Flood risk: Overnight and into Saturday 16th.

darkman2

East and Southeast most prone to flooding and thunderstorms.

Storm 10

Looking at the regional forecast on Met Eireann it says any flooding it it happens will be in the South and the West where the worst of the rain will be, dont want anymore of it at this stage fed up with this s..t weather



Leinster
10 August 2008- updated at 17:00
Tonight

Becoming mostly dry for a time tonight as showers die away but further showers will develop in the west and south later in the night. Mild.


Grass Pollen Count

Low.
More Information Solar UV Index

Medium to high in any sunshine
UV Index
Tomorrow

Breezy and rather cloudy with showers or showery outbreaks of rain in the morning, some heavy. More persistent and, at times, heavy rain spreading from the west during the afternoon and evening.



Connacht
10 August 2008- updated at 18:00
Tonight

Showers becoming isolated but rain arriving in the west later; mild.


Grass Pollen Count

Low.
More Information Tomorrow

Heavy, locally thundery rain spreading east; flooding possible.

Damomanye

Surely the flood ravaged west limerick should also be a main focus here too?Maybe they should be issuing the sandbags again there.


.....cant believe im saying that in August :-(

Sierra Oscar

Met Eireann are warning of heavy rain.

Weather Warning - Issued at 11 August 2008 - 06:00

Risk of between 25 and 50 mm of rain in places in the period 0600 11/8/08 to 0600 12/8/08.
Rain heaviest in the western half of the country today and in Munster, Leinster and Ulster tonight.

Valid from 0600 11/8/08 to 0600 12/8/08

Source: Met Eireann

Warning of further heavy rain

Met Éireann has warned of further heavy rain today and overnight into early tomorrow. The meteorological service's weather warning, which was issued at 6am this morning is in place for 24 hours. Met Éireann warned that between 25 and 50mm of rain could fall in parts of the country during this period. Rain is expected to be heaviest in the western half of the country today and in Munster, Leinster and Ulster tonight. A clean-up operation is taking place in parts of the country following heavy flooding over the weekend. Areas in Dublin and Kildare were seriously flooded with the N3 and N1 roads closed for some time. In the 24-hour period from midnight on Friday, 76mm of rainfall was recorded at Dublin Airport.

Source: RTE News.

darkman2

There may be trouble ahead for the Dublin area particularly those hit by Saturday's floods

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn124.png

Kippure

Looks like its about to really kick off here on the east coast

rc28

:eek:
Just arrived back from a couple of days abroad to hear all about those floods on Saturday. Typical, I'm out of the country when the only interesting weather event of the year takes place. Can't believe some of the pics of blanchardstown/n3. It reminded me of the chaos during the 2002 floods.
Raining heavily here still.
http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=n_AQq1uApGc
http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=AXnZTnxVjas
http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=ToTW2FvjUIg
http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=SXCuN8Yv8Do
http://ie.youtube.com/watch?v=qJxOFCEkWmo

Snowbie

Looking at the half hour 5min loop on radar and it seems the heavier stuff just might? stay offshore and spare us in Dublin.

Supercell

Wonder what its like in West Dublin, i think they have a pretty high chance of renewed flooding.
5.6mm here since midnight and rate increased temporarily as it usually does before a front passes. Should stop pretty soon .

darkman2

It may well be that the rain was just light enough not to cause severe problems. Though I suspect there was some renewed flooding. We are very lucky though as Snowbie points out. Much heavier stuff off shore. Ulster wont be so lucky.

Snowbie

9.4mm fell before midnight and 8.8mm after. Rain stopped at around 2am.

Danno

10.4mm from that rain front yesterday.

Todays power showers have contributed 7.9mm so far. Looks like we were spared the worst here as roads further south nr Freshford were quite flooded.

darkman2

Unsupprisingly there has been some renewed flooding in Dublin due to the ground saturation


http://www.rte.ie/news/2008/0812/weather.html



There is no let up yet. It continues raining and whilst dryer tonight - tomorrow looks like more of the same again with the risk of a thunderstorm.

