Your daily forecasts from Boards.ie weather forum (NO CHAT)

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 30 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY ... Wintry showers becoming more isolated to parts of Connacht with a few sunny intervals but remaining cold, moderate northeast winds, 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 6 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Clear intervals, isolated snow showers, cold. Lows -3 to +1 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, isolated wintry showers, cold. Highs 5 to 9 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... A very cold, frosty start with some sunny breaks to mid-day, then increasing cloud with blustery east winds developing, rain or sleet by late afternoon and evening in south. Lows -4 to -1 C and highs 6 to 10 C, highest in west Munster.

MONDAY - TUESDAY ... Most guidance shows a cold, wet scenario with rain becoming sleety then turning to snow in some central and northern counties. However, this remains somewhat uncertain with some guidance suggesting a milder outcome albeit with heavy rain at times. Temperatures will either stay in the 4 to 8 C range or if it does manage to turn warmer, readings of about 10 to 12 C are possible, especially in the south.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This is also uncertain with the same two variations projected further ahead, either it stays cold and unsettled with wintry mixtures at times, or there could be a warmer trend if some guidance proves correct. We should see a more reliable solution soon.

My local weather was overcast with a high of 10 C, and light rain has begun to fall.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 31 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals more frequent in west, isolated wintry showers possible in east with snow on higher ground, cold with highs 5 to 9 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals, frost and fog with lows -3 to +2 C.

EASTER SUNDAY ... There may be some sunshine in north and east during the morning after any fog or low cloud dissipate, but then more cloud will move slowly north from Munster followed by stronger easterly winds and eventually rain or sleet, staying quite cold with highs 5 to 9 C. Temperatures may rise to about 10 or 11 C late evening in south.

MONDAY ... Rain or sleet heavy at times, moving gradually north but replaced by low cloud and drizzle or fog on higher terrain in particular, and there may be outbreaks of snow in north central counties as temperatures fall back gradually from early highs of 7 to 10 C.

TUESDAY ... Rain or sleet may be heavy at times with accumulations of snow possible on higher ground, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 5 to 8 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... The cool, wet and unseasonable weather will likely continue with another cycle of partial clearing mid-week followed by more rain, sleet or wet snow towards end of the week, but then the second week of April still gives some promise of warmer weather eventually with highs possibly returning to more normal values in the mid-teens.

My local weather on Friday, returning to home base, brought a mixture of cloud, sunshine and passing showers as a cold front arrived from our northwest just as we arrived from the south, so once that went through, clearing and quite a bit colder, temperatures in the morning were close to 12 C and are now below freezing with the full moon visible through fog and low cloud, which reminds me, full moon occurs at 1238h UTC or 1:38 p.m. Irish "summer" time (I have to say, our name for it is even more inappropriate, daylight saving time, in fact no daylight is saved, it's just moved later into the day).

highdef

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Saturday, 31 March, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


Irish "summer" time (I have to say, our name for it is even more inappropriate, daylight saving time, in fact no daylight is saved, it's just moved later into the day).

Actually, you're incorrect. IST actually stands for Irish Standard Time.
Irish Standard Time (IST) is 1 hour ahead of Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). This time zone is a Daylight Saving Time time zone and is used in Europe.

In the Republic of Ireland, the Standard Time Act 1968 legally established that the time for general purposes in the State (to be known as standard time) shall be one hour in advance of Greenwich mean time throughout the year. This act was amended by the Standard Time (Amendment) Act 1971, which legally established Greenwich Mean Time as a winter time period. Ireland therefore operates one hour behind standard time during the winter period, and reverts to standard time in the summer months. This is defined in contrast to the other states in the European Union, which operate one hour ahead of standard time during the summer period, but produces the same end result.

Rather off topic but I have as sneaking suspicion that this has garnered your interest.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks, didn't know about that ... I think I saw the use of IST once when I started this thread and assumed it meant the same as BST, so I've probably said this non-existent phrase Irish Summer Time quite a few times already. So in that case, what do people say when referencing the time zone in winter? Or does it never get a mention? I'm used to living in a time zone where everything is spelled out as you may know if you've travelled over here, most things are set up first in eastern time then you hear what time in your own time zone, so it gets a bit confusing, like a TV show might be on at the same time in all time zones or it may be on at the same time in universal time.

Water John

Recognise this isn't a discussion forum. But we generally say Summer and Winter Time.
Previous generations also used the terms New Time (Summer) and Old Time (Winter). This may have something to do with the 1916 Time Act.FYI.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 1st of April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Increasing cloud and cold this morning, rain or sleet developing across Munster by late morning and spreading gradually further north by late afternoon, with raw east to southeast winds increasing to 50 to 80 km/hr adding a chill to highs only 5 to 8 C.

TONIGHT ... The rain and sleet will continue to move further north with some heavy falls of wet snow possible on hilly terrain in central and northern counties, as temperatures there will fall back to 2 to 5 C and stay in that range until near dawn, while further south it will stay somewhat milder in rain, drizzle and fog with lows near 6 or 7 C.

MONDAY ... Further outbreaks of rain or sleet but as temperatures slowly improve and rain becomes showery, a more seasonable feel to the weather at least, with highs 10 to 12 C (7 to 10 C north Ulster).

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, some heavy and possibly thundery showers but also some sunny intervals, with more of a steady rain developing late afternoon and evening, heavy at times in west. Lows 3 to 6 C and highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Becoming colder again with gusty north to northwest winds, rain or drizzle turning back to sleet over higher terrain, as temperatures fall slowly towards the 3 to 6 C range. Winds north to northwest 50 to 80 km/hr will add a considerable chill to those readings.

THURSDAY ... A few sunny intervals, frosty in places to start, then increasing cloud, rain or sleet in south and west, lows -2 to +3 C and highs near 7 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY are looking rather wet again with fog and temperatures steady in the 8 to 11 C range.

As we get further into April, colder air masses will be trying to remain in place but there are continuing hints of considerably warmer patterns with a draw on warmer air from the continent in southeast winds, or else warmer southerlies from the Biscay region. Details keep changing so timing any of this seems to be April foolish, but I think we could say the average temperature will be closer to normal by mid-month than it has been for the past month (which has ended up about two degrees colder than normal March values).

My local weather on Saturday was sunny with a few clouds, and rather cold although the sun felt warm out of the breeze. Highs only reached about 4 C. We are expecting a similar pattern for Easter Sunday as yourselves, rain moving in and possibly turning to snow overnight with slow clearing on Monday but continued quite cold for time of year.

Happy Easter to all and thanks for the information about the time zone designations.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 2 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Further outbreaks of rain or sleet may turn heavy at times but the trend will be more to showers and some brief clearing in the southwest where highs could reach 12 C. Highs more likely to be held to 6 to 9 C central and 4 to 7 C northern counties as a weak easterly flow will continue to push in at the surface. Extensive fog and mist is likely as a result. About 15 to 30 mm further rainfall is possible.

TONIGHT ... Fog and mist, some continued outbreaks of rain, lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Variable cloud, showers and local thunderstorms, highs 9 to 12 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain from early morning to mid-day then somewhat drier as winds pick up from the northwest (50 to 70 km/hr) although the light rain may continue to evening in Leinster. Another 15 to 25 mm of rain is possible. Temperatures steady 5 to 8 C then falling slightly.

THURSDAY ... A cold and frosty start is likely, lows -3 to +2 C, then increasing cloud, intervals of rain by evening, highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will bring back a milder southerly flow and more rain at times, highs near 12 C.

