The C Kid - In the Well

The C Kid

H8GHOTI wrote: »

I've seen your views in the BBV a few times about X Factor. About Simon Cowell manipulating it etc...
Could you expand on that a bit?

Firstly I love Simon Cowell, man is an absolute hero. It's his show so he can do pretty much whatever he wants with it. 95% of everything you see is his call imo, from judges to song choices to running orders. Everything you read in the papers is from what he and Clifford decide to leak/let run. Take the story about JEDWARD topping the vote one week, I would imagine this was completely false but Cowell just needed to quell the "underdog" storm that was brewing will be very interesting to see the voting at the end of the series. Also someone posted an excellent analysis on a forum i read about the show's bias to the twins in pure terms of the running order slots they got. It's a multi-million pound industry so he's not going to completely let it be randomly judged by the great unwashed.


Like to what extent to you think it's rigged? How is it manipulated or how much influence do the judges (well particularly Simon) have over the public vote? I think you also mentioned he sacrificed Jamie. What you mean by that?

Choreographed is a better word than rigged, like I don't think they change vote counts etc, but they do everything in their power to ensure their "chosen ones" get the votes. It's common sense though in that it ensures better TV and keep people watching. I think he sacrificed Jamie in that he got a poor song and a poor slot. Cowell also seems to give his acts testing weeks where he tries them with a bad slot/bad song to see how their public will vote. With Jamie there were plenty of rumours of bust-ups, he probably wasn't polling great, and Cowell just decided to let him sink or swim. Luckily for us the Afro-twat failed miserably.

Thanks & good read so far.


Cheers,

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The C Kid

mocata wrote: »

Do you think that your current lifestyle's short bursts of mental effort will translate well into the constant concentration/state of semi-fear running your own business entails?

No. But I'd like to think I'm pretty smart and my old man has been running his own business for 15 years and is a big inspiration to me. He's got an amazing work ethic and money management and I admire it greatly, with his advice hopefully I'll be ok. If I had his work ethic in terms of poker/punting and his money-management in terms of life I'd be infinitely better off than I am now.

It's a long way off, I want to finish a college course first!

The C Kid

Mellor wrote: »

Thanks for this,

No worries.


I have a slight interest in specials myself, mostly because I reckon then are hugely influenced the the unwashed masses. However, I don't punt very high, and certainly don't do a huge amount of research.
However, I did let my bet on JEDWARD run a week too far before laying it off and I am in the red for the market. Any suggestion on how to get it out?

Side with Lloyd in the outright and elimination market this week. Don't worry about being red on Stacey. She can't win.

Do you do much or any UFC betting?

Don't really watch it. All a bit too manly for me.

What made you choose The C(isco?) Kid as a username?

First poker username. Massive Cincinnati Kid and McQueen fan. Still the best movie about poker ever made.


Seeing as films/horses/albums etc was done.
What are your top 5 books

Fooled By Randomness
Freakonomics
Skint by Mick O'Farrell
Outliers
Beyer On Speed

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The C Kid

toHex wrote: »

great read and great humour, thanks!

Cheers.

would recommend Idioterne over Breaking the Waves for Lars von Trier films. It will help you bring out your inner spa.

Will check it out soon. Thanks.

which would you prefer?
(a) a good facial
(b) busting the nuts

yeah I put them in the wrong order

Ban for awful puns.

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The C Kid

Antonella Rich Taster wrote: »

Good well

1. Biggest bet misclick (either numerical or selection:) ) and what was the background?

Can't remember any really, remember one bet winning where I missed the kick off for a game and the other two selections won so probably that. It's pretty hard to make a mistake online i find.


2. Now STS is gone what do you see as being the next "Money Printing Machine"

Don't think you'll see anything like that for a while. I'm looking forward to Special Duty and would love to see St Nicholas Abbey being as good as he looked as I have a mild APOB obsession.


3. What teams have you been religiously punting on this season in your football singles.

Everton for couple of game stretch were overpriced imo but on current form maybe i was wrong, Livingston, Aldershot, Eastern European Sides in Europe. Preston at home for Latest Score lol. I definitely think that having six - ten teams that you follow religiously either backing/opposing is the best way for the casual football punter to enjoy and be semi-profitable at their punting.

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The C Kid

k101 wrote: »

you said in one of your earlier posts that you chat with various guys who are in the top 5pc of punters in various sports. How do you know they are? How did you meet them ?

Obviously I have no way of knowing this for sure, but on turnover and my own impression of their knowledge. Through various forums and then getting introduced through friends etc.

