HPAT

bythewoods

I wish I'd tried harder to get 600 points this year.
Those 10 extra bad boys could have made some difference to me.

(I already have 550 from last year, my HPATaroonie is 723. 733 would probably guarantee me, I'm not safe with 723)

dontlikeurmam

dontlikeurmam wrote: »

Aren't those IQ graphs built up over years to produce a standard measure of the IQ of the population?

Some are, yah. But you could build up a normal distribution of IQ scores from any sized sample. For example, if you had 100 people, and administered a test which would give them some sort of a score, you would have to class them according to what the most common score was. If for the 100 people, the most common score was 15/20 (some arbitrary number) then this would be given a value of 100 on your scale. Then, depending on what "size" standard deviation you used, people with lower or higher scores would go either side of that 100 score, respectively. This would then be a normal distribution if it kept to a few simple rules, one is that 68% of the test takers would fall within 1 standard deviation of the mean (i.e. 100), generally, IQ tests use a standared deviation of 15, so that means that 68% of test takers would have an IQ between 85 and 115.

So in essence, it doesn't really matter what sized sample you used.

...I would expect that the percentiles for the Hpat are more of a straight forward indication of your score in comparison to others, as in all the results are divided up or split up into one hundred roughly similar groups and then percentiles are allocated to the groups.

I completely disagree. I'd say that every single candidate was measured relative to each other; I doubt it was split into groups.

Assume for a minute that the sample was split into groups of 100 candidates. Just say in one test centre the candidates were of a particularly low standard, they would be marked relative to each other, meaning the the most common score would be given a mark of 150, and then better or worse scores would go either side. Now, if in another test centre the candidates were of a particularly high standard, they would be marked the same; i.e. the most common score would be given a value of 150. Now, relative to the first test centre, the second group of candidates have done much better, but they are getting the same end score. This isn't fair. It's for this reason that every candidate was marked relative to each other, and that the overall cohort wasn't split into individual groups. (This is my guess anyway).

I think it would explain why the percentiles for the 50%ish mark are fairly set (around 150?) and the percentiles for the high marks are over a range, e.g 99% between 195 and 202.

Whatever score was most common will receive a mark of 150, and depending on what standard deviation they've used, people who have done better will get a higher end mark and vice versa.

Zenith23

I'm expecting to get about 570 in the Leaving Cert but I only got a 126 in the frigging HPAT. Do I have a chance to get medicine in Trinity?

funkylana

Zenith23 wrote: »

I'm expecting to get about 570 in the Leaving Cert but I only got a 126 in the frigging HPAT. Do I have a chance to get medicine in Trinity?

To be frank you probably don't have a chance of getting in anywhere. Sorry to be so upfront about it but thats just the way some people have been screwed over by the hpat- including me.
Totally sucks, but what can we do.

poppy08

funkylana wrote: »

To be frank you probably don't have a chance of getting in anywhere. Sorry to be so upfront about it but thats just the way some people have been screwed over by the hpat- including me.
Totally sucks, but what can we do.

i'm a repeat, expect 560 points , hpat score 158....opinion...any hope?

pathway33

Zenith23 wrote: »

I'm expecting to get about 570 in the Leaving Cert but I only got a 126 in the frigging HPAT. Do I have a chance to get medicine in Trinity?

554 + 126 = 680. Very unlikely .

Options

1. hang out for the year doing the hpat in 2010 and get 176. Should get you in with 554
2. start a degree so if you do same in hpat next year at least you have the option of graduate entry to medicine
3. look abroad

not great options

funkylana

poppy08 wrote: »

i'm a repeat, expect 560 points , hpat score 158....opinion...any hope?

To be honest i'm not sure- i wouldn't get my hopes up though. Still don't take my word for it, and DON'T take medicine off your cao. I'm just going by my own calculations, and by the calculations of others- generally people are saying you only really have a chance if you get 720+....but wait to see what happens.
Anyhoo, good luck:cool:

pathway33

poppy08 wrote: »

i'm a repeat, expect 560 points , hpat score 158....opinion...any hope?

i'd say there's 'decent hope' with 710

pathway33

funkylana wrote: »

people are saying you only really have a chance if you get 720

i think it will be lower because and this is only anecdotal but i have heard of 3 people in the 90% percentile who do not have medicine as their first choice. One has dentistry and the other 2 are veterinary medicine. They are certainly interested in med but the HSE has put them off. Now if vet is 570 and they get 560 which gets them into med then that's bad news for you guys but the statisticians seem to be forgetting that the percentiles also include people who may not even accept medicine if they get it.