This rather gloomy and wet pattern shows faint signs of shifting to something a bit drier and therefore warmer in the daytime at least, during the second week of April, as higher pressure is likely to build up over Scandinavia. Whether we get into a full-on warm and dry southeasterly flow or just improved temperatures and less frequent rain depends on which guidance proves correct, but at least all available guidance shows some improvement (how could it not, I suppose?) ... and there could be one or two pleasantly warm days within that second week time frame, but it may take several false starts before a more profound change in pattern develops, which I think may happen in May this year.

My local weather on Easter Sunday was (no joke) cold and snowy although the large drifting snowflakes failed to settle on the ground at our elevation, winter storm conditions are being reported through local mountain passes. This system is moving away fairly quickly to form a powerful spring storm over the central U.S. later today and Tuesday, with an outbreak of severe storms likely to develop within a day or two in the usual locations around the lower Mississippi valley and southeastern U.S. -- and more snow is expected in the upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes region with a lot of rain and fog in between the snow and severe storm zones.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 3 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... A band of heavier rain with the slight risk of thunder will continue to move north reaching central counties by mid-day and into the north by afternoon. There will be other outbreaks of light rain or drizzle and also a few brighter intervals mostly in the wake of the more organized band as clearing follows it northward through Munster. Highs 8 to 11 C. About 7 to 12 mm of rain on average.

TONIGHT ... Another outbreak of moderate rain will move into Leinster while other regions have a damp and foggy night with some drizzle at times. A further 5 to 10 mm of rain likely in the east. Lows about 2 to 4 C west, 4 to 7 C east.

WEDNESDAY ... Rain gradually ending in Leinster but drizzle turning to sleet in parts of Ulster, as colder air invades from the northwest, winds becoming northerly 40 to 60 km/hr by afternoon in western counties, quite cold, temperatures steady in the range of 5 to 9 C.

THURSDAY ... A very cold and frosty start under clear skies except for local fog patches, lows -4 to +1 C, then increasing cloud during the day with rain reaching the west coast by late afternoon or evening, highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder with rain (10 to 20 mm likely), highs 8 to 12 C, southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr.

WEEKEND OUTLOOK ... Gradual improvements as the rain tapers off during Saturday morning to drizzle then some clearing, to partly cloudy skies most of Sunday with isolated showers, temperatures closer to seasonal normals with highs 11 to 13 C.

NEXT WEEK could bring several dry days with temperatures staying in the same range as the weekend but with colder nights due to more extensive clearing. This does not currently appear likely to last more than a few days before rain returns but then it should be a milder southerly flow with the rain. Gradually it looks as though April will see a return to more normal spring weather patterns.

My local weather on Monday was quite cold with lingering wet snow at times, and highs no better than about 2 C which is almost ten degrees below average for here. An intense spring storm is developing over the central plains with the potential for tornadic storms in the south-central and southeast states later today, and snow spreading into the upper Great Lakes region.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 4 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rain gradually ending in Leinster but drizzle turning to sleet in parts of Ulster, as colder air invades from the northwest, gradual clearing but cold in Connacht and later west Munster, as winds become northerly 40 to 60 km/hr by afternoon in western counties, temperatures steady in the range of 5 to 9 C with a colder trend by afternoon.

TONIGHT ... Clearing and very cold with widespread frost, lows -4 to +1 C. Some fog patches will form in low-lying areas.

THURSDAY ... A very cold and frosty start under clear skies except for local fog patches, lows -4 to +1 C, then increasing cloud during the day with rain reaching the west coast by late afternoon or evening, highs 7 to 10 C.

FRIDAY ... Windy and milder with rain (10 to 20 mm likely), lows 5 to 8 C and highs 8 to 12 C, southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, mild, a few showers with isolated thunderstorms possible, lows 3 to 6 C, highs 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional light rain or drizzle, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

MONDAY ... Rather windy with rain at times, highs near 10 C.

OUTLOOK ... After the Monday disturbance passes, an easterly regime will develop, but unlike the very cold spells in March, this one will produce near average temperatures, the uncertainty lies more in how much cloud and passing showers may develop as low pressure will lurk off to the south, but it seems at worst that the frequency and intensity of rainfall will drop off during this spell and it could be accompanied by some sunshine at times and dry intervals if not an entirely dry period. So it should be an improvement, whether it's a minor one or something a bit more welcome to allow for some drying.

My local weather on Tuesday was cloudy and cold with highs only reaching 4 C. The severe storm outbreak further east in the U.S. has reached the Ohio valley and southeastern states and will rapidly move through the east coast cities later today with strong wind gusts and a sharp fall in temperatures from near 20 C to about -2 C by tomorrow morning. Snow is moving through central Ontario into Quebec and there may be some snow squalls by tonight in the lower Great Lakes region as the much colder air arrives there later today. Future days look unseasonably cold in eastern North America with several more opportunities for snowfalls and temperatures more typical of late February than early to mid April.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 5 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Watch for icy stretches of roads in some inland counties to about 0900h as the day gets off to a very cold and frosty start under clear skies except for local fog patches, temperatures will slowly recover to about 5 C late morning and will reach late afternoon or evening highs of 7 to 10 C as cloud increases rapidly followed by strong southeast winds and intervals of heavy rain by evening (at least in south and west, it will reach other parts of Ireland overnight).

TONIGHT ... Windy with about 10 to 20 mm of rain in many areas, peak winds around midnight southeast to south 50 to 80 km/hr, some higher gusts possible near south coast, then these strong winds easing somewhat by morning, temperatures steady 5 to 7 C. Fog will develop over higher terrain.

FRIDAY ... Rather windy and milder with further rain (10 to 20 mm likely in west-central counties, 5 to 10 mm further east), with highs of 8 to 12 C, southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr although less blustery at times in west as a slack pressure gradient develops there.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, relatively mild by recent standards, a few showers with isolated thunderstorms possible, lows 3 to 6 C, highs 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional light rain or drizzle, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C. There may be some decent dry spells in eastern counties. Clearing for a time overnight and becoming frosty in central northern counties.

MONDAY ... Overcast, moderate southeast winds with rain at times, lows -1 to +3 C and highs near 10 C. This rain will likely be heavier in west Munster than most other places as the frontal system dives southeast as a response to higher pressure beginning to develop over northern Europe.

OUTLOOK ... The consensus of guidance seems to be "not too bad" in terms of the easterly regime setting in with some intervals of dry weather and limited sunshine each day, as well as reasonable temperatures near average for mid-April (highs should be into the 12-15 C range although may be held down somewhat by sea breezes in Leinster). It appears as though rainfall may only average about 1 to 3 mm a day and some places may remain dry as weak disturbances ripple westward between high pressure in northern Britain and low pressure near the Biscay region. This should promote at least some drying although it's not quite the sort of warm, dry spell that is probably most needed, however, small steps at this point may be encouraging for eventual improvements in May.

My local weather on Wednesday featured a bit of sunshine with large cloud buildups to our east and west over mountains, where it appeared to be snowing, but it remained dry in the valley and the high was about 6 C. An unseasonably cold arctic high is sliding down the east side of the Rockies into the plains states and blasting eastern regions of North America with gale force westerly winds and widespread snow squalls off the Great Lakes. When another low forms this weekend in Kansas, it is going to clash with this cold air and bring an unusually heavy snowfall to some parts of the eastern U.S. by Saturday, 10-15 cms are being predicted for Washington D.C. and some snow may fall as far north as New York City and Long Island. Snow is rare in April in that region.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 6 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Rather windy and milder with further rain (10 to 20 mm likely in west-central counties, 5 to 10 mm further east), with highs of 10 to 13 C, southerly winds 50 to 80 km/hr although less blustery at times in west as a slack pressure gradient develops near the coast, some very heavy bursts of rain this morning to mid-day in west Munster could bring local 30 mm rainfalls and spot flooding.

