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Thunderstorms and Convective Potential

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    #182
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    A triangular zone from about Galway to Laois to Meath appears to have the best chance for heavy rain or severe thunder.

    Keep talking M.T, I like it!


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    #183
    darkman2
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 8,632 ✭✭✭darkman2


    M.T. Cranium wrote: »
    After looking at the latest model run, I would say a very good chance for heavy thundery rain if not thunderstorms as such, across central Ireland around 1700-2300h with development beginning southwest of Dublin and moving generally to the northwest. A triangular zone from about Galway to Laois to Meath appears to have the best chance for heavy rain or severe thunder.

    What is encouraging on the prog maps -- there is a cutoff low rapidly forming near Cornwall between 12z and 00z later Monday and this should energize the frontal boundary drifting northwards. Very warm east wind flow into northern half of Ireland during the day will create the unstable conditions required for lift.

    Thanks for that. Fingers crossed over here!:) Been a very long time since a 'severe' thunder event - August 1998 I think. The charts do look encouraging. However there may be cause for some concern regarding rainfall totals particularly southern UK and perhaps Eastern Ireland. Will have to be watched closely. Flash flooding could be a possibility.


    Edit UKMO looking good tomorrow afternoon http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U24-594.GIF


    and tomorrow night.......http://www.meteociel.com/ukmo/run/U36-594.GIF


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    #184
    Deep Easterly
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,150 ✭✭✭Deep Easterly


    UKMO update:

    http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm423.gif

    Potential for a thundery band to move up over the country on Monday evening/night continues, though fragmenting as it moves further north and west. East and south still the favoured spots, while the west will depend on convective building.

    Will see if ECMWF/Hirlam confirms this in a while.


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    #185
    Snowbie
    Registered Users Posts: 5,033 ✭✭✭Snowbie


    Away the last couple of nights and the risk continues for Monday night.
    Will start a new thread from the 18Z output but atm a thunder event is possible from Monday evening onwards from an elevated storm risk. (Elevated meaning high based storms). Unusual and rare on these shores but has happened before.

    Also new model released by NW using a 0-12km range and every hour data opposed to GFS 0-60km range and 3 hrly data. Very interesting and accurate model using similar graphics. GFS an american model never quite took terrain etc into context but this new model does.


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