Dirk Gently

coming down heavy the past 30 minutes in north dublin. Shores not really taking the water and road outside starting to flood again. Noticed while cycling home from work today that water levels around the tolka were already still high from saturdays flood. I suspect another hour or so of this will see the roads down there flood again.

rc28

:eek:
Read this from meteireann;

"But it will be over the weekend that the rain will get very heavy once more. During Saturday another Atlantic depression will come close to Ireland. That will give more torrential rain, cloudbursts and downpours and lead on to more flooding."

Obviously this will change before then but they are probably trying to cover their backs after last weekend's disaster! I have actually never heard the met use the word 'cloudburst' before.

rc28

Saw that the n3 has been closed again on the news- looks just as bad as Saturday

darkman2

Snowbie - can you please change the title of this thread to reflect the ongoing serious flood risk in Leinster for tomorrow, Thursday and the weekend?

shamwari

I drove along the M1 south from Drogheda just over an hour ago. The rain was torrential but looked to be clearing up from the west. There was spot flooding in a lot of places. The radio said that the N3 was closed, as well as the road from Carlingford to Newry. Apparently noth Louth and South Down took as pasting in the past 24 hrs.

Just got this from the RTE News website:

Latest flood traffic reports

There is an open manhole at the Drumcondra/Home Farm Rd junction. Dublin City Council are en route to the scene. Motorists are advised to take care on approach.

There is also an open manhole outbound on the Ballymun Rd outside the library. The bus Lane flooded as a result. Motorists are being advised to take extreme care on approach.


The N3 at Blanchardstown is closed between the two exit slips which access the Blanchardstown Town Centre.

Traffic is being diverted around the flooded area via the Snugborough and Mulhuddart interchanges.


The left lane of the M50 Southbound at J5 Finglas is now closed due to flooding.

There is a lot of surface water on the M50 at J4 Ballymun in both directions. There is flooding at the Strawberry beds approaching Lucan and on Tandys Lane in Lucan village.

There is also flooding from the Old Swords Rd to Coolock Lane, and at the Griffith Ave Ballymun Rd junction. Heavy flooding is being reported on River rd in Finglas.

Surface water and debris on the Killinarden side of the Killtipper Rd at a very bad bend is causing delays so motorists are advised to avoid if possible.

On the Naas Rd outbound there is surface water after Newlands Cross and at the Kylemore Rd junction.

There is also flooding in Donnybrook on Eglinton Rd. In the city centre there is flooding at Westland Row, Lincoln Place.

In Louth, the R173 Carlingford to Newry Rd is flooded and impassable. Motorists should divert via Dundalk.

M50 disruption

Motorists have been advised of some disruption to traffic overnight to facilitate the upgrading of the M50.

As part of the upgrade programme, N4 outbound traffic wishing to access the M50 northbound & southbound will be diverted to the Liffey Valley junction and onto the N4 inbound from where they can access the M50.

This disruption will end at 6am tomorrow.

And from 9pm tonight, the M50 southbound on ramp from the N7 outbound will be closed with traffic diverted via the N7 outbound onto the M50 southbound on loop from the Monastery Lane/N7 junction

Snowbie

Rain from 00-24z (Tuesday) total rain was 24.3mm
20z-00z (Monday) 6.1mm bringing the total to 30.4mm from that threat.

darkman2

Well over 100mm at Dublin Airport so far since Saturday. Thats only going to increase and with the ground completely saturated tomorrow and Thursday are very worrying indeed ahead of the weekend which promises far more rain atm. I think the worst may be yet to come from a flooding perspective.


PS.....thread title....?

Snowbie

Yea no bother.

darkman2

Thanks!



Best to keep people updated cause we all missed Saturday's 'event';)

Snowbie

Did you, away, work? Missed a show i tell you, not to rub it in or anything.

Mint Sauce

not surprised at this flooding tbh, now this is based on observations, was in dublin today, started raining heavy about 4 or so, was still raining when i was leaving it on the train at 7, parts of the grand canal was level with the tow path outside of the city, further down the line, feilds flooded that were not in the morning

darkman2

Snowbie wrote: »

Did you, away, work? Missed a show i tell you, not to rub it in or anything.

No I saw it all alright. Was at home. I mean nobody forcasted it. I only realised something interesting was stewing at about 2pm.