TONIGHT ... Rain becoming showery and then tapering off to drizzle with fog developing, lows 4 to 6 C.

SATURDAY ... Partly cloudy, relatively mild by recent standards, a few showers with isolated thunderstorms possible, highs 11 to 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional light rain or drizzle, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C. There may be some decent dry spells in eastern counties. Clearing for a time overnight and becoming frosty in central northern counties.

MONDAY ... Becoming overcast, moderate southeast winds with rain at times, lows -1 to +3 C and highs near 10 C. This rain will likely be heavier in west Munster than most other places as the frontal system dives southeast as a response to higher pressure beginning to develop over northern Europe. However, another localized area of heavier rain may move through the Irish Sea towards eastern Ulster and north Leinster. This rain will persist into the early morning hours of Tuesday before fragmenting to drizzle and mist.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, east winds 30 to 50 km/hr, some lingering showers mainly in south and west by afternoon, highs 9 to 11 C east and 12 to 15 C west.

OUTLOOK ... Several days of reasonably dry weather in easterly winds, milder in western counties as a result. Highs 12 to 15 C from east to west. Not much risk of frost but one or two places could see readings close to 2 or 3 C overnight, more likely about 5 to 7 C. This spell may persist to about the weekend of 14th-15th before a pattern similar to the present unsettled southwesterly flow returns (and I hope this proves to be wrong by then, as it could be with blocking high pressure next week it's always a bit uncertain as to how long that might be able to survive, the longer it does, the warmer the continental east-southeast flow will become).

My local weather on Thursday was overcast with occasional light rain, and the high was about 8 C. We are slowly warming in a weak southerly flow while very cold air invades central and eastern North America from the high arctic, currently -5 C and snowing in western Nebraska and this is heading for southern Missouri and then Tennessee and southern Virginia over the next two days while very cold air is heading for the northeastern U.S. by Sunday. The snowfall event will likely move out to sea rather than hitting the east coast north of about Delaware.

The pattern remains very similar for eastern North America for about two weeks with several more wintry air masses heading south -- making up for the very mild conditions at times in the actual winter season.

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 7 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy except for some sunny intervals near the west coast at times, with outbreaks of rain spreading north into the eastern and some central counties, 5 to 10 mm likely. Chance of an isolated and brief thunderstorm. Highs 9 to 12 C east, 12 to 14 C west. Moderate southerly winds at times 30 to 50 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, misty or foggy in many places by midnight, isolated showers persisting in north and east, lows 3 to 7 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, occasional light rain or drizzle, lows 2 to 5 C and highs 10 to 13 C. There may be some decent dry spells in eastern counties. Clearing for a time overnight and becoming frosty in central northern counties.

MONDAY ... Becoming overcast, moderate southeast winds with rain at times, lows -1 to +3 C and highs near 10 C. This rain will likely be heavier in west Munster than most other places as the frontal system dives southeast as a response to higher pressure beginning to develop over northern Europe. However, another localized area of heavier rain may move through the Irish Sea towards eastern Ulster and north Leinster. This rain will persist into the early morning hours of Tuesday before fragmenting to drizzle and mist.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, east winds 30 to 50 km/hr, some lingering showers mainly in south and west by afternoon, heavy at times near Cork and south Kerry. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 9 to 11 C east and 12 to 15 C west.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are looking fairly decent with some hazy sunshine at times, only isolated brief showers, and light to moderate east to southeast breezes which will allow the western and central counties to reach 14 to 17 C while the east is held to about 12 to 14 C. There could be slight frosts in a few locations but temperatures will warm rapidly after sunrise.

FRIDAY will turn more overcast with outbreaks of rain likely again, highs 12 to 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Temperatures will likely remain near average with a fair amount of cloud through next weekend, some showers at times, but another brief warmer and dry easterly spell is possible, although that one shows signs of transforming later into a cold northeasterly around two weeks from now. On the whole, the weather pattern is showing signs of improvement, especially after Tuesday.

My local weather on Friday turned quite windy as we had southeast winds downsloping off nearby mountains as colder air tried to push west from the prairies where it is bitterly cold due to strong arctic high pressure. We mixed that colder air with the milder air that was here yesterday and ended up around 6 C with the wind dying out by late afternoon. The high is dropping south into the plains states, and a low forming overnight north of New Orleans is heading for Virginia and North Carolina where it may produce some locally heavy snowfall when the cold air comes into contact with it, but right now it's just producing heavy rain in the south central states with widespread thunderstorms inland from the Gulf coast. A weaker system brought 3 to 5 cm snowfalls to the eastern Great Lakes region earlier and colder air is flooding in there now, winter has returned after some spring-like weather last week.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 8 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud, occasional light rain or drizzle, and highs 10 to 13 C. There may be some decent dry spells in eastern counties.

TONIGHT ... Clearing for a time overnight and becoming frosty in central northern counties. Lows -1 to +3 C.

MONDAY ... Sunny intervals at first for Leinster and Ulster, more cloud likely in Connacht and Munster. Becoming overcast by afternoon throughout, with moderate southeast winds and rain at times, heavier in south and west. Rain will become more widespread during the night but amounts will be generally moderate in total, 5 to 15 mm likely.

TUESDAY ... Cloudy with afternoon sunny breaks, east winds 30 to 50 km/hr, some lingering showers mainly in south and west by afternoon, heavy at times near Cork and south Kerry. Lows 3 to 7 C and highs 9 to 11 C east and 12 to 15 C west. Rather cool except near Connacht coasts where more seasonable for early April.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY are looking fairly decent with some hazy sunshine at times, only isolated brief showers, and light to moderate east to southeast breezes which will allow the western and central counties to reach 14 to 17 C while the east is held to about 12 to 14 C by the onshore sea breeze regime. Even so, it may be pleasantly mild away from the cooler shoreline areas. There could be slight frosts in a few locations with lows -1 to +4 C, but temperatures will warm rapidly after sunrise.

FRIDAY will turn more overcast with outbreaks of rain likely again, highs 12 to 15 C.

OUTLOOK calls for variable cloud and showers at times in a mild southerly flow, through next weekend and then even warmer into the following week with highs possibly getting closer to 18 C at times.

My local weather on Saturday started out with light rain which turned to sleet and then a heavy wet snow that left about 5 cm as a reminder that spring is fickle in this part of the world. Temperatures fell back from a morning high near 4 C. A gusty windstorm developed during the day on the coast where it's considerably milder at about 14 C. A little snow fell south of Washington D.C. but it didn't amount to much, and the associated rainstorm is heading out to sea but will move into Nova Scotia on Tuesday with a wintry mix expected there. If you're following the Masters golf tournament, the weather there today will be clearing from a cloudy and cold start, to cool but more pleasant temperatures around 14 C by afternoon local time, and light east to southeast winds. Meanwhile another late winter disturbance will move towards the Midwest and Great Lakes with scattered outbreaks of sleet or wet snow expected there, becoming a cold rain for the east coast by Tuesday.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 9 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain or drizzle becoming heavier by afternoon and evening in parts of west and southwest, where about 10 to 15 mm possible, smaller amounts expected in Leinster and Ulster. Highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... Overcast, foggy with light rain or drizzle at times, moderate east winds developing, lows 5 to 8 C.

TUESDAY ... Mostly cloudy, cool, moderate east winds 40 to 60 km/hr, outbreaks of rain in east and south, occasional drizzle further north, highs 9 to 12 C (milder in west coast counties).

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will bring hazy sunny intervals, some cloud, and mostly dry weather in moderate east winds, making it rather cool in coastal Leinster and east Ulster, with highs near 10 C, but relatively warm further west, with highs of 14 to 17 C. Nights will be cooler but generally frost free (lows 2 to 5 C).