funkylana

pathway33 wrote: »

i think it will be lower because and this is only anecdotal but i have heard of 3 people in the 90% percentile who do not have medicine as their first choice. One has dentistry and the other 2 are veterinary medicine. They are certainly interested in med but the HSE has put them off. Now if vet is 570 and they get 560 which gets them into med then that's bad news for you guys but the statisticians seem to be forgetting that the percentiles also include people who may not even accept medicine if they get it.

but at the same time its not going to be a substantial amount of people who don't have it as their first choice and yet did well in the hpat- it could give some people an ounce of hope, but not me- medicine in ireland is pretty much gone out the window for me.
ah well, need to stop crying about it and move on to plan B.

drrkpd

Apparently the 2900-3000 is correct so all you mathematicians will have to redo your sums.
The results are to quote "a sigmoid curve" - I will leave that to the mathematicians as well.
But percentiles to me are exactly that -percentages out of 100 who sat the exam.
So each percentile should contain 30 people not 35 as already guessed- more hope for many I would have thought!!!
Now if we could just confirm that Qualifax is correct in 405 Undergraduate Places the statisticians could swing into action!!

A Neurotic

GO STATISTICIANS GO!

Just tell me what I want to hear this time

holadivaldfe

don't forget that postgrads also sat the hpat and there are well over 100 postgrad places, i think there might even be over 150 places. there may well be a lot of postgrads in the high percentiles and i thought the 2900 figure was the exact number who sat the hpat. which means there are 29 people per percentile. this means 580 people made the top 20% but if it's true about some people scoring high who don't have med as their 1st choice then, there might be hope. furthermore, some don't pass maths and some people accidentally didn't sit their eng, irish, math or other language this year which rules them out unless their 1st leaving cert was good.

does anybody know how many people, or what percentage of students usually score above 550 in the leaving?? that might also help us make guesstimations of the marks needed to secure a place in medicine this year.

whadabouchasir

A Neurotic wrote: »

GO STATISTICIANS GO!

But where?really though statistical predictions are not really that accurate since they don't take into account the amount of people who did well in the HPAT but average in the LC or those that did well in the HPAT but now no longer don't want to do medicine or those that will be excluded because of Garda vetting and those who only put 2 or 3 colleges down.

pathway33

funkylana wrote: »

but at the same time its not going to be a substantial amount of people who don't have it as their first choice and yet did well in the hpat

well 3,300 ish had med as their first choice and over 10,000 had med as a lower choice. Who is to say that of the 2,900 that showed up for the exam, at least 20% (580) of them were from the 10,000 bunch and who is to say that 50% (290) of this 20% are not in the 90% percentile?

Now if those 290 people don't get offered med because they get their first choice. If they are in the 90% percentile then 75% of them are heading for 580 in the leaving. They are out of the equation.

pathway33

holadivaldfe wrote: »

does anybody know how many people, or what percentage of students usually score above 550 in the leaving?? that might also help us make guesstimations of the marks needed to secure a place in medicine this year.

there is a link to that but i have forgotten where. try www.cao.ie and national stats on the drop down list?

smndly

Is there a 100th percentile or is the 99th percentile the highest?? :pac:

whadabouchasir

smndly wrote: »

Is there a 100th percentile or is the 99th percentile the highest?? :pac:

If you got the highest mark in the country then you would get 100%,since you did better than everyone else.

holadivaldfe

thanks i found it. based on the fact that more people are sitting the l.c this year, and there will be many people who got 550 to 565 from last year and the previous year i'm guessing there will be thousands who get the l.c points of 550 and more, and therefore i'm guessing that not only would 720 be the minimum required points but maybe 730 or more. not good news for most. i hope i'm wrong. maybe there's loads of postgrads in the top 20% or maybe many in the top 20 % wont touch 500 points but i'm pretty sure they will, most of them anyway. oh well, hope there are some detailed stats to mull over and otherwise i'm going to try and forget about it. nothing we can do! oh and another thing that might factor people out are those who only applied to a few irish med schools as opposed to all of them and those who got better offers in the uk etc. i for one will take an offer i have for a med school in london if i get in, leaving someone behind me in the irish que a chance to step up! good luck everyone!

holadivaldfe

holadivaldfe wrote: »

does anybody know how many people, or what percentage of students usually score above 550 in the leaving??

