Snow potential this week.

ninebeanrows

Right i think it is time to post a new thread with regard to specifically the snow risk over the weekend and next week so we can have the Storm thread dedicated to tomorrows potentially damaging storm system.

With regard to the snowfall i think that some people will be surprised to learn that this westerly flow is likely to bring some areas large accumulation of snowfall.

850hpa temperatures will vary between -3c to -7c as small disturbances rattle along on the very unstable flow. Thicknesses will be very low and dewpoints hovering between 1c to -2c.

The days to watch for snowfall/wintry weather are first through Saturday night/ Sunday morning as the backwash of the storm brings in some very cold weather. Wintry showers will probably spread across the country with a small chance of the back edge of the rainband to turn to sleet/snow before it clears the east coast. Watch out for some falls up over the Wicklow mtns.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm362.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm363.gif

The Sunday is likely to be a blusterly, very cold day with temperatures dropping sharply in showers and maxima between 2-6c.

It is Sunday night and into Monday when a small shortwave disturbance with a spell of precipitation is expected to push up across the country from the south and spread into Britain.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm601.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm602.gif

This will push up against a cold frosty night and will fall as sleet and snow for many areas, obviously the higher up the better and all the usual caveats to be noted. However serious chance of some settling snow for many areas from Leinster, south Connacht and Munster from this spell.

Towards Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday there will be heavy wintry showers rattling across from the west with longer spells at times.

All in all lots of potential and i will say its a certainty that some areas will see a really nice fall of snow during the 4 days spell.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/uk_forecast_warnings.html

Supercell

Thanks WC , definitely reckon there are two areas of separate and exciting interest in the near future, ie the storm tomorrow and the snow potential early next week (starting Sunday).

darkman2

The best snow events are always the most marginal ones;)

Alot of potential on Sunday night. Not set in stone yet but id be reasonably confident of seeing some flakes.

Supercell

Those precip charts are notoriously inaccurate though the potential is there.
Looking at the Bracknell charts there only appears to be trof features forecast for Sunday night. While that's great for the west and north in a westerly flow the east is unlikely to see much unless we get anything frontal. That said winds will be strong so some showers should make it across but greatly reduced in strength.

That said - http://www.wzkarten.de/pics/brack2a.gif (image will update) for Tuesday shows an occluded front with low dam's, low dew points and marginal 850's is another matter altogether and presumably is what the irish met is hinting at.
One to watch for sure.

darkman2

Updated fax chart for Sunday Night and it's a good one IMO. We avoid the warm sector which is what we want

Supercell

Ohh , thats - interesting
Position can and will be different to currently forecast, Sunday model watching is gonna be exciting!

LEIN

Supercell wrote: »

Ohh , thats - interesting

If this event manages to miss me as they normally do you may find me and my daughter building a snow man in your front garden.

SpitfireIV

You'll have to forgive my lack of understanding of all this me-tur-logical :P

But I was just thinking, the cold spell we had a number of days back, would that have lowered the ground temps to any significant degree? Or would the recent mild and wet days have raised those temps again? Basically what I'm getting at is, would the previous cold spell be of any help to this upcoming one in helping any snow that (might)fall to stay?

ninebeanrows

Cracking fax chart. Cracker!:D

snowfan

Well guys you have to admit there are some interesting days ahead on the weather front!

First of all the impending storm and high winds for tomorrow Saturday , then followed by a possibility of my favourite weather...snow showers!

As someone just posted on another topic on this board, its ironic that after a week or so of cold non-descript weather over the Christmas/early January period, we could now be set for some snowfall

I note with interest the following quote from Met Eireann:

During Tuesday, wintry showers in the west and north are likely to spread to many other parts of the country, with a risk of significant snowfall. West to northwest winds will strengthen for a time also and it will bitterly cold.

Now this is not FI stuff that we had on this board back at Christmas. This is coming from our National Meterological Centre!!

BBC is also showing some snowfall for Ireland....

I am slightly hopeful so that this island will see some snowflakes over the coming few days...once tomorrrow's storm passes of course!

SnowFan

I'd imagine ground temps are down alright croppy-mothman would be the one to ask.But it would be mostly immaterial to what happens to the snow if it falls and whether it settles.That will be more affected by air temp,the heaviness of the precip dewpoints etc.

