going off as a 12/1 shot and ran accordingly (dwelt, held up, ran on late into modest 7th place).

Connections then brought Takajan back to his favoured trip of 6f last time out but again, he was held up right out the back under the guidance of an inexperienced apprentice. He came very wide into the straight before running on well up the rail and was never nearer than at the finish, shaping as if he was in good order. The handicapper has dropped Brisbourne's 4-year-old gelding by 3lbs for that run and he's now lining up to race off an 8lb lower mark than when victorious in a much better race than this over C&D in February, which is an obvious positive.

Takajan is also 3lbs lower than when winning on this exact day last year. That race was also a fair way tougher than what he faces today and if he's in the same mood, I'm sure that he'll win. All of his 3 C&D wins have come when racing up with the pace and it'll be fairly obvious straight after the off whether he's trying or not. If he's up there, it could be the day and if he's held up, it won't be. Regardless, it's interesting that connections have made the rare booking of Silvestre De Sousa and that's an obvious plus. On the other side of the coin, the form of the yard isn't great at all but the majority of their runners have been relatively unfancied and have run accordingly. At least this fellow has shown that he's ready to come to hand and could do so if given the opportunity to run up to his best.

The big risk is whether Takajan is going to be primed and ready to win here, as despite the fact that he has shortened considerably since I first posted at 7's, connections wouldn't have got on board and it wouldn't take much money to move the market the night before. He has moved from 9/1 into as short as 10/3 now and if the yard were planning on having a nice punt, I doubt that they'll be one bit happy. There's a couple of scenarios from here; he'll either be declared a non-runner in the morning or he'll drift in the betting, get held up in rear and run another modest, yet slightly eye-catching race with the intentions of going for broke on another occasion. The best scenario would be if he was trying, because I think he'd sluice in then!

Kevin Ryan's Yours is the only one I'd be quite worried about but she didn't overly appeal at the price and hasn't run for quite some time, so she's not without risks either. The rest are a fairly modest bunch. Takajan is hardly a brilliant horse either but he has run a number of eye-catching races in the past couple of months and have a lovely draw in stall 7 (14 of last 15 C&D races won by stall 6 or higher). He's also very well-handicapped on various showings at this track and has one of the best jockeys in the country on board. If he's going for it, I'm sure that he'll run a cracker and justify why I thought maximum stakes at 7/1 was the correct call. There's a chance that he won't be having his day though and I'll look like a clown after the race but I'm used of that now! 10/3-7/2 doesn't appeal at the moment given the obvious risks (it would if I knew he was trying) but it'll be very interesting to see how it all pans out. I'll know my fate within a couple of strides and if he's up there from the off, at least there's a chance that he'll have a say in proceedings. Hopefully he'll go well.

bradlente

Jesus,Just reading your post now.Hes been back into 3s and 4s already!madness.

mark and lard

if the horse is ready to win they cant keep pulling him , the books are well aware of this hosre now so the price will be on there radar for a while , might as well smash it today if they fancy it.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

............... If he's up there, it could be the day and if he's held up, it won't be. .....................

Best of luck with the selection, interestingly (ish) I once read a book about gambling/betting etc and the author essentially used the book as a gambling log over the course of a season, he reckoned that in many cases trainers and connections had little clue what sort of tactics, course etc suited their horses. I'm not saying this is the case with Takajan but your post there just reminded me of that book

If they were planning a gamble on it today, going from what Barney Curley put in his book there's a good chance they'll be rethinking due to the price crash. Unless of course they're already on, which might well be the case

Woddle

I fancied Suddenly Susan, may have to do a w/o bet now
Keep up the good work

Caveman1

Takajan 5/2 with pp now, does anyone know roughly how much money would be backed on this horse for a price to drop from 7-1 to 5/2 ??

zimmermania

Ican see it now,punters around the country lined up at the counters clutching Takajan dockets and watching intently as the stalls open,he misses the kick and the crumpled docket falls to the floor.If he jumps off smartly you get on.Idid it myself many a time with dodgy starters.Iwill be glued to the screen myself,though i will give the race a swerve.

Caveman1

Caveman1 wrote: »

Takajan 5/2 with pp now, does anyone know roughly how much money would be backed on this horse for a price to drop from 7-1 to 5/2 ??

No easy answer to that, on course at a decent meeting quite a lot. Early prices are a tad different, last night if only one or three bookies had the race priced up a quite small amount of cash would have led to the price shortening, the others then price their markets accordingly.

I've been at meetings and watched thousands (across a good few bookies) being taken on 3/1 shots and the price moving to 5/2 taking quite a while.

Takajan 4.7 on Betfair so anyone taking 5/2 off PP shouldn't be betting really.

mike65

Drifting out 4.00 on pp now. Footstepsofspring is the new darling in the market.

now 4.50 nobody wants PyRos picks!

UrbanSea

New fav was as high as 18/1 this morning. More than one gamble in the race

plasteritup

footstepsofspring and takajan the only horses at meet for respective yards? culhane 1 other ride on an outsider,want to lump on takajan but dont know what to do?

mike65

You could back both on the PP insured win market (and hope both at least place.)

plasteritup

UrbanSea wrote: »

New fav was as high as 18/1 this morning. More than one gamble in the race

first show was 25 on atr website

plasteritup

xxxx it,gone with takajan:)

Slattsy

Thats a huge gamble on Footstepsofspring !!!!
If it was 25's this morning this could be one hell of a coup.


Takajan opens at 6's !!

x PyRo

Wasn't trying. Sorry lads.

argosy2006

x PyRo wrote: »

Wasn't trying. Sorry lads.

Finished full of running, Not been honest i think

plasteritup

looked liked he tried alrite,horse just no good!!!:)

newuser89

Only seen this thread.have i missed much tips lol.
Great tipping going on from what ive gone through