It was 2.6% (or something very close) in 2008.

whadabouchasir wrote: »

If you got the highest mark in the country then you would get 100%,since you did better than everyone else.

As far as I know, the 99th percentile is the highest possible. It's possible to get 100% in the test alright, but this would place you in the 99th percentile. If you were in the 100th percentile, you would have gotten a higher score than everybody, including yourself, as you're included in the sample. And, as is obvious, it's impossible to get a higher score than yourself.

Again, this depends on whatever way they carry out their statistics, but in most tests, the 99th percentile is the highest possible. It also depends on what way they round off their figures.

holadivaldfe

-JammyDodger- wrote: »

It was 2.6% (or something very close) in 2008.



As far as I know, the 99th percentile is the highest possible. It's possible to get 100% in the test alright, but this would place you in the 99th percentile. If you were in the 100th percentile, you would have gotten a higher score than everybody, including yourself, as you're included in the sample. And, as is obvious, it's impossible to get a higher score than yourself.

Again, this depends on whatever way they carry out their statistics, but in most tests, the 99th percentile is the highest possible. It also depends on what way they round off their figures.

that makes sense. so does that mean if there was 2900 people sitting the hpat there's 29 in each percentile and instead of 580 in the top 20% there's (29x19) 551 people in the country who count themselves amoung the top 20%??? that narrows it down a little.

am i right? ish?

holadivaldfe

but i thought only 2900 sat the hpat in the end. is 3000 accurate and definite?

Zenith23

I heard it's possible to do a 2 year science course in Trinity and then go right into medicine the following year.

Is this true?

pathway33

holadivaldfe wrote: »

but i thought only 2900 sat the hpat in the end. is 3000 accurate and definite?

yes 2900 is what i heard. Where did 3000 come from?

2900 / 99 = 29.2929292929 people per percentile.

drrkpd

pathway33 wrote: »

yes 2900 is what i heard. Where did 3000 come from?

2900 / 99 = 29.2929292929 people per percentile.

official figure is 2900-3000 working on 3000 for ease of maths and also to use the biggest number to reflect worst possible denominator - all these are still better than 3400 initially thought!!!

holadivaldfe

holadivaldfe wrote: »

that makes sense. so does that mean if there was 2900 people sitting the hpat there's 29 in each percentile and instead of 580 in the top 20% there's (29x19) 551 people in the country who count themselves amoung the top 20%??? that narrows it down a little.

drrkpd wrote: »

Need a mathematician here (didn't someone posting have an actuary to help them??) but if correct then 3000 divided by 99= 30.3 people per centile-still better than the 35 people were originally thinking.

Yes, each percentile will contain the same number of people (although each percentile will have a different range). Although the 99th percentile is the highest possible, I'm still not sure about dividing the total by 99 instead of 100 to work out the amount in each percentile. It makes intuitive sense to divide by 99, but, I can't imagine it being called percentile if it was based on 99. Although, if for a sample of 3000, you divide by 100 and limit the maximum percentile to 99, 30 people suddenly disappear.

A Neurotic

-JammyDodger- wrote: »

Yes, each percentile will contain the same number of people (although each percentile will have a different range). Although the 99th percentile is the highest possible, I'm still not sure about dividing the total by 99 instead of 100 to work out the amount in each percentile. It makes intuitive sense to divide by 99, but, I can't imagine it being called percentile if it was based on 99. Although, if for a sample of 3000, you divide by 100 and limit the maximum percentile to 99, 30 people suddenly disappear.

OH F*CK

Camih

I got hpat yesterday, my score was 170 which is in the 81st percentile, wasnt really sure what that meant for me(either were my parents,they oooh-ed and aaah-ed but I knew that were about as clear as what that meant for my future as I was) but after reading all of these posts and that Irish Times article I feel that maybe there's hope for me.....IF I have nailed 550 in my LC,seems unlikely now but here's hoping!

So basically thanks to everyone else on this thread, felt yesterday like nobody else in Ireland even knew about this test, never mind cared about results...

Adventure

TCD - 700

UCD/UCC/NUI Galway - 690

RCSI - 685


That's what i predict for points.

holadivaldfe

i'd love it if u were right, but i would also eat my hat.