What did you make of Brohamers book Modern Pace Handicapping. did you try and apply it to english turf racing or aw racing. any joy?

Really enjoyed it. It's a great read. More technical than Beyer but plenty that can be adapted to your specific needs. Helped my overall understanding rather than one piece that just jumped out that I used.

Do you think its worth bothering with speed ratings over jumps?

Speed ratings will be of assistance for 90% of racing. Having decent standard times is the key, this can be heartbreaking at times and why it's so hard and so much work to keep up with. Just moving the rails 5m in/out can make it impossible. However just doing your own ratings/putting in the time is going to benefit you as you are always building on your own knowledge and becoming more familiar with patters/horses/trainers etc. I'd never rely on speed figures solely. I love reading Mordin just as must as I enjoy reading Topspeed. He comes out with some really left-field theories and sometimes I LOL at them like alot of the naysayers but once or twice he just comes up with something that makes you go, oh actually that's quite an interesting angle.

What are the best 5 gambling/horseracing books you have read ?

As I've said my interest in racing is nowhere near where it was, so these might all be slightly dated but

Beyer On Speed
Mordin On Time
Brohamer
Betting Thoroughbreds For The 21st Century BY Steve Davidowitz
Fooled By Randomness.




top 5 resources for punters on the internet ?

Forums, videos, form analysis programmes, oddschecker (and the like), exchanges.

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The C Kid

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Your right about this Robert Robertson character, he may be the best character in all of tv land

Yep, he was awesome today again. His Penang Bay cock-fighting gambling story was superb.

mocata

The C Kid wrote: »

No. But I'd like to think I'm pretty smart and my old man has been running his own business for 15 years and is a big inspiration to me. He's got an amazing work ethic and money management and I admire it greatly, with his advice hopefully I'll be ok. If I had his work ethic in terms of poker/punting and his money-management in terms of life I'd be infinitely better off than I am now.

It's a long way off, I want to finish a college course first!

I am not inferring that you are gonna be a slacker, but i have found that it is rare that people who are intelligent/mercurial are blessed with work ethic/money management skills. It will be a fab combination if you find that you are, and i hope that is the case. If its not though, don't let pride or ego prevent you from joining up from someone who is. Very easy to drain a lot of energy and enthusiasm doing things that you are not designed for. Probably sounds quite negative, but its meant in a good way

The C Kid

KevIRL wrote: »

Excellent read so far, really enjoying it. KUTGW.

Thanks.

One question...How come you didnt bump a reminder to this post before the Barca game?

Because I didn't take any action myself, i backed them to get out the group and have had in an involvement in every other game they played. But come on it's Barca in the Camp Nou! Was gutted for days after. Even worse was one of my fav footballer analyists tipped them at 50s, and landed a ridiculous treble. I laid in the home tie though so wasn't all bad. However with some pretty poor staking I haven't made as much of them as I should

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The C Kid

colquhom wrote: »

I think I hate poker, how good of an idea would it be to lay Lloyd for the maximum I can and go out in a blaze of glory either way?

Great idea if for only the fact that at least I'll have some company on the poor bus if it all goes wrong.

The C Kid

robinblinds wrote: »

Brilliant read.

I share your passion for sports betting. And poker. However, I find sports are lot easier to find value sometimes. I think its because I've only really played poker for the last 5 years.

Cheers, I find it the same.

I don't want you to exhaustively differentiate between all of the below but...

Would you find HU PLO 200, a 2m2f handicap hurdle at Clonmel, LOI, GAA, Golf or Jedward et al a bigger draw for you personally?

I don't have a clue about LOI or GAA. My GAA knowledge consists of lumping on Kerry and opposing the Dubs. Although GAA did start one of my biggest downswings this year when I'd back Kerry on the spread in the League Final, and they failed to cover thanks to a last minute point when only a goal could affect the actual match result. Did loads the next couple of days was travelling to Monte Carlo that week and had to stay in my hotel grinding for most of it LOL.

The LOI thing was a joke for one of my mates reading the thread. I hate the thing, overpaid labourers playing one of the worst standards of football you'll find. I'm definitely a lifetime loser LOI bettor so maybe this has clouded my judgements. However I do think that it's an area of betting where you'd have more of an edge than other leagues. I've read a few blogs this year where the guys have been doing quite good.

No interest in a handicap hurdle at Clonmel, a maiden hurdle or bumper on the other hand.

Golf punting excites me, but I don't have the patience or the discipline required. I have a mate though who does quite well, and I listen to him alot. There's a few guys who i like to read who are very knowledgeable on the subject as well.

