Flood risk: Overnight and into Saturday 16th.

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

I wonder will this August end up being wetter than the August of 1986:pac:

Already has in parts of the east, and with more to come, this August is likely to go down in the record books for that region I'm thinking.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Already has in parts of the east, and with more to come, this August is likely to go down in the record books for that region I'm thinking.

i hadn't thought of that, august 86 was probably wetter overall. whereas we'll probably find by the end of this month the northwest was much drier(bar todays exceptionally heavy rain)

Snowbie

Add another 7.9mm for today.
145.5mm for the month to date.

There is pure mud flowing off the green close by to my house. Rain has indeed churned up the ground like a plough around here. Have never witnessed the likes of rainfall and it's severity over a short space of time (couple of weeks) living around these parts all my life.

Attention now turns to Friday night into Saturday morning. SW according to GFS 18z output looks in for a pasting and spreads right up through the country later into Saturday morning. Not set in stone yet and time frame will alter in later runs but it can be certain a lot more rain is unleashed from the heavens this weekend.

Supercell

Connaught seems to be playing catchup in the rainfall stakes looking at the radar all day, must be some massive totals especially in hilly areas.

darkman2

Looks like there will be some respite today and during the day on Friday. There will still be some rain but not as significant as recent days. Friday night onward though is a different story and I can see why the Met are mentioning it so much. They reckon between 20 and 30mm could fall on Friday night and Saturday leading to flooding. I think it could be more then that and with the water table so high countrywide atm its a bit of a concern especially for those areas hit by flooding the last few days. Then another system coming in for Sunday and Monday. All looks a little ominous. Will post charts after the 12hrs GFS run.

darkman2

Tomorrow afternoon and evening


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn304.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3011.png

Thundery showers midlands and east

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn308.png
http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20080814/12/30/ukwind.png

Not likely to be severe but a risk none the less.

---

Tomorrow night

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn424.png


Heavy persistant rain in all areas


Saturday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn484.png

More heavy rain in the East and North


EDIT: Weather watch already out for NI

Thursday 14 August WEATHER WATCH Further heavy rain will affect Northern Ireland, southwest Scotland, northwest England and west Wales on Saturday. Up to 50mm is possible.

JanuarySnowstor

Well I've just scanned through the 12z runs and being honest I'm surprised it's so quiet on here.
They show severe flooding to me with persistent rain or thundery showers.
A repeat of last Saturday is very likely esp for parts of Dublin
The weather will be the main news story come Monday!

darkman2

In Northern Ireland they are talking about another 60mm of rain potentially tomorrow night and Saturday. If we get near that in Dublin then there will be far worse problems then last Saturday. The ground was not saturated prior to Saturday's event..........

Snowbie

GFS is plotting two seperate events for Firday evening into Saturday morning and Sunday.

The first all areas can expect some large totals, atm most likely the west NW and NI at highest risk.

On Sunday (again atm), the southern half of the country with highest risk.

DM, i think we should rename this thread sometime tomorrow to cover exact location when we are more sure?

cian1500ww

Will Saturday be the worst in terms of the amount of rainfall ?

darkman2

Snowbie wrote: »

DM, i think we should rename this thread sometime tomorrow to cover exact location when we are more sure?

Think its required alright to avoid any confusion and this could amount to an 'event' in its own right. Dont want to over do it of course. Some areas may get away lightly. The charts atm suggest that whilst further North is most at risk from rainfall - in reality everywhere will see some heavy rain and parts of Dublin are particularly vulnerable to flooding atm. The UKMO this evening is far worse for the East then the GFS.


So its basically tomorrow evening onward.....

Neamhshuntasach

From the charts does anybody know if we're gonna get lashed out of it on the hill tomorrow? i'm hoping for a dry spell between 4 and 6 over croker

JanuarySnowstor

Sorry, but going by the charts you will be completely lashed on at that time.
In fact there is a real risk of the game being abandoned / cancelled..............and the worst part is I aint joking
If I were you I'd pay extra and try get into the upper stands or else wear raingear

thomasj

What are the chances of it raining as per the levels laid out in the charts? would the charts be an accurate reflection and is the predicted rainfall not subject to change as it happens?

sorry if the questions sound stupid i'm new to this!

nilhg

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

From the charts does anybody know if we're gonna get lashed out of it on the hill tomorrow? i'm hoping for a dry spell between 4 and 6 over croker

Metcheck pull their data directly from GFS and is a good way of getting an idea of the likely rain, geep an eye on it though as it is still likely to change.

thomasj wrote: »

What are the chances of it raining as per the levels laid out in the charts? would the charts be an accurate reflection and is the predicted rainfall not subject to change as it happens?

sorry if the questions sound stupid i'm new to this!

I'm no expert but my feeling is that the models predict frontal rain quite well, but its almost impossible to predict showers, especially thundery ones.

thomasj

The Warning is out - met office

Issued at 15 August 2008 - 12:30
Warning of Severe Weather.
Valid from 1500 Friday 15/8/08 to 1200 Monday 18/8/08.

It will be very unsettled and changeable this weekend, with rainbelts set to move in across the country from the Atlantic from time to time, to be followed in turn by brighter more showery weather. The rainfall from the rain-belts and indeed some of the showers, will be heavy, with some thundery downpours at times. Totals in excess of 50mm are likely in some places, with parts of the East, North and West most at risk. The water table remains high and some further flooding can be expected.
An especially active rainbelt will move in off the Atlantic later today and tonight and will affect much of the country on Saturday, and so this is when the heaviest rainfall episode is likely to occur, with Leinster ( including Dublin), Ulster and parts of Connacht especially at risk.