I see the lovely Eveyln Cusack did the 6:1 forecast tonight-She's the ramper extraordinaire of Glasnevin and she didn't disappoint tonight

Yes I like the look of that fax chart above.I'd agree that it's marginal at all times but hey settling snow is settling snow...it doesnt matter where it comes from!
It will be interesting to see what the actual verification of dew points will be in this flow given the long maratime track.

snowfan

To be honest at this stage, I just want to see the snow falling from the sky...not particularly bother if it settles!

PS - the sight of snow falling is a wonder of nature

SF

homersimpson

What's the chances of seeing some snow in Donegal over the next few days???

darkman2

Depends on which part of Donegal you are in I think. Windward coasts are always vulnerable to a more rainy mix but go a couple miles inland and you have a much better chance and, of course, higher ground. The showers won't be of sleet or snow all the time. Id say there will be some rain and hail in there too.


You have a good chance but don't be getting the sledge out just yet;)

pretty good homer,I should imagine.
Put it to you this way-theres a bigger chance up there than down my way!
It's not guaranteed but I wouldnt like to be betting against it.

darkman2

lol id rate your chance Sunday night higher then ours BB. I wouldn't mind the extra few meters of elevation.

Sierra Oscar

I wonder what the chance for snow in North Tipp is?

darkman2

Very good chance IMO. The midlands will do the best out of this setup. It always does.

danni2

darkman2 wrote: »

Very good chance IMO. The midlands will do the best out of this setup. It always does.

Thats great news darkman2 as I live right in the centre of Ireland:D

darkman2

We all know how Birr got it's name - don't we?


Brrrrrrr:D

fozzle

Bah, midlands and Wicklow don't need any more snow! Can we have some in Sligo?

darkman2

The 18z GFS has deepened our little lp a bit too much therefore bringing in a bigger warm sector






Very delicate scenario we need for snow. Just the wrong side of marginal on this run. Hopefully the UKMO and other models are closer to the mark.

Supercell

fozzle wrote: »

Bah, midlands and Wicklow don't need any more snow! Can we have some in Sligo?

Lol!!, Wicklow will never be in a situation that it doesn't need "more snow", just for that I've ordered two extra foot of snow here next week that you were going to get until that post :pac::pac::D
Nacho don't you dare go forecasting the stuff in Mayo now!

smashey

darkman2 wrote: »

Depends on which part of Donegal you are in I think. Windward coasts are always vulnerable to a more rainy mix but go a couple miles inland and you have a much better chance and, of course, higher ground. The showers won't be of sleet or snow all the time. Id say there will be some rain and hail in there too.


You have a good chance but don't be getting the sledge out just yet;)

Deleted User wrote: »

pretty good homer,I should imagine.
Put it to you this way-theres a bigger chance up there than down my way!
It's not guaranteed but I wouldnt like to be betting against it.

darkman2 wrote: »

lol id rate your chance Sunday night higher then ours BB. I wouldn't mind the extra few meters of elevation.

/smashey prays...

Please let them be right

peasant

Well, both met eireann as well as metcheck have downgraded this spectacle somewhat in their latest updates.

Cold, blustery and wintery showers (no mention of accumulations) it is for now.

nacho libre

I'm confident we'll get accumulations at lower levels from Monday night onwards.

Trotter

Lads I'll ask the annual question... Any snow for Waterford city?

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

Lads I'll ask the annual question... Any snow for Waterford city?

For what its worth....

Metcheck has Snow Showers for Monday afternoon/evening.

Accuweather shows no snow for Waterford.

I suppose it'll be a nowcast situation but there might be a shower or two.

nacho libre

yeah i doubt there'll be much snow down in Waterford from a north westerly airstream. at best you'll get the odd passing shower. my advice is to take a trip up to sligo or donegal if you really want to see some snow:)

Trotter

:rolleyes: Stupid Waterford weather... cold rain, warm rain, mild rain.. no rain but full cloud cover, more rain..

Even the birds are getting SAD.

ninebeanrows

Now the models in chaos between tomorrow nights shortwave.

GFS = Far too mild away from north coast.

UKM = Possible snow event for all away from south and southeast coast.

Impossible to forecast.