X-Factor punting is the best by a mile. Fun, i think it's still relatively undeveloped and it always gives you something to talk about with anyone. It's also like crack for women which is always good.


Is it the draw of finding the edge or a more sporting draw for you?

Finding an edge for sure. I'd bet on anything if I thought I'd an edge. Although when it mixes with sports I enjoy that's definitely more fun. I love greyhound racing but am a massive lifetime dog loser.

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The C Kid

nicnicnic wrote: »

Great Well. WP

Cheers. Always look out for your golf advice on here. Your Kaymer shout was superb.

esp this

"
There's that five or ten minutes of true pleasure after you watch the board roll out for the final pot with the last of your dollars, where you know you can't do anymore for a while and the tilt just leaves your body and you are just eerily calm for a while. Then obviously the disgust and upset kicks in, but that ten minutes are pretty fun."

It's true though, I have a mate who is a proper HSPLO degen and he says that if you got this good a feeling when you win he'd never lose.





Golf the greatest sport to have a punt on ?

A Sunday evening punting on a tightly contested major is one of the greatest things ever.

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The C Kid

Silver-Tiger wrote: »

One of fav posters C kid, Keep it up. Great Well.

Thanks

What would ya rather follow(in the flesh) Tiger for 6 holes or any other golfer of your choice for 18?

Tiger for six. Maybe Daly in his gambling/drinking prime.

US Open 2008, how much did he make you? I had him at 7/2, What ya get him at? He'd win on that course with one arm let alone one leg... although it was so close.

A really important amount to me at the time. His back nine on Saturday was just amazing. I watch the Official film of that tournament once every couple of months when I'm bored and need a pick me up. Just amazing theatre.

Do you play Fantasy premier league?

First season this year. So addicted it's not funny. I waste way too much time, tinkering, developing strategies, and reading FISO. I have about 2k's worth of action to win a decent chunk of change. I'm not that confident anymore. I started off pretty steady but have been falling pretty fast recently, I also make way too many knee jerk reactions. Would have had a really decent week this week but for the Spurs result. I think I'm a poor judge of them as they are my own team and I don't like to punt on them, plus my mates always give me grief about how much I banter about them. It's not hard to figure out which is my team in the Boards leagues!

In the following markets are you a lifetime winner or loser

Boxing? Don't punt much on it. Lifetime winner due to the two biggest punts I have winning. Going to the Khan fight next weekend, which will be my first live experience of boxing.
Snooker? Never punt on it really. Always mean to try and trade on it, one of the guys on my msn does it full-time and is pretty shrewd.
Tennis? Loser, bigger viewer than punter. Love Fed.
Formula 1? Hate this so much
NFL? Only got into it through a mate the last while, love it, still have very little clue, it's scary when you see how much info and analysis goes into it from the books and the serious punters. American analysis seems to be light years ahead of anything over here for our sports. Probably a loser but no life-changing sums. I think it's probably the greatest sport for a true degen.
Rugby? Winner, and one of the sports I'd consider myself most knowledgeable about, some of my mates might disagree. Love Heineken Cup weekends.
Big Brother? Winner. Really enjoyed this year, didn't punt that much on it though. It's a massive commitment some of the hours spent on it by people are scary.
I'm a celeb? Never really have an interest in this. Just doesn't appeal to me at all, and would never be motivated to be that interested in it.

Who's your fav poster on here?

Lloyd and BCB when he isn't shilling PPP.

When do you start looking into the eurovision market and how deep where you in on the last one?

I can't take any credit for the analysis this year, it's done by a guy on another forum i read. He's very shrewd although there have been some costly incidents in the past but he's normally very good. This year was just sick good analysis.

Cheers

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max_power

Ever get involved in any prop bets?

toHex

Big Brother? Winner. Really enjoyed this year, didn't punt that much on it though. It's a massive commitment some of the hours spent on it by people are scary.

did you follow this all the way through? I was on it closely and the polls on digitalspy were 100% accurate all the way through but i missed the last week - out of the country with no internet

The C Kid

YULETIRED wrote: »

Just catching up of this now, good stuff kid, some of these may be duplicates .

Cheers

Who is your favourite twin , John or dother fella ?

On their own they are very little, but together as JEDWARD they are an incredible wonder and probably the most culturally relevant entity to come out of the country ever.


Any conspiracy theories you believe in ?

Impossible to run good at poker and run good with women at the same time. Unless you look like Patric Antonius.