Snowbie

My bad, Gotcha, and boy did it stew.

darkman2

Main flood risk areas this morning are in the Southwest so some breathing space for the Dublin area and other Leinster towns. However looks like rain will arrive by late afternoon or evening over North Leinster and Dublin with some downpours again. Remains to be seen how heavy the rain is going to be but anything even moderate and persistent will lead to more problems like yesterday in local areas.


Other prone areas are parts of South Ulster and Connaught (Its been raining consistently now in the west overnight).

Deep Easterly

Looks like Claremorris is receiving it's fair share of rain today. Has already clocked up 27.2 mm since 10.00am today:

Hourly Breakdown:

10am-11am: 6.4mm
11am-12pm: 4.0mm
12pm-1.pm: 4.2mm
1.pm-2.pm: 3.6mm
2.pm-3.pm: 3.2mm
3.pm-4.pm: 5.8mm

Just a few miles southeast, and the total from 10.00am is a paltry 13.0mm :rolleyes:

nacho libre

you'll never learn paddy 1:p

Deep Easterly

It has already been mentioned, but it does look increasingly likely that the coming weekend will see more bands of rain sweeping the country. Hard to pinpoint which area will bear the brunt, so at this early stage all areas could be at risk of some heavy rain.

Latest fax chart for Saturday 12.00pm:



Active front passing through with another low moving over the country. If you are going anywhere, bring the brolly just in case.

Not just the weekend however, Monday is also looking pretty disturbed at this stage; in fact, it looks as if the south of the country is under threat for some pretty serious rain, especially from Sunday night onwards:



As usual, all subject to change in later runs due to the high amount of uncertainty within the models lately. But one to watch anyways.

nacho libre

I wonder will this August end up being wetter than the August of 1986:pac:

Deep Easterly

nacho libre wrote: »

I wonder will this August end up being wetter than the August of 1986:pac:

Already has in parts of the east, and with more to come, this August is likely to go down in the record books for that region I'm thinking.

nacho libre

Deep Easterly wrote: »

Already has in parts of the east, and with more to come, this August is likely to go down in the record books for that region I'm thinking.

i hadn't thought of that, august 86 was probably wetter overall. whereas we'll probably find by the end of this month the northwest was much drier(bar todays exceptionally heavy rain)

Snowbie

Add another 7.9mm for today.
145.5mm for the month to date.

There is pure mud flowing off the green close by to my house. Rain has indeed churned up the ground like a plough around here. Have never witnessed the likes of rainfall and it's severity over a short space of time (couple of weeks) living around these parts all my life.

Attention now turns to Friday night into Saturday morning. SW according to GFS 18z output looks in for a pasting and spreads right up through the country later into Saturday morning. Not set in stone yet and time frame will alter in later runs but it can be certain a lot more rain is unleashed from the heavens this weekend.

Supercell

Connaught seems to be playing catchup in the rainfall stakes looking at the radar all day, must be some massive totals especially in hilly areas.

darkman2

Looks like there will be some respite today and during the day on Friday. There will still be some rain but not as significant as recent days. Friday night onward though is a different story and I can see why the Met are mentioning it so much. They reckon between 20 and 30mm could fall on Friday night and Saturday leading to flooding. I think it could be more then that and with the water table so high countrywide atm its a bit of a concern especially for those areas hit by flooding the last few days. Then another system coming in for Sunday and Monday. All looks a little ominous. Will post charts after the 12hrs GFS run.

darkman2

Tomorrow afternoon and evening


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn304.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3011.png

Thundery showers midlands and east

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn308.png
http://cirrus.netweather.tv/gfsimages/gfs.20080814/12/30/ukwind.png

Not likely to be severe but a risk none the less.

---

Tomorrow night

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn364.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn424.png


Heavy persistant rain in all areas


Saturday

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn484.png

More heavy rain in the East and North


EDIT: Weather watch already out for NI

Thursday 14 August WEATHER WATCH Further heavy rain will affect Northern Ireland, southwest Scotland, northwest England and west Wales on Saturday. Up to 50mm is possible.

JanuarySnowstor

Well I've just scanned through the 12z runs and being honest I'm surprised it's so quiet on here.
They show severe flooding to me with persistent rain or thundery showers.
A repeat of last Saturday is very likely esp for parts of Dublin
The weather will be the main news story come Monday!

darkman2

In Northern Ireland they are talking about another 60mm of rain potentially tomorrow night and Saturday. If we get near that in Dublin then there will be far worse problems then last Saturday. The ground was not saturated prior to Saturday's event..........