FRIDAY will bring somewhat more cloud and outbreaks of light rain in southeast winds 30 to 50 km/hr, lows near 6 C and highs near 14 C.

OUTLOOK for weekend is for mostly cloudy skies, some outbreaks of rain, and increasing southeast winds becoming fairly strong by Saturday night and Sunday. Temperatures will be generally 11 to 13 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for warmer weather to develop during the week of 16th to 20th. Highs may reach 18 C in Ireland and 22 C in Britain as continental warmer air begins to invade from France. This may last a few days before a wetter pattern with temperatures closer to 12-14 C returns.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with a few sunny intervals, and while remaining rather cool (7 C) the snow from Saturday quickly disappeared; we are left with just remnant snowbanks in the valley but a snow cover of 20 to 40 cms remains in place at higher elevations, starting about 100 metres above our elevation (which is 450 m asl).

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 10 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Mostly cloudy, outbreaks of light rain more persistent in east and north this morning, but then developing across the south this afternoon. Some central and western counties may have less or even no rain but amounts of 3 to 6 mm will be general where it does fall. Highs only about 10 C in east and north, but 12 to 14 C south and west. Winds east to northeast 40 to 60 km/hr.

TONIGHT ... Foggy or misty, lows 4 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Hazy sunshine at times, outbreaks of light rain may develop near south coast at times, many areas further north largely dry, warmer towards the west coast due to cool easterly breezes off the Irish Sea. Highs will range from 10 C east to 15 C west.

THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine and slightly warmer again, less chance of rain and most places likely to remain dry, morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs 12 to 17 C (warmest near west coast).

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some showers developing again, southeast winds making the south coast somewhat cooler while the best temperatures will be found in the inland northwest, with highs in the range of 11 to 16 C.

WEEKEND into MONDAY OUTLOOK ... Occasional rain may be heavy at times in south (20 to 40 mm potential by Monday), otherwise 5 to 10 mm amounts and some brighter intervals in the mix. Highs generally 12 to 16 C. Nights rather mild, lows 5 to 9 C and could be above 10 C near some coasts.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Somewhat warmer mid-week with potential for highs in the 18 to 20 C range, then cooling back to 12 to 16 C range late in the week and towards the end of the month when it could briefly turn quite cold for a day or two.

My local weather on Monday was partly cloudy with a high near 10 C. Spring is very slow to manifest itself here with little beyond the usual early spring flowers, the grass is somewhat green now but not really growing and no sign of budding at all (and we are at a latitude south of most of Britain here, right on the 50th parallel, in fact I can walk across it by going to the neighbour's house according to google earth.) It seems that we are a week or two behind the normal spring blooming trends around here. I would imagine you're a bit behind the usual pace there as well.

sryanbruen

UPDATE______Tuesday, 10 April, 2018________ on the long range outlook.

All models are in agreement for a warm interlude next week with air being sourced from continental Europe. The ECM wants it to be settled over Ireland for Thursday 19th with plenty of sunshine in temperatures of the 16-20c range generally, inland areas are favoured because this is the time of year when land starts to be warmer than sea. Outside the shadow of the southeasterly wind and if the sun is very strong, it won't be too difficult for the temperature to rise above 20c as UV levels are high at this time of year. However, this seems to be brief as low pressure makes its way across Ireland on the Friday of the latest run. With this comes the chance of a thundery breakdown. The GFS is showing it warm too but the low pressure is over Ireland on the Thursday which will make it not very sunny and in fact, quite cloudy and humid. The east maybe lucky to catch some sunshine as the wind direction would be a southerly rather than a southeasterly. I'm hoping the sea surface temperatures warm up in the next week somewhat at least because as of right now, they're very cold and will lead to cloud, especially along those eastern coasts in a southeasterly flow. If it goes right, this has a chance to be our warmest April weather since 2011 when a maximum of 23.5c was recorded at Ardfert, Co. Kerry though I don't hold my breath whilst not ruling it out, we'll get this high. The most I'd expect is 21c but again I don't hold my breath for that either.

After this brief taste of Summer, everything becomes up in the air - hopefully the sun that is. The GFS wants us to go into a familiar zonal pattern with low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to the southeast dragging in a southwesterly airflow. Then at the very end of FI, the model brings us into a cold northerly. However, as it's FI, it's all to be taken with a pinch of salt especially with it keep being delayed. If it were to happen, it would be the fourth consecutive year with a dramatic cool down at the end of April. Meanwhile, on the other side of the Atlantic, North America is having unseasonably cold conditions, they're still having Winter over there. This could be one of the reasons why we're seeing the zonal pattern on the GFS and the Europe warmth in general with the cold from the negative Arctic Oscillation heading into North America than here. The CFSv2 wants high pressure to stay to the east of the UK and ridging over a large majority of Ireland for pretty much the rest of April after this week and the weekend into early next week for a time. This would bring constant warm and sunny days along with a lot of dry weather. It's showing what the GFS is saying for the end of April with the cold northerly for the start of May but like the GFS, that keeps being delayed.

Could Mother Nature finally be paying a debt to those who have been suffering badly from the snow and all the rain since last Summer? We'll be keeping our eyes on the whole situation. Let's hope it is as good as it looks right now.

I just wanted to give you all this quick update on the long range outlook because I felt it was important to. I'll hand you back to MT now.

EDIT: GFS 12z really wants this to be a very brief period!

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 11 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Hazy sunshine at times, outbreaks of light rain may develop near south coast at times, many areas further north largely dry, warmer towards the west coast due to cool easterly breezes off the Irish Sea. Highs will range from 10 C east to 15 C west.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, misty in some places, lows 4 to 7 C.

THURSDAY ... Hazy sunshine and slightly warmer again, less chance of rain and most places likely to remain dry, morning lows 4 to 7 C and afternoon highs 12 to 17 C (warmest near west coast).

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some showers developing again, southeast winds making the south coast somewhat cooler while the best temperatures will be found in the inland northwest, with highs in the range of 11 to 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, becoming windy, southeast 50-70 km/hr, rain more persistent by late in the day, 10-20 mm potential. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, rain ending then a few showers, gusty south to southwest winds, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... It continues to look quite warm most of next week, although the real warmth seems to be heading more for Britain, even so, there is some chance of reaching 20 C or a little higher in parts of the inland south and possibly in the northwest counties as there will be a south-southeast wind at times. Readings around Cork city and Dublin are more likely to be 13 to 17 C but it will be warmer further inland especially in Munster and southwest Leinster. There will be several bouts of rain as lows track up from the southwest near the west coast of Ireland at times. Thursday 19th looks to be the warmest day of this spell and parts of southern England and northern France could get well into the 20s as they will be further from the cloud and showers into strong April sunshine. Large contrasts will occur in onshore south to southeast winds and some coastal districts could be held closer to 12 C in low cloud and fog, but any distance inland it should be increasingly warm. This spell will gradually break down to more of a near-normal dry spell after the 20th as a cooler air mass develops over the northern Atlantic and allows strong high pressure to form near Scotland. This might be fairly pleasant weather despite being considerably cooler (highs about 12 C are currently indicated, with slight frost potential).

My local weather is depressing, overcast with fog and low cloud, persistent light rain, and none too warm at 6 or 7 C. Snow is having an easy time holding on back in the higher terrain and the snow melt is very muted, the creeks running out of the local mountains have not risen at all yet. Normally late April and May are flood-risk months here, that's now started in warmer valleys to our west where the snow line is several hundred metres higher than around here already. There's a spell of better spring weather coming to the eastern U.S. in the next few days after several days of snow flurries and chilly temperatures. Highs will be close to 20 C for several days in the Midwest then an outbreak of severe storms is likely this weekend there.