Did BCB ever have hair or was he always ruddy and shiny ?

Not since I've known him.

Do you think Mcelroy could possibly emulate the Man?

If you mean Harrington then possibly, if you mean Tiger then no chance whatsoever. He could be the new Westwood imo

Would you play Russian Roulette for just one shot to win 5 Mllion(or name your price) , 5 empty barrells 1 Bullet.

Probably for less on some days.

Ever been to Listowel races? how does it rate in your diary ?

No. Am sure it's a bit of craic, I'm a bit of a racing snob so never been to drawn to Galway, Listowel or any of the other Irish national hunt festivals.

You say you tilt in poker, do you think the tendancy to tilt is a dangerous characteristic for a pro gambler.

Yes, hence why I'm not a pro or never will be. I'm just too lazy to sign on.


In what way is POD overrated and give us a player equally as good who is underrated.

He's not over-rated in terms of real-life. In a gambling sense however I think he is often under-priced. He has questions marks when leading still imo. He's not the most naturally talented but his work ethic is incredible, this is always going to be so hard to keep at the top level as his life changes with family/money etc. I think he's a really impressive person and definitely someone I'd admire, he's a superb role model to young people in this country especially in our present times.



How would you price this treble ?

Federer for a Major
Tiger for a Major
Bolt for Olympic gold in 100m and 200m

Leave out Tiger major, throw in Tiger slam.

Fav scooby doo character and why?

No idea!

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The C Kid

HIVeindhoven wrote: »

Favourite Sligo pubs? How do you rate the place?

None really. Normally just drink somewhere boring like McHughs before a night out or to watch a game. Like watching rugby in the snug bar in Foleys with my old man and McLaughlins is a fun spot with a crowd. Tend to drink in mates apartments/my place before clubs now. Sligo is ok, people are great, it's a better place to come back to than to live imo.

Takeaways/Resteraunts?

Tra Ban, Silver Apple, Tobergal Lane, Poppadom my fav restuarants. Mandarin Court, Poppadom, Bistro only acceptable takeaway options imo.

Most time spent without sleep on the Spin?

Nothing too major, I love my sleep.

Is there a big dichotomy between your degen and non degen friends.

Not hugely, most of the non-gambling friends are people I met through college. If I was ever in any real trouble it would be my gambling mates who I'd turn too except for my best mate who amazingly despite hanging around with me for ages had managed to avoid the illness.

Cheers

No worries, any places you recommend yourself?

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The C Kid

pistolpeter wrote: »

Brilliant read so far, few questions,

Cheers.

You say we should have more sports discussions on here, would you be interested in setting up a sports discussion thread on here like they do on 2+2? ie people laying each others bets.

Yeah, it's been mentioned a lot by people. Would be a lot of fun, it hurt more shipping $$$ to Hawkeye that my actual losses after the PGA despite it being a fraction of the amount. I have to win money of Yuletired too in revenge for his banter after that event too

If you got 2-1 on a one off toin coss, wat percentage of your roll would you put on it?

Depends on life circumstances, now probably 90% - 100% as am still young and can just make more when it's all gone.

How much would you need to get to never do 1 sports bet ever again or never to play one hand of poker?

Never playing poker again would be easy, betting way harder. Couple of million maybe.

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The C Kid

Whyno wrote: »

Do you like myself(uber degen) live life by the sword namely risk all your role from time to time on supposed certainties?

I've been known too occasionally from time to time. Gotta speculate to accumulate.

How many times have you went bust?

Too many too mention

If so How did you build it back? i.e loan from mate, work etc

Lend when winning, collect when losing. Loans from mates. Mother is always good if I'm really stuck, i show her some P&Ls or pokertracker stats, and she starts to think she's one of the Dragons and loves to invest. I remember busto-ing a five-figure bank in a weekend's tilt, and a mate gave me his account to use which had a fair bit in it for him at the time, I bustoed this in about two hours. He never once pressured me into paying back, and I've always been really grateful for that. Payed him back eventually.

Ive hated ante post betting since i had lumped on (2k)New Approach for the irish derby and was pulled out. Have you ever had this experience and how much did it hurt?

Not really, never go huge on AP.

Do you set yourself targets on how much to win each week month etc?

Nah. Just hope to run good and not go broke.

How regular do you bet?

More than I should, way less than I used too.

I`ll think of some more before ya finish up and just want to say thanks for doing this.
Also re the dog racing and as a former owner of a number of hounds i can concur there is no greater thrill than punting your own animal when full of the jungle juice...oops did i say to much

Cheers, I've only been directly involved in ownership once. We managed to get the slowest creature of all time.