Snowbie

GFS is plotting two seperate events for Firday evening into Saturday morning and Sunday.

The first all areas can expect some large totals, atm most likely the west NW and NI at highest risk.

On Sunday (again atm), the southern half of the country with highest risk.

DM, i think we should rename this thread sometime tomorrow to cover exact location when we are more sure?

cian1500ww

Will Saturday be the worst in terms of the amount of rainfall ?

darkman2

Snowbie wrote: »

DM, i think we should rename this thread sometime tomorrow to cover exact location when we are more sure?

Think its required alright to avoid any confusion and this could amount to an 'event' in its own right. Dont want to over do it of course. Some areas may get away lightly. The charts atm suggest that whilst further North is most at risk from rainfall - in reality everywhere will see some heavy rain and parts of Dublin are particularly vulnerable to flooding atm. The UKMO this evening is far worse for the East then the GFS.


So its basically tomorrow evening onward.....

Neamhshuntasach

From the charts does anybody know if we're gonna get lashed out of it on the hill tomorrow? i'm hoping for a dry spell between 4 and 6 over croker

JanuarySnowstor

Sorry, but going by the charts you will be completely lashed on at that time.
In fact there is a real risk of the game being abandoned / cancelled..............and the worst part is I aint joking
If I were you I'd pay extra and try get into the upper stands or else wear raingear

thomasj

What are the chances of it raining as per the levels laid out in the charts? would the charts be an accurate reflection and is the predicted rainfall not subject to change as it happens?

sorry if the questions sound stupid i'm new to this!

nilhg

Neamhshuntasach wrote: »

From the charts does anybody know if we're gonna get lashed out of it on the hill tomorrow? i'm hoping for a dry spell between 4 and 6 over croker

Metcheck pull their data directly from GFS and is a good way of getting an idea of the likely rain, geep an eye on it though as it is still likely to change.

thomasj wrote: »

What are the chances of it raining as per the levels laid out in the charts? would the charts be an accurate reflection and is the predicted rainfall not subject to change as it happens?

sorry if the questions sound stupid i'm new to this!

I'm no expert but my feeling is that the models predict frontal rain quite well, but its almost impossible to predict showers, especially thundery ones.

thomasj

The Warning is out - met office

Issued at 15 August 2008 - 12:30
Warning of Severe Weather.
Valid from 1500 Friday 15/8/08 to 1200 Monday 18/8/08.

It will be very unsettled and changeable this weekend, with rainbelts set to move in across the country from the Atlantic from time to time, to be followed in turn by brighter more showery weather. The rainfall from the rain-belts and indeed some of the showers, will be heavy, with some thundery downpours at times. Totals in excess of 50mm are likely in some places, with parts of the East, North and West most at risk. The water table remains high and some further flooding can be expected.
An especially active rainbelt will move in off the Atlantic later today and tonight and will affect much of the country on Saturday, and so this is when the heaviest rainfall episode is likely to occur, with Leinster ( including Dublin), Ulster and parts of Connacht especially at risk.

Snowbie

One thing is certain is that the rain will be widespread later tonight and tomorrow. How heavy the rain is important but it's how long it is going to rain for is more significant. In fact most of the day the west NW N and east look like getting heavier bursts while all areas will be under cloud and rain for most if not all tomorrow Saturday.

GFS has been consistent so far but 18Z tonight(rolls out at 2230) should paint a better picture later, on intensity etc.

TheGreenGiant

i hope the match ain't canceled in Croker for the big game tomorrow! we are looking at a very wet day all in all

Neamhshuntasach

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Sorry, but going by the charts you will be completely lashed on at that time.
In fact there is a real risk of the game being abandoned / cancelled..............and the worst part is I aint joking
If I were you I'd pay extra and try get into the upper stands or else wear raingear

I guess i'll be bringing a rain jacket with me so. The upper stands don't compete with the atmosphere of the hill for me. It just means a quick stop home to get changed as opposed to my usual straight out on the sauce.

Kippure

Weather warnings have gone. By monday ireland will be one big puddle.