M.T. Cranium

Thursday, 12 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Cloudy with a few spells of hazy sunshine developing in central and western counties mainly, where it will become slightly warmer, while staying quite cool and overcast in the east. There will be less chance of rain today, and most places are likely to remain dry, with highs 10 to 13 C east, and 14 to 16 C west.

FRIDAY ... Variable cloud, some showers developing again, southeast winds making the south coast somewhat cooler while the best temperatures will be found in the inland northwest, with highs in the range of 11 to 16 C.

SATURDAY ... Increasing cloud, becoming windy, southeast 50-70 km/hr, rain more persistent by late in the day, 10-20 mm potential overnight into Sunday. Lows near 8 C and highs near 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, rain ending for a time with a few showers followed by more intervals of rain, with gusty south to southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... Further rain at times, some heavy falls possible in west-central counties, highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK ... Very warm air is going to flood into Britain by about Tuesday and remain entrenched there to Friday with highs 22 to 25 C. Ireland will feel some of this warmth but frontal boundaries will remain either close to the west coast or slightly inland over western counties with further impulses of rain rippling north along this frontal zone. Highs could reach 18 or even 20 C in some parts during these warmer days but rain may drop temperatures back to 15 or 16 C. Eventually the warm spell comes to a rather abrupt end by late Friday into Saturday with heavy rain and colder temperatures, followed by a cooler week to ten days (21st to end of month basically) which could bring some further rain and temperatures as low as 9 or 10 C in the daytime hours as the flow will become north to northeast at times. Hopefully there will be a stronger warm spell for some part of May once that cold trend plays out its hand.

My local weather finally brightened up to partly cloudy skies with a milder high near 11 C. There is still very little sign of spring blooming but the remnant snow banks have slumped down to almost nothing in the town (still snow back in the surrounding forested areas). Eastern regions of North America are enjoying a spring warmup this week with some rain in the Midwest and Great Lakes, sunshine near the east coast, and highs 15 to 20 C. Severe storms will develop Friday in Oklahoma and Texas, moving further east on Saturday and reaching the east coast on Sunday.

M.T. Cranium

Friday, 13 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud, some showers developing again, southeast winds making the south coast somewhat cooler while the best temperatures will be found in the inland northwest, with highs in the range of 11 to 16 C.

TONIGHT ... Some clear intervals developing, but fog and mist rather widespread too, lows 3 to 7 C.

SATURDAY ... Some morning sunshine possible, then increasing cloud, becoming windy, southeast 50-70 km/hr, rain more persistent by late in the day, spreading into the western counties by evening, with 10-20 mm potential overnight into Sunday. Highs 12 to 14 C.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, rain ending for a time with a few showers followed by more intervals of rain, with gusty south to southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr, lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

MONDAY ... Further rain at times, some heavy falls possible in west-central counties, highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine at times, possible heavy showers or thunderstorms in western counties, highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will see warmer conditions inland, highs 18 to 21 C. There may be some outbreaks of thundery showers mainly in the western counties. Coastal areas could be a lot cooler with low cloud and sea fog. In Britain and northern France, the warmth may be record-breaking with highs there possibly reaching 25 C.

OUTLOOK ... This warm spell will begin to break down on Friday with more widespread thundery showers likely in all parts of the country, then rain will clear northeast on Saturday and there could be a few reasonably dry days closer to normal temperatures followed by wetter spells as the warmth fades out of the picture altogether by about Tuesday 24th. Some rather cold days are indicated after that, so this brief taste of summery temperatures next week is not the start of any prolonged warm spell. I do expect another one or perhaps two warm spells in May though as we balance the accounts after very cold weather in February and March (and the first week of April too for that matter, also this past few days has only been slightly warmer in western counties while staying chilly near the east coast, a side effect of the previous cold weather making the Irish Sea rather chilly at about 8 degrees).

My local weather was overcast with some morning rain that mixed in a few melting snowflakes at times, nothing very heavy and it ended for the day by lunchtime, but failed to clear up with wispy low cloud below a higher overcast layer at mountain peak height. The natives are getting restless at the slow pace of spring. Sound familiar?

M.T. Cranium

Saturday, 14 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Intervals of cloud and hazy sunshine, with spotty drizzle at times in western counties mainly, then increasing cloud, becoming windy, southeast 50-70 km/hr, rain becoming persistent by late in the day as it spreads into the western counties by evening. Highs 12 to 14 C.

TONIGHT ... Rain (about 10 to 20 mm) spreading gradually further east, reaching east Ulster after midnight, lows 5 to 8 C and winds southeast 50 to 70 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, rain ending for a time with a few showers followed by more intervals of rain, with gusty south to southwest winds 60 to 90 km/hr, and highs 13 to 15 C. Rain may be heavier in western counties where 10 to 20 mm additional can be expected.

MONDAY ... Further rain at times, some heavy falls possible in west-central counties, with thunder at times, about 30 mm rainfalls can be expected in parts of the west, 10 to 15 mm east, morning lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine at times, possible heavy showers or thunderstorms in western counties, lows 10 to 13 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY will see warmer conditions inland, highs 18 to 21 C. There may be some outbreaks of thundery showers mainly in the western counties. Coastal areas could be a lot cooler with low cloud and sea fog. In parts of southern Britain and northern France, the warmth may be record-breaking with highs there possibly reaching 25 C both days.

FRIDAY will see some showers and a cooling trend back to more normal highs of 13 to 17 C. (falling to 18-20 C in Britain)

OUTLOOK calls for some sun at times over the weekend of 21st-22nd, highs near 15 C, then frequent rain and cooler into the final week of April, highs near 12 C.

My local weather on Friday was overcast with occasional light rain but mainly dry, and continued cool with a high of about 6 C. Severe storms erupted over the central plains states, with some reports of tornadoes in Arkansas, Louisiana, Texas and Oklahoma on Friday. This front will reach Alabama by late Saturday with further severe storms expected. The same storm is bringing heavy rain to the lower Great Lakes region with sleet and snow further north.

M.T. Cranium

Sunday, 15 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Variable cloud, rain becoming more showery for a time then resuming with some heavier bursts developing across west Munster into Connacht by late afternoon, as winds veer gradually to become southwest 60 to 90 km/hr, highs 13 to 15 C. Rain may be heavier in western counties where 10 to 20 mm additional can be expected.

TONIGHT ... Occasional rain, mild, lows 10 to 12 C. Winds southwest 50 to 80 km/hr, backing more southerly by early morning.

MONDAY ... Further rain at times, some heavy falls possible in west-central counties, with thunder at times, about 30 mm rainfalls can be expected in parts of the west, 10 to 15 mm east, morning lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C. There could be a few brighter intervals at times near the east coast although not entirely rain-free there either.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine at times, possible heavy showers or thunderstorms in western counties, lows 10 to 13 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be warm with outbreaks of heavy and thundery showers in western counties, some sunny intervals central and eastern, highs 18 to 20 C except closer to 13 C near southeast and south coasts, in moderate southeast to south winds 40 to 60 km/hr.

THURSDAY will see further but more isolated thundery showers and warm temperatures around 18 to 20 C.

FRIDAY will bring a few brief showers and somewhat cooler temperatures with clearing skies and highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY is likely to continue fair and dry with highs around 15 C.

SUNDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain by later afternoon with highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK for the following week is for cooler weather to return and more frequent rain again, highs generally 11 to 14 C, which is back to slightly below average after a five-day warm spell. On the whole these conditions should bring the spring season a bit closer to normal pace, I would expect that if it is currently 2-3 weeks behind a normal pace, it may catch up to being about a week delayed with some rapid leaf and bloom development during the warmer days next week.