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The C Kid

elshambo wrote: »

I should have loads of betting questions for ya but dont:o, if i think of some...


Rec a couple of good pubs in Sligo (self-barred from Shoots btw:eek:)

Not a huge fan of any of the pubs really. Foleys is a good sporting pub.

When i drink in Sligo it tends to be Furey's or Mclaughlins
few other nominations welcome

Two good choices imo. Hadn't really been into Furey's much before recently but go to open-mic occasionally, and saw a band in there the other night, the Oddsocks Revival who were cool.

adelaide Casino worth a visit?
thinking of spending large parts of december in there

Yes, couldn't recommend it highly enough. Paul and Mark are two absolute gents who love gambling and everything that comes with it. Both are far greater degens that I could ever hope to be. Rest of the staff are really good too, a good atmosphere, and the regulars have some fun banter. No clue as of the softness of the games as don't play there at all, if you gonna play loads down there I can ask a mate for more info on the regs. Also if you are going to donate can you do it to the young ginger regular in tracksuit bottoms who looks like a complete nit as he will need it for his credit card roulette bills over the festive period. Thanks. Thankfully I owe Paul money so will be avoiding it over Xmas.

ooh
1.Gonna reopen my betfair account
going to start from scratch, any reccomendations as to where to start reading/ markets to look into
( i dont do horses due to seeing first hand the amount of work/roll it takes to make it really worth while)


Not really, the general betting forum on betfair forum is always an interesting read. Concentrate on stuff you've an interest in and have fun.


cheers!

*good read sham btw

Thanks alot.

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The C Kid

Latest Score wrote: »

Long time reader of your work so decided to set up an a/c to ask a few questions.............

Cheers, I am quite the fan of your work too. If we can just get those track biases sorted out in time for Xmas it will be turkey all round.

1. Any fav roulette number and why??

I occasionally have been known to back 31 black with a few friends. I think this dates back to a SouthPark episode. However according to the life-time graph of the Adelaide casino 31 black is their biggest winner.

2. Any good carribean/blackjack stories??

No. But I've been meaning to write a how to win at Carribean Poker book, will you write the foreword?

3. How much is your lifetime casino loss?

Less than yours. I hope.

4. Credit Card roulette.....explain??

Always put your card in with your left hand. Always play with Edge, Billy or you, and you'll always be at the most a 5% shot.

5. Fav Sligo venue??

Anywhere you're not when you've had a few beers and resort to drinking out of bowls.

6. Fav Boxing match??

Hatton/Mayweather with you on the undercard in Toffs backbar.


7. What % of stories in this thread are word for word true??

98%, I'm losing faith in my LOI expert and I shortened my shower routine.

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The C Kid

Rekop dog wrote: »

Best looking girl in The Hills or is it just all about the Pratt?

I mean obviously they nice to look at but I don't think any of them are amazing. Definitely no Frankie from The Saturdays.

The show is all about Spencer, if we can just get rid of the rest and just have him discussing life for 30 minutes it would be the greatest show in the world.

The C Kid

mocata wrote: »

I am not inferring that you are gonna be a slacker, but i have found that it is rare that people who are intelligent/mercurial are blessed with work ethic/money management skills. It will be a fab combination if you find that you are, and i hope that is the case. If its not though, don't let pride or ego prevent you from joining up from someone who is. Very easy to drain a lot of energy and enthusiasm doing things that you are not designed for. Probably sounds quite negative, but its meant in a good way

Not negative at all, very good advice. The bolded bit rang true for me anyway. Much appreciated. Thanks

The C Kid

max_power wrote: »

Ever get involved in any prop bets?

Not really, so no good stories!

The C Kid

toHex wrote: »

Big Brother? Winner. Really enjoyed this year, didn't punt that much on it though. It's a massive commitment some of the hours spent on it by people are scary.

did you follow this all the way through? I was on it closely and the polls on digitalspy were 100% accurate all the way through but i missed the last week - out of the country with no internet

Watched it most of the way, didn't really punt much on it. Digital spy is a useful resource but has a massive amount of rubbish to sift through. Some excellent posters there though at times.

The C Kid

Think thats my time here done.

Cheers everyone, hope you enjoyed it.

Good luck, and remember to gamble responsibly.

kpnuts

Can Dave "Dubai" Shallow ever be suitably wedged up for:

(a) more than 24 hours

(b) more than a week

(c) more than 3 months

One answer only, please. Maximum timeframe checked.