Snowbie

One thing is certain is that the rain will be widespread later tonight and tomorrow. How heavy the rain is important but it's how long it is going to rain for is more significant. In fact most of the day the west NW N and east look like getting heavier bursts while all areas will be under cloud and rain for most if not all tomorrow Saturday.

GFS has been consistent so far but 18Z tonight(rolls out at 2230) should paint a better picture later, on intensity etc.

TheGreenGiant

i hope the match ain't canceled in Croker for the big game tomorrow! we are looking at a very wet day all in all

Neamhshuntasach

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Sorry, but going by the charts you will be completely lashed on at that time.
In fact there is a real risk of the game being abandoned / cancelled..............and the worst part is I aint joking
If I were you I'd pay extra and try get into the upper stands or else wear raingear

I guess i'll be bringing a rain jacket with me so. The upper stands don't compete with the atmosphere of the hill for me. It just means a quick stop home to get changed as opposed to my usual straight out on the sauce.

Kippure

Weather warnings have gone. By monday ireland will be one big puddle.

darkman2

Batten down the hatches is all I say. Another hour or 2 of dryness to go in Dublin and then the fun begins. Those in already flood effected areas in Leinster should have sandbags ready at this stage - if you dont you cant say you were not warned! As Snowbie says above - whilst the rain will be very heavy at times - its rather the sheer persistance forcast that is most worrying.

M.T. Cranium

Rainfall tonight and Saturday will probably average 35-40 mms across large parts of Ireland. The risk for Dublin to receive more will depend on how much development takes place tomorrow as the low gets closer, at present most of the moderate to heavy rain is well ahead of the low and would be into the Irish Sea and Northern Ireland by tomorrow afternoon. But there is some potential for heavy showers or storms to develop in eastern Ireland tomorrow mid-day as well.

Then a further 25-50 mms of rain seems likely on Sunday into Monday ahead of the next system, which is winding up like a hurricane over the mid-Atlantic. The strong winds from this will sweep around and hit only northwest France and the Channel, avoiding Ireland altogether, but with this intensity there will also be heavy rain developing across Ireland on Sunday.

I would join Darkman in saying that flood preparedness is very sensible at this time, for people who live in flood-prone areas, I would suggest moving valuable items to a higher floor or out of harm's way tonight just to be on the safe side, given that the water levels must already be quite high everywhere, this additional rainfall can only spread outside of its intended routes back to the sea from whence it came.

But look on the bright side, it will soon be winter, and that's a pretty warm, dry season.

RoisinD

Local warnings have gone out here.

Stay away from rivers, move animals to higher ground, only travel if necessary etc

darkman2

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Rainfall tonight and Saturday will probably average 35-40 mms across large parts of Ireland. The risk for Dublin to receive more will depend on how much development takes place tomorrow as the low gets closer, at present most of the moderate to heavy rain is well ahead of the low and would be into the Irish Sea and Northern Ireland by tomorrow afternoon. But there is some potential for heavy showers or storms to develop in eastern Ireland tomorrow mid-day as well.

Then a further 25-50 mms of rain seems likely on Sunday into Monday ahead of the next system, which is winding up like a hurricane over the mid-Atlantic. The strong winds from this will sweep around and hit only northwest France and the Channel, avoiding Ireland altogether, but with this intensity there will also be heavy rain developing across Ireland on Sunday.

Agree completely. Its the fact the water table is at its limit really that is probrably the biggest risk rather then absolute totals. Though 40 - 50mm is enough for some places on its own! We saw the effects of this on Tuesday after Saturdays rainfall. The rain was not partularly heavy but the same flooding occured in those areas hit last Saturday. Met Eireann says the water table is still very high and therefore it wont take much for renewed flooding. Hopefully though this is not the case and we escape the worst of it. Then, of course, Sunday......:rolleyes:

Better keep an eye on developments tonight though....I have put my garden on flood alert;)

darkman2

RoisinD wrote: »

move animals to higher ground,

Clearly your not from Dublin;) Cork?

RoisinD

darkman2 wrote: »

Clearly your not from Dublin;) Cork?

Neither - Clare:)

Snowbie

Attach show the precip rainfall across the country from 18z GFS.
The most intense rainfall shows up as the brighter colors.
Obviously mountainous and hilly areas will have the greatest accumulations but elsewhere should see over 25mm in the next 24hrs. GFS seems to have downgraded slightly in intensity from earlier runs from a wider portion of the country to sections for intense rainfall.

As the ground is saturated, flood prone areas are at risk once more.

Bmark

RoisinD wrote: »

Local warnings have gone out here.

Stay away from rivers, move animals to higher ground, only travel if necessary etc

Damn - my house is 15 ft from a river which has only ever broke the banks once in living memory - and ah the poor sheep - its about 3 miles to the top of the hill!! (and i live in Dublin !!):(

darkman2

The rain is quite showery in nature just now except in the West which is good however it may pick up a gear later. For now things seem alright.

Snowbie

Will post this one here as addon to my previous post.

Also lowish risk from the above rainfall attach of some of the rain tomorrow becoming convective with embedded Ts.