In Britain, it looks warm enough around Wednesday and Thursday to threaten long-standing daily or even monthly records in some parts, but I don't think the degree of warmth in Ireland will be quite as exceptional relative to Irish records because the main path of the very warm air is a bit too far east -- it will certainly be above average for several days though which in itself is quite unusual in recent months.

My local weather felt a bit like spring on Saturday, although still cooler than average for here at 10 C, with extensive cloud, mist and light rain at times. There has been a severe snow and ice storm across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes regions, Green Bay WI had over 30 cms of snow and southern Ontario to just north of Chicago has seen heavy sleet and some freezing rain, luckily a lot of the precipitation that could have been ice fell as pellets instead and those don't do as much damage to trees or hydro-electric lines. The storm is blizzard-like in Minnesota and maximum temperatures for the day have set new late season records (-4 C is typical, normal at this time of year is 12 C so a 16 degree anomaly). But at the same time, it was 30 C in Washington DC in the warm sector. Storms continue to rumble east into Alabama and Georgia but the outbreak has not been overly severe, more like "heavy" than severe on Saturday.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 16 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Some sunny breaks this morning in east, otherwise overcast with further rain at times, some heavy falls possible in west-central counties, with thunder at times, about 30 mm rainfalls can be expected in parts of the west, 10 to 15 mm east by evening, highs near 15 C. Strong southerly winds developing, 60 to 100 km/hr, highest gusts near west coast and parts of south coast.

TONIGHT ... Further rain, windy, very mild. Winds continuing southerly 60 to 90 km/hr. Lows 10 to 13 C.

TUESDAY ... Hazy sunshine at times, possible heavy showers or thunderstorms in western counties, lows 10 to 13 C and highs 15 to 18 C.

WEDNESDAY will be warm with outbreaks of heavy and thundery showers in western counties, some sunny intervals central and eastern, lows 11 to 14 C, and highs 18 to 20 C except closer to 13 C near southeast and south coasts, in moderate southeast to south winds 40 to 60 km/hr. Potential for 10-20 mm rain near west coast and into parts of Ulster, but much less elsewhere. (southern parts of Britain will warm to record highs of 23 to 26 C).

THURSDAY will see further but more isolated thundery showers and warm temperatures around 18 to 20 C. Lows 8 to 11 C where clear, and 11 to 14 C further west. (southern parts of Britain will remain very warm 23 to 26 C).

FRIDAY will bring a few brief early morning showers and somewhat cooler temperatures with clearing skies and highs near 14 C.

SATURDAY is likely to continue fair and dry with highs around 15 C.

SUNDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain by later afternoon with highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK for the following week is for somewhat cooler weather to return and more frequent rain again, highs generally 12 to 15 C, but there may be some decent sunny intervals at times, the change will not be all the way back to the recent overcast and heavy rainfalls.

My local weather on Sunday was overcast with light rain or drizzle at times and reasonably mild at 10 C. Spring is in no rush around here but most of the snow has disappeared in the valley, and is melting at a moderate pace from higher slopes. There have been several highway closures further west due to mudslides as the melt has been faster (the Okanagan valley is often several degrees warmer than our higher valley region). The eastern snow and ice storm has almost come to its end but not before obliterating a record at Green Bay WI where almost 60 cms of snow fell in the past three days. Huge drifts in 80 km/hr winds have stranded travellers in northern Wisconsin and parts of Minnesota, and ice damage is considerable in Michigan and Ontario (although they continued to get more ice pellets than freezing rain which on the whole was a better outcome). Toronto had 5 cms of sleet on the ground, it looks like snow in pictures but it's actually sleet and has the moisture equivalent of about 40 cms of snow so very dense. The warm sector of this storm collapsed today and places around Washington DC got much cooler air from the east before the cold front from the west could reach them. This has set off some heavy storms in Virginia and North Carolina. If you're travelling to New York later today expect windy and cool wet weather with highs about 10 C.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 17 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... The last of the rain will end soon in eastern counties, then overcast skies will begin to break to partly cloudy with hazy sunshine at times, but heavy showers or thunderstorms could develop by afternoon and evening in parts of the south, spreading further north mostly to western counties, with warmer highs of 15 to 18 C. The winds will also ease to southerly 40 to 60 km/hr, freshening again by late afternoon in some western counties.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy east, overcast west with occasional rain, very mild with lows 12 to 14 C.

WEDNESDAY will be warm with outbreaks of heavy and thundery showers in western counties, possibly confined to west coast as the track of this wave producing rainfall will be just off the coast, highs 14 to 17 C associated with this rainfall, and further east there will be some sunny intervals for central and eastern counties, with warm highs 17 to 19 C except closer to 13 C near southeast and south coasts, in moderate southeast to south winds 40 to 60 km/hr. There may be an interval of stronger winds during the morning hours near the west coast with gusts to 100 km/hr briefly. Potential for 10-20 mm rain near west coast and into parts of Ulster, but much less elsewhere. (southern parts of Britain will warm to highs of 20 to 24 C).

THURSDAY will be mostly sunny with some cloudy intervals, isolated showers, and continuing quite warm, lows 10 to 14 C and highs 17 to 19 C. Not as windy with southwest breezes 30 to 50 km/hr. (southern parts of Britain will remain very warm 21 to 24 C).

FRIDAY will bring a few brief early morning showers and somewhat cooler temperatures with lows near 8 C, sunshine from clearing skies during the day, and highs near 15 C.

SATURDAY is likely to continue fair and dry with lows 6 to 9 C and highs around 15 C.

SUNDAY will bring increasing cloud and rain by later afternoon with lows near 10 C and highs near 15 C.

OUTLOOK calls for mild and overcast weather with rain at times for the first two days of next week but a cooling trend as stronger west to northwest winds develop, bringing temperatures down slightly each day, eventually highs only 9 to 12 C by later in the week.

My local weather was mostly cloudy with passing showers from a south to southeast direction, misty at times, and highs near 9 C. The Great Lakes storm has pretty much snowed itself out and a rain-snow mixture has moved off into New England and eastern Canada. It remains unseasonably cold in the wake of this storm and another minor disturbance is expected late Wednesday with more sleet or snow possible around the lower Great Lakes from that. Warm and dry weather will develop further west over central regions of the U.S.

M.T. Cranium

Wednesday, 18 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Warm and breezy with some sunshine at times in the eastern half of the country, outbreaks of rain with chance of thunder near west coast (10-20 mm potential), but this rain will track north and should avoid most of central and all of eastern counties. Winds southerly about 40 to 60 km/hr for most, but a narrow band of gusty and strong southerly winds is expected to accompany the leading edge of the rainfall from about Cork north to Galway and Mayo during the morning, some gusts to 80 km/hr likely there. This won't persist too long and winds will fall back to more moderate levels in those counties. Highs will range from 15 C in the rain near west coast to 18 or even 19 C inland south, central and about 17 C closer to the east coast, but only about 13 C on the outer south coast.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, mild, becoming less windy. The last of any rain, light by evening, will move off to the north. Lows 8 to 11 C.

THURSDAY ... Sunny intervals, some patchy cloud but sea fog or low cloud may drift inland from south coast and near outer portions of any other coasts, as sea fog will be widespread. Warm especially inland with highs 17 to 20 C. Quite a bit cooler in some coastal areas in onshore sea breezes, highs could be 12 C in some cases.

FRIDAY ... Cloudy intervals then clearing again, after morning lows of 7 to 10 C, becoming just about as warm but perhaps a degree or two down from Thursday's highs at 14 to 18 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny with increasing afternoon cloud, outbreaks of light rain by evening. Lows 7 to 10 C and highs 14 to 17 C.

SUNDAY ... Occasional showers, highs near 14 C.

MONDAY ... Variable cloud, some showers developing and highs near 14 C.

TUESDAY ... Partly cloudy, breezy, somewhat cooler with showers and moderate westerly winds, highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cool for the rest of next week but moderating somewhat towards the final weekend of April, highs may only reach about 10 or 11 C around Thursday then it should warm back to around 15 C by the weekend. The coolest part of the week will also be quite windy with a risk of hail in any showers.

My local weather on Tuesday was mostly cloudy with a few sprinkles of light rain and highs near 9 C.

... taking a short vacation break, will arrange for forecasts through to the weekend, returning by Monday ...

sryanbruen

Thursday, 19 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

As you know, MT has taken a short break. He has asked me to fill in for him here 'til he comes back.

TODAY .... Similar to yesterday with the majority of places waking up to cloudy conditions. The cloud will produce drizzle in localised parts mainly around the midlands and the west. As the day goes on, clearer air will ascend northwards from the south in light southerly winds. The sun at this time of year is as strong as it is in August so therefore, once in it, temperatures can rise high with 20c certainly not being ruled out. Temperatures of 18 or 19c quite wide across the midlands and inland eastern counties once the sun comes out. Fairly breezy conditions out to the west will keep things cooler here in the mid teens around 14-16c mostly but all places should see some pleasant weather by the afternoon and evening.

TONIGHT .... Chance of fog and mist develops but dry with minimums dropping to between 4-7c generally, rather cooler than last night making for more comfortable sleeping.

FRIDAY .... Mix of cloud and sunny intervals across the board. Cloud most likely persistent during the morning as a result of the overnight fog and mist. This should burn back as the day goes like the previous two days. We cut off the southerly flow making winds variable in direction and anticyclonic overall leaving Ireland in a nice setup for a brief period of time. Daytime temperatures between 14-18c but sun could make all the difference and higher temperatures are a possibility. With this comes a cost however as under this high pressure, it will become cold on Friday night with air minimums dropping to 2-6c. Grass frost will develop though as skies will be clear unlike the preceding two nights.

SATURDAY ... Starting off sunny for the majority of places but quickly becoming cloudier as rain invades in from the southeast spreading to most by the evening. This rain is rather light in nature. Warm and humid day with maximums between 14-17c.

SUNDAY .... As the rain clears, sunshine and showers develop but also much cooler as the winds have veered to a westerly direction, a familiar sight to us that has been unusually absent this Spring so far. These westerlies will be moderate to fresh making it blustery. The showers will bring rainfall totals of 1-5mm mainly so for many, not all that heavy but they may become frequent which will pep up the totals over time. Temperatures in the range of 10-13c.

MONDAY .... Showers continue to roll in from the west on fresh westerly breezes with maximums in the 10-13c range again.

TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY .... Heavier showers for a time as the pressure drops somewhat further whilst conditions continue to be blustery on a westerly airstream. With these showers comes the chance of hail. Models show temperatures in the single figures but these tend to undercook the temperatures as has been shown by yesterday as one example when Phoenix Park reached a maximum of 20.0c (as well as Malin Head) which made it the warmest day in Ireland since last October and the expected temperatures were to be around 16 or 17c for here. As a result, I don't think temperatures will be as low as 8 or 9c during the day, more likely within 10-13c like earlier in the week. These values are not far off of where they should be for the time of year but with the warm weather of this week, you will get a noticeable cooler feel.

FURTHER OUTLOOK .... As always, everything beyond here is up in the air but the most likely scenario for us is for the weather to continue to be changeable with more sunshine and showers. The models keep hinting at a northerly shot for the end of the month into May which would give a chance of snow on higher ground and daytime temperatures down into single figures. Right now, I see this as a very small chance. There's also another solution of the Azores High building from the south to give some settled and warmer conditions again but for the moment like the northerly, this remains a possibility and nothing more.

Basically for now following the warm interlude this week, our weather looks terribly average, who would have known?

sryanbruen

Friday, 20 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY .... Anticyclonic with widespread sunny spells developing once any mist and fog patches from overnight clear away though along southern coasts, it's possible that these may linger through the day which will suppress the temperatures down to around 12c. Otherwise dry and sunny with temperatures between 15-17c though that bit cooler around coasts exposed to the breeze.

TONIGHT .... Becoming cold with grass frost potential under clear skies. Air minimums dropping to between 2-5c but grass minimums could touch below 0c.

SATURDAY .... Starting off very pleasant with sunshine and temperatures rising fast in it. However, as showers begin to show up from the southeast towards midday and the afternoon, cloud increases. These showers will be weak in nature and overall a rather humid day with temperatures similar to today's values of 15-17c. Could get higher if the sun sticks around longer in the afternoon and 19c is certainly a possibility.

SUNDAY and NEXT WEEK .... I think that it's pretty straightforward to include the majority of next week here into one because the pattern is familiar, it's sunshine and showers. Cooler than this week with temperatures getting back down to those closer for the time of year in the 10-13c range but you will feel the chill on the moderate westerly breezes with air originating from the North Atlantic. Not a lot of variety from day to day but showers will intensify mid-week along with the pressure dropping.

FURTHER OUTLOOK .... Some agreement has started to appear on the settled spell solution that I hinted at yesterday. Heights over the Arctic seem to be lowering towards the end of this month and into May which in Winter would mean a mild and stormy setup a lot of the time. However, at this time of year, this is what you want to see if you want warmth as when heights tend to lower up there, the Azores throws up transient ridges to give us warm, settled conditions for brief periods of time.

If the heights are really low and the jet stream is tracking to the north, these ridges become more prolonged and we get an extended settled spell going. For the moment, the agreement is kind of inbetween the transient ridges and the extended spell of settled weather. I will need to see a lot more agreement for multiple days to start thinking about this myself but the fact that we've received some sort of agreement among models overnight is a good start.

In terms of my methodology, I cannot say anything for May unfortunately. May has been a very tricky month to call out since the start of the season and still continues to do so with little to no sign of what it could be like.

sryanbruen

Saturday, 21 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY .... Dry start widely with good sunny spells but chance of low cloud lingering in eastern and southern coasts. It looks as though now the showers that were supposed to come up from the southeast will stay in England and Wales where they will produce thunderstorms into Sunday. This will be very unusual to see given how April is not a month you normally associate with thunder. However, some rain will push into the west by the evening spreading eastwards overnight. As the cloud will approach during the hours where temperatures usually are at their highest levels of the day in the west, they will be around only seasonal averages here about 12 or 13c. Elsewhere in the sunshine, it will be warm with temperatures mostly around 15-17c but localised parts reaching up to maybe 18c. 19c is not out of the woods either.

TONIGHT .... Rain continues to push eastwards with a window of clearer conditions behind it but some scattered showers will follow too. With all the cloud, it will be a milder night with minimums not getting much below 7c as the winds veer to a southwesterly direction.

SUNDAY .... Blustery with sunshine and scattered showers here and there. Much cooler than recently with maximum temperatures during the day around 13 or 14c at most in the south whilst 11 or 12c in the north in moderate southwesterly winds. Once you get any sunshine, it won't feel too bad 'cause as a reminder, the sun is as strong now as it is in August. Continuing rather mild overnight.

MONDAY .... Generally cloudy with showers pepping up somewhat. Not much different from Sunday otherwise with similar temperature values of 11-14c.

TUESDAY .... Heavy showers across the country but brighter than Monday. In the brighter intervals, temperatures could rise somewhat up to 15 or even 16c in the south.

WEDNESDAY .... More showers but less heavy than Tuesday's ones with sunny spells. Similar temperatures again in the 11-14c range but could get higher in the south in the mid-Spring sunshine.

THURSDAY .... Further scattered showers and sunny spells with temperatures around average for the time of year, mostly 12-14c in moderate westerly breezes.

I see that the media have started printing out its usual misinformation on next week bringing back snow potential and subzero temperatures. Do not believe in any of it, it's not worth the paper it's printed on. The worst we could see is a grass frost around Wednesday night but other than that, it's a very typical Irish week all around with a zonal pattern in charge bringing sunshine and showers. Whilst the showers will be heavy from time to time especially in the north and west, rainfall totals won't be that bad as they might seem here. In fact, parts of the east and south will have a very dry week with less than 50% of their average rainfall possible.

Now that the agreement is gone just like that on the models, I think we can say that there is zero certainty on where we will go at the end of April into the start of May. They keep throwing up different solutions from run to run, from model to model. Therefore, I would personally not read too much into it and stay far away from the media as possible in regards to weather. I don't have a long range outlook as a result for you today here, we'll have to nowcast it for the moment and just wait.

sryanbruen

Sunday, 22 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland

TODAY .... The remains of the overnight rain should clear the east during the morning leaving the country with sunshine and scattered showers. These showers will be heavy in parts of the north and west but lighter in other places. Cooler than recently with temperatures getting up to 14c at best in the south and 11c in the north on fairly brisk to moderate southwesterly breezes.

TONIGHT .... Mostly dry and rather mild with lowest temperatures dropping to 5c. Moderate westerly to southwesterly breezes continuing.

MONDAY .... Mostly cloudy with scattered showers though some to the southeast may stay dry all day long. Nevertheless, don't think in the drier spots you'll be able to catch a glimpse of sunshine because it will be quite an uneventful day overall with temperatures mostly 12 or 13c but getting up to 15c in the south possibly. Higher temperatures than 13 or 14c will really depend on any possible sunshine.

TUESDAY .... Sunshine and showers, becoming heavier in the north and west in particular for a time. Much brighter than Monday. This way with the sun, temperatures are more likely to rise up to 15 or 16c in brisk southwesterly winds again.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY .... Sunshine and showers is the main headline of the days with various dry intervals. Feeling cool in the wind and may get even chillier by the end of the week as the wind veers more to a northwesterly pulling in polar maritime air from off the North Atlantic. This would mean temperatures during the day be more like 9-12c and nightime temperatures around 1-4c with grass frost potential increasing. This is a low risk for the moment anyway as the most likely scenario is for a continuation of westerlies feeding in sunshine and showers with close to average temperatures for the time of year in between the 12-14c range. Typical April weather all in all but rainfall totals will be on the small side.

For next weekend, the models want the winds to turn to a northwesterly then a brief northerly to northeasterly shot bringing down some very chilly air. However, after this, they show a transient ridge developing from the Azores to give us some settled weather following this during the first few days of May. This is just a solution for now as I explained yesterday, the uncertainty is high. No changes at all in the indexes i.e. the Arctic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation over the past few days. The majority of the ensembles are pointing at them both on the positive to neutral side which is only good for warmth making blocking difficult to occur and cold to flood down into the mid-latitudes where Ireland lies. I am really trying hard to make the forecast seem interesting but it proves difficult because it's going to be a very average spell of weather this week for the Emerald Isle.

M.T. Cranium

Monday, 23 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


Many thanks to sryanbruen for providing you with forecasts while I enjoyed some long overdue rest and relaxation. Not entirely by accident, the weather was sunny and reasonably warm in Oregon where we went, both on the coast and inland. It was close to 20 C each day we were away with cool nights around 2 C. Spring is well advanced anywhere south of about Spokane WA and making progress up here now too, but we are just seeing the first faint signs of leaf development after so many weeks (here) of sub-normal temperatures. Oregon coast may rival your own in places, will have to make that comparison one day soon (I did see it once before but in a poor weather situation that made it more of a survival test than a holiday, pre-internet so making my own forecasts was not that simple a task .. the warm spell has pretty much run its course now and it's back to normal late April weather and even a touch below average at times, by a degree or two. Sryanbruen has learned at a remarkably young age to factor in the need to sell papers when reading weather stories in the unpopular press.

TODAY ... Rain will spread across the south, with 10 to 20 mm likely, moderate southwest to west winds 40 to 60 km/hr and perhaps a few breaks in the overcast at either end of the day in the east, just in the late afternoon though for the southwest. Highs 12 to 14 C. Further north, variable cloud with more isolated showers, 3 to 7 mm potential, westerly winds 40 to 60 km/hr and highs 10 to 12 C.

TONIGHT ... A few clear intervals followed by increasing cloud and a few showers mostly in the west by morning, lows 4 to 7 C.

TUESDAY ... Breezy, passing showers and possibly a weak thundershower in a few places, winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 12 to 15 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, showers or outbreaks of light rain, cool, lows 5 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers becoming more isolated, moderate west to northwest winds, lows 4 to 6 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY and SATURDAY will be rather cool days with risk of isolated frosts, lows otherwise 2 to 5 C, and highs near 11 C at best. Some light rain is likely each day mostly around the peak of afternoon warming when the cool air will bubble up to freezing levels and discharge a mixed load of rain and hail (mainly small ice pellets, nothing too severe). Winds will turn around gradually to the northeast placing Leinster in the prime position for these daytime showers.

FURTHER OUTLOOK calls for continued rather chilly weather with fairly frequent light rain, possibly a degree or two below normal into early May, with some quite cold air lurking not that far to the north by about the 4th of May, but as sryanbruen was noting, any kind of blocking in May can easily turn in your favour and produce some warmth like the recent spell of fine weather. I am expecting a bit of everything in May but that would include another warm spell at perhaps the same point in the month (or a few days earlier).

My own weather now that I'm back at home base was partly cloudy and chilly (perhaps because I got used to the warmth), the high was about 11 C but a cool breeze made it feel more like 5 C. Golf course opened on the weekend but I will wait until it soars into the high teens or even low 20s in an expected warm spell we are going to see this coming week.

M.T. Cranium

Tuesday, 24 April, 2018

Forecasts for Ireland


TODAY ... Breezy, passing showers and possibly a weak thundershower in a few places, although a more persistent light rain across southern counties this morning, winds westerly 40 to 60 km/hr, highs 12 to 15 C.

TONIGHT ... Partly cloudy, breezy, a few showers, lows 5 to 7 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Partly to mostly cloudy, showers or outbreaks of light rain, cool, lows 5 to 7 C and highs 11 to 14 C.

THURSDAY ... Partly cloudy, showers becoming more isolated, moderate west to northwest winds, lows 4 to 6 C and highs 10 to 13 C.

FRIDAY ... Some sunshine at first, then outbreaks of light rain, becoming heavier inland Leinster and east Ulster, and rather cool with lows about 1 to 4 C, highs 10 to 13 C.

SATURDAY ... Continued rather cool with lows 1 to 4 C, slight ground frosts possible, then variable cloud, showers heavier in Leinster than other places with better amounts of sunshine for western counties, highs 11 to 14 C. Light northeast winds 30 to 50 km/hr.

SUNDAY ... Variable cloud, showers, highs near 12 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... Rather cool at the end of April into early May, some chance of a warming trend developing into May but signals on different model guidance quite scattered at this point.

My local weather was ideal with sunshine, light winds and highs near 17 C. We are expecting this to continue all week, and the delayed spring blooming may finally catch up a little around here.